Well, YMMV on this but IMHO you just don’t get a good debate in here. Folks don’t spend the time to really cite their claims as much and talk more off the tops of their heads (or out various other orifices). Generally they try to either be witty or antagonistic/insulting (since its the Pit and all :)) or to simply score points. The word ‘fuck’ is practically mandatory. Thats just my impression though I don’t spend as much time in here as in GD so maybe I’m wrong.
Well, I don’t really see how the bald statement that ‘lives were saved’ could be in doubt from serious historians to be honest…depending on what assumptions we are making. I mean, its pretty much an established fact that there were something like 150,000 (from memory again…not bothering to look it up, that should be in the ball park) captured allied service men. They were dieing at something like 1000 a day…and the Japanese had said that if the home islands were invaded they were planning on killing them immediately. Perhaps ‘serious historians’ don’t take that threat seriously…I think the prisoners did.
Then there was the invasion itself. Assuming for a moment that an actual invasion would take place (seems likely to me, but my degree is in engineering :)), I think just the Japanese dead coupled with the allied prisoners dead would be more than both bombings…not including the allied invasion forces dead (and if the Soviets had joined the game then all bets are off what the casualties would be…you being a serious historian you are probably better aware than I am what casualties they suffered just taking Berlin). So, IF there was an invasion then I’d say its pretty clear that ‘lives were saved’ is at least a valid arguement.
If your point is there would be no invasion then I suppose I could see how you could claim that the ‘lives were saved’ thing wouldn’t hold water…but then we get into the debate as to how valid a claim that is. The Japanese were certainly taking the invasion seriously…if you’ve been to Japan the fortifications are still there. After the surrender the allies found caves full of artillary, mines, planes, coves full of small suicide boats, even two man suicide subs…all in preparation for the invasion. The allies were also taking it pretty seriously…the US was moving its troops from Europe, staging logistics supplies, building air strips, concentrating fleets…and the Soviets were moving their own forces into position to get a piece of the pie. All those folks thought there was going to be the mother of all battles for Japan…were they all wrong and the Japanese poised to either collapse or surrender? Collapse seems unlikely to me, at least military collapse or revolution. That leaves how serious (and credible) were their surrender plans…and how seriously were they taken by the allies?
From what I’ve read in the past, while its true that some elements of the Japanese government were seeking a back channel conduit to begin talking about peace, the majority of the pro-military factions (who were in control) were adamently opposed…certainly they were adamently opposed to unconditional surrender which was what was being demanded. Again from memory the terms being floated by even the anti-military factions concerning peace were completely unacceptable to the US and the allies…so to me its kind of a moot point to even bring it up, unless I’m grossly mistaken on this. Certainly I don’t think the allies were taking the various noises about Japanese surrender too seriously…and based on their preparations I don’t think the key leaders in Japan were taking them too seriously either.
-XT