# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 128
**Author:** ![kurtisokc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/bbce88/32.png) [@kurtisokc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kurtisokc)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2541 "2014-04-18T04:42:57Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > On 03-16-2014 at 03:09 PM **kurtisokc wrote** : > I wonder if kurtisokc, after thirty days, still agrees with himself. I still stand by what I said. It appears that the most likely outcome will be what I predicted would happen at the time: That Ukraine and the West will be forced to tactly accept de-facto Russian control over Crimea, but still won’t recognize it. Ukraine obvioiusly won’t like it, but will be powerless to change it. The West will not back down from its position that Russia’s annexation was illegal for fear of setting a bad precident (and rightfully so IMO) but will not have the will to do what is necessary to change the de facto situation. So, essentially, Crimea will continue to exist in a sort of limbo à la Northern Cyprus or Abkhazia, appearing on western maps as “in dispute” or part of Ukraine “occupied by Russia.” And after a few years, no one outside of Crimea will feel any particular urgency to change the situation. I could see this lasting for decades. Thing is that as long as Russia’s de jour soverignty is disputed, the situation would be perceived as potentially unstable enough to deter outside investment. Think about it: Who would want to invest millions in a venture knowing that overnight it might end up in another country? Or knowing that your own government doesn’t officially recognize the legality of the country exercising de facto control of the site? What I think is really sad is that I (and I suspect many other people) wouldn’t be opposed to Crimean self-determination (including annexation by Russia, if that’s what most Crimeans wanted) if it were the result of a legitimate democratic process. That is not what happened. Instead what we saw was a referendum held in obscene haste, with no time for meaningful campaigning, with the build-up to to the vote taking place under conditions of occupation by forces who were clearly hostle to the anti-annexation side, and which culminated in an implausible result. (97% my ass!!!) ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 7:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2542 "2014-04-18T07:48:05Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Probably because of the whole shooting the protesters thingy that you continue to not address. You endlessly dance around the question of WHY your precious ex-President of the Ukraine had to flee in the first place. Yanukovich is not ‘precious’ to me. And you are wrong about my not addressing the shooting of Maidan protestors: On 03-04-2014 at 02:39 PM **Malthus wrote** : > [@](#): > > An election does not give a leader carte blanche to rob his country blind and murder people who disapprove. Democracy isn’t simply a sort of religious ritual that confers a seamless mantle of legitimacy. It requires things like respect for the rule of law to work. When the President starts (say) having his relations corner the market in government contracts and having opponents “disappeared”, he _ought_ to be impeached. On 03-04-2014 at 05:49 PM \*\*I wrote \*\*in response: > [@](#): > > Are you saying that a democratically elected government cannot shoot violent protesters if they must be shot to defend the institution of governing? Where does peaceful protest end and violent attacks on government property and security forces begin. That can be a cloudy line that must be interpreted during chaos and civil disorder and extremes of passion on both sides. Which side deserves protection? The elected government or the right to protest. Cutting a gas deal at a cheaper rate for Ukraine should not justify the breakdown in civil order that forced an elected government to fall. Wikipedia shows that February 18 was the day that 30 Ukrainians were killed. Twenty were protestors and ten were police. After that on the 19th and 20th there were 40 more killed, mostly protestors. A total of 17 police were killed during the protests. But on the 18th that was a high number of police getting killed in one day. Lots of questions: [http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/04/03/dispatches-where-truth-behind-ukraine-s-maidan-sniper-attacks](http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/04/03/dispatches-where-truth-behind-ukraine-s-maidan-sniper-attacks) April 3, 2014: > [@](#): > > Today senior Ukrainian government officials shared preliminary findings of the new government’s investigation into February’s events that resulted in the killing of protesters, and ultimately the ouster of Ukraine’s then-president Viktor Yanukovich. > > The clashes that took place from February 18 to 20 were the bloodiest in Ukraine’s post-Soviet era: More than 70 people – both protesters and law enforcement – were killed in gunfire, including by sniper shootings. Responsibility for the sniper killings on Maidan have been hotly debated both in Ukraine and internationally > ] and this: > [@](#): > > Such discrepancies can be expected in the politically charged situation that Ukraine is currently facing. They also underscore the importance of an impartial and thorough investigation, including with the help of such intergovernmental organizations as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the United Nations, to make sure that vested political interests play no role in establishing the truth. You seem to know what happened. I think it will be a long time before we know all the facts. ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 9:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2543 "2014-04-18T09:04:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Ukraine looking to do the smart thing: rebuild their nuclear deterrent: > > [http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/16/opinion/hall-ukraine-russia-putin-nuclear/index.html?hpt=op\_t1](http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/16/opinion/hall-ukraine-russia-putin-nuclear/index.html?hpt=op_t1) > > Why not? The treaty that caused them to give up their weapons is now null and void. Having seen the Ukrainian armed forces in action this past week… that would be the worst possible outcome to this situation. Ukraine would join India, Pakistan and North Korea in the ‘countries too disorganised to possess nuclear weapons’. About their justification: it seems that every aggressive action in this crisis is being justified with the “previous agreements have been rendered void, so we can do whatever we want” excuse. Not the best attitude if we’re to find a solution to the crisis. > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [Well, there’s an international agreement now, at least.](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-crisis-agreement-us-russia-eu) Having read the agreement, it seems to me that Russian diplomats have won this one (again). The Ukrainian government will have to kick protesters out of Maidan and other hot areas, and that will cause tension. Let’s hope this can be done in a civilised manner ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2544 "2014-04-18T14:44:22Z")
> [@Batistuta](#): > > Having read the agreement, it seems to me that Russian diplomats have won this one (again). The Ukrainian government will have to kick protesters out of Maidan and other hot areas, and that will cause tension. Let’s hope this can be done in a civilised manner The main things won here is that the interim government in Kiev has put aside military actions against the separatists for the time being. Putin has staked out his long term satisfaction with a constitutional change in Kiev federalizing the regions of Ukraine and giving them more autonomy including the economic freedom to partner with whatever nation the region’s industry and commercial interests decide. It will be problematic however if the mobs of occupiers of government buildings are not being controlled by Putin sufficiently for them to trust that Kiev and the OSCE will follow through with Kiev’s side of the Geneva agreement. This miner is having none of what Kiev and Moscow, Washington and London worked out in Geneva in his name: > [@](#): > > In Khartsyzsk, an industrial city 30 miles from Donetsk where separatists have been in control of the city hall since Sunday, local activists said they had no plans to leave public buildings. Barricades of tyres have been built around the city hall, which flies the flag of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Banners draped outside proclaim “No to Fascism” and “No to the EU”. Another banner reads “Russia+Donbass=heart”. > > At the barricade, Vladimir Pakhomovich, a former miner, said: “We are not Moscow or Kiev. They do not command us. We are just here to defend our people. Until we get a referendum, we do not intend to leave.” Ukraine: separatists refuse to end occupation despite Geneva agreement \*\*No sign of pro-Russian groups pulling out of city halls and town squares in eastern Ukraine despite deal to defuse crisis \*\*Luke Harding in Khartsyzsk, Julian Borger in Geneva and Alec Luhn in Donetsk [theguardian.com](http://theguardian.com), Friday 18 April 2014 05.28 EDT [Ukraine: separatists refuse to end occupation despite Geneva agreement | Russia | The Guardian](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/18/ukraine-separatists-occupation-geneva-agreement) ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2545 "2014-04-18T15:24:23Z")
Like the ex-miner says, they weren’t party to any agreement. Politicians in a jerk circle is one thing, a fired up population another. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2546 "2014-04-18T15:46:29Z")
With all due respect to Mr ex-Miner, I don’t see how he’s going to get his referendum with all this craziness going on - including his occupation of government buildings. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2547 "2014-04-18T16:01:41Z")
> [@BrokenBriton](#): > > Like the ex-miner says, they weren’t party to any agreement. > > Politicians in a jerk circle is one thing, a fired up population another. The protest events in Eastern Ukraine need to be viewed in the west for what it is. \*\*Its the economy stupid. \*\* From the following link: “people work, not protest,” residents often tend to vote with their stomachs. > [@](#): > > In this region of coal mines and machinery plants, where according to a local saying, “people work, not protest,” residents often tend to vote with their stomachs. > > And there is no doubt that bread-and-butter issues are influencing the debate here. There are mixed feelings in the east, for instance, over the new government’s move to sign a trade deal with European Union that could lead Russia to slap higher duties on Ukrainian imports. > > Ukrainian academics in the east, such as Yuri Makogon at Donetsk National University, are calling for a balanced economic relationship between Russia and Europe. [http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ukrainian-troop-defections-escalate-tensions-in-eastern-ukraine/2014/04/16/4d36b1b6-c532-11e3-b574-f8748871856a\_story.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ukrainian-troop-defections-escalate-tensions-in-eastern-ukraine/2014/04/16/4d36b1b6-c532-11e3-b574-f8748871856a_story.html) > [@](#): > > Deepening resentment > > In the long run, such austerity measures may be needed to help fix the broken economy , which appeared to reach new heights of corruption when Yanukovych was in power. But they are deepening the sense of resentment against the fragile new government in Kiev. > > “How can they do this to us all at once?” said Ilya, who owns a heating supply company that sells German-made boilers in Donetsk. He buys his equipment in euros and sells in hryvnia, so the currency devaluation has increased his costs by 40 percent at a time when no one is buying. > > “People are already scared; they don’t know who to trust,” he said. “They are pushing us toward Russia.” > > IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said this month that Ukrainians must learn to help themselves. “If there is that collective drive to eliminate corruption, to establish good governance, to have good procurements, to have true prices for energy and to own their economic destiny,” change “will happen,” she told Euronews. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2548 "2014-04-18T16:18:48Z")
I think most people understand that economics is a driving force here. Yes IMF money comes with some harsh costs/stipulations (as it does to every single country it’s loaned money to), but if people in the east think Russian money is going to pour in without costs they are deluded. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2549 "2014-04-18T16:20:29Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I think most people understand that economics is a driving force here. Yes IMF money comes with some harsh costs/stipulations (as it does to every single country it’s loaned money to), but if people in the east think Russian money is going to pour in without costs they are deluded. Exactly. ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2550 "2014-04-18T16:32:19Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > With all due respect to Mr ex-Miner, I don’t see how he’s going to get his referendum with all this craziness going on - including his occupation of government buildings. Negotiations haven’t begun. Of course a referendum will happen, Putin has plenty of ways to increase pressure until Kiev agrees. Not least participation by ethnic Russians in the May elections. There is just quite a process to go through first. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2551 "2014-04-18T16:46:04Z")
