# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 65
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1281 "2014-03-16T01:31:55Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > How about if he fled ahead of an angry mob? > > Is it fair to say the country was in a state of near anarchy because a violent protest was happening in the capital? Or did I miss something? Yes, it is fair to say that. What should the remaining government have done? Gone Napoleon in Paris and fired shot into the streets and turned Kiev into a blood bath? I’m looking at it from a perspective of you’re now left with no President and you’re in the Ukrainian Parliament. I’m not 100% sure what the right move is, and I don’t think it’s a situation in which they acted all that badly. Maybe in retrospect if they had gone through the motions of trying to go through the full process “in absentia” it would have given Russia less pretext to act, but Russia’s primary pretext was basically that things were now dangerous in Crimea for Russians so I’m not really sure if things would have played out differently on either side if they had gone that route. Is it at least fair to say that it’s a bit strange that some people are so hard on the Ukrainian Parliament not following the technical letter of the law but ignore the actual text of treaties Putin has signed and is _without doubt_ violating? ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1282 "2014-03-16T01:36:58Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > A warmongerer? And you term my post embarrassing? Yep, because it was embarrassing. Putin has started several wars for Russia’s benefit, manipulated other wars for Russia’s benefit etc. Actually let me correct that–for Putin’s idealized version of Russia’s benefit. I think much of his actions have not and will not be good for Russia long term, and are in fact bad for Russia. Crimea is a prime example as it will be an economic drain on Russia pretty much in perpetuity all for some Putin ego-boosting. About the only thing I give Putin a pass on is the stuff in Chechnya, that was a brutal situation that probably required some level of Russian military action like he ended up utilizing. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1283 "2014-03-16T01:50:15Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Maybe in retrospect if they had gone through the motions of trying to go through the full process “in absentia” it would have given Russia less pretext to act, No, not in retrospect. All along. Stupid bullshit move with an interim government deal in place. > [@](#): > > Is it at least fair to say that it’s a bit strange that some people are so hard on the Ukrainian Parliament not following the technical letter of the law but ignore the actual text of treaties Putin has signed and is _without doubt_ violating? It’s only strange when you refuse to accept both sides are full of shit. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1284 "2014-03-16T01:57:38Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > No, not in retrospect. All along. Stupid bullshit move with an interim government deal in place. But in your own words, there were rioters in the street, correct? How should the interim government have gotten that situation resolved when the people were literally demanding Yanukovych leave? Further, if they had followed the “trial in absentia” route do you believe it would have prevented Putin from invading Crimea? I don’t see how, since it doesn’t remove the pretext for the invasion. > [@](#): > > It’s only strange when you refuse to accept both sides are full of shit. I refuse to accept absolute equivalence between all actions. I think the Ukrainian Parliament was in a dire situation and the President of the country had fled in disgrace, under pretty much all historical and reasonable standards they did in my mind enough to make their actions legitimate–by holding at least a vote. You contend maybe they should have done more, and I say “maybe” but I doubt it changes in any way the Russian response. It also raises the possibility of things getting very violent in Kiev. But nothing the Ukrainian Parliament did, at least to me, makes it okay for Putin to sponsor a bunch of gangsters rolling into the country without uniforms and then following it up with actual troops. It doesn’t make it okay for Putin to interfere in the internal politics of a sovereign state, to prop up a parliament in Crimea loyal to him, for those gangsters he sponsored to harass independent journalists and anyone who voices pro-Ukraine opinions in Crimea, to seize independent media outlets in Crimea and etc. To me it’s like saying the family next door, the parents are engaged in a fist fight, so I’m going to steal one of the kids and the family dog and all’s cool. