# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")
It appears that a Russian invasion of Ukraine, specifically the Crimea, is ongoing, or at least the [Ukrainian Interior Ministry](http://lenta.ru/news/2014/02/28/belbek/) thinks so, and the Russian Parliament is readying laws to [incorporate new territory into the Russian Federation easily](http://lenta.ru/news/2014/02/28/cometous/). A [law](http://lenta.ru/news/2014/02/28/passports/) has also just been passed allowing Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship almost immediately. [Unconfirmed video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TVyPiHVZ1A) of Russian MIL attack helicopters being flown to Sevastopol airport. [Ukrainian ministry talking of an attempted naval blockade.](http://dpsu.gov.ua/ua/about/news/news_3401.htm). [Unconfirmed photograph of road blockade leading to airport in Sevastopol.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bhi1bFrCAAAxPpz.jpg)[BBC journalists reporting Russian troops on the move in Sevastopol and another photo of the Russian warship making its way into Balaclava Bay.](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26382328) How will the West respond? Ukraine has a large border with Poland, an EU member. Russia also signed a memorandum with the UK and US in 1994 vowing to respect Ukraine’s integrity. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2 "2014-02-28T15:43:17Z")
Although the situations aren’t the same, I imagine it’ll be largely the same way they responded to the South Ossetia crisis It seems vanishingly improbable that the West will put its own troops on the ground/ships in the harbour. That leaves diplomacy and I doubt that the West has any actual leverage to use here. Russia can cut off gas; the EU is pretty unlikely to cut off the gas money. If Ukraine manages to send in its own troops to restore control over roads, airports and sea lanes then I’m sure they’ll receive strong backing from the West. But I don’t know how likely that is, given the chaotic situation and the evident ambivalence of the local Ukrainians. ---
**Author:** ![Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/3 "2014-02-28T15:44:06Z")
Other than some wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth, there’s not much the West can do. ---
**Author:** ![Lion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/57b2e6/32.png) [@Lion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lion)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/4 "2014-02-28T15:49:19Z")
The US has already painted a “red line” (saying that invasion of Ukraine would be a “grave mistake”), but this seems strangely similar to the administration’s bumbling response to Syria. My guess would be some minor diplomatic actions and loud talk from the administration. Now, if the new Ukrainian parliament dissolves the Kharkiv Pact or a civil war breaks out, there’s no telling. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/5 "2014-02-28T15:54:50Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > How will the West respond? Ukraine has a large border with Poland, an EU member. Russia also signed a memorandum with the UK and US in 1994 vowing to respect Ukraine’s integrity. Much like it did to the annexation of territory in Georgia: Denounce the actions loudly but do nothing of substance. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/6 "2014-02-28T15:58:30Z")
> [@Lion](#): > > The US has already painted a “red line” (saying that invasion of Ukraine would be a “grave mistake”), but this seems strangely similar to the administration’s bumbling response to Syria. In what way is that a “red line”? If I said to you,\*\* Lion\*\*, holding up a 7-11 would be a “grave mistake”. Would I be drawing a “red line” as well? ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/7 "2014-02-28T16:18:39Z")
The US has no cards, I’m embarrassed Kerry asked the Russians to leave Georgia. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/8 "2014-02-28T16:36:44Z")
> [@Lion](#): > > The US has already painted a “red line” (saying that invasion of Ukraine would be a “grave mistake”), but this seems strangely similar to the administration’s bumbling response to Syria. But that ended well enough. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/9 "2014-02-28T16:43:20Z")
> [@Sitnam](#): > > The US has no cards, I’m embarrassed Kerry asked the Russians to leave Georgia. It’s damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Say something strident without ability or intent to back it up and look like a fool. Say nothing because you know there’s nothing you can do and look callous or complicit. ---
