# "Running Reduces Risk of Death" **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 29, 2014, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315 "2014-07-29T11:44:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Defective\_Detective](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d2c977/32.png) [@Defective\_Detective](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defective_Detective)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2014, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/1 "2014-07-29T11:44:47Z")
This article in Time magazine [http://time.com/3048568/even-if-youre-bad-at-it-running-reduces-risk-of-death/](http://time.com/3048568/even-if-youre-bad-at-it-running-reduces-risk-of-death/) is titled “Running Reduces Risk of Death.” It goes on to specify that “runners show a 30% lower risk of death from all causes.” News flash, Time magazine: EVERYBODY IS GOING TO DIE. NO ONE has a lower risk of death than anyone else. I see this kind of story all the time, and the title is usually the same. “These foods reduce your risk of death.” “These habits reduce your risk of death.” “Living in these cities will reduce your risk of death.” Um, no… it most definitely WILL NOT. Thanks for reading. I can’t figure out how to contact the author of the story, but I had to vent! ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2014, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/2 "2014-07-29T11:51:13Z")
It’s true! I’m not dead yet. Even after being hit by a truck. It just bounced off! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2014, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/3 "2014-07-29T12:06:50Z")
Typically the full statistic is “chance of death in a given time period.” ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2014, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/4 "2014-07-29T12:14:49Z")
The period during which one is being chased by tigers, for example. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2014, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/5 "2014-07-29T12:22:01Z")
Well yeah, “We are (all) going to DIE” (as Indiana Jones once said), and it’s kind of silly to suggest any intervention is going to change that inevitability. Quantify it as “premature death” (and define that rigorously) and you may have something, but it doesn’t make for a quick and sexy headline. The linked article describes a 45% lower risk of death from cardiovascular causes, but then I wonder what these people are going to wind up dying from - cancer? infection? being hit by buses in the crosswalk? Gimme good evidence that an intervention results in a boost in productive longevity and I’m up for it.\* I once got into an argument online with a promoter of a resveratrol supplement who suggested strongly that his product would produce 'super-longevity". That sounds nice, but an extra 20 years spent drooling in an extended care facility isn’t all that appealing. ---
**Author:** ![Defective\_Detective](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d2c977/32.png) [@Defective\_Detective](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defective_Detective)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2014, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/6 "2014-07-29T12:22:02Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > The period during which one is being chased by tigers, for example. I wish the author had specified this in her article, I’d have no problem with that. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2014, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/7 "2014-07-29T13:39:36Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > I once got into an argument online with a promoter of a resveratrol supplement who suggested strongly that his product would produce 'super-longevity". That sounds nice, but an extra 20 years spent drooling in an extended care facility isn’t all that appealing. If Alzheimer’s runs in your family, go ahead and live a sedentary life and eat a lot of bacon! If your grandmother was doing crossword puzzles at 99 - you could take up running! ---
**Author:** ![Defective\_Detective](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d2c977/32.png) [@Defective\_Detective](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defective_Detective)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2014, 9:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/8 "2014-07-31T09:24:53Z")
Here’s another one, it’s even worse: [5 Fruits and Veggies Per Day Can Lower Your Risk of Death | Time](http://time.com/3057931/fruits-vegetables-death-lower-risk/) “the daily consumption of fruits and vegetables to a reduced risk of mortality” “consuming fruits and vegetables is correlated with a lower risk of death” “Consuming more fruits and vegetables was significantly associated with a reduced risk of death from most causes.” My brain is melting… ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2014, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/9 "2014-07-31T11:46:32Z")
I think it’s just assumed that an intelligent reader will understand the context. Regular eating of vegetables won’t protect you from death by falling pianos, but it will (presumably) reduce your risk of death from certain causes that might include heart disease or bowel cancer. Do we really expect or require medical precision from magazine articles? If the article on the benefits of running was scientifically precise, would you then decide to take up running? ---
**Author:** ![lazybratsche](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ba8739/32.png) [@lazybratsche](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lazybratsche)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2014, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/10 "2014-07-31T13:28:30Z")
Meh. I’ve worked on longevity experiments\*, and statistics are all about risk of death _in a given time period_. For instance, the standard method of analyzing a survival data set is with the Kaplan-Meier estimator, which produces an estimate of the _hazard function_. This explicitly gives the risk of death at any given instant or window in time. Of course, the hazard function will tend to increase with time for most critters\*\*, and the cumulative hazard will approach and eventually reach 1. Anyways, it is entirely possible to have a data set where the hazard function of runners is always less than the hazard function of non-runners. That is, for all specific windows of time in the study, it’s possible that risk of death of non-runners is always higher than the risk of death for runners\*\*\*. This is often simplified as the “hazard ratio” which is what is reported in the OP’s link. Therefore, it’s not inaccurate to say “risk of death” is lower for runners, since the statement can be true for all specified time periods that anyone is interested in. It is hardly interesting to report that the cumulative risk at age 130 is exactly 1 for both runners and non-runners. \*of tiny model organisms. 47405 of 'em to be exact. \*\*But not all! There are some organisms that do not seem to have a set life span. Their risk of death, from disease and injury, is approximately constant for all time. \*\*\*That’s the “proportional hazards” assumption that’s baked into many of the statistical approaches. It’s not always true, but it’s often a good-enough assumption, and you can test for proportionality-of-hazards and use other methods if it’s not true. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Scrappy\_Hero\_Pup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ea5d25/32.png) [@Happy\_Scrappy\_Hero\_Pup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Scrappy_Hero_Pup)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2014, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/11 "2014-07-31T16:42:16Z")
