# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 76
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1501 "2014-03-18T11:26:55Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Again prejudiced opinion not substantiated by reality on the ground. And to arrive there one must assume that most pro-Russian Crimeans would not desire to be rejoined to their motherland and they only voted to help in staging a referendum to look real. No, I’ve never denied that a majority of Crimeans may want to join Russia. I’ve denied the legality, legitimacy and transparency of this referendum. The means justify the end 😉 ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1502 "2014-03-18T11:27:23Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > The polonium was traced back to Russia. And while I’m not a fan of CTs there are some fairly big dots to connect - journalist investigating Putin dies, person investigating the death of the journalist dies in very painful, public and rare manner. But yeah, I suppose he could have pissed off someone else in Russia with agents in London and a fondness for weird methods of assassination. > > Or maybe Yo Sushi! buy their fish from Fukushima. Who knows? Not Putin, that’s for sure. Can’t possibly have been him - he was off wrestling a tiger that day. Suspicious goings on amongst former KGB and the Oligarchs and who knows who else filling their coffers during the breakup of the USSR are CT enough to be not worthy of the issue being discussed today. ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1503 "2014-03-18T11:30:56Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I’m more interested in the 538 article anyway. 41%, while still a goodly chunk of the population, does not become 95% in a month no matter what. While I agree with your point, a survey with a margin of error of +/- 55% is not good stuff. What I find rather strange is that more than 1,500,000 people voted in this referendum, in a region where there are 1,660,000 people aged 15 and over. Assuming that some sectors of society boycotted the referendum, and that (I guess) people aged 15-17 were not allowed to vote, this seems like an excessively high turnout. Perhaps I’ve got the numbers wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1504 "2014-03-18T11:34:26Z")
> [@Batistuta](#): > > While I agree with your point, a survey with a margin of error of +/- 55% is not good stuff. For the avoidance of doubt **that was a joke** , contrasting the 41% in the poll with the 95% in the referendum. According to 538 KIIS do very reliable polling. ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1505 "2014-03-18T11:57:17Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > For the avoidance of doubt **that was a joke** , contrasting the 41% in the poll with the 95% in the referendum. According to 538 KIIS do very reliable polling. Oh, Jesus that was dumb. I’ll look into the actual survey as soon as I have some time 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Anondragon2012](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bc79bd/32.png) [@Anondragon2012](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anondragon2012)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1506 "2014-03-18T12:02:53Z")
The only question I have about all this is: What is the West’s intention beyond waving a stick at Russia? Crimea is de-facto Russian now. Would Putin & Russia really care if UN or NATO somehow sanctions them? No they haven’t cared before and won’t now. And its not like in South Korea with US GIs at the border ready to invade. This is far away Ukraine with puppet regime that seems about to fall anyday the Russians step in. And again let’s be honest the Europeans have absolutely no negociation power. So its up to the Yankees but it really doesn’t seem like they will do much. Putin = Winner, at least I think so in future. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1507 "2014-03-18T12:07:16Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > For the avoidance of doubt **that was a joke** , contrasting the 41% in the poll with the 95% in the referendum. According to 538 KIIS do very reliable polling. What poll are you contrasting to the actual vote? ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1508 "2014-03-18T12:32:07Z")
> [@Anondragon2012](#): > > Putin = Winner, at least I think so in future. Politically, and in the short-term. From any other point of view Putin may regret his actions during the last month. Russia now has to support an under-developed region that depends on mainland Ukraine for almost all of its necessities. In addition to this, Ukraine will become a more pro-European, anti-Russian country than it was three days ago, if only due to basic demographic changes. In the long-term, Europe is likely to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. Russia is a country with a horrendous corruption problem that survives thanks to its raw materials, so long-term changes in this area could prove catastrophic. Don’t be mistaken by Russia’s enormous size, gas wealth, and aggressive foreign policy. This is an empire built on quicksand. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1509 "2014-03-18T12:37:11Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > What poll are you contrasting to the actual vote? The one discussed in the article we’re talking about, the one I linked to above. Do try to keep up. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1510 "2014-03-18T12:46:22Z")