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1285 "2014-03-16T02:36:53Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > In context, you said there was a collapse of law that let fascists takeover. Then the fascist government inexplicably arrests fascists. In context, you are a schizophrenic debater. keep that in “mind”, as it were. I am posting following exchange to show full and true context: On 03-03-2014 at 09:51 PM RickJay wrote: > [@](#): > > I’m curious as to what your position on Crimean independence was before this entire fiasco began and you decided Vladimir Putin was just the coolest. This was my reply at 03-04-2014 at 06:33 AM to that comment: > [@](#): > > It matters not what I think about Crimean Independence… it was not an issue up until now… it is entirely up to the resident’s there and they should work something out with the Tatars. I am beginning to see slanted reporting from western journalists that needs to be reviewed and carefully scrutinized. One thing I see emerging because of reporting on all fronts and in conversations with relatives in Russia yesterday, is that 'right wrong or indifferent, the Russian Speaking Ukrainians who listen to Russian TV News and Russians at home (one relative is a doctor/top administrator and the other is a police officer) and another relative living in Germany who watches Russian and German TV news are entirely and firmly convinced that the new leadership there by riot not election are fascists on a scale not seen since the Nazi’s were the threat to that part of the world. > > It is exaggerated I know… but I am observing the reality in Crimea that these people are motivated or can be motivated to act very much contrary to how the west wants them to act. The west has lost a major PR effort in selling this Kiev revolution as a good thing to the most important ‘strategic’ people who matter. > > You can’t blame all this on Putin’s mad dog quest to restore the Soviet Union to its once great vast empire. My father in law was fiercely anti-Putin until now. He’s doing the Russian version of ‘given em hell Harry’ right now and by 'em I mean the west and the fascists they are supporting and propping up in Ukraine. They are entirely of the impression in Russia that Crimea is now an autonomous state and it was accomplished without firing a shot. If the fascists don’t like it too bad. \ > **Not saying they are right about the fascists but that emotional appeal which is working makes it believable for me that Crimea will be independent** , And it would not be for fear of Russia… it is for fear of fascism and Ukrainian anti-Russian nationalism and the mess the West has help make in Kiev and all the other anti-Russian areas. > > There was something being passed that speaking Russian in Ukraine was banned. That inflamed a lot of this. The armed guards that took over the Crimean Legislature and airports and bases were in part according to many reports the former security forces that confronted the rioters in Kiev… They made it to Crimea where they were welcomed … and were very early making the moves for Crimean independence. . > Sketchy yet but there was to be an open debate in the Crimean Legislature when Tatars showed up to showed there disapproval… Two pro-Russian people were killed and the debate was canceled… Later this inflamed more passion toward independence. > > I do intend to witness events as they unfold and listen to all sides in this conflict. I refuse to have my mind strapped to the westernized news media’s version as some kind of final verdict on all this. It took a year for the West to quietly publish the truth about Sakaashvilli launching dozens of Grad Rockets on homes and business where women and children and Russian peacekeepers were preparing to retire for the night. > I have stated my dislike of Putin and why, but it was on the other Ukraine thread. So I don’t fault you for not knowing that. But you should not make assumptions that you cannot back up. I have shown the words in Blue that Carnalk should understand why. If Carnalk does not get it yet, I will be posting a further explanation in my next post. Remember that I wrote, " **It is exaggerated I know** … And I wrote: **Not saying they are right about the fascists but that emotional appeal which is working makes it believable for me that Crimea will be independent** , Quoting people out of context is wrong, ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1286 "2014-03-16T02:52:55Z")
