# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 102
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2014, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2021 "2014-03-28T22:43:19Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Why **should** the West respond? There would be no point to it. Because if the West doesn’t respond it will encourage more of this kind of behavior, until one day a line is crossed that we can’t possibly ignore. Then we all get to go to war again - this time with nuclear weapons on the table. History is pretty clear on what happens when aggression like this is rewarded. You can bet that all the petty thugs around the world from North Korea to Iran to Russia are recalculating their estimates of what they can get away with in today’s political climate. And those calculations are only going to move in one direction. In the meantime, anyone who supports nuclear non-proliferation should be very worried about this, because the first lesson learned is that nuclear weapons work a lot better than international agreements and U.N. policing when it comes to protecting your country from outside aggression. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2014, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2022 "2014-03-28T22:43:30Z")
> [@Batistuta](#): > > Yesterday’s vote at the UN General Assembly simply serves to illustrate what kind of countries support the invasion: … The overwhelming majority of the international community has not accepted Russia’s invasion of Crimea, and that is telling. > > If anything, this Russian isolation is similar to the one experienced by the coalition during the Iraq invasion. [Do you not see the similarity?](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governmental_positions_on_the_Iraq_War_prior_to_the_2003_invasion_of_Iraq) They are not comparable ‘invasions’. The term ‘invasion’ applied to what Russia did for Crimea, in any realistic comparison to what the belligerent nations did to Iraq, rewqired an understanding that there are varying degrees of destructive and inhumane behaviors within the definition of invasion. And Crimea is the ‘jaywalk’ of invasions while Iraq was the ‘premeditated murder’ end of the ‘invasion’ spectrum. And the Perps of the Iraq invasion were nor punished for it in the way that Russia has been. That is not in duspute is it? Why is it that way is what I’d like to know. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2014, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2023 "2014-03-28T23:18:35Z")
Was there a trigger to the chain of events that led to the done deal that is Crimea becoming part of the Russian Federation? Or was it that Putin simply ‘decided’ to jaywalk-invade Crimea with absolutely no provocation of any sort from Ukraine and the events in Kiev? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2014, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2024 "2014-03-28T23:21:46Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > I meant “most” as in “more than half”. Certainly, it wasn’t as clear-cut as the reaction to the Crimea situaiton. Well, like I said, I’m not sure that most were against it. Not something there ever was a vote on, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some countries opposed would prefer not to do so publicly and offend the US. So how do we know? And in the context (hah!) of this discussion it’s not very informative to say that most countries oppose Russia’s action in Crimea in a similar way that most countries opposed the US action in Iraq. Different levels of “most”, if that’s even the correct word for the latter case. ---
**Author:** ![Falesh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Falesh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Falesh)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2014, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2025 "2014-03-28T23:33:40Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Losing the plot. > > [**Obama Falsely Claims Kosovo Secession Involved UN-Backed Referendum**](http://news.antiwar.com/2014/03/27/obama-falsely-claims-kosovo-secession-involved-un-backed-referendum/) > > Change…_you_ can believe in. If you try real hard and read upside down. > [@RedFury](#): > > Gravity of actions and impunity to same. Add a huge dash of hypocrisy: “it’s OK if we do it.” > > Sorry that is so difficult to understand. Out of interest why are you talking about the US and its moral/immoral history in this thread? I agree that there is a lot of hypocrisy in countries around the world, including the US, UK, Russia, etc. However surely that would be better discussed in another thread, or at most as an aside while making a post about the situation? What this thread is about is Russia’s actions in Crimea and how the world should deal with them. In that context I can understand comments about Russian or Ukrainian hypocrisy, but if it is determined that Russia is in the wrong does it matter if one of the countries taking action against them has a history of hypocrisy? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2014, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2026 "2014-03-28T23:46:08Z")
[Putin is offering to negotiate a “diplomatic resolution.”](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/29/world/europe/putin-calls-obama-on-Ukraine.html?emc=edit_na_20140328&_r=0) No details yet as to what points he considers negotiable. ---
