# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 44
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/861 "2014-03-07T20:50:28Z")
> [@BrokenBriton](#): > > Thread’s gone too bizarre. It wasn’t bizarre when avowed haters of Franco were waving around Francoist magazines to justify their beliefs and various others were alleging all sorts of conspiracy theories but now it’s bizarre? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/862 "2014-03-07T20:54:33Z")
Well, were I either the Iranian or Israeli government this would be a great motivator to not scuttle attempts to build nuclear weapons in the former or give them up in the latter(if pressure were ever brought to bare). As for the complaints about “corruption” “anti-Semitism” and “fascists” within the Ukrainian government, I do sympathize and agree but see no evidence that Russia is any better. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/863 "2014-03-07T21:02:32Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Thanks for admitting that. Oh, no problem…I have no issue admitting it’s a nice day and you can have it. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/864 "2014-03-07T21:05:35Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Well, were I either the Iranian or Israeli government this would be a great motivator to not scuttle attempts to build nuclear weapons in the former or give them up in the latter(if pressure were ever brought to bare). Agreed - at this point, you’d have to be nuts to give up nukes in return for “international guarantees” that “your territory will be respected” or somesuch. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/865 "2014-03-07T21:09:52Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > The problem is that Putin is getting the message he can take what he likes and no-one will do squat. Why would he take seriously any “shoring up” of other terrories? Shoring up is taken seriously if it is done seriously, simple as that. The NATO expansion is taken seriously\*. Serious economic investment is taken seriously. Russia only pushes on it’s borders so there really isn’t that many countries to shore up if we actually give a shit. But in many cases we don’t. Where are the countries that we have some moral obligation to protect that don’t already have military or strong economics ties with? Which of those countries won’t become terrorist factories for good old Russia? \*eta: but pushing for NATO membership for Ukraine right now would be too provocative, might force Russia’s hand with regards to the rest of the country. Maybe we can sneak it in when we know how this shakes out. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/866 "2014-03-07T21:14:03Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > It is funny though. “It is not a good idea, but it is the correct move.”. I wonder if NFBW is [Viktor Chernomyrdin](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Chernomyrdin#Sayings) that came back to life and learned English. I said it was the correct move ‘for Putin’ and explain why. Of course you snipped my statement into fragments and put it back as quotes. Here’s the full statement: "I have not argued it is a good idea what Putin is doing. I think it was the correct move for Putin when the president of Ukraine was overthrown that he thinks will brings the whole shitstorm that the Ukraine’s cyclic upheaval and tug of war between west and east and NATO and missile defense dreams for leftover Reagan disciples to an end. " If you have no opposition to what I said why snip it up and comment at all? If you do - let’s see what you got without the scissors. As an ‘idea’ to do what Putin is doing it is not good becsuse there is risk and danger when being so bold and confrontational with military force. As a move to end this endless cycle of Ukraine back and forth crisis after crisis destabilizing the region I think it is correct for Putin. Putin has the power because he can act alone smack the EU US and NATO players up the side of the head and make them pay attention to him. Putin holds some cards but on that end of his national borders he is one against many. He let the many know he is not to be trifled with and played he fool. They got the message don’t you think? It’s not a good idea to do something as dangerous as Putin has done. But as a move for Putin he might get some big issues resolved this way that cannot be resolved in any other way. Or he may be weakened if sanction further harm his economy. Well see how the EU holds up and counters the move he boldly laid on them. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/867 "2014-03-07T21:16:12Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Oh, no problem…I have no issue admitting it’s a nice day and you can have it. Well you are wrong. It is raining here and its not that nice. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/868 "2014-03-07T21:17:28Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Especially when you consider promises made to the Ukraine to guarantee it’s sovereignty in exchange for it’s nuclear weapons. Basically, why should anyone else believe any sort of promise from the West if Russia is allowed to do what it wants here and gets away with it with, to paraphrase an earlier poster, a shrug and a wave and best wishes that it turns out ok? That deal was of course signed by Russia as well, and they’re the ones actually breaking their promise. The 1994 deal did not state any obligation on the part of a country to defend Ukraine. The only country breaking their word here is Russia. The long term results of this are all bad, and Russia will suffer as much as anyone because now all their neighbours trust them less than ever before and will be motivated to arm themselves accordingly. