# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/581 "2014-03-05T10:11:31Z")
OK, **a beautiful, informative insight by former US ambassador to Russia Jack Matock** - this should be compulsory reading before posting to this thread: > [@](#): > > So where does this leave us? Some random thoughts: > > a. It has been a mistake for all the parties, those in Ukraine and those outside, to treat this crisis as a contest for control of Ukraine. > > b. Obama’s “warning” to Putin was ill-advised. Whatever slim hope that Moscow might avoid overt military intervention in Ukraine disappeared when Obama in effect threw down a gauntlet and challenged him. This was not just a mistake of political judgment—it was a failure to understand human psychology—unless, of course, he actually wanted a Russian intervention, which is hard for me to believe. > > c. At this moment it is not clear, at least to me, what the ultimate Russian intent is. I do not believe it is in Russia’s interest to split Ukraine, though they may want to detach the Crimea from it—and if they did, they would probably have the support of the majority of Crimean residents. But they may simply wish to bolster the hand of their friends in Eastern Ukraine in negotiations over the new power structure. At the very least, they are signaling that they will not be deterred by the United States from doing what they consider necessary to secure their interests in the neighborhood. > > d. Ukraine is already shattered de facto, with different groups in command of the various provinces. If there is any hope of putting it together again, there must be cooperation of all parties in forming a coalition at least minimally acceptable to Russia and the Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens in the East and South. A federation with governors elected locally and not appointed by a winner-take-all president or prime minister would be essential. Real autonomy for Crimea will also be required. > > e. Many important questions remain. One relates to the principle of “territorial integrity.” Yes, that is important, but it is not the only principle to consider. Russians would argue, with some substance in the argument, that the U.S. is interested in territorial integrity only when its interests are served. American governments have a record of ignoring it when convenient, as when it and its NATO allies violated Serbian territorial integrity by creating and then recognizing an independent Kosovo. Also, by supporting the separation of South Sudan from Sudan, Eritrea from Ethiopia, and East Timor from Indonesia. [http://jackmatlock.com/2014/03/ukraine-the-price-of-internal-division/](http://jackmatlock.com/2014/03/ukraine-the-price-of-internal-division/) ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/582 "2014-03-05T12:16:25Z")
> [@BrokenBriton](#): > > OK, **a beautiful, informative insight by former US ambassador to Russia Jack Matock** - this should be compulsory reading before posting to this thread: > > [Ukraine: The Price of Internal Division | Jack F. Matlock, Jr](http://jackmatlock.com/2014/03/ukraine-the-price-of-internal-division/) From the link… “… in\*\* negotiations \*\*over the new power structure.” My impression was that Putin has been masterfully setting up his negotiating position from the start. The control that has been exhibited on both sides to avoid serious deadly confrontation tells me that both sides have known that all along. That confrontation in front of the air base yesterday was interesting in that it kind of shows me that the "Pro-Russian Forces/Russian? Forces guarding that air base have been in control of perhaps up to 45 Ukrainian MIGS as Russian TV News said. That is significant because control of that base I’m sure made the West’s side in all this understand who weak their position is going to be… for Ukraine to get it back. If a referendum passes for Crimea to secede and become autonomous on March 30th … The West will be so pitifully weakened in the NEGOTIATIONS that are coming … Putin will get much of what he wants in the form of guarantees… like Ukraine never joins NATO and No US Missile Defense get’s built on Ukraine soil… Putiin is not ‘mad’… as in nuts or lost touch with reality… That’s an out for Merkel and anyone who thinks he is… because they know they’ve got nothing to deal with… specifically if Crimeans decided where their preference lies… and that is with Russia. He was my take on it… "let the negotiations begin: > [@](#): > > Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 17152759) How about we all accept that not everything revolves around the US and there are limits to American influence? The US can no more about a Russian invasion of Ukraine than Russia could do about a US invasion of Baja California. The notion of sending in US advisors as tripwires into the shooting gallery so that the situation would escalate in the event of their getting killed is preposterous. The only playable card we have is economic sanctions. \<“Cite” > > You are right … Actually Putin is in a much worse fight than people give him credit for. There is no long term military option for a Putin to consider. He could militarily take back Crimea militarily without really needing to fire a shot. But there is no political or moral value in that. > > The most playable card in that sanctions might have little effect is diplomatic ‘rope a dope’ as Putin flails away with lefts and rights and uppercut in anger after getting dumped on by anti-Russian rioters with Molotov Cocktails and losing a deal when a democratically elected government was ousted by violent means. > > But allowing Obama to do the rope a dope politically here in the states would take a much wiser public awareness than is even remotely possible at this time. > We are doing rope a dope anyway because that is all there is. We ought to just call it that and wait until Putin’s bare chest and knuckles get tired. > > Then let the negotiations begin. Kerry and Lavrov meet in Paris today… on schedule… ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/583 "2014-03-05T13:48:06Z")