**Author:** ![Falesh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Falesh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Falesh)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2014, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2027 "2014-03-28T23:46:49Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Was there a trigger to the chain of events that led to the done deal that is Crimea becoming part of the Russian Federation? Or was it that Putin simply ‘decided’ to jaywalk-invade Crimea with absolutely no provocation of any sort from Ukraine and the events in Kiev? From what I can tell the trigger was either Putin feeling concerned for his naval bases in a country who’s parliament was not sufficiently pro Russian, or simply that he saw an opportunity to annex Crimea and took it. I’m leaning towards the latter but I really don’t know enough to make an educated guess so I am keeping an open mind. There was certainly no reason to annex Crimea if Russia only wanted to provide security to the Russian population. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2014, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2028 "2014-03-28T23:55:11Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Or you could simply answer the question and admit you were wrong about the rogue states thingy and move on… Did you intend the use of the word ‘rogue’ in any sense to be a compliment or a slur against me? If it was a compliment you can understand why I didn’t take it that way. Human Action’s nit-picking does not make your ‘slur’ not a slur’. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2029 "2014-03-29T00:04:07Z")
Question for XT: What thread is the alleged ‘painful’ discussion about \*the UN as an entire body having a ceremonial vote \*captured in? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2030 "2014-03-29T01:20:10Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Did you intend the use of the word ‘rogue’ in any sense to be a compliment or a slur against me? You are allied with a rogue’s gallery of countries. Not rogue states, as you keep misrepresenting. Make of that what you will. But the fact is, those are your allies. If you’re cool with it, then so be it. We know with whom you stand. If not, then you’ve got a lot of backtracking to do. And let’s keep in mind that this NOT the rogue’s gallery plus a whole bunch of other neutral states. This is only the rogue’s gallery. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2031 "2014-03-29T02:37:21Z")
> [@Falesh](#): > > Out of interest why are you talking about the US and its moral/immoral history in this thread? I agree that there is a lot of hypocrisy in countries around the world, including the US, UK, Russia, etc. However surely that would be better discussed in another thread, or at most as an aside while making a post about the situation? > > What this thread is about is Russia’s actions in Crimea and how the world should deal with them. In that context I can understand comments about Russian or Ukrainian hypocrisy, but if it is determined that Russia is in the wrong does it matter if one of the countries taking action against them has a history of hypocrisy? Interwined. And obviously, to me, it does. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2032 "2014-03-29T03:06:56Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Interwined. And obviously, to me, it does. And yet you still can’t explain why you’re cheering on Russia except that you don’t like the United States, which is logically equivalent to cheering on the guy beating up your cousin because you don’t like the guy who beat up your other cousin. Do you have any thoughts at all _about Russia and its annexation of Crimea?_ For a moment, disregard the big country south of Canada and north of Mexico, which is not actually directly involved. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2033 "2014-03-29T04:12:31Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > And yet you still can’t explain why you’re cheering on Russia except that you don’t like the United States, which is logically equivalent to cheering on the guy beating up your cousin because you don’t like the guy who beat up your other cousin. I don’t see it as ‘cheering on Russia’ just because I see some key points from the Russian side that have validity and bearing on my viewpoint. I also recall the Western driven false claims and fear-mongering against Russia in the aftermath of the wanton attack by Georgia on South Ossetia in 2008 just because Russia retaliated. I love the United States of America but that does not keep me from having an open mind about what is going on in the world. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2034 "2014-03-29T04:57:21Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > You are allied with a rogue’s gallery of countries. You claim that I am _ **‘allied’** _ with something. That is false. I am not\*\* joined \*\*with a rogue’s gallery of countries in any kind of alliance of portraits of criminals in a police file that came from XT’s imaginary rogue’s gallery of police ‘line up cards’ of undesirable people. I am not associated in a close relationship with a rogue’s gallery of countries in any kind of alliance. That is absurd anyway. How can I be associated in a close relationship with an ‘idiomatic expression’? I am not of a similar or related type as a “a coterie of undesirable people” coming from the practice of police keeping portraits of criminals on file to show victims, for the purposes of identification. I Just am not. That is not what I am. You have made another bogus error. Do you have a cite for any of that? If not, why did you make the false claim and slur of me personally? Is your argument suffering that you had to resort to what XT did and Human Action is doing? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2035 "2014-03-29T06:37:07Z")