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/869 "2014-03-07T21:22:02Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Shoring up is taken seriously if it is done seriously, simple as that. The NATO expansion is taken seriously. Serious economic investment is taken seriously. Russia only pushes on it’s borders so there really isn’t that many countries to shore up if we actually give a shit. But in many cases we don’t. Where are the countries that we have some moral obligation to protect that don’t already have military or strong economics ties with? Which of those countries won’t become terrorist factories for good old Russia? “Terrorist factories”? I’m not following. One only hopes that NATO membership means more than the guarantee given by the US, Russia and others to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, in return for Ukraine giving up nukes, which apparently means very little. My guess is that if Russia pulled some sort of stunt like this in (say) Latvia or Estonia, there would be tons of pressure to do nothing about it because ‘holding a referendum on seperation is not an invasion’, etc. etc. We in the West, and particularly the Euros, are not exactly giving Russia an impression of firm resistance to aggression here, which may well tempt him to go further and further - ultimately leading to a place where we will _have_ to fight. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/870 "2014-03-07T21:28:38Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > The problem is that Putin is getting the message he can take what he likes and no-one will do squat. Why would he take seriously any “shoring up” of other terrories? Is that shooting war ‘squat’? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/871 "2014-03-07T21:29:05Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] That deal was of course signed by Russia as well, and they’re the ones actually breaking their promise. [/QUOTE] Yep. All parties (the US, Russia, the UK and I think Ireland IIRC) basically guarantee Ukrainian sovereignty and refrain from acts of aggression against it, in return for the Ukraine signing the NNPT and giving up it’s (formerly Soviet) nukes. > [@](#): > > The 1994 deal did not state any obligation on the part of a country to defend Ukraine. The only country breaking their word here is Russia. Nope, it doesn’t obligate anyone to actively defend the Ukraine from any aggression…but it does say support if it happens. I believe (and this is again from memory as I don’t have time to look it up) that the signatories are obliged to take any economic or military aggression or other similar disputes to the UN for resolution. > [@](#): > > The long term results of this are all bad, and Russia will suffer as much as anyone because now all their neighbours trust them less than ever before and will be motivated to arm themselves accordingly. I think Putin miscalculated, but it will all really hinge on how this plays out in the end. Like I said, I think the Crimea is a done deal at this point, except for the shouting. If there is little more fallout for Putin and Russia than some hand-wringage by the US and Western Europe then I’d say it’s a win…if there is fallout, and has a real impact on Russia then I’d go with a loss, even if they come out with the Crimea as a new shinny state in mother Russia. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/872 "2014-03-07T21:41:21Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > “Terrorist factories”? I’m not following. > > One only hopes that NATO membership means more than the guarantee given by the US, Russia and others to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, in return for Ukraine giving up nukes, which apparently means very little. > > My guess is that if Russia pulled some sort of stunt like this in (say) Latvia or Estonia, there would be tons of pressure to do nothing about it because ‘holding a referendum on seperation is not an invasion’, etc. etc. > > We in the West, and particularly the Euros, are not exactly giving Russia an impression of firm resistance to aggression here, which may well tempt him to go further and further - ultimately leading to a place where we will _have_ to fight. Utterly ridiculous. Yes, one would hope that a military treaty of mutual defence such as NATO would mean more than a vague respect for territorial integrity. So that’s your fear? Russian separatists in Estonia will get Russia to invade a NATO country? Met with meek Western acceptance? You think Putin is so idiotic as to read that as the “message” we are sending him? ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/873 "2014-03-07T22:03:11Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Utterly ridiculous. Yes, one would hope that a military treaty of mutual defence such as NATO would mean more than a vague respect for territorial integrity. So that’s your fear? Russian separatists in Estonia will get Russia to invade a NATO country? Met with meek Western acceptance? You think Putin is so idiotic as to read that as the “message” we are sending him? Russia will not “invade”. It claims it hasn’t “invaded” Crimea. A couple of months ago, I’d have said that Russia doing what it is doing now was utterly impossible. Article 5 of NATO states as follows: > [@](#): > > The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. I am guessing from the replies in this very thread that many, many people would argue that what is happening right now is not an “armed attack”. And yes, I expect meekness. If a bunch of ethnic Russians, backed by Russia, pushed for independence in a province of (say) Estonia, what do you think would happen? Would the NATO Euro-members agree that Article 5 had been triggered and launch a war against Russia? No way. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/874 "2014-03-07T22:24:30Z")
