# Running Against Gov. Etch-A-Sketch **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 21, 2012, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416 "2012-03-21T16:24:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2012, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/41 "2012-03-22T17:44:50Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > I certainly agree with what you and others have said in this thread that what is important in the long run is the narrative about a candidate that is built up from a number of seemingly small and often marginal, false, or irrelevant incidents. In fact that’s the real job of both campaigns, to create and control a narrative about both sides. Smart campaigns capitalize on these fluffs and gaffes. When people talk about bad campaigns they often really mean bad as this, even when they don’t say so explicitly. > > So I guess my difference is that I continue to see independents as much more of a wild card. [The Pew Political Typology](http://www.people-press.org/2011/05/04/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology/) is significant. (Once again, the actual findings for these numbers do not come from the quiz on the Internet. That’s just a party game. The real questionnaire is much longer.) > > Pew has a category it calls disaffecteds, which are broadly similar to my inattentives. They’re 11%. But it also has a category of Bystanders at 10%, who are not registered voters. They have two other categories of Mostly Independent, Libertarians and Post-Moderns, who comprise 22% of the population. > > We immediately run into trouble when we try to apply these figures to presidential elections. Something obviously doesn’t fit. The percentage of the eligible population who doesn’t vote is a full 45%. Even if you counted every Bystander, large percentages of the other types don’t vote. And with 37% Mostly Democratic and only 20% Mostly Republican, Democrats should win handily always. > > You get better numbers by looking at the registered voter column. Republican-leaning types register higher than the percentage of the population, Democratic-leaning types lower. And the Hard-Pressed Democrats, especially males, are much more Republican than that indicates, I think. If you give Republicans Staunch Conservatives, Main Street Republican, Libertarians, and half of Hard-Pressed Democrats you get 42.5% and give the Democrats New Coalition Democrats, Post-Moderns, Solid Liberals, and other half of Hard-Pressed Democrats, you get 46.5%. Sure these are fast and loose generalizations, but that’s pretty much in line with the last election. I’m with you so far. I’ve got some quibbles, e.g. I expect that many if not most of those ‘hard-pressed Democrats’ are blacks and Hispanics. But let’s just let that slide for the moment, unless it turns out to matter. > [@](#): > > And that leaves the Disaffecteds. We already know the results for at least 40 states. Nobody talks about more than 10 states being in play. Who swings the swing states? There will be some slippage in the bases, because there always is. Romney is getting his votes from the more urban and therefore moderate to liberal areas in every state he has won. He’ll have a hard time winning those in November - unless there is a bad economy or some other factor he can spin a narrative about Obama being an incompetent or at least ineffective president. He’ll have the money to try to make that case stick. > > For me the rest - the biggest part - of the uncertainly comes from those Disaffecteds. We know very little about them yet. > > > [@](#): > > > > People at the bottom of the heap in this country tend to be way underrepresented at the polls. This “downscale and cynical” group may be 11% of the population, but they’re probably a much smaller fraction of those who vote. For instance, in 2010 ([see Table 7 at this link](http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/p20/2010/tables.html)), about 24.5% of those with family incomes of \<20K voted, while about 57.5% of those with family incomes of \>75K voted. The ‘disaffecteds’ might be more like 6% of those who actually vote. > > The people claiming to be independents in the primaries are highly unlikely to be Disaffecteds - there’s no evidence that they turn out this early. I think you’ve misunderstood. These aren’t exit polls, these are just your standard-issue polls of the population as a whole. They don’t have to turn out; they just have to pick up the phone when the pollster calls. And they certainly don’t have to have any affiliation with the GOP or any likelihood to vote in its primaries. These independents may or may not be ‘true independents’ (probably mostly not, because that’s a pretty small breed) but rather they’re people who call themselves independents for whatever reason. > [@](#): > > For me, nothing short of a meteor striking before the conventions will be truly meaningful. The real race starts after the last convention bump. I disagree. There’s still a certain amount of play left in the race in the homestretch, but the contours are set earlier, often to the extent that the race has been over before Labor Day. How much earlier varies. Kerry was doomed before the last of the confetti hit the ground at the GOP convention in 2004; the race was over, not just starting. By June 1984, there was nothing Mondale could have done to win in November. This year, the GOP has been systematically alienating different groups. Hispanics, now women, and to a lesser but real extent young people. They will need to do really, really well among white males, or they’re scrod. And this will limit the upside of his white male support. He’ll still win that demographic handily, just not nearly as handily as he’ll need to. