# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion\
**Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 130

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2581 "2014-04-19T00:27:01Z")

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> [@RedFury](#):
>
> Not quite like yours. You sound more and more like a xenophobe that thinks every Russian is out to destroy Ukraine.

You are seriously beyond ridiculous. No, not every Russian is out to destroy Ukraine but it’s incredibly reasonable for the Ukraine to limit Russian men from entering their country after what just happened/is happening. For you to be so amazingly obtuse to that makes me wonder what the point of reasoning with you might be.

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2582 "2014-04-19T01:23:06Z")

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Just to get a sense of the room, NFbW and BrokenBriton do you agree with RedFury that it’s xenophobic and undemocratic to attempt (regardless of the chance of success) to limit 16-45 yr old male Russian visitors for a bit?

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2583 "2014-04-19T02:06:34Z")

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> [@RedFury](#):
>
> Not quite like yours. You sound more and more like a xenophobe that thinks every Russian is out to destroy Ukraine.
> 
> It is. Nationalist/Nazis backed by _The West_ talking about a “united” Ukraine. There isn’t “one,” far from it – guess you fail to see the humor in that. Tragic as is.
> 
> _Borders_? _What_ borders? And what the fuck is the illegitimate Gov in Kiev going to do about it?
> 
> Meanwhile, Obama can boast his throat off. He isn’t going to do shit about it. Too fucking scared – as we should all be.

RedFury, I just warned you a day or so ago to throttle it back. Yet in this post you appear to be calling a poster a xenophobe and in your post of 5:21 you are backdoor insulting another poster with that ‘idiocy’ line.

This is a warning. Further such posts will earn more. It is possible to discuss even heated issues without resorting to derision and insults. I encourage you to do so.

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2584 "2014-04-19T02:20:03Z")

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> [@scabpicker](#):
>
> I don’t know of any attempt to deprive Russia of access to their Mediterranean ports by the U.S., Ukraine or anyone.

Really? See Below: " **Yushchenko announced last summer that Ukraine would not extend the lease of the Sevastopol base beyond 2017, and urged the Russian fleet to start preparations for a withdrawal."**  
And the US was pushing it: **European NATO members led by Germany blocked U.S.-backed bids by Ukraine and Georgia to join programs leading to membership in the military alliance, but the ex-Soviet states were told they would eventually be allowed to join.**  
[http://news.kievukraine.info/2009/07/ukraine-will-not-host-nato-bases.html](http://news.kievukraine.info/2009/07/ukraine-will-not-host-nato-bases.html)

> [@](#):
>
> Monday, July 06, 2009 \*\*Ukraine Will Not Host NATO Bases \*\*
> 
> SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine – Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said on Sunday that Ukraine will not host foreign military bases, and its territory will not be used against Russia, when the country joins NATO.
> 
> Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko takes part in a celebration marking the anniversary of Ukraine’s Fleet in at the Crimean port of Sevastopol, Sunday, July 5, 2009.
> 
> “Ukraine guarantees that there will be no foreign soldiers of any bloc or any country. This is implied by the Constitution of Ukraine and Ukraine’s Law on the Fundamentals of Security,” Yushchenko said.
> 
> Ukraine has been pursuing NATO membership since pro-Western Yushchenko was inaugurated in January 2005.
> 
> Ukraine’s NATO membership, however, needs approval at a nation-wide referendum on the issue. Meanwhile, regular opinion polls show that the majority of Ukrainians continue to oppose joining the alliance.
> 
> NATO has enlarged since 1999, admitting three ex-Soviet Baltic republics and four Communist-bloc states in Eastern Europe. The expansion has strained relations between the West and Russia, which is concerned by the new military bases emerging along its borders.
> 
> Last December, European NATO members led by Germany blocked **U.S.-backed bids by Ukraine and Georgia to join programs leading to membership in the military alliance,** but the ex-Soviet states were told they would eventually be allowed to join.
> 
> **Yushchenko also said that the Russian Black Sea Fleet based in Sevastopol in Ukraine’s Crimea must leave the base in 2017 when a bilateral treaty expires.**  
> Russia’s Black Sea Fleet uses a range of naval facilities in Ukraine’s Crimea, including the main base in Sevastopol, as part of a 1997 agreement, under which Ukraine agreed to lease the bases to Russia until 2017.
> 
> **Yushchenko announced last summer that Ukraine would not extend the lease of the Sevastopol base beyond 2017, and urged the Russian fleet to start preparations for a withdrawal.**  
> Source: Defence Professionals

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**Author:** ![kurtisokc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/bbce88/32.png) [@kurtisokc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kurtisokc)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2585 "2014-04-19T02:27:23Z")

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[retracted]

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2586 "2014-04-19T02:34:40Z")

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> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> Just to get a sense of the room, NFbW and BrokenBriton do you agree with RedFury that it’s xenophobic and undemocratic to attempt (regardless of the chance of success) to limit 16-45 yr old male Russian visitors for a bit?