> [@Falesh](#): > > What this thread is about is Russia’s actions in Crimea and how the world should deal with them. In that context I can understand comments about Russian or Ukrainian hypocrisy, but if it is determined that Russia is in the wrong does it matter if one of the countries taking action against them has a history of hypocrisy? You are correct when you wrote > [@](#): > > What this thread is about is Russia’s actions in Crimea and how the world should deal with them. And some of us are saying to THE WORLD including the US and UK etc that it must consider the FACT that the US and UK etc has not been SANCTIONED or PUNISHED for violating international law of a much worse and deadly nature. And you asked, > [@](#): > > but if it is determined that Russia is in the wrong does it matter if one of the countries taking action against them has a history of hypocrisy When you state “if it is determined” you must be cognizant of the FACT that the ones making the determination are very much the same countries that have NOT determined that they did something very very wrong back in March of 2003. We do not have an international court of law and justice for determining right and wrong. We have a system where the most powerful economic and military side is not held accountable for what it does that clearly violated international law in the past. Legal justice is not blind in the international system. It is biased toward the powerful. It is all relevant in how the world should deal with what has taken place in Crimea. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 7:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2036 "2014-03-29T07:55:48Z")
Crimea is Russian is a fait accompli " \*\*Putin Calls Obama to Discuss Ukraine, White House Says \*\* By PETER BAKER, MICHAEL D. SHEAR and DAVID M. HERSZENHORNMARCH 28, 2014 > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia reached out to President Obama on Friday to discuss ideas about how to peacefully resolve the international standoff over Ukraine, … > **[Putin Calls Obama to Discuss Ukraine, White House Says (Published 2014)](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/29/world/europe/putin-calls-obama-on-Ukraine.html?_r=0)** > > In a phone call initiated by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, President Obama told Mr. Putin that the United States would like to see Russia pull back its troops from Crimea and not take any further steps into Ukraine. Key words \*\*‘peacefully resolve’ \*\*while Crimea settles comfortably in as a member state of the Russian Federation. More text from the link: > [@](#): > > While the White House account of the call emphasized the possible diplomatic movement, the Kremlin’s version stressed Mr. Putin’s complaints about “extremists” in Ukraine … Yes, Crimea is not up for discussion except for de facto acceptance that is coming by the US and EU. > [@](#): > > Indeed, the Kremlin statement made no mention of Crimea, suggesting Mr. Putin considers the matter a fait accompli that is no longer up for discussion. Analysts said the Russian leader may be seeking some sort of de facto acceptance of that new status quo in exchange for not sending troops massed on the border into eastern Ukraine. Look at Obama’s key word \*(further) \*in the following paragraph: > [@](#): > > “President Obama underscored to President Putin that the United States continues to support a diplomatic path in close consultation with the government of Ukraine and in support of the Ukrainian people with the aim of de-escalation of the crisis,” the White House said in a statement. “President Obama made clear that this remains possible only if Russia pulls back its troops and does not take any steps to \*\*further \*\*violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.” There we are - the USA will “support a diplomatic path … with the aim of de-escalation of the crisis” and "that this remains possible only if Russia pulls back its troops and does not take any steps to \*\*further \*\*violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. So is Obama ‘dealing’ with Putins actions to the satisfaction of all? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2037 "2014-03-29T11:48:02Z")
And by “peacefully resolve” he means: Accept the _fait accompli_ of my non-peaceful actions. Sure, Vlad, sure. You’re such a peach of a fellow after all!! ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2038 "2014-03-29T13:00:46Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Did you intend the use of the word ‘rogue’ in any sense to be a compliment or a slur against me? > > If it was a compliment you can understand why I didn’t take it that way. Human Action’s nit-picking does not make your ‘slur’ not a slur’. Oh please. You scream bloody murder whenever you think someone’s taken your words out of context, modified them, or otherwise presented them deceptively. Pointing out that you inserted “rogue state” out of nowhere, when the actual phrase used was the completely different “rogues gallery” (and again, I’m pretty sure you’re ESL, which often results in a lack of familiarity with idioms), is well within the bounds of your own behavior. > [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > You claim that I am _ **‘allied’** _ with something. That is false. > > I am not\*\* joined \*\*with a rogue’s gallery of