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2012, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/42 "2012-03-22T19:19:21Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I disagree. There’s still a certain amount of play left in the race in the homestretch, but the contours are set earlier, often to the extent that the race has been over before Labor Day. How much earlier varies. Kerry was doomed before the last of the confetti hit the ground at the GOP convention in 2004; the race was over, not just starting. By June 1984, there was nothing Mondale could have done to win in November. 1984 was a totally different political universe and even 2004 had much less of the current political schisms. More important, though, is that both races were against incumbent presidents. Incumbent presidents are very hard to beat. Neither Mondale nor Kerry had as much money to spend as the Republicans: it’s a new thing in my generation that Democrats have had monetary parity or superiority. Reagan was Reagan and Bush II was still a war president and 9/11 was large in peoples’ memories. The only thing Democrats had in those elections were false hopes. Carter had huge foreign policy problems and Bush I had huge domestic economy issues. Both were likely losers ahead of time. The way to bet based on those experiences is that Obama wins. He will have plenty of money, his foreign policy makes it a non-issue, and the economy is recovering. But the 2010 Congressional election was a game-changer in that one sector of the electorate, what Pew calls Staunch Republicans, increased their turnout over the 2008 presidential elections. I believe that’s unique. A charismatic candidate whom they could back whole-heartedly would do very, very well. Romney is obviously not that candidate. (Excuse me while I go out a grab a Martian.) On the other hand, the anti-Obama hatred among that group is like nothing I’ve seen since the left hated Nixon in 1972. But that group wasn’t organized and opted out of the election. The modern right is highly organized and Romney or not highly motivated and is disproportionately made up of factions that vote. That will keep it close. If the right opts out, then it’s an Obama landslide. I can’t believe that will happen. Republicans will pull together, hold their noses, and work like fury to defeat Obama. On another hand, it might never come to enough and that might be apparent before the conventions. Since I’m running out of hands, I’m going to continue to wait for the conventions. In 2008 it was clear that McCain didn’t get enough of a push even though the polls showed him ahead for a bit after the convention. He shouldn’t have had a chance at all as the public sentiment was clearly tired of Bush. That it was that close shows that other factors were at work. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2012, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/43 "2012-03-22T21:26:55Z")
The Ohio Art Company, maker of the Etch A Sketch, closed today up 141%. It opened at $4 a share and closed at 9.65. Earlier in the day it was up 300% at $12. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2012, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/44 "2012-03-22T22:07:14Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > The Ohio Art Company, maker of the Etch A Sketch, closed today up 141%. It opened at $4 a share and closed at 9.65. Earlier in the day it was up 300% at $12. Romney’s already saving the economy! ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2012, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/45 "2012-03-22T23:21:56Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > The Ohio Art Company, maker of the Etch A Sketch, closed today up 141%. It opened at $4 a share and closed at 9.65. Earlier in the day it was up 300% at $12. Wow. Wife and I both laughed out loud. Thank goodness we already bought the kids Etch-A-Sketchs before the price went up! ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2012, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/46 "2012-03-23T00:58:21Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Romney’s already saving the economy! Yeah, China’s economy, since that’s where the Etch-a-Sketch is now made. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2012, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/47 "2012-03-23T01:37:25Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Incumbent presidents are very hard to beat. Neither Mondale nor Kerry had as much money to spend as the Republicans: it’s a new thing in my generation that Democrats have had monetary parity or superiority. Incumbency gives you a 2.7 point advantage in the popular vote, which is a lot but not overwhelming. The average spread since 1976 has been 3.6 points after all. Combine the election year economy and incumbency and you’ve told most of the story. What’s left is residual effects. And those residual effects acted _in favor_ of both Mondale and Kerry. They were far better candidates than conventional wisdom indicates. In other words after controlling for the economy and incumbency Mondale was up by 2.9 points and Kerry was up by 3.4 points. Dukkakis and McGovern, OTOH, were weak candidates. > **[Ray C. Fair](https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/)** ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2012, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/48 "2012-03-23T02:30:15Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Incumbency gives you a 2.7 point advantage in the popular vote, which is a lot but not overwhelming. The average spread since 1976 has been 3.6 points after all. > > Combine the election year economy and incumbency and you’ve told most of the story. What’s left is residual effects. And those residual effects acted _in favor_ of both Mondale and Kerry. They were far better candidates than conventional wisdom indicates. In other words after controlling for the economy and incumbency Mondale was up by 2.9 points and Kerry was up by 3.4 points. > > Dukkakis and McGovern, OTOH, were weak candidates. > [http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/](http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/) Your link doesn’t go to anything useful beyond Ray Fair’s website. But he’s been doing econometric analysis/predictions of presidential elections for a while. Econometrics has fallen out of favor with better methods becoming available. And Fair is not particularly accurate. In [August 2004](http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/15/magazine/15QUESTIONS.html) (post convention) he predicted that Bush would get 57.5% of the two-party vote. He actually got 51.2%. Other than the obvious of getting Bush right as the winner, that’s egregious. And weirdly, his predictions for the 2008 election got [worse and worse as the election drew closer](http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2008/index2.htm) even though the economy was much worse in 2008 than in 2006, although he certainly should be given credit for the advance forecasts. [Nate Silver](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/22/predicting-the-economy-and-obamas-re-election-chances/#) discusses some of his reservations in this column. I simply don’t believe that the effectiveness of a candidate can be parsed out to the percent by an econometric model. Heck, he admits that his equations have a 2 percentage point margin of error, which is how he terms his [2000 prediction of too close to call a success](http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote/vot1000.htm). What does he say for this year? > [@](#): > > If the economy suddenly starts to boom—say 5 or 6 percent growth—Obama would be predicted to win by a comfortable amount. If the economy suddenly goes into another recession—say minus 5 or 6 percent growth—the Republicans would be predicted to win by a comfortable amount. As of this writing the economy in 2012 looks like it will be ok, but not great, which means a close election—essentially too close to call. I’ve been saying exactly that and all I do is stick my head out the window. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2012, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/49 "2012-03-23T03:57:49Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I wonder how true this is holding in the age of Facebook and YouTube, though. It doesn’t take long for “Hey, look at all these things Romney said just a few months ago!” to spread through the tubes. It went from CNN to YouTube to NYT in one day! Now until Election Day, everything that Romney says will be framed in an Etch-A-Sketch. Excellent. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2012, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/50 "2012-03-23T04:10:51Z")
Errors in economic forecasts lead to errors in the projected popular vote. But I’m not using economic forecasts – I’m using the actual economic data. And when that is used, the within sample 2004 error is only 3.4 points. (Ideally, I would run Fair’s regression using all data but 2004 to calculate the out of sample error, but I doubt whether there would be much qualitative difference, as the errors have not exploded over time). > [@Exapno Mapcase](#): > > I simply don’t believe that the effectiveness of a candidate can be parsed out to the percent by an econometric model. Oh, neither do I. I believe that “Everything other than the economy and incumbency” can be parsed out though. So in 2004 Kerry beat the model by 3.4 points. That could have been due to Kerry’s awesomeness, GWBush’s lameness, an unpopular war, anything other than the economy or incumbency or most likely a combination of the preceding. What you don’t want to do though is just look at the electoral spread – you want to control for incumbency and the economy in some way. [1] Anyway, if you want to forecast the 2012 results, there are better models, though I wouldn’t say that Fair’s is bad. Fair doesn’t include approval ratings for example, because he’s trying to ascertain the effect of the economy on elections rather than building an optimal forecast framework. For the latter, see Nate Silver and maybe intrade. [1] There are subtle issues that I’m ignoring. These include specification error and (worse) varying parameters over time. The regression covers 1916-2008. I’m surprised the variance of the residuals has not varied systematically over time. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2012, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/51 "2012-03-23T16:31:22Z")