I expect a full on NATO “exercise” would be organized and running in Estonia before any Russian backing made any difference. Maybe those poor spineless Europeans will drag their heels but it’d get done. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/875 "2014-03-07T22:51:20Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > We in the West, and particularly the Euros, are not exactly giving Russia an impression of firm resistance to aggression here, which may well tempt him to go further and further - ultimately leading to a place where we will _have_ to fight. What if Putin is not tempted to move beyond Crimea? Will it then have been wise that the West chose not to use military force to drive Russian Federation Forces off Crimean soil and send the Russian fleet to the bottom of the Bkack Sea? Or was it wiser to proceed as the West had now been engaged? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/876 "2014-03-07T23:09:35Z")
[**US a full partner in Ukraine debacle**](http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/columns/2014/03/03/cold-war-over-russia-isn-zero-sum/Df9VSHeJFpKUz3tRKDjUXJ/story.html) > [@](#): > > **FROM THE moment the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the United States has relentlessly pursued a strategy of encircling Russia, just as it has with other perceived enemies like China and Iran. It has brought 12 countries in central Europe, all of them formerly allied with Moscow, into the NATO alliance. US military power is now directly on Russia’s borders.** > > “I think it is the beginning of a new cold war,” warned George Kennan, the renowned diplomat and Russia-watcher, as NATO began expanding eastward. “I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely, and it will affect their policies.” > > Russia’s dispatch of troops in recent days to Crimea — a verdant peninsula on the Black Sea that is part of Ukraine but, partly as a result of Stalin-era ethnic cleansing, has a mainly Russian population — was the latest fulfillment of Kennan’s prediction. > > Some policy makers in Washington have been congratulating each other for a successful American-aided regime change operation in Ukraine. Three factors converged to produce the overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych. First was his own autocratic instinct and utter lack of political skill, which led him to think he could ignore protesters. Second was the brave determination of the protesters themselves. Third was intervention by the United States and other Western countries — often spearheaded by diplomats and quasi-covert operatives who have been working for years on “democracy promotion” projects in Ukraine. > > **As protests mounted in Kiev last month, many in Washington found it difficult to break the old habit of shaping US policy to punish Russia. Several European leaders suggested resolving the Ukraine crisis through negotiation with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. This enraged the United States, which wants to isolate Putin, not accommodate him.** > > \ > > **Although Russia is not powerful enough to emerge from the Ukraine/Crimea crisis with a full victory, neither is the United States.** Diplomatic pressure and covert action supporting pro-Western factions in Ukraine will continue, but President Obama will not risk military confrontation with Russia. This crisis will not produce the grand westward realignment of which many in Washington dream. > > Any solution short of partition will have to take Russia’s interests into account. Thus far the United States has shown no interest in doing that. The likely geopolitical outcome, therefore, is a stalemate. > > **Inside Ukraine, the story is different. Protesters there, encouraged by the United States, have used the power of the street to depose a deeply corrupt — though legally elected — president. But soon they may find they have little to celebrate** … ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/877 "2014-03-07T23:14:32Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > [**US a full partner in Ukraine debacle**](http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/columns/2014/03/03/cold-war-over-russia-isn-zero-sum/Df9VSHeJFpKUz3tRKDjUXJ/story.html) Well, life in the Soviet World sucked. Crimea river. 🙂 Russia had to go through some tough times and the water’s still brown and undrinkable, but things have gotten better overall. Russia could have just joined the rest of civilized Europe, sold them gas and oil, imported lots of western goodies, etc. So what if Russia “lost.” Time for them to grow up. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/878 "2014-03-07T23:17:34Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > [**US a full partner in Ukraine debacle**](http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/columns/2014/03/03/cold-war-over-russia-isn-zero-sum/Df9VSHeJFpKUz3tRKDjUXJ/story.html) I notice you edited the OP to hide the part where Kinzer claims the Ukrainian opposition is dominated by gangsters who are explicitly against it becoming a pro-western regime. Was that a coincidence? Did you actually read the article or did you just skim it and miss the part that contradict your thesis. Or did you deliberately omit it. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2014, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/879 "2014-03-07T23:22:06Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > [**US a full partner in Ukraine debacle**](http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/columns/2014/03/03/cold-war-over-russia-isn-zero-sum/Df9VSHeJFpKUz3tRKDjUXJ/story.html) Thank you, Captain Obvious. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2014, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/880 "2014-03-08T00:23:03Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > I notice you edited the OP to hide the part where Kinzer claims the Ukrainian opposition is dominated by gangsters who are explicitly against it becoming a pro-western regime. > > Was that a coincidence? > > Did you actually read the article or did you just skim it and miss the part that contradict your thesis. > > Or did you deliberately omit it. Actually the article says the country is dominated by crooked oligarchs, not the opposition. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=43) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=45)