On 03-15-2014 at 02:01 PM (075a fa) I posted this report: > [@](#): > > KHARKOV, March 15, 8:05 /ITAR-TASS/. The operation to detain militants from the Right Sector radical Ukrainian organization, who opened fire and took hostages in the southern Ukrainian city of Kharkov, has been completed, the interior minister of the Kharkov Region, Anatoly Dmitriyev, said Saturday. … [http://en.itar-tass.com/world/723658](http://en.itar-tass.com/world/723658) And on 03-15-2014 at 02:01 PM I made this comment: > [@](#): > > It is good see the Urkaine’s police arresting these fascists. How many more are there? Then on 03-15-2014 at 05:03 PM Carnalk had this to say: > [@](#): > > My goodness. How did that happen with the complete breakdown of law that you talked about and fascists in charge of the government? At 03-15-2014 at 05:13 PM I requested Carnalk to Provide a: > [@](#): > > Cite? So at 03-15-2014 at 06:08 PM CarnalK cited this: > [@](#): > > Originally Posted by NotfooledbyW (Post 17193609) Following the total collapse of law and the illegal overthrow the Executive Branch in Kiev Seven minutes later on 03-15-2014 at 06:15 PM CarnalK cited this: > [@](#): > > Originally Posted by NotfooledbyW (Post 17160250) It looks like it won’t be too hard for a majority in Crimea to vote to separate themselves from fascists. And wrote quite explicitly: > [@](#): > > Did you forget or something? Why ask for cites on your basic stance in the thread? On 03-15-2014 at 07:18 PM I responded to Carnalk: > [@](#): > > It’s plainly obvious that I’ve been talking about constitutional law And finally 03-15-2014 at 07:31 PM CarnalK goes here: > [@](#): > > In context, you said there was a collapse of law that let fascists takeover. Then the fascist government inexplicably arrests fascists. In context, you are a schizophrenic debater. keep that in “mind”, as it were. Now I present the readers of this forum with the TRUTH: Recall that at 06:15 PM today (see above) Carnalk snipped this bit from what I wrote on 03-03-2014 at 08:44 PM " _“It looks like it won’t be too hard for a majority in Crimea to vote to separate themselves from fascists”_ Now I will post what was written by me on 03-03-2014 at 08:44 PM : On 03-03-2014 at 07:11 PM Carnalk wrote: > [@](#): > > I think the context intended was that one (Crimea) was under military duress when it did it’s overthrowing and it did it in secret. On 03-03-2014 at 08:44 PM I responded to Carnalk as follows: > [@](#): > > Maybe, but if it was military duress then it is not now. It looks like it won’t be too hard for a majority in Crimea to vote to separate themselves from fascists. It looks as if Russian TV has its pretty good version of Fox News. When it comes to agitating without a firm reliance on facts. When it comes to agitating without a firm reliance on facts When it comes to agitating without a firm reliance on facts It looks as if Russian TV has its pretty good version of Fox News. When it comes to agitating without a firm reliance on facts. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1287 "2014-03-16T02:57:22Z")
What worries me is I think the Obama response on Monday will be primarily economic, which I believe he will see as a “middle ground” approach and less “belligerent” than some of the options I’ve outlined. But I think it’s a poor calculation for a few reasons: 1. Closer economic ties with Russia make conflicts with Russia less likely, and make both us and Russia care more about the relationship we have. In the grand scheme of things Russia is a “minor” trade partner from the U.S. perspective. Compare it to our relationship with China, China is our #2 trading partner and we are their #1 trading partner for exports. And in fact China is our #3 trading partner for exports also. It’s a very important trading relationship for both countries in both directions (they like/want to buy a lot of our stuff, we like/want to buy a lot more of their stuff.) I think this makes bad relations between China and the United States much less likely than with Russia. We have serious differences with China on a range of issues and it results in flare ups from time to time, but in the whole I actually see them ultimately get either resolved or both agree to disagree. I’d say both China and Russia are more cautious toward each other than Russia is to us. So making the reaction to Sunday’s referendum primarily economic actually just sets the stage for an economic Cold War which will make negative interactions with Russia _more likely, not less likely_. Instead we should try to protect and even grow our trade relationship with Russia. 1. Economic sanctions does nothing to get to the root of the problem, which is a fear of future Russian belligerence in Europe, especially against NATO allies. A move to put bases in Poland or Estonia for example actually strikes at the root of the problem. Further, it’s an intra-NATO shuffling of assets to which Russia has no valid complaint and I suspect even Putin would have a hard time selling Russians on going to economic war with the West over moving troops from Germany to Poland and Estonia. Russia needs trade with the United States a lot more than we need trade with them (the trade balance is -$15bn for us, so they benefit from the relationship and further their much smaller economy is impact much more by the relationship while we are impacted only very little by the relationship comparatively), so Russia would be unlikely to cut off trade unless it is in response to us limiting trade through sanctions. 2. A military deployment response, to Baltic Republics and Poland, leaves Russia little rational or realistic response options and effectively establishes “trip wires” where we need t hem. Russia certainly would not be likely to go to economic war over us moving troops around, and thus we could actually build our economic relationship while also positioning our military in a way that probably dissuades any Russian action in the countries where we would be compelled to react militarily. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1288 "2014-03-16T05:31:04Z")
