# Russia has invaded Ukraine. How will the West respond? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513 "2014-02-28T15:06:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Pidril\_Pidrilych](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f1d935/32.png) [@Pidril\_Pidrilych](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pidril_Pidrilych)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/161 "2014-03-01T18:40:28Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > In what way is a Russian invasion of Ukraine the biggest geopolitical threat facing the United States? Exactly my point. The President was loud and clear yesterday, warning Putin that invasion of Ukraine would be a “grave mistake” and warning Russia to stay out of Ukraine. The Russians immediately backed down,announcing they’d invade Ukraine at their leisure. The President’s authority and masterful handling of Putin is once again on display. ---
**Author:** ![Pidril\_Pidrilych](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f1d935/32.png) [@Pidril\_Pidrilych](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pidril_Pidrilych)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/162 "2014-03-01T18:45:50Z")
“The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine.” A statement like that was enough to make the Russians quake in their boots. For you see, in the future, there will be affirmation of some future costs. Just ask Bashir Assad about those affirmations. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/163 "2014-03-01T18:47:00Z")
> [@Pidril\_Pidrilych](#): > > 100% correct, except the small part where for 2 years Yanukovich drove Ukraine to sign association with EU, only to back down at the last minute under enormous pressure from Putin. _shrug_ Just because it wasn’t an immediate change doesn’t mean that it wasn’t clearly coming. ---
**Author:** ![kurtisokc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/bbce88/32.png) [@kurtisokc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kurtisokc)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/164 "2014-03-01T18:51:14Z")
> [@Pidril\_Pidrilych](#): > > “The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine.” > > A statement like that was enough to make the Russians quake in their boots. I’m sure Putin was quaking in his boots upon hearing that…unfortunately he was quaking as a result of his laughter. ---
**Author:** ![blindboyard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blindboyard/32/2833_2.png) [@blindboyard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blindboyard)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/165 "2014-03-01T19:13:54Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > And the Soviet Empire is being rebuilt without even the slightest opposition from the West. No it’s not. None of the SSRs have been reabsorbed by Russia and most of them are American puppets, Uzbekistan and company taking part in the extraordinary rendition programme and allowing transit of military equipment for Afghanistan, not to mention the drugs they move at the same time. The western SSRs are mostly now EU or NATO-aligned. The Baltic states and post-coup Ukraine, for example. Putin’s actions in Georgia were supported by the Council of Europe, and there have been no other acts of aggression at all. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/166 "2014-03-01T19:16:55Z")
> [@treis](#): > > Yanukovych was clearly pro-Russian and won the election legitimately. At that point Ukraine was not “basically an independent country moving towards Europe”. They had elected a pro-Russian leader and were obviously going to move closer to Russia, not Europe. Seems to me Yanukovych was a typical Ukrainian kleptocrat who had no real interest in the EU or Russia except as pawns to play off each other while embezzling billions for himself, and doing nothing about the corrupt oligarchs who seem to wield most of the real power. Only thing I can’t figure out is how he got his money frozen by the Swiss. That was stupid. ---
**Author:** ![blindboyard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blindboyard/32/2833_2.png) [@blindboyard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blindboyard)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/167 "2014-03-01T19:18:54Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Yeah because obviously we live in a world where only the President knows anything and us citizens are too stupid to have any knowledge of foreign policy. I guess I was in a fugue state when I thought for most of my adult life we basically spent most of our foreign policy efforts on checking Russian aggression across dozens of satellite countries spread around the world. I guess that didn’t happen and all the Presidents of the Cold War and all the dumb people like every major foreign policy adviser from the Truman to H.W. Bush Administrations were actually mistaken that we need to check Russian aggression/expansionism and instead the Iron Curtain was a great thing as was the Soviet Empire and we should do nothing to prevent a repeat of that. They weren’t dumb, they were lying to you as an excuse for their own anti-democratic practices. How many countries did the Soviets invade or subvert between 1945 and 1990? Here is the list: Afghanistan. That is the end of the list. Even that was only after the Americans had recruited the local crazies to raid over the border into the Soviet Union. America, on the other hand, between invasions and CIA backed coups a la Pinochet practiced their expansionism into dozens of countries. The same pattern continues today, Russia occasionally active inside it’s own borders, and now in the Ukraine, while the Americans continue to slaughter the innocent across all continents. ---
**Author:** ![Pidril\_Pidrilych](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f1d935/32.png) [@Pidril\_Pidrilych](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pidril_Pidrilych)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/168 "2014-03-01T19:21:24Z")
> [@blindboyard](#): > > How many countries did the Soviets invade or subvert between 1945 and 1990? Here is the list: Afghanistan. That is the end of the list. I think you’re forgetting a coupla countries…hint: one starts with a C and another one with an H. And if you expand your list, say, to 1939 and 1990, then the list will be chock full of countries that start with P, L, L, E, F, R… ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/169 "2014-03-01T19:51:12Z")
> [@blindboyard](#): > > They weren’t dumb, they were lying to you as an excuse for their own anti-democratic practices. How many countries did the Soviets invade or subvert between 1945 and 1990? Here is the list: Afghanistan. That is the end of the list. Hungary? ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/170 "2014-03-01T20:11:26Z")
“Halt! Or… I’ll affirm that you’re not halting!” ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/171 "2014-03-01T20:18:55Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > “Halt! Or… I’ll affirm that you’re not halting!” You are saying that someone shoot or say they’ll shoot or what? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/172 "2014-03-01T20:30:23Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > “Halt! Or… I’ll affirm that you’re not halting!” Well that is not really how it is. It is: “Don’t do this! Or… I’ll start talks with this other group of people on whether we can all agree that there should be some consequences for what you did!” ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/173 "2014-03-01T20:32:37Z")
