# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/341 "2014-03-03T14:24:44Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > There’s a difference between oil and gas. > > Oil is transported in tankers and barrels, and can be traded on the open market. So long as Russia is producing oil at the same rate and selling it to _someone_, its price and availability for Europe will remain essentially the same. > > Gas is a different story. Gas - being a gas - can only be transported via pipeline, point to point. If the valve between Russia and Europe is shut, the Europeans don’t have another pipeline to supply them, and the Russians have a whole bunch of gas they have nothing to do with. It’s a big problem for both sides. > [@iLemming](#): > > [Imgur: The magic of the Internet](http://i.imgur.com/Jf0z2eG.jpg) Do any European countries have much LNG import capacity? Can the current LNG market absorb a spike in demand? It’s not like we can just start shunting our excess gas to Europe. We don’t yet have the infrastructure. A quick poke online found this: [http://www.gie.eu/index.php/maps-data/lng-map](http://www.gie.eu/index.php/maps-data/lng-map) ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/342 "2014-03-03T14:27:22Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > In that regard what is ‘inept’ about Kerry’s statement or handling of the situation in Ukraine thus far? I think “hugely hypocritical” would have been a more apt descriptor. Inept works as well though. > [@](#): > > It is aldiboronti’s comment that is inept. Kerry is not saying his own country should “behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext”. Kerry has not defended our behavior when we behaved, in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext". > > Can you argue with a ‘straight face’ that Kerry said what aldiboronti thinks he said? Not going to get into a back and forth with you and your distorsions. As I already said, I’d choose Xanax instead. Have a lovely day. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/343 "2014-03-03T14:39:21Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > Well, that’s the real-world problem. It’s pretty obvious that Russia would be fighting at a large disadvantage from the beginning. They’d be going up against the most technologically advanced and wealthy group of armies in history (I’m assuming all of NATO, not just the U.S.), in a region that neither really occupies. If we ran a thousand simulations of a conflict for the Ukraine, Russia would probably come out the loser in the vast majority of them. > > Unfortunately, any sim is a closed little world, and reflects the real world poorly. In the real world, your plan rarely survives first contact with the enemy, you have no guarantees that the fighting stays in the Ukraine, and all bets are off as to what the end result will be. That’s where I think Putin has been playing this frighteningly well. He has been threatening war, but doesn’t really intend (or want) to fight any more than Europe or the U.S. does. Nobody really wins that situation, even if it does stay limited to the Ukraine. Neither side wants to pay to rebuild it after They’ve “won” a war between these two groups there. > > Putin may be rewarded for his boldness, and that is a sobering thought, as diplomacy has unintended consequences as well. The trick in this situation will be keeping the safety on, for both sides. If Putin actually engages the Ukrainian military, I won’t be sleeping well. > > Ugh, it’s like we’ve been transported back to the 1800’s and a new “Great Game” is being run. Only this time, there’s nukes. You reflect my thoughts on this whole affair pretty closely. Though I still don’t see the technological gap between the two sides as huge as you seem to think. Russia has some mighty impressive latest generation weapons of its own that might surprise more than a few. I mean, who _really_ knows what they have in their arsenal? For instance: [New Russian Air-to-Air Missiles Will Field Almost Perfect Accuracy](http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/new-russian-air-to-air-missiles-will-field-almost-perfect-accuracy/) and [Russia tests ‘fifth generation’ missile that can penetrate Nato defence system](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/9285130/Russia-tests-fifth-generation-missile-that-can-penetrate-Nato-defence-system.html) Only one way to find out, right? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/344 "2014-03-03T14:40:55Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > John Mace has no intelligible response to my arguments… When one of your arguments shows signs of intelligence, someone might make an intelligent response to it. * * * As to the idea that we should bomb Russia and destroy it’s military, I hope **adher** is just speaking in hypotheticals. That would be an insanely stupid thing to do over something that has virtually nothing to do with US interests. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/345 "2014-03-03T14:41:39Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Un-fuckin’ believable! You just had your asses handed to you – and your allies – by two Third World backwater tribal nations and now you are boasting that you can crush (crush!) the second mightiest military in the world by basically snapping your fingers…and blinking three times real hard, I guess. > > And with a war-worn military and an economy in slow recovery due in large part to the two reckless wars you were/are involved in. Perfect timing to take on the Russian Bear. I’m not disputing the wisdom, or lack of it, of trying to kick off World War Three over the Crimea, but you realise Russia’s air force was effectively grounded by the Georgians, right, in the Russo-Georgian war? Iraq and Afghanistan regular forces never came anywhere close to putting up any sort of resistance against the US and its allies during the respective invasions. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/346 "2014-03-03T14:53:05Z")