countries in any kind of alliance of portraits of criminals in a police file that came from XT’s imaginary rogue’s gallery of police ‘line up cards’ of undesirable people. > > I am not associated in a close relationship with a rogue’s gallery of countries in any kind of alliance. That is absurd anyway. How can I be associated in a close relationship with an ‘idiomatic expression’? > > I am not of a similar or related type as a “a coterie of undesirable people” coming from the practice of police keeping portraits of criminals on file to show victims, for the purposes of identification. I Just am not. That is not what I am. > > You have made another bogus error. > > Do you have a cite for any of that? If not, why did you make the false claim and slur of me personally? Is your argument suffering that you had to resort to what XT did and Human Action is doing? Hopefully the above is a result of unfamiliarity with English idioms. The alternative is desperate obfuscation. “Rogues gallery” means “coterie [ie, group] of undesireable people”. The police portrait stuff is the origin of the phrase, not the denotation (again, it’s an idiom). The group in question is the group of 11 nations that voted against the resolution condemning the Crimean referendum as invalid. You believe that the referendum was valid. Therefore, in this instance, you are metaphorically allied with those nations that voted in concordance with your view. ---
**Author:** ![Falesh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Falesh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Falesh)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2039 "2014-03-29T13:06:36Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > You are correct when you wrote > > And some of us are saying to THE WORLD including the US and UK etc that it must consider the FACT that the US and UK etc has not been SANCTIONED or PUNISHED for violating international law of a much worse and deadly nature. So why not make a thread and talk about that? > [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > And you asked, > > When you state “if it is determined” you must be cognizant of the FACT that the ones making the determination are very much the same countries that have NOT determined that they did something very very wrong back in March of 2003. > > We do not have an international court of law and justice for determining right and wrong. We have a system where the most powerful economic and military side is not held accountable for what it does that clearly violated international law in the past. Legal justice is not blind in the international system. It is biased toward the powerful. > > It is all relevant in how the world should deal with what has taken place in Crimea. You have a point that the US’s opinion should be inspected carefully and not taken at face value because it has a history of hypocrisy, as indeed Russia does. But that doesn’t mean that what it thinks is implicitly wrong, merely that we have to be careful to see if we agree with it or not. Besides there is a global response to this situation so we are not relying on the US to tell us if this is right or wrong, this is exemplified by the 100 countries that voted against Russia. Finally with regards to this thread what is important is our personal opinions, it doesn’t matter what the US thinks as that has no baring on each of our opinions about whether Russia is in the right or wrong. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2014, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2040 "2014-03-29T14:20:45Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > It’s easy to be effective - for a while - if you’re willing to shoot dissenters en masse and ship slackers off to the Gulag. Eventually that comes back to bite you in the ass, but it’s not surprising how motivating a gun to the head can be. > > In the past Putin has shown himself to be a very savvy operator. His installation of a puppet leader to maintain the fiction of constitutional limits was smart. The way he has threaded the treacherous oligarchy has been impressive. He’s certainly out-played the U.S. at every turn over the past decade. > > So when someone has shown a history of canny decisions, we shouldn’t be so quick to assume that he’s making a ‘big obvious mistake’ in Crimea. Even if all the points about the economic hit he’ll take are true, that just means we’re evaluating this on our terms - a classic attribution error of the kind that causes wars to start. Putin’s “canny decisions” as you call them have caused his nation’s foreign exports to dwindle down to simple natural resources. While they are ,of course, important resources, they make Russia even more vulnerable to the whims of the economic markets. That’s hardly canny decision making. It’s actually rather poor planning as Russia has demonstrated the ability to maintain a viable manufacturing base in the pst and could easily do so again. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > If you look at this from Putin’s point of view as a Russian Nationalist and someone who sees the world through the lens of force, it makes a lot more sense. Russia could afford to let their warm-water base stay in the hands of the Ukraine so long as the government there remained friendly. Once it changed to a pro-western government and Putin lost his influence in a coup, his prime requirement was ensure that Russia maintain control over Crimea. Anything less would have been a blow to Russia’s power. The economic costs are a secondary issue. The Russian naval base in Crimea was never under threat. Since it is useless anyway without Turkey allowing access through the Bosporus, to make this seem to be about Russian warm water ports is ludicrous. Anyway, Crimea is a semi-arid peninsula whose power and water are currently supplied by Ukraine. Taking control of the area simply forces Russia to either extort Ukraine into maintaining these necessities or forces it to provide them itself. And since Russia’s infrastructure in other areas of the nation is already crumbling, how they are going to maintain Crimea seems to have escaped both the Russian living in Crimea as well as the Russian people themselves. By taking back Crimea they have assumed its problems without presenting any solutions for them. Again, hardly “canny leadership.” > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > His other calculus (and the one we should all be worried about) is that he may see the current feckless state of Europe and the U.S. as a window of opportunity that will not stay open forever. This would not be the first time that a European and American projection of weakness caused an aggressive power to step up to the plate swinging. > > So even if the costs are high, they become irrelevant if Putin strongly believes in an expanded Russia and also believes that Americans and Europeans may elect stronger leaders next time in reaction to his first aggression. He may be thinking, “It’s now or never”. “Now or never” is isn’t rational planning; it’s desperation. It presumes that aggressive actions will net you positive gains without considering all of the consequences of those actions. Putin assumes weakness in the West when it’s clear that the NATO’s expansion and the burgeoning US natural gas boom won’t supplant Russia’s current stranglehold over the EU. That’s a poor assumption and risk for the leader of a major nation to make. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Again, it depends on how you look at it. If he can allow a pogram while distancing himself personally from it, he can achieve the goal of eliminating dissenters while also putting the fear of God into anyone else who might dissent in the future, while retaining enough of a fig leaf of respectability to prevent the rise of dissent in Russia itself. Right now, he’s got something like 80% approval in Russia, which suggests he knows what he’s doing. A pogrom would be a disaster as it would harden Islamic resistance against Russia. So far, Russia has demonstrated a profound inability to resolve its current issues with Islamic fundamentalism and by alienating the West, it could find itself in a position where it battles these elements alone and without Western aid or intelligence. Given Russia teetering economic state, this could to be disastrous as the only demographic in the country which is currently growing is its Muslim population. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Well, they fucked up - they trusted the U.S. to live up to its agreement to defend them. As a result, they don’t have much in the way of capability to resist the Russians. They may also be wary of a trap - there are 100,000 Russian soldiers on their border, and perhaps the Ukrainians believe that any action they take to defend Crimea will be the trigger Putin is looking for to launch a full scale invasion of the country. The lesson of Georgia may not be lost on them. Neither Ukraine nor Georgia were, nor are, members of NATO. They had the opportunity to join and for reasons known only to their leadership they chose not to. Had they done so, this event would not have occurred. Perhaps Ukraine will now reconsider this option as if they are unwilling to fight, it really is the only option that they have left to remain a viable and independent entity. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Here we agree. The way to hit Putin is to show that his attempt to increase his power will result in his neighbors becoming even more powerful. That’s the language he speaks. Economic sanctions are well and good and may put some internal pressure on him, but ultimately he has to be taught that the old Soviet Union isn’t coming back, and any attempt to take it back by force will be met with an overwhelming response. > > Obama should have already announced a re-opening of talks to put missile shield installations back in Eastern Europe, and NATO should be publically discussing mobilation plans to defend the Baltic states. A red line should be drawn - but not in public. That’s what you do in the back channels. And then you have to take concrete steps to show that you mean business regarding a red line - such as moving military assets into place to respond if it’s broken. > > None of that will happen. As usual, Europe is frozen into indecision and has so cut back on its military capability that its ability to meet its own treaty obligations and defend its own territory is questionable. The U.S. announced that it will be scaling its military back dramatically just weeks before the invasion of Crimea. At the very least, the Obama administration should announce that those plans are now being revisited in light of the aggression displayed by Russia. The Soviet Union cannot “come back.” It was a historical anomaly which cannot be revisited due to changes in the world political climate. Even a return to “Imperial Russia” is a non-starter as the nations which have left Russia have mostly shown little interest in rejoining the group. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=101) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=103)