# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")

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It has started. Artillery attacks across the border on – so far – military installations.  
[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-military-operations-ukraine-demands-kyiv-forces-surrender-2022-02-24/)  
[CNN](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-23-22/index.html)  
[USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/23/russia-ukraine-invasion-crisis-update/6906567001/)

A military analyst on CNN said they are likely probing for the weakest spots before moving in the main forces and that there will be a lot of urban fighting, the kind _nobody_ wants to be involved in.

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**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2 "2022-02-24T08:35:29Z")

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The USA could do the same with Mexico, someone is suggesting:

> **[Trump Praises Putin’s Move as ‘Savvy’ and ‘Genius’ while Sympathizing with...](https://www.jewishpress.com/news/us-news/trump-praises-putins-move-as-savvy-and-genius-while-sympathizing-with-ukrainian-victims/2022/02/24/)**
>
> "This never would have happened with us," Trump insisted.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3 "2022-02-24T08:51:35Z")

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About 170 years too late.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4 "2022-02-24T08:57:13Z")

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Multi-pronged attack. Cruise missile and air strikes on targets.  
Ukrainian military claims shooting down some aircraft.  
Denizens of Kyiv fleeing, many miles long traffic jams.

Depending on the objectives, I suspect this phase will last two to three week.  
How do you say Operation Ukrainian Freedom in Russian?

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**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5 "2022-02-24T10:03:45Z")

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Ukraine claims it has shot down numerous Russian aircraft and destroyed a number of tanks.

Difficult to see how Russia plans to control a country which is over 600,000 sq km in size, and with a population of 40m people, most of whom do not want them there.

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**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6 "2022-02-24T10:13:22Z")

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> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#):
>
> Difficult to see how Russia plans to control a country which is over 600,000 sq km in size, and with a population of 40m people, most of whom do not want them there.

Wouldn’t be the first time…

> **[Holodomor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor)**
>
> The Holodomor,\[a\] also known as the Great Ukrainian Famine,\[b\] was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians. The Holodomor was part of the wider Soviet famine of 1930–1933 which affected the major grain-producing areas of the Soviet Union.
> While scholars are in consensus that the cause of the famine was man-made, whether the Holodomor constitutes a genocide remains in dispute. Some historians conclude that the famine was deliberately engineered...

> [@](#):
>
> The Holodomor (Ukrainian: Голодомо́р, romanized: Holodomor, IPA: [ɦolodoˈmɔr]; derived from морити голодом, moryty holodom, ‘to kill by starvation’; Russian: Голодомо́р, romanized: Golodomor), also known as the Terror-Famine or the Great Famine, was a famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians. It was a large part of the wider Soviet famine of 1932–1933. The term Holodomor emphasises the famine’s man-made and allegedly intentional aspects such as rejection of outside aid, confiscation of all household foodstuffs and restriction of population movement. As part of the wider Soviet famine of 1932–1933 which affected the major grain-producing areas of the country, millions of inhabitants of Ukraine, the majority of whom were ethnic Ukrainians, died of starvation in a peacetime catastrophe unprecedented in the history of Ukraine. Since 2006, the Holodomor has been recognized by Ukraine and 15 other countries as a genocide of the Ukrainian people carried out by the Soviet government.

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**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7 "2022-02-24T10:31:19Z")

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Good god. I like to think that would be much much much more difficult today.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8 "2022-02-24T10:46:19Z")

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Ukrainian line aren’t holding at all in the Southern front. Russians have reached the Dniper.

> <https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1496796592216625156?s=20&t=pZf5W-6VBK9087Jo_Ku7xA>
>
> Benjamin Pittet @COUPSURE

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/9 "2022-02-24T10:46:37Z")

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If wishes were horses.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/10 "2022-02-24T10:58:36Z")

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Never give up your nukes folks.  
And _never ever ever_ believe Superpower “guarantees”.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/11 "2022-02-24T11:33:08Z")

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Now they are saying that Ukrainian sank two Russian cargo ships in the Black Sea.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/12 "2022-02-24T12:53:12Z")

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Update:  
The Russians seem to have landed a large group of heliborne troops next to Kiyv…and I thought the 101st Airbourne Iraq assulat in 1991 was bold.

> <https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1496828741103796230?s=20&t=ycOCOetGmbKJiQwBSJW4lQ>
>
> Ragıp Soylu @ragipsoylu

In other news, in what is absolutely a co-incidence, some Russians opposition figures have been arrested.

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**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/13 "2022-02-24T14:32:24Z")

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We (the West) may not be able to avoid an actual war. From what I’ve read and heard the last couple of days, sanctions will have no effect.

This is sickening.

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**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/14 "2022-02-24T14:34:34Z")

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My understand is Russia media is reporting this as a defensive move against the Ukrainian military.

You know, that big bad hostile Ukrainian military.

This is just horrific. We never get any smarter as a whole, do we?

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**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/15 "2022-02-24T14:45:17Z")

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> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#):
>
> Difficult to see how Russia plans to control a country which is over 600,000 sq km in size, and with a population of 40m people, most of whom do not want them there.

They don’t have to control the entire country. They can seize the main roads, electrical grid, transport, and communications infrastructure. After a few weeks, the rural folks cut off from those amenities will beg to be controlled so that they can eat, drink, bathe, work. And if they don’t? Russia’s position will be “who cares”.

I’m in the camp who doesn’t expect Russia will have all that much difficulty dominating Ukraine. Yes, Ukraine’s military and popular resolve is stronger than people appreciate. The intensity of the initial fight will be severe, and Russia will be surprised to experience heavy losses. But Ukraine will burn itself out rapidly. It will be isolated by land, air, and sea. There will be no resupply or reinforcement from anywhere. Russia will gain the upper hand, and she has long experience occupying and controlling European countries.

There is some question about an insurgency… no doubt there will be some activity there, but will it be the “white Taliban” as some commentators have remarked? I don’t think so. Ukrainians hate Russia more than many people appreciate, but they’re not animated by an ideology that glorifies suicide attacks. They’re a well-educated European country with a high standard of living that will soon be keenly missed. They’ve lived under Russian rule before, and I’m sure that in a few weeks or months, most of the population will eventually calculate that it’s better to surrender and live to fight another day.

Disclaimer: predictions are risky, especially about the future. I’m not super confident about any analysis at this point.

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**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/16 "2022-02-24T14:50:06Z")

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I don’t know that it’s necessarily true; they could simply be choosing not to fight then and there. It would be stupid for the Ukrainians to try and hold the line everywhere against a numerically superior Russian attack- they’re far better off engaging in mobile warfare and doing things like counterattacks against undefended flanks, etc…

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**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/17 "2022-02-24T14:50:57Z")

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Fully expecting this to end in a puppet government rather than a full on annexation.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/18 "2022-02-24T15:09:28Z")

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In flat and (outside urban areas) sparsely populated terrain?

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**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/19 "2022-02-24T15:53:40Z")

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> [@What\_Exit](#):
>
> We never get any smarter as a whole, do we?

As we ourselves discovered, when you’ve got one buffoon making the decisions, things go down the shitter really fast.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/20 "2022-02-24T15:59:29Z")

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Flat, open and not built up terrain is tailor-made for armored/mobile warfare, not dogged attrition-style defense.

Even in WWII, most of the warfare in Ukraine was highly mobile, because the terrain lends itself to that sort of warfare.

[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=2)