The negotiations will have to include vacating government buildings. Since you seem to call the international negotiations a political circle jerk, who do you think the valid participants will be? Whoever happened to lead the charge on the buildings? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2552 "2014-04-18T16:46:52Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I think most people understand that economics is a driving force here. Yes IMF money comes with some harsh costs/stipulations (as it does to every single country it’s loaned money to), but if people in the east think Russian money is going to pour in without costs they are deluded. What costs? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2553 "2014-04-18T16:55:33Z")
Well, the money that poured into South Ossetia seemed to produce limos for pro-Moscow politicians driving by ruined houses on shitty roads. I can’t say what exactly the money will produce or cost in Crimea or eastern Ukraine. I assume very Moscow friendly trade agreements but who knows? The Russians are of course presenting it as an act of generosity but taking that at face value would be to ignore human nature and history. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2554 "2014-04-18T17:24:21Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well, the money that poured into South Ossetia seemed to produce limos for pro-Moscow politicians driving by ruined houses on shitty roads. I can’t say what exactly the money will produce or cost in Crimea or eastern Ukraine. I assume very Moscow friendly trade agreements but who knows? The Russians are of course presenting it as an act of generosity but taking that at face value would be to ignore human nature and history. It appears that Putin is a villain to you no matter what. I thought you meant that the coal miner would have to give a virgin daughter to one of Putin’s oligarch entourage for the privilege of buying $285 per ton NG. So you have nothing but pro-Putin politicians driving limos in South Ossetia. So how many limos will snarl the streets of Khartsyzsk and Donetsk for economic aid from their Russian neighbor and spiritual friend? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2555 "2014-04-18T17:28:58Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > It appears that Putin is a villain to you no matter what. I thought you meant that the coal miner would have to give a virgin daughter to one of Putin’s oligarch entourage for the privilege of buying $285 per ton NG. So you have nothing but pro-Putin politicians driving limos in South Ossetia. So how many limos will snarl the streets of Khartsyzsk and Donetsk for economic aid from their Russian neighbor and spiritual friend? Putin hijacked Russia’s move towards democracy so I doubt I’ll ever like him but what you wrote here is idiotic and not worth a real reply. ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2556 "2014-04-18T17:31:57Z")
Come on **CarnalK** , you’re being too cynical. We all know that Putin - the liberator of the Chechens, the Tatars and the Crimeans; who also negotiated with Yanukovych to offer him a great association agreement - acts out of generosity. Ukraine should be happy to have such a good neighbour ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2557 "2014-04-18T17:35:49Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The negotiations will have to include vacating government buildings. Since you seem to call the international negotiations a political circle jerk, who do you think the valid participants will be? Whoever happened to lead the charge on the buildings? Kerry’s puppets from the west and Putin’s puppets from the east. The former is the ‘active government’, some of the latter are currently in prison - Putin will have to get all those ducks lined up in the next few weeks: the ethnic Russians need credible political leadership pretty soon, though, if Putin recognises the elections, they’ll presumably vote en masse for whoever is put up. Putin will, I guess, need a very firm committment on a referedum before recognising the May process. We’ll have to see the terms of the referendum, maybe a form of federalism … ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2558 "2014-04-18T18:36:23Z")
> [@BrokenBriton](#): > > Putin will, I guess, need a very firm committment on a referedum before recognising the May process. > > We’ll have to see the terms of the referendum, maybe a form of federalism … Undoubtedly he wants a form of federalism. I am sure that Putin knows he bought himself a money pit in Crimea. A group of Russian leaning semi autonomous regions in the east is his goal now.Any more annexation would be a distant second choice I bet. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2559 "2014-04-18T19:13:18Z")
[**Ukraine bans entry for all Russian males aged 16-60: Aeroflot**](http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ukraine-bans-entry-for-all-russian-males-aged-16-60-aeroflot.aspx?pageID=238&nID=65201&NewsCatID=353) I can see how this move is not bigoted in the least, especially considering close to 30% of Ukraine’s population is either Russian or or direct Russian descent. Now, Ukraine would have every right to not allow weapons into the country or decide on a case-by-case basis which Russians should be allowed and which ones shouldn’t be – e.g. the ones in active duty military or in intelligence services. But to say _ **all** _ Russians won’t be allowed entry is xenophobic and a textbook example of bigotry. Democracy in Ukraine: alive and well. According to The West. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2560 "2014-04-18T19:35:15Z")
Free elections? Watch [**this video**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=nWnc8UzNfJY) and tell me Putin’s not right in saying he won’t recognize the result of same under this opressive fascist climate. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=127) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=129)