…unless it’s from One Time. Then, running is fatal more often than not. Bad reporting, if you ask me. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2014, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/12 "2014-07-31T16:49:45Z")
I had the same problem with this thread: > **[Poll finds Obama is the worst president since World War II](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=727467)** > > A new poll is making the news. When asked who was the worst president since World War II, Obama “won” with 33% of the vote. Only 28% said George W Bush. Third place went to Nixon, with 13%. When asked who was the best president since WW2, 35%... Poll finds Obama is the worst president since World War II The Poll actually could “find” only that Obama was _considered_ the worst president since WWII, a poll can’t determine whether he actually was the worst or not. ---
**Author:** ![Sean\_Factotum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/50afbb/32.png) [@Sean\_Factotum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sean_Factotum)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2014, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/13 "2014-07-31T17:23:32Z")
Tell this to Jim Fixx. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2014, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/14 "2014-07-31T23:21:37Z")
> [@Sean\_Factotum](#): > > Tell this to Jim Fixx. Ah yes, the usual. Before he started running, Jim Fixx: Was 240 lbs, lost 60 lbs before his book came out. Smoked 2 packs a day. His father had a heart attack at the age of 35, died from his second at 43 At autopsy, Fixx was found to have severe atherosclerosis, e arteries blocked over 70&, one blocked at 99%. He was found to have had several small heart attacks before his fatal one. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2014, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/15 "2014-08-01T03:01:43Z")
Double meh. Understood by all but the densest that it means over some defined period of time. > [@Jackmannii](#): > > Gimme good evidence that an intervention results in a boost in productive longevity and I’m up for it. You really are not familiar with the huge body of data about that? I am surprised. Indeed the bigger impact of healthy lifestyle choices is on years of productive non-disabled life than on years living. [Recent post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17560431&postcount=5) in a recent thread. > [@](#): > > Previous post. Exercise strongly protective from the decline in physical and cognitve functioning associated with aging. > > Likewise for dietary factors, be it vegetable intake or more broadly a Mediterranean style diet or even by dairy/fruit/vegetable intake. > > The converse is also found. Unhealthy choices clearly are associated not only with shorter lives but poorer function in the years lived. The more poor choices made, the worse the function. > > Note these studies are from a variety of countries and cultures. Similar results in the UK, Japan … > > The reality is that even with unhealthy choices most people in developed countries with acsess to modern medical care can expect to live significantly longer than those of previous generations. Sure those with diabetes (yes, assuming treated) are likely to die significantly younger than those without (“[d]iabetes cuts about 8.5 years off the life span of the average 50-year-old compared to a 50-year-old without diabetes …”) but the greater impact is on the quality of the years you have (“patients with the disease are less likely to be employed and more likely to have other health problems, such as heart disease, depression, and disabilities that get in the way of normal life activities”). … ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2014, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/16 "2014-08-01T03:11:09Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > The period during which one is being chased by tigers, for example. And you don’t even have to run particularly fast. Just faster than the other guy. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2014, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/17 "2014-08-01T03:13:32Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > And you don’t even have to run particularly fast. Just faster than the other guy. But unless you’ve been doing some running, _you_ might be the other guy. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2014, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/18 "2014-08-01T03:16:30Z")
So trip the other bastard already. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2014, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/19 "2014-08-01T04:03:41Z")
This bothers me too. However a more honest headline like ‘Running will delay death by 2 years’ won’t sell as many magazines. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2014, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315/20 "2014-08-01T04:53:34Z")
[3 years.](http://content.onlinejacc.org/article.aspx?articleID=1891600) Actually [the NYT version](http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/30/running-just-5-minutes-a-day-has-long-lasting-benefits/?src=me) of this was to headline another aspect: > [@](#): > > Running 5 Minutes a Day Has Long-Lasting Benefits The fact that just a little bit of exercise produced significant benefits was their emphasis. The fact is pretty well established that the biggest benefit from exercise is gained in the move from inactive to any exercise. The open question that this adds to is trying to determine the dose response curve. How much exercise is how much better? And does it reach a point [where more is worse](http://www.abstractsonline.com/Plan/ViewAbstract.aspx?sKey=32617aef-b494-41b8-b2bc-3d49357a8976&cKey=984e0396-f663-4068-bbf3-1dc4023c17e1&mKey=%7bFCDB1C1C-280A-4DF1-95F8-2DAA9AB6A8BE%7d) with “with U-shaped mortality curves for distance, speed, and frequency”? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/running-reduces-risk-of-death/694315.md?page=2)