Conspiracy theories, conflicting news reports and other subjective information noise aside, I think we’ve lost track of the only things we know for sure about this situation: 1. Ukraine has ousted it’s oligarch president because he was not acting in the best interest of the people who elected him. They are maintaining peace admirably under very tense circumstances and are moving forward towards establishing a new gov’t through an election process. 2. Russia/Putin saw it as a problematic situation and acted in self interest to protect its assets/interests in an unpredictable political climate. Any nation would do likewise under similar circumstances. 3. The United States, good intentions aside, has over-reacted with some of the particularly aggressive rhetoric because people (politicians esp.) love to rush to conclusions and to action before gathering all the necessary facts. We should wait and see how things play out instead of making wild and baseless assumptions (of which I’ve done my share). ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/584 "2014-03-05T14:02:33Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > 1. Russia/Putin saw it as a problematic situation and acted in self interest to protect its assets/interests in an unpredictable political climate. Any nation would do likewise under similar circumstances. Using your military to occupy a foreign country’s parliament does not fall, under any flight of imagination, under “protecting your assets”. ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/585 "2014-03-05T14:09:16Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Using your military to occupy a foreign country’s parliament does not fall, under any flight of imagination, under “protecting your assets”. It does fall under “protecting your interests”, particularly for a country like Russia that had a very friendly ally in Yanukovich. I think **QuickSilver** ’s analysis is correct overall. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/586 "2014-03-05T14:13:37Z")
> [@Batistuta](#): > > It does fall under “protecting your interests”, particularly for a country like Russia that had a very friendly ally in Yanukovich. Yes, occupying a foreign country can fall under “protecting your interests”. Doesn’t mean it is any less illegal or that protesting it is an “overreaction”. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/587 "2014-03-05T14:14:33Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Using your military to occupy a foreign country’s parliament does not fall, under any flight of imagination, under “protecting your assets”. Ah, but allegedly they aren’t really Russian military, and Russia can’t order them to leave. > [@](#): > > Mr Lavrov repeated the Russian president’s claim that they cannot order pro-Russian armed groups in Ukraine’s Crimea region to return to their bases because they are “self-defence” forces and do not answer to Moscow during a news conference in Madrid. > **[US and Russia hold talks as Donetsk tensions rise](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-russia-and-us-due-to-hold-talks-as-tensions-rise-in-crimea-9170107.html)** > > The US secretary of state will meet with the Russian foreign minister to discuss easing east-west tensions in Ukraine Some people in this very thread appear to believe that is true. ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/588 "2014-03-05T14:16:51Z")
This is mildly amusing, and adds to the bemusement at John Kerry statement the other day about Putin’s “bogus pretexts” (still haven’t been able to stand up straight since then) 😃 : > [@](#): > > So far as violating sovereignty is concerned, Russia would point out that the U.S. invaded Panama to arrest Noriega, invaded Grenada to prevent American citizens from being taken hostage (even though they had not been taken hostage), invaded Iraq on spurious grounds that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, targets people in other countries with drones, etc., etc. In other words, for the U.S. to preach about respect for sovereignty and preservation of territorial integrity to a Russian president can seem a claim to special rights not allowed others. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/589 "2014-03-05T14:17:52Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Ah, but allegedly they aren’t really Russian military, and Russia can’t order them to leave. Yes, but it’s a laughable allegation. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/590 "2014-03-05T14:21:28Z")
