# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 68
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1341 "2014-03-16T20:17:55Z")
Depressing as it happens, isn’t it? [**Crimea parties**](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi3xTWJCMAAld4D.jpg:large) ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1342 "2014-03-16T20:19:06Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You’re right, they didn’t quite say that Exactly. “Ukrainian fascism isn’t growing quite as fast as you claim, Vlad,” is a very different thing from “there is essentially _no_ fascist/Nazi presence in Ukraine.” ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1343 "2014-03-16T20:22:03Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > Crimeans are going to be sorely disappointed with the loving care they’re going to get from Russia. I feel really bad for the Tartars, who are invariably going to be violently suppressed and persecuted right back off their own historic lands. Ukrainians in Crimea will probably have to be suppressed and/or removed as well, since they aren’t going to be happy being shit poor Russians while watching Ukraine’s economy and standard of living go up. That’s funny. The part about Ukraine’s standards of living “go up” anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1344 "2014-03-16T20:23:28Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > That’s funny. The part about Ukraine’s standards of living “go up” anyway. Haven’t you heard? Yats is the guy who’s got the economic experience! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1345 "2014-03-16T20:24:55Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > That’s funny. The part about Ukraine’s standards of living “go up” anyway. Check out Poland. ---
**Author:** ![kurtisokc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/bbce88/32.png) [@kurtisokc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kurtisokc)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1346 "2014-03-16T20:30:23Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Ah so Putin went for Soviet-style voting results. Figures. Their standards have slipped. In the old Soviet days it would have been more like 99.93%. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1347 "2014-03-16T20:42:00Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > Check out Poland. I would not be surprised to see Putin pour rubles into Crimea to show the rest of Ukraine what rewards you get if you look east instead of west. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1348 "2014-03-16T20:46:40Z")
This is extremely dangerous now. Russia is now saying that because some Russian nationals have been attacked in Ukraine, they may be forced to move deeper into the country to ‘protect’ the Russians. In the meantime, there are reports that Russians are actually being bused INTO Ukraine to stir up trouble and give him a cassus belli to move deeper into the country. This is right out of the old Soviet playbook. Putin is testing right now. He’s going to keep pushing until he meets real resistance. The big risk here is that a timid response will make Putin think he can actually take Ukraine, or at least a larger chunk of it. Tough sanctions are important, but those are long-term answers and Putin may think he can worm his way out of them, or that the pain of them in the west will cause them to be abandoned soon if he just stands his ground. What the west should be doing right now is moving military assets as fast as they can into the region, to let Putin know he’s gone as far as he’s going to go. The U.S. should, if Ukraine agrees, be airlifting soldiers into the area to act as a tripwire. That’s obviously a risky strategy, but it’s far less risky than sitting back and waiting to see just how far Putin is willing to go. Because if he decides the west is toothless and takes Ukraine, it’s either going to trigger a war or it’s going to start a new cold war because the other ex-Soviet satellites will obviously be at risk. The argument I keep hearing against this is that Russia is economically very weak and so it can’t survive doing this without serious economic harm. I think that might be a misreading of the situation. Putin’s not interested in pumping his economy - he’s a nationalist who deals in strength and power. To him, getting back his Crimean warm water port is a matter of retaining military power and capability, not a means to improve his economy. Besides, we now know that the Soviet Union had a terrible economy that was much smaller than we thought, but it managed to survive for nearly a century. My worry now is that Putin moves farther into Ukraine, and if the west begins sanctions he’ll start rattling his nuclear sabres, or he’ll cut off natural gas supplies to Europe. His calculus may be that if he makes life difficult for Europe and starts threatening people with his missiles, while promising that if everyone just pushes the ‘reset’ button he’ll go back to being a good guy and the world can get along doing business. The west will back down on promises that Ukraine was his last expansionary move and now he’ll be good. If that happens, the signal to Putin will be that all he has to do is wait for a couple of years until the new status quo is accepted, then move and take back another piece of the old Soviet Union. And eventually he’ll go a step too far and force a war, or kick off a new cold war and we’ll all get to live with the threat of nuclear annihilation again… ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1349 "2014-03-16T21:01:55Z")
