# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 109
### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2161 "2022-03-13T01:57:11Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#):
>
> This. The Russians had an impressive army on paper, but many if not most of the papers were forgeries designed to cover the diversion of military budgets into mansions and megayachts.
The Russian army entered the war with a strong reputation, and a sense that once the huge army was mobilised and entered battle, it would simply steamroll over the opposition. In truth, hidden corruption, poor training and command, lack of transport and logistic resources, poor planning, and a failure to use modern technology (such as sending out its orders in clear), all quickly showed that the Russian Army was greatly overrated. Losses quickly mounted.
I refer, of course, to the [opening campaign of 1914](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_East_Prussia_(1914)).
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2162 "2022-03-13T02:01:20Z")
> [@DPRK](#):
>
> “Do not send more troops, comrade general, it’s a trap! There are two of them.”
😀
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### Author:  [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2163 "2022-03-13T02:01:25Z")
… and the president of Russia surprising other nation’s leaders **and his own army** with the order to attack Ukr.
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### Author:  [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2164 "2022-03-13T02:20:38Z")
> [@DPRK](#):
>
> “Do not send more troops, comrade general, it’s a trap! There are two of them.”
That’s a great joke. I’d like it even MORE if it was made current by making it about Ukrainian soldiers instead of Finns. I almost rewrote the joke here with those changes just to see it.
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### Author:  [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2165 "2022-03-13T02:32:41Z")
Thanks for that! I’ve reworded it to “Ukraine” and “Russian soldiers” and sent it along to friends! 🙂
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### Author:  [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2166 "2022-03-13T02:37:15Z")
Before we gloat too much about the incompetence of the Russians, remember it’s only the 17th day of actual fighting. It took the Germans 18 days to capture Belgium and 27 days to capture Poland. Hell, it took the U.S. 19 days to capture Baghdad in 2003.
And I’d feel a lot more confident if Ukraine would blow up some of its major rail lines to foul up the Russian logistics even more.
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### Author:  [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2167 "2022-03-13T03:03:03Z")
Regardless of the outcome, the Russian army’s logistical incompetence and the poor quality of their equipment is on display for all the world to see. It’s a PR nightmare for Putin who can only deal with it by imposing draconian censorship and blocking outside media. Russia stands exposed as devoid of the most basic morality, devoid of leadership, and devoid of the kind of effective military technology most of us thought they had. Once a world power, they’re now more of a laughingstock, with only the ability to wreak indiscriminate carnage and, if their nukes still work, to destroy the world including themselves.
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### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2168 "2022-03-13T03:07:00Z")
> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> the Russian army’s logistical incompetence and the poor quality of their equipment is on display for all the world to see.
We are seeing little evidence there is anything wrong with their equipment. There are few stories to be had of T-72 guns not working, or Su-25s failing to acquire targets, or artillery failing to fire. After all, the Ukrainians are using essentially the same equipment. And they’re fighting very well. When equipment fails, like stories of tires blowing out, it goes to training.
What we are seeing are failures of leadership, organization, and training. If you gave this army the finest equipment the USA, Britain and France could provide, their results would be essentially the same.
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### Author:  [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2169 "2022-03-13T03:24:22Z")
Those are valid points, though the problems with tires were attributed to using poor quality Chinese tires – not that all Chinese tires are bad, but the better ones don’t blow out in normal use. The rest of the problems seem to be due to poor maintenance, poor logistics (tanks and other vehicles running out of gas or getting stuck in the mud) and simply being attacked and destroyed by Ukrainian forces. And bad morale among the Russian troops. Putin has now committed virtually the entirety of Russia’s ground forces, and lost nearly a third of it.
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### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2170 "2022-03-13T03:57:10Z")
> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> Putin has now committed virtually the entirety of Russia’s ground forces, and lost nearly a third of it.
Russia has certainly not lost a third of their ground forces. They haven’t lost a third of a third of a third. Even Ukraine’s highly optimistic claims of inflicted losses aren’t anywhere near that. Losing a third of their entire army in 16 days would be one of the bloodiest and most destructive military losses in human history, a disaster on par with Germany’s losses at Kursk, and what was left would be in open flight. They would be incapable of further operations and Ukraine would be crashing into Russia by now.