> [@Pidril\_Pidrilych](#): > > Exactly my point. > The President was loud and clear yesterday, warning Putin that invasion of Ukraine would be a “grave mistake” and warning Russia to stay out of Ukraine. > The Russians immediately backed down,announcing they’d invade Ukraine at their leisure. > The President’s authority and masterful handling of Putin is once again on display. So your point has nothing to do with the fact that terrorism is a more serious threat to the United States than Romney, and Obama was correct to point that out? That fact has nothing to do with whether Putin takes tough talk from the US seriously. They are totally different issues, so either you’re trying to throw out ridiculous arguments that would get you laughed off of political combat TV shows like the McLaughlin Group, or you have no point. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/174 "2014-03-01T20:44:51Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Do you have a source for that ‘did’ since it is rather serious that Putin had Russian solders killed while serving as peacekeepers in South Ossetia when wanna-be-NATO-Georgian rockets rained down on them where they lived and slept. > > I suppose Putin is so evil and power mad and full of lust for conquest that he would ‘engineer’ the deaths of his own troops to annex two pieces of real estate that are probably more trouble than they are worth. But I doubt it. I don’t doubt it at all, Putin is interested in Russian prestige and Russian resurgence, if annexing a few statelets on its borders is what it requires, then he’ll do that. They served as peacekeepers who actively provoked the Georgians into attacking the Russians so they could have carte blanche in occupying Abkhazia and South Ossetia. > **[BBC NEWS | Europe | Georgia angered by Russian move](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7350442.stm)** > > Georgia says Russia is trying to annex two of Tbilisi's breakaway republics by seeking closer ties. - > [@](#): > > Georgia has accused Russia of trying to annex the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia with its decision to seek closer ties with them. > > Moscow said it would intensify social and economic co-operation in the regions and recognise businesses and organisations registered there. > > But Georgian Foreign Minister David Bakradze said this amounted to “de facto annexation” of its provinces. > > Last month, both regions called on the UN to recognise their independence. > > Tbilisi responded by warning Moscow not to take any step towards recognition. > > A senior MP in the Georgian parliament, Shota Malashkhia, said it would lead Russian peacekeepers to be “outlawed” in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. - I’m gonna be a little alarmist, but it’s things like this which lead to large conflicts, if he’s allowed to do what he wants in the Ukraine, without serious repercussions then it gives him the green light to maybe unite fellow Russians living ‘abroad’ back into Russia proper. ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/175 "2014-03-01T21:27:16Z")
> [@Pidril\_Pidrilych](#): > > Here’s the President smacking down Mitt Romney on foreign policy: Hey, Romney saved the Sochi Olympics so he knows a thing or two. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/176 "2014-03-01T22:54:31Z")
So, what kind of military force can Ukraine bring to bear if they choose to fight? From what I’ve read before(although it’s outdated), they inherited a pretty big portion of the old Red Army’s equipment, didn’t they? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/177 "2014-03-01T23:19:23Z")
> [@Batistuta](#): > > This is not about the objective power of each country’s army, it’s about the power of their leaders. This reminds me a bit of the Cuban Missile Crisis: a Russian Premier thinks that the US President is a weak idealist, and sets out to test him. The Cuban Missile Crisis was an exercise in brinkmanship that the USA won. Here, so far, Russia is winning What is Putin winning? ---
**Author:** ![Henrichek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/5daacb/32.png) [@Henrichek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henrichek)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2014, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/178 "2014-03-01T23:43:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So, what kind of military force can Ukraine bring to bear if they choose to fight? From what I’ve read before(although it’s outdated), they inherited a pretty big portion of the old Red Army’s equipment, didn’t they? While they have a lot of equipment, what’s more relevant is what kind of control Kiev has over their armed forces. In this situation it’s wrong to speak of “Ukraine” as there is no such thing as a unified Ukraine going up against Russia. For example, some previously Ukrainian forces in Crimea have switched sides, and eastern Ukraine slowly seems to be waking up from their indifference lately. So if the current government chooses to fight, the relevant question is how many will actually follow orders? They don’t appear to be able to control their henchmen in Kiev, so it’s difficult to know whether the armed forces will listen. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2014, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/179 "2014-03-02T00:05:34Z")
> [@treis](#): > > Yanukovych was clearly pro-Russian and won the election legitimately. At that point Ukraine was not “basically an independent country moving towards Europe”. They had elected a pro-Russian leader and were obviously going to move closer to Russia, not Europe. He did not campaign on stopping negotiations with Europe and abandoning the EU discussions. There’s a reason people flipped out so insanely when he did that several years after being elected and not you know, when he was actually elected. He was seen as Russian leaning but not a tool of Russia, that evolved into a view of him as irredeemably corrupt and a pure puppet of Russia. There’s more nuance than you want to accept here, Ukrainians elected someone who wasn’t _anti_ Russian, but that doesn’t mean they were all expecting him to do what he did. The Russian speaking population of Ukraine isn’t enough to have elected Yanukovych by itself. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2014, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513/180 "2014-03-02T00:11:11Z")
Most likely the relatively small Russian force in Crimea would be slaughtered if the Ukrainian military decided to expel them. But that would mean absolute, 100% open war with Russia which is harder to predict. Russia could not easily roll into Ukraine like they did Georgia, and it would be massively expensive. Russia is a loud and large country and has a legitimate military but they aren’t the Soviet Union and would be hard pressed to engage in the kind of military adventurism the Soviets did. However, this is lose/lose for Ukraine, because in an open war with Russia Ukraine itself is also going to basically disintegrate into partisan/ethnic factions and however ugly it’d be for Russia (and it would be), it’ll basically be the end of Ukraine as a state and the beginning of Ukraine as an dystopian wasteland. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-has-invaded-ukraine-how-will-the-west-respond/682513.md?page=10)