> [@Anondragon2012](#): > > Putin = Winner, at least I think so in future. It’s that tiger blood thing he’s got going. WINNING!!! ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1511 "2014-03-18T14:21:32Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > Putin is a thug, no doubt about it - and no doubt many of his supporters are fascists, and no doubt many of the tactics he employs have also been employed in fascist dictatorship. But to the best of my knowledge, neither he, nor his party, is _ideologically_ fascist. They do not, as far as I know, praise Nazi war criminals (as Oleh Tyahnybok did as late as 2010) or distribute books by the likes of Joseph Goebbels (as Svoboda did as late as 2013). No, but Nazi war criminals killed millions of Russians. I suspect, and in fact I know, members of Putin’s party have glorified Stalin (not a totally uncommon thing in Russia at large, actually.) We had a thread some time ago about the ideology of fascism, and one of the arguments I put forward in that thread is that unlike Communism which is a fully fleshed out ideology both about economics and how to run a State fascism is neither. Any desire for a strong (code word for “authoritarian”) State, combined with nationalism and “state direction of certain industries for the benefit of the State” would qualify as fascism. There is no fascist equivalent of _Das Kapital_ or of Marx, Engels, or Lenin. There’s not a huge amount in common between the governments of Benito Mussolini, Adolf Hitler, and Franco other than authoritarianism and state direction of industry. There’s actually only scant difference between how those countries ran and how how Stalin-era Soviet Union ran; except the leaders of those countries were ironically virulently anti-Communist. Which basically meant instead of couching all of their authoritarian abuses in terms of “working for the people’s ultimate benefit” the fascists leaders couched it as “working for the benefit of the State.” I don’t believe that fascism is a firm enough ideology to say that just because Putin’s party doesn’t glorify Goebbels and Himmler that means they aren’t fascist. > [@](#): > > Which falsehoods, exactly? Be specific. I’m not going to get into that game. The fact that you’re repeating Putin’s arguments and trying to justify his actions is the evidence of the falseness of your claims. No serious observer believes Putin was justified in going into Crimea. No neutral party believes that Crimea needed Russian “protection.” No neutral party is ignorant of the fact that once in Crimea “protecting” people the Russians shut down all dissent and free press. If you accept that the Russians were unjustified in going into Crimea in the first place and have acted as thugs since–then we don’t really disagree on much. I don’t disagree there are “troubling” elements in Ukraine, even outright fascist ones. But I believe you can only fairly say that _some_ members of Svoboda meet the Nazi-associated “negative” connotation of fascism and the rest are more akin to a “generic” Eastern European far right party–and since Svoboda is a very small party in the parliament bringing them up as evidence of trouble is disingenuous. Far right parties have held seats in Greece, Austria–even France. That doesn’t justify invading those countries. > [@](#): > > And speaking of falsehoods: Will you please explain why you claimed that “they [Svoboda] kicked out a previous leader that made racist comments directed at Russians and Jews,” when, in fact, Oleh Tyahnybok remains the party’s leader to this day? Why did you claim that, when that it clearly not true? Were you mistaken? I was mistaken on that. In the weeks since this Crimean business has started I’ve read a bit on Ukraine as it wasn’t a part of the world I had followed much. Part of that was I read that Oleh Tyahnybok was ejected from a coalition due to some anti-semitic and anti-Russian comments he had made. In my mind I misremembered that as him being kicked out of his party, which did not happen. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1512 "2014-03-18T14:29:16Z")
[QUOTE=Anondragon2012] Would Putin & Russia really care if UN or NATO somehow sanctions them? [/QUOTE] Well, NATO isn’t going to sanction anyone…it’s a military alliance and doesn’t do sanctions. The EU COULD do sanctions that would really hurt Russia (and they would certainly care about that), but it would hurt the EU as well. The US will certainly (has already at this point) do sanctions against Russia, but I doubt it will have a large impact as they aren’t one of our major trading partners, and vice versa. > [@](#): > > And its not like in South Korea with US GIs at the border ready to invade. This is far away Ukraine with puppet regime that seems about to fall anyday the Russians step in. The US isn’t actually poised on the NK border ready to invade…we only have like 30,000 troops in South Korea, so it would be a pretty small invasion. Those troops are there as a trip wire…if North Korea invade they will have to go through those troops, thus bringing the US into the war. As for the Ukraine, we could invite them into NATO. Doing that, if Russia attempted anything overtly military (such as, oh, say blockading Ukrainian military bases, ports, etc…not that this is likely, amiright? :p) NATO would be treaty bound to do something about it. Bringing the Ukraine into the EU would open up all sorts of possibilities for trade and improving the Ukrainian economy, but that’s probably less likely right now with the EU having their own internal economic troubles and probably a bit gun shy (heh) about