# Russia (In The Longer Term) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [June 2, 2023, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935 "2023-06-02T23:22:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![slicedalone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slicedalone/32/12515_2.png) [@slicedalone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slicedalone)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/61 "2023-06-06T16:51:13Z")
Aren’t some of the current leaders of the Russian anti-Putin movement, now largely defenestrated or jailed or poisoned, capable of putting together such a coalition? Without support from within Russia (i.e. a sizable number of the Russian people) such a movement is doomed, but I hope there is such support there right now, and a few leaders of that movement who are currently not dead to lead it. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/62 "2023-06-06T17:49:48Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > we would nuke or otherwise destroy all of Russia’s remaining launch facilities This is what’s called a “counterforce” attack. It’s the classic opening move of a strategic nuclear strike, along with decapitation attacks to eliminate your enemy nation’s leadership. So this is literally how World War III has always been envisioned starting. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/63 "2023-06-06T18:26:27Z")
Leaders are good and all but the bulk of your average civil uprise is comprised of young, hormone-driven, financially insecure men. One notes that those are all currently being shipped out-of-country, as expediently as possible. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/64 "2023-06-06T18:37:42Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Mandela seems a poor analogy for the Russian situation. He succeeded by putting together a coalition of local and regional groups and pressure on international banks and businesses at a time where these were especially influential, being relatively inclusive, delaying negotiation, getting international support (from countries like Russia!), not generally relying on violence, being locally respected, good timing, having some support from progressives, articulating goals clearly, and having pragmatic people in government that might consider negotiations in certain circumstances. Few of these conditions would seem to apply to current Russia, I share your hopes. I don’t consider the above ideas complete, nor are different situations necessarily similar. But if one _did_ use these historical criteria, I would conclude based on my _very_ limited knowledge and speculation: - Local and regional groups seemingly have little influence on the decisions of the Russian government - International banks lost influence when Russia and others quickly found an alternative to Swift and other networks, but are highly relevant in the longer term - International businesses sometimes fled Russia at considerable penalty, but are highly relevant in the longer term - Ukraine only accounts for 3% of Russian GDP so sanctions or other policies might cause more economic burden in the short term than the conflict. Military manpower could be an issue in the medium term - The government largely has a monopoly on violent means, and change is impractical without military support - There likely is sympathy and progressive support within Russia, however this is hard to know or measure. It likely includes many people in government itself, likely a considerable number of military people, and even some influential people, cronies and oligarchs - The Russian government seems very unlikely to negotiate with progressive elements at present ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/65 "2023-06-06T18:55:14Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > One notes that those are all currently being shipped out-of-country, as expediently as possible. And, as pointed out above, this is just exacerbating Russia’s already existing demographic problem. A nation of elderly Babushkas will not have a thriving economy. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/66 "2023-06-06T19:04:55Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > One notes that those are all currently being shipped out-of-country, as expediently as possible. Sounds like a good motivation for them to join the Revolution. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/67 "2023-06-06T19:29:20Z")
What about all of the perfectly capable women who are _not_ being shipped out and _not_ elderly? A single-sex society is problematic, for sure, but I am not sure why change must be led by young men, or how society functioned before if it was all young men and old women. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/68 "2023-06-06T19:44:41Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > A single-sex society is problematic, for sure, This is more what I was getting at, not that women are not capable of change, or of hard work of any kind. The demographics of an aging population combined with an exodus of the young is going to be hard on the economy. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/69 "2023-06-06T19:45:03Z")
You could still play a strong man role, but in favor of fixing shit. “Our fathers’ generation is hopelessly corrupt! We must sweep them from the field of public service, and replace them with men of integrity!” Then, promote a culture of brutally applied anti-corruption. Even a hint of corruption should be denounced, and any actual corruption results in being sent to Siberia. Appeals to those who apparently want a brutal person as the man in charge, but maybe raises a new generation who actually cares about integrity, and rebuilding their standing with foreign investors and the like. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/70 "2023-06-06T20:20:03Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Seventy years of a command economy destroyed any work ethic that once existed. ‘We pretend to work, they pretend to pay us.’ ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/71 "2023-06-06T20:37:30Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > but in favor of fixing shit Yeah that was my intent but on second glance I see that I neglected to express that. Nonetheless, I don’t think that such a necessary thing will happen. I suspect that Russia will just gradually grind itself into the dirt, hopefully without taking the rest of us with them. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/72 "2023-06-06T20:55:14Z")
I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the more I think about it, the more desirable a military coup in Russia sounds. Not only do they have the manpower to oust Putin; they have (or by now should have) knowledge of just how truly toothless their offensive capabilities are against a united West (world, even). A military dictatorship would be in a position to accept that the only real way to rebuild Russia’s military might is through a decades long détente with their enemies, resisting foreign military adventures, and resuming normal trade and economic relationships with the rest of the world. That sucks for any democracy movement in Russia, but it would be a huge improvement over what they have now. For the West, its probably the most stable situation we could hope for. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/73 "2023-06-06T22:17:54Z")