Errrr… Come again? The Georgians shot down a couple of planes. The VVS (or whatever it us called these days) absolutely pummeled the Georguans and their infrastructure. ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/347 "2014-03-03T14:57:29Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Surprised. You are indeed capable of making a joke after all. Only inadvertently. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/348 "2014-03-03T14:59:13Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > I’m not disputing the wisdom, or lack of it, of trying to kick off World War Three over the Crimea, but you realise Russia’s air force was effectively grounded by the Georgians, right, in the Russo-Georgian war? **Iraq and Afghanistan regular forces never came anywhere close to putting up any sort of resistance against the US and its allies during the respective invasions**. – bolding mine. Not going off on this tangent as it’s been discussed to death here. But surely you jest? Let’s just say the end result of both invasions didn’t exactly turn out anywhere close to what the US wanted. In Iraq alone the US lost close to 5,000 men and suffered literally countless wounded (of which most would be dead if not for today’s rapid field triage & evacuation/treatment advances) – and you suggest they never met “any kind of resistance”? Makes one wonder what would have happened if they _had_. _:::flabbergasted:::_ \ ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/349 "2014-03-03T15:02:10Z")
He said during the invasion, not the years of occupation and he’s right. eta:but since no one thinks the West will respond this way, it’s definitely a hijack. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/350 "2014-03-03T15:05:18Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > …I mean, the U.S. may not have won in Iraq, but neither did the Iraqis. Slim pickings, don’t you think? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/351 "2014-03-03T15:07:22Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > I mean, who _really_ knows what they have in their arsenal? For instance: [New Russian Air-to-Air Missiles Will Field Almost Perfect Accuracy](http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/new-russian-air-to-air-missiles-will-field-almost-perfect-accuracy/) and [Russia tests ‘fifth generation’ missile that can penetrate Nato defence system](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/9285130/Russia-tests-fifth-generation-missile-that-can-penetrate-Nato-defence-system.html) > > Only one way to find out, right? We know what they’re _spending_ on that arsenal, so US military planners have a fairly good idea of what’s in it. For now, we have stealthy aircraft and they don’t, so an air war would be over in a matter of days or weeks (as long as we don’t have to enter Russian territory and have adequate staging facilities). ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/352 "2014-03-03T15:17:10Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > We know what they’re _spending_ on that arsenal, so US military planners have a fairly good idea of what’s in it. For now, we have stealthy aircraft and they don’t, so an air war would be over in a matter of days or weeks (as long as we don’t have to enter Russian territory and have adequate staging facilities). Oh well, if so many of you appear to be sure it would be such a cakewalk, I’d take Nike’s advice and “Just do it.” Who am I to bring down America’s hyper-inflated ego anyway? ETA: It’s not as simple a formulas as knowing their defense spending – lots to do with what _they do with it_. The US has squndered a lot of funds on dead-end/failed porjects. Have the Russians too? Do you know for sure? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/353 "2014-03-03T15:23:52Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Oh well, if so many of you appear to be sure it would be such a cakewalk, I’d take Nike’s advice and “Just do it.” > > Who am I to bring down America’s hyper-inflated ego anyway? > > ETA: It’s not as simple a formulas as knowing their defense spending – lots to do with what _they do with it_. The US has squndered a lot of funds on dead-end/failed porjects. Have the Russians too? Do you know for sure? Whether something is possible is an entirely different question from whether it is advisable. Is anyone saying we should go to war? eta: today’s featured article on Wikipedia is the Russian wwi era dreadnought Sevastopol. Not sure what to make of that. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/354 "2014-03-03T15:28:13Z")
> [@](#): > > Originally Posted by adaher (Post 17157904) Their strength pales in comparison to ours alone, plus they are using Russian equipment and have Russian levels of training. This has not worked out well in the various wars fought between Western-style and Soviet-style militaries. Short version: They would get crushed in short order…\<“Cite” > > > [@](#): > > > > (-RedFury 03-03-2014 08:18 AM) Un-fuckin’ believable! You just had your asses handed to you – and your allies – by two Third World backwater tribal nations and now you are boasting that you can crush (crush!) the second mightiest military in the world by basically snapping your fingers…and blinking three times real hard, I guess. > > > > And with a war-worn military and an economy in slow recovery due in large part to the two reckless wars you were/are involved in. Perfect timing to take on the Russian Bear. Lumping those two wars together is a common over-simplification for muddying up the non-justified basis for one of them. One was justified and one was not. But your apparent conclusion that the USA \*“just had your asses handed to you – and your allies – by two Third World backwater tribal nations.” \*is quite odd and misplaced. Not saying that Iraq was legally or morally in any way justified but what happened does not suggest the US Military or military/industrial complex got it’s ass handed to it by a third world backwater tribal nation. > [@](#): > > This marked a major shift from U.S. weapons systems, which have dominated postwar military procurement since it got under way in 2005. > > The United States has either delivered or is evaluating arms sales to Iraq totaling $19 billion. These include 36 Lockheed Martin F-16IQ Block 52 fighter jets, enough for two squadrons. > > The F-16s will be new Iraqi air force’s first combat aircraft and will be equipped with advanced missile and laser-guided bomb systems. Baghdad’s Defense Ministry says it wants 96 of the jets spread over four orders. The first batch is expected to be operational by 2015. Read more: [Iraq expected to be active in arms procurement in coming years - UPI.com](http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2013/01/04/Iraq-seen-as-major-arms-buyer-by-2020/UPI-91261357319593/#ixzz2uuXZpOpX) If you meant the prolonged duration it took the US military to stand up replacement governments in both conflicts is \*getting their asses handed to them \*… that is an oversimplification of what happened. I agree that no one here should think we and NATO could crush the Russian military some kind of conventional war. There is no way that could be done. But there is no reason to think that that the past decades of fighting in those two separate conflicts means that readiness for a conventional war has been reduced in any significant measure. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/355 "2014-03-03T15:31:44Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > I agree that no one here should think we and NATO could crush the Russian military some kind of conventional war. There is no way that could be done. Eh? Why not? Historically, fighting Russia only leads to disaster if you **invade** Russia; beyond their own borders, they can be beaten. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/356 "2014-03-03T15:55:22Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Oh well, if so many of you appear to be sure it would be such a cakewalk, I’d take Nike’s advice and “Just do it.” > > Who am I to bring down America’s hyper-inflated ego anyway? > > ETA: It’s not as simple a formulas as knowing their defense spending – lots to do with what _they do with it_. The US has squndered a lot of funds on dead-end/failed porjects. Have the Russians too? Do you know for sure? It always comes down to this sort of pissing contest, doesn’t it? Things are very far from being sorted out in this matter (between Ukraine and Russia) but it seems the least worst of all possible situations so far. No shot has been fired in anger by either side. Both sides appeare to be going about this grim business with the full understanding of realpolitik of who really wants what and where there is room for compromise. But the farther west you go, the less skin in the game, the more shrill rhetoric and posturing you hear. Here’s the thing, Putin knows he can’t hang on to all of Ukraine. But he does not want to give up strategic areas like Crimea. So he’ll take what he needs and let the rest go to EU, if the EU will still wants what’s left. In a way this makes things easier for western of Ukrainia as well because a significant population of it’s own citizens wants to remain aligned with Russia. There’s a price Ukrainia must pay for breaking off Russian ties. Putin has named the price. Ukraine is showing willingness to pay it by not responding aggressively to the Russian occupation (thus far). I hope cooler heads (than John Kerry’s\*) will prevail. - Though I can understand the US and the west making noise about this. Ukraine breaking off whole (with Crimea intact) might help diminish Russias strategic and military advantage on the Black Sea and access to the Med. Precious little chance Russia would let that happen but why not kick and scream and threaten international sanctions. Beats doing nothing at all. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/357 "2014-03-03T15:59:52Z")
From the BBC: > [@](#): > > Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 5:00 local time (03:00 GMT) on Tuesday to surrender or face an all-out assault, according to Ukrainian defence ministry sources quoted by Interfax-Ukraine news agency. “If by 5am tomorrow morning they do not surrender a real assault will begin on units and sections of the Ukrainian armed forces all over Crimea,” defence ministry officials are quoted as saying. So far there is no further confirmation of the ultimatum from other sources. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/358 "2014-03-03T16:00:28Z")
\*\*Russia’s navy has reportedly ordered Ukrainian forces in Crimea to surrender amid a major escalating of the crisis gripping the region. The ultimatum told Ukraine’s military to surrender by 4am CET or face assault, according to the Interfax news agency. The agency quoted a source at the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, who said the order was made by fleet commander Alexander Vitko.\*\* [http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/03/russian-navy-tells-ukrainian-forces-in-crimea-to-surrender---reports/](http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/03/russian-navy-tells-ukrainian-forces-in-crimea-to-surrender---reports/) ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/359 "2014-03-03T16:03:20Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > We know what they’re _spending_ on that arsenal, so US military planners have a fairly good idea of what’s in it. For now, we have stealthy aircraft and they don’t, so an air war would be over in a matter of days or weeks (as long as we don’t have to enter Russian territory and have adequate staging facilities). And unfortunately, having stealthy aircraft is going to mean jack all. The Russians are not going to engage F22’s in the air. They are going to fire volleys of missiles at the bases where they are stationed in Europe. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2014, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/360 "2014-03-03T16:06:22Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > From the BBC: Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has given \*\*Ukrainian forces in Crimea \*\*until 5:00 local time (03:00 GMT) on Tuesday to surrender or face an all-out assault, according to Ukrainian defence ministry sources quoted by Interfax-Ukraine news agency. “If by 5am tomorrow morning they do not surrender a real assault will begin on units and sections of the Ukrainian armed forces all over Crimea,” defence ministry officials are quoted as saying. So far there is no further confirmation of the ultimatum from other sources. (bolding mine) If this report is accurate, Russia appears to remain consistent in its intentions. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=19)