> [@BrokenBriton](#): > > This is mildly amusing, and adds to the bemusement at John Kerry statement the other day about Putin’s “bogus pretexts” (still haven’t been able to stand up straight since then) 😃 : Yet another leaf from the “two wrongs make a right” playbook. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/591 "2014-03-05T14:24:04Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Yes, but it’s a laughable allegation. True, true. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/592 "2014-03-05T14:27:45Z")
Just toclear up any confusion about “invasions”: > [@](#): > > 1. Moscow annually writes off $97.75 million of Kiev’s debt for the right to use Ukrainian waters and radio frequencies, and to compensate for the Black Sea Fleet’s environmental impact. > > 2. The Russian navy is allowed on Crimean territory up to > > - 25,000 troops, > > - 24 artillery systems with a caliber smaller than 100 mm, > > - 132 armored vehicles, and > > - 22 military planes [http://rt.com/news/russian-troops-crimea-ukraine-816/](http://rt.com/news/russian-troops-crimea-ukraine-816/) ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/593 "2014-03-05T14:29:27Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Yet another leaf from the “two wrongs make a right” playbook. Sorry, how many “wrongs”, and how many hundreds of thousands of dead women and children is John Kerry denying with his insulting bullshit? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/594 "2014-03-05T14:44:03Z")
> [@BrokenBriton](#): > > Just toclear up any confusion about “invasions”: > > [http://rt.com/news/russian-troops-crimea-ukraine-816/](http://rt.com/news/russian-troops-crimea-ukraine-816/) Are Russian troops according to [rt.com](http://rt.com) allowed to occupy Crimean parliament? ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/595 "2014-03-05T14:44:05Z")
> [@BrokenBriton](#): > > Sorry, how many “wrongs”, and how many hundreds of thousands of dead women and children is John Kerry denying with his insulting bullshit? None. Because whatever America’s sins may or may not be is _totally irrelevant_ to reacting to Russia’s current acts. A thief may denounce a theft by another, and the fact that the denouncer is a thief doesn’t somehow legitimize the denounced theft. This sort of thing is informal fallacy 101. The _tu quoque_ is the weakest possible form of argument. [http://www.fallacyfiles.org/tuquoque.html](http://www.fallacyfiles.org/tuquoque.html) ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/596 "2014-03-05T14:47:27Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Yes, occupying a foreign country can fall under “protecting your interests”. Doesn’t mean it is any less illegal or that protesting it is an “overreaction”. I never claimed that the occupation was legal, but I do understand that Russia has interests in the region. It’s not so much legal as it is predictable. As to the ‘overreaction’, I do think that the West was too quick to declare victory after Yanukovich was overthrown. Seeing that the West was already counting him out, Putin may have realised that he had to take desperate measures in order to stay in the game. ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/597 "2014-03-05T14:48:37Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > None. Because whatever America’s sins may or may not be is _totally irrelevant_ to reacting to Russia’s current acts. > > A thief may denounce a theft by another, and the fact that the denouncer is a thief doesn’t somehow legitimize the denounced theft. > > This sort of thing is informal fallacy 101. The _tu quoque_ is the weakest possible form of argument. > > [Logical Fallacy: Tu Quoque](http://www.fallacyfiles.org/tuquoque.html) That’s fascinating. No really. I particularly like the idea of “sins” like this is some kind of bible study. Back to John Kerry’s lies and bullshit, and his, erm, clumsy attempt to portray, contain and morally judge Putin’s actions in a vaccumn. Of course, it’s now clear Putin’s forces are actually in Crimea by legal agrereement so comparisons with various and ongoing US invasions of sovereignty are not relevant. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/598 "2014-03-05T14:50:26Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Are Russian troops according to [rt.com](http://rt.com) allowed to occupy Crimean parliament? Well, if _Russia Today_ says it, it must be true. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/599 "2014-03-05T14:52:03Z")
The MP that was caught with snipers rifle and silencer during the Ukraine’s protests is now Head of the coup President’s Administration 😃 How will Kerry explain that one after his tear filled speech yesterday about the snipers in Maidan? [![]( " - YouTube") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sa3YJYlJIR8) ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2014, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/600 "2014-03-05T14:53:54Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Are Russian troops according to [rt.com](http://rt.com) allowed to occupy Crimean parliament? I thought I was clarifying a media misunderstanding about “invasions” i.e. there hasn’t been one. What does the Crimean Parliament say about your issue? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=31)