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### Author:  [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2171 "2022-03-13T04:08:59Z")
An interesting article but I don’t know how realistic it is. ([Preparing for Defeat](https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/))
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### Author:  [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2172 "2022-03-13T04:11:30Z")
Not quite the entirety of their ground forces, and losses not quite one-third, but according to post #2143, not too far off, either. I’m skeptical about Ukraine’s claims about Russian casualties, but the equipment losses seem reasonably credible, or at least consistent with what we’re seeing on the ground and the Russian army’s lack of progress:
> The article says that Russia has about 170 BTGs in total. From other sources, about 120-125 of those have already been committed to the war in Ukraine.
>
> As I posted [above](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine/960037/2098), Ukraine is saying that 18 battalion tactical groups have completely lost their combat capability, and 13 have been completely destroyed. So 31 are out of action.
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### Author:  [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2173 "2022-03-13T04:13:22Z")
See post 2119. The author doesn’t have very good record as a prognosticator.
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### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2174 "2022-03-13T04:27:02Z")
UKRAINE claims these losses:
> [@](#):
>
> As of March 11, the Ukrainian military reported a total of over 12,000 Russian fatalities since Feb. 24, along with 353 tanks, 1,165 light armored vehicles, 125 artillery pieces, 58 multiple launch rocket systems, 57 airplanes, and 83 helicopters.
Even assuming these numbers are true - and believe me, there is zero chance they are true - Russia started this war out with a lot more than 36,000 troops, 3485 light armored vehicles, 375 artillery pieces, etc. Those losses are a tiny portion of Russia’s army, which fields 300,000 regular soldiers and at least 500,000 reserves, and has well over 10,000 armored vehicles in regular service.
Even if 31 battalion groups have been destroyed or put out of service - which I don’t believe - they don’t just vanish. 13 BTGs haven’t been literally wiped out with 18 mauled, plus air losses; that would actually be far more individual losses than Ukraine has even claimed (A BTG has about 800 men.) A beaten up battalion, and 20-30% fatal losses would be very beat up, is shattered and incapable of effective offensive operations, will be withdrawn and reorganized with replacements or by being merged with other units.
If Ukraine has killed eight thousand Russians - which would be just one percent of their army, counting reserves - that alone would be a **incredibly significant loss** for Russia. Eight thousand is a very high fatality total for two weeks. Canada only averaged eight thousand fatalities per year in World War II and we were fighting all the time against the NAZIS. We didn’t have eight thousand men killed in France during the two months of Operation Overlord.
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### Author:  [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2175 "2022-03-13T04:35:58Z")
> [@RickJay](#):
>
> A beaten up battalion, and 20-30% fatal losses would be very beat up, is shattered and incapable of effective offensive operations
That works in favor of the original claim, though. If a battalion that’s suffered 25% losses is incapable of offensive operations, then it has lost 100% of its combat capability. You don’t need to kill/destroy nearly 1/3 of the enemy for 1/3 to count as “out of action.” At least until they reorganize, but that takes time, and Russian forces don’t seem to be very well organized to start with.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2176 "2022-03-13T05:50:35Z")
From Ukrainian sources [[1](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3428024-enemy-aircraft-bomb-sviatohirsk-lavra-in-donetsk-region.html), [2](https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/13/7330859/)] the Sviatohirsk Lavra Orthodox Monastery in Donetsk oblast was hit yesterday by an airstrike.
The monastery is under the Moscow Patriarchate, with 100+ monks and currently 500 refugees, mostly women and children.
It’s outside the town of Sviatohirsk, on the other side of the river. The head of the monastery says that there are no military units stationed in or near the monastery or town.
[ ](https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2EACGP1/svyatogorsk-ukraine-07162020-the-holy-mountains-lavra-of-the-holy-dormition-in-svyatogorsk-or-sviatohirsk-ukraine-on-a-sunny-summer-morning-2EACGP1.jpg)
Several were wounded, but nobody killed. Most of the windows were blown out, and some of the buildings damaged.