On 03-15-2014 at 08:29 PM Martin Hyde wrote: > [@](#): > > FWIW where things are now, we need to stay out of Ukraine. Obama was correct to deny military aid. If Putin doesn’t just go ahead and conquer the rest of Ukraine we can look at giving them military protection down the road when the situation is less dire. But we could have I pulled Ukraine into NATO or the EU much faster, but the West drug its feet. I take exception to the 20/20 hindsight conclusion that we could have pulled Ukraine into NATO or the EU much faster. That is because polling of public opinion before the change in government show NATO was considered a threat (29%) than those seeing it as protection (17%) The rest view NATO as neither a threat or protection. Should NATO impose it’s will on the people. Should it even try? > [@](#): > > Before Crisis, Ukrainians More Likely to See NATO as a Threat > > [http://www.gallup.com/poll/167927/crisis-ukrainians-likely-nato-threat.aspx%3Futm\_source%3D](http://www.gallup.com/poll/167927/crisis-ukrainians-likely-nato-threat.aspx%3Futm_source%3D)… > > 1 day ago … Although Ukraine pursued NATO membership under pro-Western … to vote this weekend on whether to join Russia, viewed NATO as a threat last year. … at the time of the 2013 Gallup survey was highest in the East (60%), … An Excerpt: > [@](#): > > While Ukrainians’ attitudes may have changed given Russia’s recent actions in Crimea, approval of Russia at the time of the 2013 Gallup survey was highest in the East (60%), which is home to many ethnic Russians. Approval of Russia’s leadership was much lower in the Central region (42%) and particularly low in the West (25%). What do you man by pulling Ukraine into NATO? What do you do to pull when 73% don’t want NATO or don’t particularly care to be under NATO or not?. Why not leave them alone on joining NATO because joining NATO really divides Ukraine along east and west lines. It an explosive and dangerous issue to me that was better left alone. Ukraine withdrew its bid in 2010 as the same link to Gallup shows: > [@](#): > > the country ended its membership bid in 2010 under President Viktor Yanukovich. Dropping the bid may have neutralized the threat for many Ukrainians, with at least four in 10 or more likely to see NATO as neither protection nor a threat since that time. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1289 "2014-03-16T06:42:42Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I’m typically on board for bashing Kerry and Obama but I see no real reason to have focused on a “proper referendum in Crimea.” The international community is rightly outraged and the illegal invasion for pure territorial greed because we haven’t seen that in Europe, literally since World War II. There’s a reason people who usually like to avoid the hyperbole (and risk of the retarded “Godwin rule”) are actually saying this has “shades of 1939” and etc. From the Russian perspective the expansionist and war mongers is the West, using organisations such as NATO to encroach closer and closer on Russia, breaking a lot of prior agreements on the way. Ukraine was just the last straw. Largely today’s Russia is an enemy we created because we choose to do so. I have a really hard time following your argumentation. On the one hand you agree that Crimea wants to be part of Russia. On the other hand you want the West to censure Russia for land grabbing? But if Crimea wants to be part of Russia the only just and reasonable, and workable, route to go forward is to allow this to happen. There are two ways this could play out: the Czechoslovakia way, or the Yugoslavian way. I’m all for going with the first, and letting people peacefully decide what nation they want to be part of. Which is what referendums are for. The reason Ukraine hasn’t and could not have become a member of or even a closer partner of NATO is that everybody has known since 1991 that this very conflict was simmering and would blow up sometime. Same reason the so-called Orange Revolution failed. I was in Sevastopol five years ago, public buildings including the mayors office were flying the Russian flags, people here and in the rest of Crimea watched Russian television, followed Russian politics and culture news, rubles were common currency, etc. What did people think was going to happen? It was stupidity to try to bring Ukraine closer to EU and NATO until this basic internal division had been dealt with. And it has not been dealt with by just Crimea. Ukraine is pretty much