Eric Fehrnstrom [tries to defuse the situation with humor](http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-etch-a-sketch-tweet-20120322,0,6077686.story): > [@](#): > > Thursday afternoon, Fehrnstrom took to Twitter to make light of the uproar. Linking to a story about how the Etch-A-Sketch parent company, Ohio Art, has seen its stock price tick up, he joked: “Psst, I’ll mention Mr. Potato Head next. Buy Hasbro.” Oh, yeah, Mr. Potato Head (the toy you can change to look like whatever you want by swapping out features) would be _just_ the metaphor you want to represent your guy… :rolleyes:😛 ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2012, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/52 "2012-03-23T16:55:57Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > You misunderstand, I think. The quotes will still be available for use in attacks. It’s just that a new effort will be required to make people aware of them and make them stick. I don’t think it will take much of an effort at all to make this stick. The meme is already out there and it is looking for a catchphrase or mascot and this may be it. > [@CaveMike](#): > > I think most thoughtful[sup]\*[/sup] people will reach my interpretation. I don’t think so. Considering the context, I think you are reading this in the light most favorable to Romney. > [@](#): > > My mistake, I meant 2008 – Clinton and Obama. There was a lot of noise that Clinton voters would stay home rather than vote for Obama after the nasty and prolonged primary fight. I’m sure the same noise would have been made if Clinton had won the nomination. People were not voting for Clinton because they disliked Obama, we were swamped with a deluge of great candidates and people had different preferences. That is not the case here. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2012, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/53 "2012-03-23T17:10:35Z")
In advertizing puffery, e.g. “This is the greatest product ever”, is perfectly acceptable and I think most of the people who defend Romney on the Etch a sketch comment are thinking along those lines. Tell any story to get elected. But in this case, I think there are deeper problems. It goes to Romney’s character and honesty. And it insults the intelligence of the voting public. In six+ months time they are expected to forget what Mitt has been saying for the last year and accept uncritically what will be spoon-fed to them between the convention and election?? The campaign can pooh-pooh the whole thing, but we now know what the plan has been all along. And it’s dishonest and cynical in the extreme. ---
**Author:** ![PacifistPorcupine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@PacifistPorcupine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PacifistPorcupine)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2012, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/54 "2012-03-23T17:34:07Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > The campaign can pooh-pooh the whole thing, but we now know what the plan has been all along. And it’s dishonest and cynical in the extreme. The thing is, I’m pretty sure everybody knew this was the plan all along. Or at least people paying attention. I remember a sketch on SNL form when Bush the Younger was running for president. bush the Elder was telling him how to run to the right in the primaries then dance back to the middle in the general election. The only difference this time is that Obama can have a commercial with primary Romney saying one thing, then a cut to PR guy saying Etch a Sketch, then cut to general election Romney saying something different. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2012, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/55 "2012-03-23T20:34:44Z")
> [@PacifistPorcupine](#): > > The thing is, I’m pretty sure everybody knew this was the plan all along. Or at least people paying attention. I remember a sketch on SNL form when Bush the Younger was running for president. bush the Elder was telling him how to run to the right in the primaries then dance back to the middle in the general election. The only difference this time is that Obama can have a commercial with primary Romney saying one thing, then a cut to PR guy saying Etch a Sketch, then cut to general election Romney saying something different. It’s a difference, but it’s not the only one. The existence of the Web has meant that average folks like us can verify that they were saying one thing at one time, and a very different thing later on, and can do it in five minutes at our computer. We used to be able to do this sort of thing, but it would have involved tedious hours over microfilm and microfiche at the library, so nobody ever did it. Now, you’ve really got to be who you are the whole time. That presents particular problems for Mitt, because there’s really no ‘who you are’ down there, as best as anyone can tell. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2012, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/56 "2012-03-24T04:43:22Z")