You really have to wonder what the Russians are thinking. They are failing militarily, and their only plan now seems to be to inflict indiscriminate casualties on civilians.
So much for uniting Russian culture and religion.
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### Author:  [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2177 "2022-03-13T06:06:13Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#):
>
> Interesting article, from before the war, about Russia’s poor logistics and heavy reliance on supply by rail.
[Wendover](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w) had a similar video piece last week: Inside the borders of Russia logistics works very well, thanks to its rail system. Outside Russia, not so much.
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### Author:  [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2178 "2022-03-13T06:15:51Z")
> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> Regardless of the outcome, the Russian army’s logistical incompetence and the poor quality of their equipment is on display for all the world to see.
One thing interesting about this war is the increased awareness of the world concerning logistics. In a very long [WWII YouTube video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4uDfg38gyk) (and no need to watch if you aren’t a WWII buff, author [D. M. Giangreco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Giangreco) of Hell to Pay: Operation Downfall and the Invasion of Japan, 1945-1947 discusses with the author of the YouTube channel Military History Visualized how people aren’t interested in logistics, even military historians, and the authors tend to brush over the topic very quickly, if they address it at all. It’s much sexier to write about the tank battles rather than the mundane accounts of how they get the ammunition in place.
The MHV author agrees, and says that any of the videos with logistics in the title automatically get only half the views.
> [@Kent\_Clark](#):
>
> And I’d feel a lot more confident if Ukraine would blow up some of its major rail lines to foul up the Russian logistics even more.
Besides [the ones coming in from Russia](https://www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/2022/02/26/railway-between-ukraine-and-russia-completely-destroyed/)?
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2179 "2022-03-13T06:47:38Z")
Carl Bildt, Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former Prime Minister of Sweden:
>
There’s an interesting thread in the replies about how these losses could be particularly problematic to the functioning of the Russian Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) system:
>
[Here’s a paper](https://professionalwargaming.co.uk/TheRelationshipBetweenBattleDamageAndCombatPerformance.pdf) on _The Relationship of Battle Damage to Unit Combat Performance_, investigating “the historical basis for the assumption that a military formation will cease to be effective after having lost a certain pre-ordained percentage of its strength.”
It does not support the idea of some fixed percentage, but has this to say, which doesn’t sound too good for the Russians:
> [@](#):
>
> There are five elements the loss of which can “put a unit out of action:”
>
> 1. Loss of personnel;
>
> 2. Loss of equipment, combat and support, through destruction by the enemy or by maintenance failure;
>
> 3. Failure of supply–POL and ammunition;
>
> 4. Collapse of the command structure–death of commanders, loss of communications;
>
> 5. Loss of morale.
>
> The “operability” of a formation is a function of the interrelationship of these elements. Of the five the last would seem to be the most important. Only the morale factor can explain the not uncommon pattern of heavily attrited units continuing to display good combat performance.
>
> Where morale has been high, even very heavy losses will not put a formation out of action. On the other hand, failure of morale can lead to panic or resignation in which defeat can occur with little accompanying battle damage. That morale is composed of many complex elements and is affected by an equal range, from simple lack of sleep to the way battle damage is suffered.
>
> Victory in battle is dependent upon the possession of two capabilities in greater degree than the enemy, namely, the ability to endure and the ability to injure. The former is primarily a function of morale and of the imponderables of leadership, training and fighting style and capacity. There are, to be sure, material factors like replacement flow, logistic supply, and medical services, but above all else is morale. If one’s morale is superior to that of the enemy, it may not be necessary to injure him badly. He may collapse after small or moderate losses. There is no shortage of such cases in history.
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### Author:  [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2180 "2022-03-13T08:37:42Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#):
>
> The Russians had an impressive army on paper, but many if not most of the papers were forgeries designed to cover the diversion of military budgets into mansions and megayachts.
Lots of “I never expected the leopards to eat _my_ face” energy in the conscious cultivation of a kleptocracy.
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