a failed state at this point. I don’t know if it could ever have been made to work, but certainly this Western focus on only the western part of Ukraine and disregard of the very Russian parts have only made the situation worse. Going forward, I think the only long-term workable solution for Ukraine is to work towards a partitioning of Ukraine into a ethnically homogenous state. Letting the regions that feel Russian fall back to Russia. In any case, Russia is just too big to slap effective sanctions on. It’s like when India developed nuclear weapons a few years ago it was slapped with some sanctions. I haven’t followed, but I’d guess they’re all but gone now. You can’t sanction a billion+ people and try to keep them out of the global community, economic and otherwise. And you can’t sanction Russia, unless you really think a new Cold War is a good idea. Actually you can’t period, because China is not going to play ball. > [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Crimea was lost the day Yanukovych was legally impeached Crimea is not a prize to be won. It is the home of the people living in Crimea, and the sole prerogative of the people to decide where they want to belong. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1290 "2014-03-16T07:00:30Z")
> [@Grim\_Render](#): > > Seems to me it emerges from a profound difference in worldviews. Western civilization views political power as fundamentally resting on legitimacy with the public, and held in trust for them. Laws mediate the transfer of power. No. That’s what I don’t understand by the Western apologists. By all means the population of Crimea is massively in favour of Russian troops on the ground and being part of Russia. And yet we seem dead set on insisting on some suspect juridical illegality of the matter. I absolutely agree the only political and juridical legitimacy rests with the people. So we should have tried to give the people their fair say by working with the referendum. Why would we even try to force Crimea to stay in Ukraine when its against the wish of the population? It certainly doesn’t put us on the moral high ground to be seen playing real politics against the express wish of the majority. Btw. the Crimean General Prosecutor Natalya Polonskaya (image google!) just voice pretty much exactly what you wrote: the legitimacy of the constitution comes from the people and not from the government and cannot be commandeered by the government or juridical system (she seems a tad nervous: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahp-xCa1MXY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahp-xCa1MXY)) ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1291 "2014-03-16T07:04:52Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > No. That’s what I don’t understand by the Western apologists. By all means the population of Crimea is massively in favour of Russian troops on the ground and being part of Russia. How do you know? How _would_ you know? Yes, 58% are Russians - but lots and lots of those Russians don’t want to be part of Russia. So how would you know that the population of Crimea is “massively” in favor of Russian troops on the ground and being part of Russia? See [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9Dk2emDU0o](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9Dk2emDU0o) The guy interviews quite a few Russians who definitely are not in favor of Russian troops being there and emphatically do not want to be part of Russia. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1292 "2014-03-16T07:23:55Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > From the Russian perspective the expansionist and war mongers is the West, using organisations such as NATO to encroach closer and closer on Russia, breaking a lot of prior agreements on the way. Ukraine was just the last straw. Largely today’s Russia is an enemy we created because we choose to do so. > > I have a really hard time following your argumentation. On the one hand you agree that Crimea wants to be part of Russia. On the other hand you want the West to censure Russia for land grabbing? But if Crimea wants to be part of Russia the only just and reasonable, and workable, route to go forward is to allow this to happen. There are two ways this could play out: the Czechoslovakia way, or the Yugoslavian way. I’m all for going with the first, and letting people peacefully decide what nation they want to be part of. Which is what referendums are for. > > The reason Ukraine hasn’t and could not have become a member of or even a closer partner of NATO is that everybody has known since 1991 that this very conflict was simmering and would blow up sometime. Same reason the so-called Orange Revolution failed. I was in Sevastopol five years ago, public buildings including the mayors office were flying the Russian flags, people here and in the rest of Crimea watched Russian television, followed Russian politics and culture news, rubles