Didn’t bother me in the least. The police from what I can tell are pretty much with the anti-Maidan ‘mob’ … don’t know if that includes the border police.

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**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2587 "2014-04-19T04:09:53Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> > [@scabpicker](#):
> >
> > I don’t know of any attempt to deprive Russia of access to their Mediterranean ports by the U.S., Ukraine or anyone.
> 
> Really?

Well, you “really” need a lesson in geography if you think that the elimination of one port on the Black Sea would eliminate Russia’s access to the Mediterranean.

At minimum, Russia would still have access by way of Rostov-na-Donu, Novorossijsk, and, perhaps, Sochi.

And letting other nations join NATO also fails to prevent Russian access to the Mediterranean. The one nation that actually can prevent Russian access to the Mediterranean has been a member of NATO for decades.

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 8:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2588 "2014-04-19T08:08:57Z")

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> [@tomndebb](#):
>
> Well, you “really” need a lesson in geography if you think that the elimination of one port on the Black Sea would eliminate Russia’s access to the Mediterranean.

That one port is the only geographic location that could accommodate and was deep enough to harbor ‘a platform for projecting power’ into the Mediterranean.  
((“For Russia, the fleet and its Sevastopol base are a guarantor of its southern borders and a platform for projecting power into the Black Sea and from there into the Mediterranean. Its base is also a docking point for Russian oil tankers bound for the Bosporus and the fleet will be tasked with protecting Russia’s South Stream gas pipeline once it is finished.”))  
[http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA260Y320140307?irpc=932](http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA260Y320140307?irpc=932)

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**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 9:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2589 "2014-04-19T09:17:49Z")

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> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> Just to get a sense of the room, NFbW and BrokenBriton do you agree with RedFury that it’s xenophobic and undemocratic to attempt (regardless of the chance of success) to limit 16-45 yr old male Russian visitors for a bit?

Elections are in May, in current conditions that’s a lifetime away.

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2590 "2014-04-19T13:29:08Z")

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Amazing. Both of you quoted me but neither of you actually answered the question. I will rephrase and see if that works: NFbW and BrokenBriton, is it reasonable for a country to bar military age men from a country it considers hostile? Is it fair for the Ukraine to consider Russia hostile?

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**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2591 "2014-04-19T13:44:08Z")

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“fair” LOL. What are you talking about, you think this is contract bridge?

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2592 "2014-04-19T13:49:07Z")

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You are just proving you aren’t arguing in good faith. I am not a moron. I know how much “fair” counts in the real world. I was asking if you fucking agreed with Redfury’s assessment of me and Ukraine being “xenophobic”. But clearly you are too invested in winning the internets to be able to honestly answer the question.

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**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2593 "2014-04-19T13:58:27Z")

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sorry, what you’re postulating makes no sense: ‘is this entity called Ukraine "xenophobic?’ - half the country comprises the people _Kiev_ is trying to restrict entry to so it seems a odd on the face of it.

Of course Putin wants more of his people in situ - unfortuately for him, and unlike Crimea, he hasn’t got 25,000 already stationed there, and of course _Kiev_ wants to keep them out.

Yesterday you didn’t think a referendum would happen, today you don’t seem to understand proxies.

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2594 "2014-04-19T14:02:18Z")

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Both of you, calm the heck down.

This applies to ALL in this thread. No more attacking the poster AT ALL. Arguments, yes. Arguers, no.

Get it?

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2595 "2014-04-19T14:04:02Z")

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Lol. You just can’t do it. You can’t concede a small single point so you have to dodge.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2596 "2014-04-19T14:05:33Z")

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Oops. I simulposted with that mod note. I was dropping it there anyways.

