# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 150
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2981 "2014-05-08T15:00:52Z")
[In Soviet Greater Russia insurgents are hot](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BnGVgCNIgAAJTvd.jpg:large) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2982 "2014-05-08T15:01:39Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > A federalization could perhaps be a workable compromise. In a few decades, if Ukraine gets it shit together, they can centralize again. If not the regions can have time to properly prepare an exit and entry to Russia. There is almost never a “proper” way to carve up chunks of a country and give it to another. The way that generally is done is called “war”. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2983 "2014-05-08T15:21:19Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > There is almost never a “proper” way to carve up chunks of a country and give it to another. The way that generally is done is called “war”. Yes, there is always a proper, right and just way to carve up any nation. It’s called a fair referendum. It has been done a few times in Europe during the last decades and is going to happen more in the coming. Good thing too. A nation is not a religion. It’s just a way for a group of people to conveniently organise themselves. If the organisation no longer serves their needs or wishes, they should break it up and do it in a way that does. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2984 "2014-05-08T15:21:48Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > Then you should look to who is behind the think tank: > [Pew About](http://www.pewglobal.org/about/) > > Madeleine Albright is on record with her opinion on the matter of Russia (and Serbia, etc.). She is not an impartial observer and anything she says or fronts on the matter is to be considered an opinion piece from a fairly extremist wing with an agenda to grind. I’m sorry, but are you saying that because the institution that conducted the poll is headed by this woman, it is to be presumed a fake and can be disregarded? To cedibly make that argument, you would have to show that Pew polling is generally unreliable and politically-motivated. I’m unwilling to take that on faith. From what I have seen, it is generally well-regarded. > [@](#): > > You call that evidence? Jesus. Yes, I call that evidence. So far, your only counter to it is to impugn the credibility of the pollster. > [@](#): > > You are saying that because the insurgency may only have backing of a smaller percentage (although presumable still a double digit percentage) of the population, then it’s given that they must be Russian intruders? I’m sorry, but that’s just not how the world works. A small but dedicated group of people can make changes far in excess of what their numbers speak. History has shown this to be the case numerous times. > > Anyway, my opinion on the matter is that likely there is not a majority that want to break away from Ukraine, although I do think that there is a majority that are massively fed up with Kiev and what is perceived as decades of shit taken from the Ukrainian speaking side. A federalization could perhaps be a workable compromise. In a few decades, if Ukraine gets it shit together, they can centralize again. If not the regions can have time to properly prepare an exit and entry to Russia. I’m saying that it is some evidence that they are, indeed, “a minority position artifically bolstered by Russian forces” [note: NOT the same as your summary: “… they must be Russian intruders”. See the ‘subtle’ differences between what I actually said and your summary?]. Add to that lots of other, previously-existing evidence to support the same conclusion. This ‘insurgency’ is unlikely to have real legs, _without_ massive Russian medding and support. Why? Because, assuming the polling data is accurate, the majority even of the allegedly disaffected minority does not support it, that’s why. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2985 "2014-05-08T15:24:47Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > Yes, there is always a proper, right and just way to carve up any nation. It’s called a fair referendum. It has been done a few times in Europe during the last decades and is going to happen more in the coming. Good thing too. A nation is not a religion. It’s just a way for a group of people to conveniently organise themselves. If the organisation no longer serves their needs or wishes, they should break it up and do it in a way that does. It is interesting, then, that (a) poll data (yes, I know you don’t believe in it) indicates such a “fair” referendum would fail in this case; and (b) Putin is no longer pushing for a referendum? Coincidence? ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2986 "2014-05-08T15:27:01Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > . . . How many troops have the USA amassed on the border to Mexico? Like none. (OK, about 300 for counter drug. So, like none). ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2987 "2014-05-08T15:38:40Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > Like none. > > (OK, about 300 for counter drug. So, like none). You should check out Fort Bliss. Its like a stone throw away from Mexico. Fort Hood is also suspiciously close. You should probably remove those just to be sure NATO doesn’t get its knickers in a twist or something. ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2988 "2014-05-08T15:50:25Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > You should check out Fort Bliss. Its like a stone throw away from Mexico. Fort Hood is also suspiciously close. You should probably remove those just to be sure NATO doesn’t get its knickers in a twist or something. Now we’re just getting silly. That would be a fair argument if the United States had recently annexed, say, the region of Chihuahua. But as things stand, US troops near the Mexican border are not the same thing as Russian troops near the Ukrainian border ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2989 "2014-05-08T15:54:20Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > I’m sorry, but are you saying that because the institution that conducted the poll is headed by this woman, it is to be presumed a fake and can be disregarded? All institutions are to be considered impartial from the get go. Any institution headed by a person with a known radical bias should be considered even more impartial. Any institution which distribute information in a warlike situation should be approached with utmost care, since everybody knows what is the first victim of wars. Any survey in an unstable region should be considered suspect, since it’d be extremely difficult to obtain good quality data to base any conclusion on. No I don’t trust the survey. Not a bit. > [@Malthus](#): > > Yes, I call that evidence. So far, your only counter to it is to impugn the credibility of the pollster. Because where I come from evidence need to be a lot more concrete and tangible. Colin Powell had more solid evidence than that when he declared that Saddam was loaded with WMD. Even if the poll was 100% accurate it says absolutely nothing about what troops Russia may or may not have anywhere on the globe. And when the claim is extraordinary or grave the evidence need to be extra super bulletproof. All you can have are some rather wobbly conjectures. Evidence of Russian troops in Ukraine would be the capture of such troops. Btw. I’ve seen lots of the same kind of proof that the USA has troops in Ukraine. I regard it with the same reliability. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2990 "2014-05-08T15:57:22Z")
> [@Batistuta](#): > > Now we’re just getting silly. That would be a fair argument if the United States had recently annexed, say, the region of Chihuahua. But as things stand, US troops near the Mexican border are not the same thing as Russian troops near the Ukrainian border As I said, when NATO counts troops in military barracks that have existed since 1945 as evidence of Russian massing troops then they are full of shit, just as we can all agree that it is silly to claim the USA is massing troops near the Mexican border because of Fort Bliss. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2991 "2014-05-08T16:04:29Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > It is interesting, then, that (a) poll data (yes, I know you don’t believe in it) indicates such a “fair” referendum would fail in this case; and (b) Putin is no longer pushing for a referendum? > > Coincidence? I think Putin has better intel than an American think tank, so no, not really interesting. Besides Putin got what he came for: Crimea and a federalization of the rest of Ukraine. He doesn’t want any more and has little respect for the will of the people. A referendum at this time would be an inconvenience for him. I on the other hand do not base my opinions on the official memos of neither Putin nor Obama. I still think an orderly referendum ought to be carried out. The will of the people is always to be sought. If it gives a strong mandate to Ukraine, then more power to it. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2992 "2014-05-08T16:10:49Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > All institutions are to be considered impartial biased, not impartial. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2993 "2014-05-08T16:17:40Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > All institutions are to be considered impartial from the get go. Any institution headed by a person with a known radical bias should be considered even more impartial. Any institution which distribute information in a warlike situation should be approached with utmost care, since everybody knows what is the first victim of wars. Any survey in an unstable region should be considered suspect, since it’d be extremely difficult to obtain good quality data to base any conclusion on. No I don’t trust the survey. Not a bit. So … you have nothing. As I suspected. Just hand-waving away inconvenient evidence. Polling data is subject to certain inaccuracies, which are usually stated up front when dealing with reliable polls. That is not the same as simply assuming from the get-go they are worthless, as you are doing. > [@](#): > > Because where I come from evidence need to be a lot more concrete and tangible. Colin Powell had more solid evidence than that when he declared that Saddam was loaded with WMD. Even if the poll was 100% accurate it says absolutely nothing about what troops Russia may or may not have anywhere on the globe. And when the claim is extraordinary or grave the evidence need to be extra super bulletproof. All you can have are some rather wobbly conjectures. Evidence of Russian troops in Ukraine would be the capture of such troops. > > Btw. I’ve seen lots of the same kind of proof that the USA has troops in Ukraine. I regard it with the same reliability. I said nothing whatsoever about “Russian troops in Ukraine”. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2994 "2014-05-08T16:50:10Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > So … you have nothing. As I suspected. Just hand-waving away inconvenient evidence. > > Polling data is subject to certain inaccuracies, which are usually stated up front when dealing with reliable polls. That is not the same as simply assuming from the get-go they are worthless, as you are doing. Pew Global is one of the more reputable polling organizations. One can maybe argue with the poll methodology (if that was shown in the poll), or error margins, or questions asked. But, as Rune is doing, to dismiss it as if the numbers were just made up is ridiculous. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2995 "2014-05-08T17:21:20Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > It could just be that, as far as Putin is concerned, the border has moved west. The borders that separate anti-Maidan regions from pro-Maidan regions moved east last February because of pro-Maidan acts that included violence against the central government. It should be noted that the anti-Maidan public had no participation in the violence that escalated in Kiev on Maidan Square. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2996 "2014-05-08T17:45:48Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > Yes, there is always a proper, right and just way to carve up any nation. It’s called a fair referendum. It has been done a few times in Europe during the last decades and is going to happen more in the coming. Good thing too. A nation is not a religion. It’s just a way for a group of people to conveniently organise themselves. If the organisation no longer serves their needs or wishes, they should break it up and do it in a way that does. Oh, please. The idea that this is likely to be peacefully done is nonsense. For every Czechoslovakia there are 10 Yugoslavias. And Czechoslovakia was not carved up with parts given to another country. The “proper referendum” is going to involve the entire country, and there just aren’t that many times when an entire country feels like jettisoning big chunks of itself. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2997 "2014-05-08T17:46:03Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You are okay with the Islamists that voted for Morsi being disenfranchised by the Egyptian military. You should be okay with the pro-totalitarians being disenfranchised in Ukraine. Sometimes you gotta break a few eggs to make an omelette, no? If you can show that the Islamists in Egypt were located in a separate region of Ukraine and spoke a different language and had separate cultural ties from the rest of Egypt - you might have a point. But you can’t. I don’t see them as pro-totalitarians as you do. And anti-Maidan rebels had nothing to do with the violence in Kiev that started the entire crisis. The MB and the Morsi government were passive about killings of minorities in Egypt such as Shiites and Coptic Christians… And you want to compare the Russian speakers in Ukraine to the Islamists in Egypt. I won’t go were you need to go. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2998 "2014-05-08T17:53:11Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > The “proper referendum” is going to involve the entire country, and there just aren’t that many times when an entire country feels like jettisoning big chunks of itself. They want a proper referendum for their region. The Constitution was dropped to take the Russian speaking industrial region to the EU against their will and away from Russia. They can drop the Constitution to allow a regional referendum to avert civil war. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/2999 "2014-05-08T18:24:07Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Pew Global is one of the more reputable polling organizations. One can maybe argue with the poll methodology (if that was shown in the poll), or error margins, or questions asked. But, as Rune is doing, to dismiss it as if the numbers were just made up is ridiculous. This was my impression as well. Though of course, if anyone has actual evidence that they just make shit up, I am open to hearing it. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/3000 "2014-05-08T18:41:53Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > They want a proper referendum for their region. The Constitution was dropped to take the Russian speaking industrial region to the EU against their will and away from Russia. They can drop the Constitution to allow a regional referendum to avert civil war. Nice of you to say so and all, but your opinion hardly matters. I’m not talking about what I want, but what I’m afraid will actually happen. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=149) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=151)