were common currency, etc. What did people think was going to happen? It was stupidity to try to bring Ukraine closer to EU and NATO until this basic internal division had been dealt with. And it has not been dealt with by just Crimea. Ukraine is pretty much a failed state at this point. I don’t know if it could ever have been made to work, but certainly this Western focus on only the western part of Ukraine and disregard of the very Russian parts have only made the situation worse. > > Going forward, I think the only long-term workable solution for Ukraine is to work towards a partitioning of Ukraine into a ethnically homogenous state. Letting the regions that feel Russian fall back to Russia. In any case, Russia is just too big to slap effective sanctions on. It’s like when India developed nuclear weapons a few years ago it was slapped with some sanctions. I haven’t followed, but I’d guess they’re all but gone now. You can’t sanction a billion+ people and try to keep them out of the global community, economic and otherwise. And you can’t sanction Russia, unless you really think a new Cold War is a good idea. Actually you can’t period, because China is not going to play ball. > > Crimea is not a prize to be won. It is the home of the people living in Crimea, and the sole prerogative of the people to decide where they want to belong. Good stuff. Are you in Crimea’s time zone? if so any news on the vote getting started? ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1293 "2014-03-16T07:23:56Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > How do you know? How _would_ you know? Yes, 58% are Russians - but lots and lots of those Russians don’t want to be part of Russia. So how would you know that the population of Crimea is “massively” in favor of Russian troops on the ground and being part of Russia? I don’t. That’s why I wrote “by all means.” And as I wrote before ([http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17196782&postcount=1208](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17196782&postcount=1208)), that is why the situation needed a good and fair referendum. So that I, you, and everybody else could know. Until then I go by people I know living there, and by Western experts. The general consensus I get seems to be that there are 60%-80% in favour of going the Russian way. A similar referendum in 1992 came back with 80+% in favor of independence from Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1294 "2014-03-16T07:36:16Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > I don’t. That’s why I wrote “by all means.” Then I guess I don’t know what “by all means” means. What did you mean by it? > [@](#): > > Until then I go by people I know living there, and by Western experts. Sure. Do you know all the “people living there”? > [@](#): > > The general consensus I get seems to be that there are 60%-80% in favour of going the Russian way. Oh I don’t doubt it. Under Russian guns I would be surprised if it wouldn’t be 80%. > [@](#): > > A similar referendum in 1992 came back with 80+% in favor of independence from Ukraine. Cite? I know that Crimean parliament in 1992 voted for independence, then voted against it, and wanted to do a referendum, then didn’t want to do a referendum. But I don’t remember that referendum being held. And if everyone is so gung-ho pro-Russia in Crimea, can you explain why the guy who now, on Russian bayonets, is its “President” in the last elections there got only 5% of the vote? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1295 "2014-03-16T07:50:03Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > No. That’s what I don’t understand by the Western apologists. By all means the population of Crimea is massively in favour of Russian troops on the ground and being part of Russia. And yet we seem dead set on insisting on some suspect juridical illegality of the matter. I absolutely agree the only political and juridical legitimacy rests with the people. So we should have tried to give the people their fair say by working with the referendum. Why would we even try to force Crimea to stay in Ukraine when its against the wish of the population? It certainly doesn’t put us on the moral high ground to be seen playing real politics against the express wish of the majority. > > Btw. the Crimean General Prosecutor Natalya Polonskaya (image google!) just voice pretty much exactly what you wrote: the legitimacy of the constitution comes from the people and not from the government and cannot be commandeered by the government or juridical system (she seems a tad nervous: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahp-xCa1MXY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahp-xCa1MXY)) I was reading back through some time lines between Feb 28 and March 4 or so and one thing that stood out was that one moment there were Ukrainian Police cordoning off the Parliament Building in one photo I saw. Then it was described that they