bringing in another failing state. > [@](#): > > And again let’s be honest the Europeans have absolutely no negociation power. Totally untrue. The EU and Russia are major trading partners, so if the Europeans REALLY wanted to buckle down on the sanctions and were willing to take the economic hit over it, they could hurt Russia a hell of a lot more than they would be hurt in turn (after all, while Western Europe is one of Russia’s largest trading partners, the Europeans have a bit broader trading base than just Russia). I doubt they would or will do this, but they COULD do it…which means they do have quite a bit of potential negotiating power. > [@](#): > > Putin = Winner, at least I think so in future. As far as the Crimea goes, certainly. It’s a done deal at this point. But more broadly? Only time will tell, but personally I think Putin stepped on his own crank this time. I don’t think he believed it would be this messy or overt, and I think he tried to do too much too fast…and it’s going to eventually bite him on the ass. Especially if the US and EU DOES impose sanctions that actually hurt Russia, and if we use this to bring the Ukraine more into our own sphere of influence with trade and military alliances or treaties. ---
**Author:** ![Frank\_Merton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Frank\_Merton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank_Merton)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1513 "2014-03-18T14:38:14Z")
The 95% number strikes me as a fairly typical Communist election result. Seventy percent or so would perhaps have been credible. We look to be back to the bad old days. ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1514 "2014-03-18T15:34:57Z")
The numbers hardly matter. The ethnic makeup of the region speaks for itself. Move on, already. ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1515 "2014-03-18T15:43:52Z")
> [@BrokenBriton](#): > > The numbers hardly matter. The ethnic makeup of the region speaks for itself. Move on, already. Why have fair and free elections when you can just look at people’s family trees? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1516 "2014-03-18T15:44:47Z")
> [@BrokenBriton](#): > > The numbers hardly matter. The ethnic makeup of the region speaks for itself. Move on, already. Does it? I’m sure we’ve addressed this already - not all ethnic Russians in Crimea necessarily want to join Russia. Many may, certainly, but others want independence or to remain with the Ukraine. And the whole problem here is that the people of the Crimea aren’t being allowed to speak for themselves. Not really. Which is why the numbers matter. You can’t just say “Well, _obviously_ they all want to join Russia” when a month ago a majority of them didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1517 "2014-03-18T15:50:08Z")
> [@Batistuta](#): > > Why have fair and free elections when you can just look at people’s family trees? And even then, the Lorax speaks for them. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1518 "2014-03-18T16:35:03Z")
The method yesterday to leave Ukraine’s borders was a hell of a lot more democratic than the method that joined Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. At that time the Premier of the USSR gave Crimea to Ukraine as a gift. Presumably because Nikita Khrushchev had found a Ukrainian woman who was willing to marry his ugly face. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1519 "2014-03-18T16:52:07Z")
> [@BrokenBriton](#): > > The numbers hardly matter. The ethnic makeup of the region speaks for itself. Move on, already. Blood and soil nationalism, eh? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/1520 "2014-03-18T17:06:58Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > Remember, the code is [noparse][/noparse] > > What defines a coup isn’t violence (surely you’ve heard of a [“bloodless coup”](http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/september/1/newsid_3911000/3911587.stm)), but the nature of the change in power. A coup is characterized by part of the existing government - typically, but not always, the military - overthrowing and replacing the executive part. That’s not what happened in Ukraine. The events there would properly be termed a popular uprising, or revolution. And note, “popular” doesn’t mean “all the people”; remember the popular revolution that preceded the coup of Morsi in Egypt? It wasn’t unanimous either, yet you didn’t criticize it on those grounds. What do you mean that’s not what happened in Ukraine? That is bizarre. The violent street mob and the legislators joined together to overthrow and replace the executive branch in order change the direction that the elected president wished to go on ties to the east or west. If that is what you now accept as democracy in action for a 20 year old democracy then Ill have to review where you’ve stood on that topic in the past. We may have to wait a while to find out what role the security forces and military played in the mind of Yanukovich as to whether they would defend his life as one would think is required by the Constitution. If the military and police or either agency sided with the mob and refused to protect the elected President, that makes a mob induced coup d’état also a police or military coup d’etat. Nit-picking again that it can’t be a popular uprising that resulted in a coup? That is plenty weak and beside the point. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=75) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=77)