We have people blathering about “Fascists” in Kiev, when the fascist threat is in Moscow. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1350 "2014-03-16T21:13:02Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I would not be surprised to see Putin pour rubles into Crimea to show the rest of Ukraine what rewards you get if you look east instead of west. They already know what the rewards are. Military occupation. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1351 "2014-03-16T21:21:20Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > If that happens, the signal to Putin will be that all he has to do is wait for a couple of years until the new status quo is accepted, then move and take back another piece of the old Soviet Union. And eventually he’ll go a step too far and force a war, or kick off a new cold war and we’ll all get to live with the threat of nuclear annihilation again… He’s also going to have to deal with his own people, who’ve had a taste of relative freedom for 20 years. I hear the anti-war protests in Moscow are growing bigger. It’s grown from dozens to 100s to [1000s pretty quickly](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/15/moscow-protest-crimea_n_4969970.html). ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1352 "2014-03-16T21:45:31Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > Exactly. “Ukrainian fascism isn’t growing quite as fast as you claim, Vlad,” is a very different thing from “there is essentially _no_ fascist/Nazi presence in Ukraine.” If this is the straw at which you grasp at then you have no point, and are only interested in Putin apologia and thus are not worthy of regard on this issue. There is no significant fascist problem in Ukraine, any more than there is in the rest of Eastern Europe–all countries in Eastern Europe have some level of fascist parties or activity, including Hungary, Romania etc–it is a fringe movement throughout that region of the world but in no way runs Ukraine. The political history of the leaders of current Ukraine is known to all and is not fascist in the least. If you believe there is significant fascism in Ukraine cite a source that is not from Russia, in fact I’ll limit it to top-tier news sources from OECD countries, and we may consider the issue of fascism in Ukraine. Otherwise, as I’ve well cited, and you rejected ignorantly, fascism is not a concern in Ukraine, period. Sans convincing cites otherwise you have nothing to go on, and any claims you believe or wish to imply about fascism in Ukraine are without any merit whatsoever. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1353 "2014-03-16T21:46:42Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > He’s also going to have to deal with his own people, who’ve had a taste of relative freedom for 20 years. I hear the anti-war protests in Moscow are growing bigger. It’s grown from dozens to 100s to [1000s pretty quickly](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/15/moscow-protest-crimea_n_4969970.html). In Russia it’s pretty easy to just disperse protesters. Putin has done it before, it’s not like America where there are robust freedoms. Putin has actually outlawed almost all independent press through skullduggery tactics and when there have been prior protests he just labels them “terrorist” or “fascist” acts and handles them as you’d expect. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1354 "2014-03-16T21:48:22Z")
> [@Grim\_Render](#): > > This is why Russia has NATO on its borders. Its basically running its relations with its neighbours with such brutalism that they all pull NATO up as close as they can. NATO never encircled Russia. Russia simply made it clear to its neighbours that the choice was NATO membership or brutal subjugation, like in the Warzaw Pact days. Excellent point, and extremely accurate. Several of the NATO members we’ve added since the Cold War had historical reservations about NATO but already knew what to expect from Russia, and decided whatever negatives might come NATO protection was worth it. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1355 "2014-03-16T21:50:58Z")
You know, I always wonder, when these “referendums” are conducted and they don’t even try to pretend that they are in any way legitimate. No legitimate referendum on a subject that is more controversial than “would you like your head cut off” gets 95% vote. None. Why do they even bother pretending that there was a vote? The useful idiots in the West will continue licking their behinds anyway, with or without such a “referendum”, and anyone with two neurons to rub together both inside Russia and outside knows that 95% can only be achieved by massive fraud.\ I mean, since they are fixing up the result anyway, why not fix it as something more reasonable like 65%? Or even 55%? Don’t they realize just how laughable a 95% result is? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1356 "2014-03-16T21:54:44Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > We have people blathering about “Fascists” in Kiev, when the fascist threat is in Moscow. Have a cite, surely. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1357 "2014-03-16T21:55:43Z")
> [@](#): > > Around 93% of voters in Crimea have backed joining Russia and seceding from Ukraine, according to exit polls quoted by Russian news agencies. > [@Terr](#): > > Ah so Putin went for Soviet-style voting results. Figures. To be fair, part of the inflated vote percentage was that many Ukraineans boycotted the election. It wasn’t all a prop job by Putin. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1358 "2014-03-16T21:56:42Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > This is extremely dangerous now. Russia is now saying that because some Russian nationals have been attacked in Ukraine, they may be forced to move deeper into the country to ‘protect’ the Russians. In the meantime, there are reports that Russians are actually being bused INTO Ukraine to stir up trouble and give him a cassus belli to move deeper into the country. This is right out of the old Soviet playbook. > > Putin is testing right now. He’s going to keep pushing until he meets real resistance. The big risk here is that a timid response will make Putin think he can actually take Ukraine, or at least a larger chunk of it. > > Tough sanctions are important, but those are long-term answers and Putin may think he can worm his way out of them, or that the pain of them in the west will cause them to be abandoned soon if he just stands his ground. > > What the west should be doing right now is moving military assets as fast as they can into the region, to let Putin know he’s gone as far as he’s going to go. The U.S. should, if Ukraine agrees, be airlifting soldiers into the area to act as a tripwire. > > That’s obviously a risky strategy, but it’s far less risky than sitting back and waiting to see just how far Putin is willing to go. Because if he decides the west is toothless and takes Ukraine, it’s either going to trigger a war or it’s going to start a new cold war because the other ex-Soviet satellites will obviously be at risk. > > The argument I keep hearing against this is that Russia is economically very weak and so it can’t survive doing this without serious economic harm. I think that might be a misreading of the situation. Putin’s not interested in pumping his economy - he’s a nationalist who deals in strength and power. To him, getting back his Crimean warm water port is a matter of retaining military power and capability, not a means to improve his economy. > > Besides, we now know that the Soviet Union had a terrible economy that was much smaller than we thought, but it managed to survive for nearly a century. > > My worry now is that Putin moves farther into Ukraine, and if the west begins sanctions he’ll start rattling his nuclear sabres, or he’ll cut off natural gas supplies to Europe. His calculus may be that if he makes life difficult for Europe and starts threatening people with his missiles, while promising that if everyone just pushes the ‘reset’ button he’ll go back to being a good guy and the world can get along doing business. The west will back down on promises that Ukraine was his last expansionary move and now he’ll be good. > > If that happens, the signal to Putin will be that all he has to do is wait for a couple of years until the new status quo is accepted, then move and take back another piece of the old Soviet Union. And eventually he’ll go a step too far and force a war, or kick off a new cold war and we’ll all get to live with the threat of nuclear annihilation again… I agree with your long term fears but not your short term solutions. Us going militarily into Ukraine is simply too risky now. If Putin were to actually try to take the rest of Ukraine that would actually be great because it would permanently shatter any idea of Russia as a new superpower. The sooner Russia realizes it will never be a superpower again, the better. The next century will indeed be the end of American hegemony and a return to an earlier “great power” system, but it won’t be Russia as one of the great powers. It’ll be the United States and China, and after that I can only guess but perhaps the EU and India–not Russia, with an aging population and an economy that barely functions due to the highest corruption rate of any large economy in the world. If Russia was to seize Ukraine and try to subject the 10s of millions of Ukrainians who will not accept Russian rule, it would essentially explode Russia’s economy and people. Russia could barely get by with invading Afghanistan when they had a much larger military and arguably a stronger economy. In the modern kleptocrat state where just a relatively minor pullback in foreign investment would lead to ruin, a long bloody subjugation of Ukraine would be the end of Russia as an economic entity and you’d no longer hear of the “BRIC” nations but the “BIC” nations. But I do believe we need to move resources into the Baltic Republics and Poland, no question there. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1359 "2014-03-16T22:02:23Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > There is no significant fascist problem in Ukraine Fascists in the government = “significant fascist problem,” wouldn’t you say? From another thread: > [@](#): > > [Oleksander Sych](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Sych), a Svoboda member who opposes abortion even in the case of rape, is now the vice prime minister. > > [Andriy Mokhnyk](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andriy_Mokhnyk), also a Svoboda member, who [pals around with Italian neo-fascist party Forza Nuova](http://en.svoboda.org.ua/news/events/00001771/), is now the Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources. > > Ihor Shvayka, also a Svoboda member, is now the Minister Of Agrarian Policy And Food. > > Oleh Maknitskyy, also a Svoboda member, is now the country’s state attorney. [There’s more](http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/11/ukraine-the-enemy-of-your-enemy-is-not-always-your-friend/): > [@](#): > > Svoboda co-founder Andriy Parubiy was named Secretary of the Security and National Defense Committee, a significant post with control over police and military forces. > [@](#): > > Pravy Sektor is even to the right of Svoboda [!], but that has not stopped its leader Dmytro Yarosh from being named as Paruby’s Deputy Secretary of National Security. The latter article is from [Counterpunch.org](http://Counterpunch.org) - hardly a bastion of pro-Kremlin sentiment. Would you say this counts as significant, or insignificant? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1360 "2014-03-16T22:07:34Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Yes they’ve moved 10 k in to take a natural gas distribution facility. But I am sure the facility was also outraged by the Kiev fascist coup. Did you find that cite yet where I actually said the Ukraine government was overtaken by fascists? Just wondering when you will admit you were wrong. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=67) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=69)