just melted away. That was the point I believe when the Kiev government in the midst of its self induced chaos … lost Crimea. It was not at that point a take over of Crimea from the Ukraine by “Russian Troops” in the sense of what is normally thought of an invasion. It may have had some Russian covert and secret planning etc… But there also is a very interesting look of spontaneity by locals who kind of formed their own defense department and militia in a matter of days. When the Ukraine government lost its ability to control and protect the citizens of Crimea they lost the ability to govern and to hold it. The same goes for the Ukrainian military bases on Crimean territory. The early moments of this time line I believe are still shrouded in the mystery of how much of it was Ukrainian security forces deserting their posts versus the threat of armed force against those Ukrainians by the pro-Russian Crimeans and actual Russian forces themselves. Its as if we went to bed one night thinking Putin had been dealt a devastating blow by the Western bloc allied against him and woke up the next morning and Crimea was quietly ‘taken’ away without a shot being fired. The agitated western minds here about this and elsewhere are having difficulty fathoming that moment when they all woke up and realized Crimea was for all practical purposes … gone to the other side… ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1296 "2014-03-16T07:52:24Z")
By the way, here is a poll done in 2012: [http://crimeantatars.org/article/fewer-and-fewer-crimean-people-want-to-see-the-crimean-peninsula-as-part-of-rus](http://crimeantatars.org/article/fewer-and-fewer-crimean-people-want-to-see-the-crimean-peninsula-as-part-of-rus) For the first time within 21 years of independence the quantity of Crimean people who want to see the peninsula autonomy as part of Ukraine made 40% and exceeded the number of those who want to see Crimea a Russian autonomous unit (38%). Thus, compared with June 2011, the share of supporters of the autonomous status of Crimea as part of Russian Federation decreased by 15% (to 38%) in favor of supporters of the Crimean autonomy as part of Ukraine, the number of which has increased by 14% (to 40%). ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1297 "2014-03-16T08:00:15Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Then I guess I don’t know what “by all means” means. What did you mean by it? Supposedly / by all accounts > [@Terr](#): > > Sure. Do you know all the “people living there”? Yes. …with a question like that, the rest is probably not worth reading. ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1298 "2014-03-16T08:01:29Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Moscow (AFP) - A United States surveillance drone has been intercepted above the Ukranian region of Crimea, a Russian state arms and technology group said Friday. > > “The drone was flying at about 4,000 metres (12,000 feet) and was virtually invisible from the ground. It was possible to break the link with US operators with complex radio-electronic” technology, said Rostec in a statement.\* [Yahoo News](http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-intercepted-us-drone-over-crimea-arms-180430584.html) Leaking more Western technology… Seems like there are no longer and “superpowers”, only nations with equipollent military tech. As such, and wars that may eventuate in the future will come down to who strikes _first_. Foreboding… ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1299 "2014-03-16T08:02:44Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > Supposedly / by all accounts Well, I posted the youtube video for you that provides an “account” of a bunch of Russian Crimeans saying they don’t want to be a part of Russia. So now you can’t say it is “by all accounts”. ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1300 "2014-03-16T08:04:39Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > By the way, here is a poll done in 2012: > > [http://crimeantatars.org/article/fewer-and-fewer-crimean-people-want-to-see-the-crimean-peninsula-as-part-of-rus](http://crimeantatars.org/article/fewer-and-fewer-crimean-people-want-to-see-the-crimean-peninsula-as-part-of-rus) > > For the first time within 21 years of independence the quantity of Crimean people who want to see the peninsula autonomy as part of Ukraine made 40% and exceeded the number of those who want to see Crimea a Russian autonomous unit (38%). Thus, compared with June 2011, the share of supporters of the autonomous status of Crimea as part of Russian Federation decreased by 15% (to 38%) in favor of supporters of the Crimean autonomy as part of Ukraine, the number of which has increased by 14% (to 40%). Surely the presence of Russian troops on the ground will make Crimeans realise how wonderful their neighbour is :rolleyes: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=64) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=66)