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**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2597 "2014-04-19T14:27:05Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> Really? See Below: " **Yushchenko announced last summer that Ukraine would not extend the lease of the Sevastopol base beyond 2017, and urged the Russian fleet to start preparations for a withdrawal."**

Ok, ignorance fought. However, that isn’t an agressive act, acts of this nature would warrant whining and negotiating. Going straight to invading your neighbors and depriving that country of their harbor is a bit extreme, don’t you think?

And your statement that the U.S. was “pushing” Ukraine into NATO? GOOD. I’ve never said the U.S. didn’t encourage them. I was saying that a great deal of Russia’s neighbors want to join NATO whether the U.S. was pushing them or not. If Russia is upset about that, they really have no-one to blame about the situation but themselves, and only they can make the situation less threatening.

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2598 "2014-04-19T15:16:42Z")

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> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> … Is it fair for the Ukraine to consider Russia hostile?

> [@BrokenBriton](#):
>
> “fair” LOL. What are you talking about, you think this is contract bridge?

I don’t think the word “fair” is being used the same way in these two posts. The question as I understand it is: “Is it reasonable for the Ukrainian government (whether you consider it legitimate or not) to consider the Russian government hostile?” And of course it is.

I’ll also ask, is it any more xenophobic, undemocratic, or absurd for the Ukrainian government to restrict Russian nationals travel into their country at this time than it was for the United States to restrict travel into the United States by Saudis after 911? And of course it is not.

I am no expert on ports or military projection but I will say this much - if it is true that Russia has for years allowed itself to have only one means of projecting power into the Mediterranean, that one being a port in another country with a lease that was due to expire in 2017, then either they either don’t really feel the need to project power in that region in that way or are very stupid.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2599 "2014-04-19T16:37:49Z")

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**DSeid** , if I am interpreting BB and NFbW responses to me correctly, neither of them agree with RedFury that this is some outrageous move but both seem happy for some reason that it’s going to be hard to enforce.

And the lack of deep sea warm ports is merely Russia’s unfortunate geography, not stupidity. Well, before they annexed Crimea, of course.

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2600 "2014-04-19T17:13:18Z")

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[Novorossiysk](http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Security-Watch/2014/0227/Russia-s-naval-base-in-Ukraine-Critical-asset-or-point-of-pride) not only could be, but is in early stages of being, developed as a Black Sea military port. They just hadn’t ever bothered to do it before and have not been in any hurry to get it done.

> [@](#):
>
> As such, “Sevastopol is an important base, but not vitally so,” says Alexander Golts, deputy editor of the online newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal.
> 
> He notes that the official understanding with Ukraine, even when the lease was renewed by deposed President Viktor Yanukovych, was that Russia would eventually redeploy its Black Sea naval forces to Novorossiysk, a civilian seaport just up the coast from the Olympic venue of Sochi. So if the new anti-Moscow government in Kiev moves to rescind the Kharkov Agreement – a move that some analysts say could be the “red line” issue that causes the Kremlin to intervene – another option is available to the Russian Navy.
> 
> “There have already been efforts to reconfigure Novorossiysk as a base for the Black Sea Fleet, and it is feasible,” Mr. Golts says. “But, frankly speaking, Sevastopol is much better. It would be a pity to lose it, but not crucial for Russia.”
> 
> If Russia does intervene in Crimea in the coming days or weeks, the calculus in Moscow will be mainly a political one, and not a hard strategic choice, says Mr. Konovalov.
> 
> “Sevastopol is a powerful psychological factor for us, a symbol of Russian glory and pride,” he says. “It’s an important page of our history but, at the end of the day, we don’t absolutely need it.”

Of course they did just (last June) give up their other option for a naval presence in warm waters - the Syrian port of [Tartus](http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0627/Why-Russia-evacuated-its-naval-base-in-Syria).

> [@](#):
>
> In a surprise move, Russia has pulled all its military and nondiplomatic civilian personnel out of Syria. That includes a complete evacuation of the naval supply station in the Mediterranean port of Tartus, which is often discussed as one of Russia’s key reasons for its long and stubborn support of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. …

How to put this together?

Did Putin (and it seems likely that he thinks for the Russian government in decisions) assume that there was no chance Ukraine would go West last June so there was no _need_ for Tartus? Or does he actually not care too much about projecting power into the Mediterranean, prefering more to focus on nearby spheres of influence with an expanding contiguous Imperial Russia and with these portions of Ukraine being more important to a sense of nationalist pride and mythology than of critical strategic need?

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