I think - medium term - Russia will take a way similar to Agentina… Lots of natural resources, however way past its prime (peak oil/gas/NRG for russia was in 2021) … and a corruption that will do it’s “cancer” thing … IOW: the best strategy: sit at the river and wait for the body of russia to float by … they will never be what they once were ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2023, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/74 "2023-06-06T22:33:52Z")
Getting away from the literally apocalyptic possible short term scenarios ahead, the best realistic medium term scenario I see happening is Putin dropping dead in the next few years and a Russia, worn out from years of military adventures turns inward, although in a very Russian way. The next leader brings home any remaining troops (probably not from Crimea, but to pre-2022 boundries) an while claiming Putin a great leader (safely dead) that the forces involved betrayed his ambitions, and it’s time to purge them. Said leader does so, and spends the next decade purging any possible enemies and redistributing their wealth and those of Putin’s cronies to his own cronies. Probably also demanding a normalization of trade as part of their willingness to withdraw to said borders, but stalling indefinitely on Crimea. While there is likely (and with good reason) a general unwillingness in Europe to trust the new regime, everyone is going to be tired of the economic fallout, and while Ukraine may want to push harder on Crimea, they’ll probably bend to realpolitik and the costs of rebuilding locally. Meanwhile, Russia’s ties with India and China become every stronger economically, which plays well into China’s long game. I can also see said new leader pushing economic incentives and patriotic duty towards population growth, but doubt it’ll be particularly successful. So a slow and ongoing collapse as the rest of civilization moves on past them again, making them a failed state still propped up by a nuclear arsenal which will likely take up a much large portion of the new military budgets, as their conventional forces (other than those facing internal threats) will likely be shouldering the blame for the failures and unsupportable in the long term. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2023, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/75 "2023-06-07T01:20:39Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#): > > While there is likely (and with good reason) a general unwillingness in Europe to trust the new regime, Well, that’s the thing, we won’t have to “Trust” Russia. After the debacle that was their invasion of Ukraine, it’s clear that they can’t project force in any way that the Western Powers could not defeat in short order. They will never again get a chance like we gave them in Ukraine. Any significant build-up of troops at any border will be met with a united front, where we tell them unequivocally, “The minute the lead units cross a border, we start wiping out the whole goddamned army!” And they know we can do that. We could have done in in Ukraine, had we not been paranoid about Russia’s military might. Now we know they’re a paper tiger. So we don’t need to trust Russia, we just have to be willing to bomb the shit out of any invasion force they send our way. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2023, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/76 "2023-06-07T01:27:51Z")
@ParallelLines: I think you nailed it. The Russians will become as irrelevant as the e.g. Zambians once they turn inward. So the goal for the West _should_ be to permit them to to do that by in effect guaranteeing that the world will allow them to implode in peace without us pushing their borders. That was actually totally on offer during the post-Soviet Yeltsin & early Putin years, but the Russians were not ready to believe it. If we = NATO / The West play the next couple of years right in Ukraine we can set up them being comfortable to spend 50 or 100 years getting their own house in order with us in effect guaranteeing their territorial integrity and sovereignty. Both positively against incursions against them and negatively against incursions _by_ them. It will take wisdom and expense as great as the US gave in 1946+ under the Marshall Plan. But it is an investment with an insanely good long term ROI. I hope we are that smart. I am not optimistic. But I do see what we are facing. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2023, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/77 "2023-06-07T01:31:37Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > It will take wisdom and expense as great as the US gave in 1946+ under the Marshall Plan. But it is an investment with an insanely good long term ROI. I hope we are that smart. I am not optimistic. But I do see what we are facing. I hope someone with the actual power and/or influence to make this happen is paying attention to how badly we messed up the collapse of the USSR. This will be sort of a do-over, really. ---
**Author:** ![slicedalone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slicedalone/32/12515_2.png) [@slicedalone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slicedalone)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2023, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/78 "2023-06-07T02:39:51Z")
How long do the West’s economic sanctions last? ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2023, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/79 "2023-06-07T03:05:17Z")
Not sure, but they are less effective than when first implemented. > **[How much is Russia spending on its invasion of Ukraine?](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/05/30/how-much-is-russia-spending-on-its-invasion-of-ukraine)** > > By historical standards, it’s a puny amount. That tells you three big things ---
**Author:** ![slicedalone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slicedalone/32/12515_2.png) [@slicedalone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slicedalone)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2023, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935/80 "2023-06-07T08:46:27Z")
Can’t read that article (paywalled) but I get its gist. Still, remaining an economic pariah probably hurts Russia to some degree–my question is whether the sanction just go on indefinitely, or if they get relaxed to give Russia incentives to do this or that. I’m certainly not visiting their country any time soon, though all my ancestors were Russian citizens at some point and I probably would have paid a visit otherwise. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-in-the-longer-term/984935.md?page=5)