**Author:** ![Bozuit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/edb3f5/32.png) [@Bozuit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bozuit)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/10 "2014-02-28T16:50:46Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > How will the West respond? Ukraine has a large border with Poland, an EU member. Perhaps even more importantly, Poland is a NATO member, along with Romania, Slovakia and Hungary which also all border Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Lion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/57b2e6/32.png) [@Lion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lion)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/11 "2014-02-28T17:39:06Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But that ended well enough. Did it? It might have been that kind of confused, hot and cold response that makes Putin confident enough to employ this type of brinkmanship. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/12 "2014-02-28T17:49:24Z")
> [@Bozuit](#): > > Perhaps even more importantly, Poland is a NATO member, along with Romania, Slovakia and Hungary which also all border Ukraine. But Ukraine isn’t, and I’m not aware of any protection pact, defence treaty or anything of the sort between it and NATO \*or \*Poland, Romania, Slovakia & Hungary. On paper, they’re on their own, besides the predictable hand wringing on the part of the UN. A strongly worded letter to Putin is all the military help they’ll get if push comes to shove. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/13 "2014-02-28T18:09:08Z")
> [@Lion](#): > > Did it? It might have been that kind of confused, hot and cold response that makes Putin confident enough to employ this type of brinkmanship. So what’s your plan? NATO tanks rolling into Ukraine? We’re not going to get into a war with Russia over Ukraine. That is not going to happen, and never was going to happen. You think if a manly man like George W Bush were president, Putin would be scared of an American military response? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/14 "2014-02-28T18:20:30Z")
I am worried that Obama might pull an Asquith. ---
**Author:** ![ThisUsernameIsForbidden](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b4bc9f/32.png) [@ThisUsernameIsForbidden](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisUsernameIsForbidden)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/15 "2014-02-28T18:21:51Z")
Even though Crimea is part of Ukraine, Russia has military, ethinic, and financial interests there, even more so than Syria. The US getting involved militarily would be a blunder of historic proportions. So, at most, the EU and US could impose some kind of economic sanctions, if it is found that Russia has violated some international law. ---
**Author:** ![Bozuit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/edb3f5/32.png) [@Bozuit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bozuit)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/16 "2014-02-28T18:24:54Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > But Ukraine isn’t, and I’m not aware of any protection pact, defence treaty or anything of the sort between it and NATO \*or \*Poland, Romania, Slovakia & Hungary. On paper, they’re on their own, besides the predictable hand wringing on the part of the UN. > > A strongly worded letter to Putin is all the military help they’ll get if push comes to shove. Neither is Ukraine a member of the EU. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/17 "2014-02-28T18:26:59Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > I am worried that Obama might pull an Asquith. You mean - > [@](#): > > Asquith also had a reputation as a groper. Clementine Churchill complained of his habit of peering down the top of dresses, while the socialite Lady Ottoline Morrell claimed that Asquith ‘Would take a lady’s hand as she sat beside him on the sofa, and make her feel his erected instrument under his trousers’. Another woman complained of his ‘drooling, high thigh-stroking advances’. Nah. Michelle would kill him. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/18 "2014-02-28T18:31:02Z")
The US has guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity. That worries me. A lot. ---
**Author:** ![WheatCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/258eb7/32.png) [@WheatCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WheatCat)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/19 "2014-02-28T18:32:57Z")
I think Russians are the majority ethnic group in Crimea, and I also recall that during the Soviet era it was originally part of the Russian Soviet Federation Socialist Republic. Then Khrushchev, who was part or all Ukrainian took it away from the Russian SFSR and gave it to the Ukrainian SSR pretty much as a gift. So both as a matter of history and nationality Ukraine’s claim the the Crimea is short of airtight. ---
**Author:** ![WheatCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/258eb7/32.png) [@WheatCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WheatCat)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2014, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/20 "2014-02-28T18:37:56Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > The US has guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity. That worries me. A lot. 1st page of Google hits does not reveal anything about this, but I do not think there is any chance the US is anywhere near committed to Ukraine to the extent the UK was committed to Belgium in 1914, if that is what you meant. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=2)