I wonder if Staples sells Etch-A-Sketches. ---
**Author:** ![IceQube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/dfb087/32.png) [@IceQube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IceQube)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2012, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/57 "2012-03-24T04:57:01Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > I wonder if Staples sells Etch-A-Sketches. Staples does sell the “That was easy” button, and I know for a fact the Obama campaign has an order for 5000 of these gadgets lined up to ship in November. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2012, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/58 "2012-03-24T23:27:06Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > It’s a difference, but it’s not the only one. The existence of the Web has meant that average folks like us can verify that they were saying one thing at one time, and a very different thing later on, and can do it in five minutes at our computer. We used to be able to do this sort of thing, but it would have involved tedious hours over microfilm and microfiche at the library, so nobody ever did it. > > Now, you’ve really got to be who you are the whole time. That presents particular problems for Mitt, because there’s really no ‘who you are’ down there, as best as anyone can tell. Mostly candidates doing that do it by emphasizing different things, not contradicting themselves. And Romney’s soundbite, as it were, is that he’s done it already, so he doesn’t get a pass. Bush swung to the center, but he didn’t start out from the center before the primaries, and he wasn’t running against anyone on his right. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2012, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/59 "2012-03-24T23:40:59Z")
> [@PacifistPorcupine](#): > > The only difference this time is that Obama can have a commercial with primary Romney saying one thing, then a cut to PR guy saying Etch a Sketch, then cut to general election Romney saying something different. Only if he has amateurs running his re-election campaign. The commercials won’t cut to a shot _of_ an etch-a-sketch. They’ll make the commercial _on_ a etch-a-sketch. "Open with a shot of an etch-a-sketch. As each section is read in voice-over, a picture of Romney is drawn on the screen. VO: On November 10, 2005\*, Mitt Romney said, (something liberal he said when he was Governor that will upset conservatives) The etch-a-sketch is shaken and the first image disappears. VO: On August 18, 2011, Mitt Romney said, (something conservative he said when he was in the primaries that will upset liberals) The etch-a-sketch is shaken and the second image disappears. VO: On September 5, 2012, Mitt Romney said, (something he’ll say during the campaign that will be different from both of the above) VO: What does Mitt Romney really believe? The etch-a-sketch is shaken a third time and this time the screen is left blank with nothing on it. \*I made up the dates at random for illustrative purposes. Campaign staffers will find actual dates and quotes to use. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2012, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416/60 "2012-03-25T01:16:10Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Only if he has amateurs running his re-election campaign. > > The commercials won’t cut to a shot _of_ an etch-a-sketch. They’ll make the commercial _on_ a etch-a-sketch. > > "Open with a shot of an etch-a-sketch. As each section is read in voice-over, a picture of Romney is drawn on the screen. > > VO: On November 10, 2005\*, Mitt Romney said, (something liberal he said when he was Governor that will upset conservatives) > > The etch-a-sketch is shaken and the first image disappears. > > VO: On August 18, 2011, Mitt Romney said, (something conservative he said when he was in the primaries that will upset liberals) > > The etch-a-sketch is shaken and the second image disappears. > > VO: On September 5, 2012, Mitt Romney said, (something he’ll say during the campaign that will be different from both of the above) > > VO: What does Mitt Romney really believe? > > The etch-a-sketch is shaken a third time and this time the screen is left blank with nothing on it. > > \*I made up the dates at random for illustrative purposes. Campaign staffers will find actual dates and quotes to use. Talk about framing the debate! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-against-gov-etch-a-sketch/616416.md?page=4)