### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 8:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2181 "2022-03-13T08:52:52Z")
[ ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNtf5q9XEAI2zik?format=jpg&name=small)
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2182 "2022-03-13T14:15:44Z")
Anyone know what battle groups Ukraine uses? Maybe BTG since they are former members of the Soviet Union?
It must be difficult integrating the volunteer citizens defending the homeland.
The news from last night was pretty bad. Western Ukraine is getting hammered.
Russia doesn’t need a great army. Those damn missiles are wiping out cities.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2183 "2022-03-13T14:27:17Z")
> **[Award-winning US filmmaker Brent Renaud killed by Russian forces in Ukraine](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/journalist-ukraine-russia-irpin-war-b2034793.html)**
>
> Peabody Award-winning filmmaker fatally shot near Kyiv, police report
Video: An American working with him describes what happened, while being treated himself for a wound.
>
>
> ненастье @D8GalgysUAAPdwd
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### Author:  [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2184 "2022-03-13T14:47:37Z")
I wonder if the Ukrainians have made provisions for a government-in-exile.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2185 "2022-03-13T14:52:34Z")
> [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](#):
>
> I wonder if the Ukrainians have made provisions for a government-in-exile.
They don’t need to. They’re winning.
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### Author:  [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2186 "2022-03-13T14:54:22Z")
That probably will change. It is important to have embassies and national leaders when the capitol is taken and the politicians are killed.
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### Author:  [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2187 "2022-03-13T14:55:26Z")
On the ticker at the bottom of the CBC News it says: “Biden warns NATO involvement could escalate conflict with Russia”. I believe he should have reversed his statement to say: “Biden warns Russia that escalating conflict could result in NATO involvement”.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2188 "2022-03-13T14:58:29Z")
> [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](#):
>
> That probably will change.
The consensus of opinion among military and intelligence experts says otherwise.
Any reputable cites for your point of view?
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### Author:  [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2189 "2022-03-13T15:06:27Z")
> [@RickJay](#):
>
> We are seeing little evidence there is anything wrong with their equipment. There are few stories to be had of T-72 guns not working, or Su-25s failing to acquire targets, or artillery failing to fire. After all, the Ukrainians are using essentially the same equipment. And they’re fighting very well. When equipment fails, like stories of tires blowing out, it goes to training.
>
> What we are seeing are failures of leadership, organization, and training. If you gave this army the finest equipment the USA, Britain and France could provide, their results would be essentially the same.
Along the same lines, a comment of an ex-NATO big wig (sorry no cite, I am to overwhelmed by the fast flow of information - but it was on a mayor news site):
.
_The russian Anti-Aircraft-Defense is actually pretty good …_
_… when operated by the Ukrainians ._
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2190 "2022-03-13T15:06:40Z")
Mariupol can’t hold out much longer.
I saw a report another mayor was grabbed by Russians. They’re implementing their plan to replace government officials.
It’s going to be difficult to remove Russians from territory they’ve seized. Ukraine has its hands full just defending their territory.
Guardian Live Blog
> [@](#):
>
> **A total of 2,187 people in the port city of Mariupol have been killed since Russia invaded [Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), the city council has confirmed.**
>
> The city is besieged by Russian forces, and food and water are now running scarce. The BBC reported that some residents are draining radiators to get water to survive. A support convoy is two hours away, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday.
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### Author:  [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2191 "2022-03-13T15:07:45Z")
Here’s a little hopeful news from the Guardian’s live blog:
**Delegates from both sides of peace talks have sounded positive, ahead of more negotiations in the next few days.**
> Ukrainian negotiator and presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said talks had become more constructive.
> “We will not concede in principle on any positions. Russia now understands this. [Russia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) is already beginning to talk constructively. I think that we will achieve some results literally in a matter of days,” he said in a video posted online.
> Leonid Slutsky, a Russian delegate said there had been significant progress and they hoped to soon arrive at a “joint position”, Reuters reports.
> The state-owned RIA news agency said he was comparing the state of talks now with those when they first started, saying there had been “substantial progress”.
> “According to my personal expectations, this progress may grow in the coming days into a joint position of both delegations, into documents for signing,” Slutsky said. It was not clear what the scope of any such documents might be.
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### Author:  [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2192 "2022-03-13T15:08:47Z")
> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> Those are valid points, though the problems with tires were attributed to using poor quality Chinese tires – not that all Chinese tires are bad, but the better ones don’t blow out in normal use.
the problem is not the crappy chinese tires (if that’s true - it might fall under “folklore”) … the problem is learning about these things in your own war.
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### Author:  [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2193 "2022-03-13T15:30:57Z")
Q:
is there a chance that Ukr. will besiege the besiegers on the western part of kiev (with “idle” ukr. troops from the western part of the country) ??
I have a feeling the ukr. gets top-notch intel from the “alliance”, and obv. a lot of strategic/tactical advice.
my hunch is they have a few cards up their sleeve…
any thoughts?
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### Author:  [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2194 "2022-03-13T15:31:09Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#):
>
> Any reputable cites for your point of view?
Nope. Just my intuition. I bet on the side with the biggest battalions, as they say.
Things change over time. It is best to be ready with a backup government.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2195 "2022-03-13T15:34:38Z")
There has been some contingency planning by the US and EU:
> **[US and Europe weigh plans for Ukrainian government in exile | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/06/politics/ukraine-government-exile-us-europe/index.html)**
>
> US and European officials have been discussing how the West would support a government in exile helmed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should he have to flee Kyiv, Western officials told CNN.
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### Author:  [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2196 "2022-03-13T15:34:46Z")
If they’re going for Odessa, that would seem to say that they’re trying to connect Transnistria.
I’m less sold on the idea that Russia is nigh vanquished than most. I do think that the North will repel the invaders and the Ukrainian army is going to switch to offense before too long. But I don’t see their defensive strength translating over to offense. Maybe it will be good, maybe it will be horrible. I don’t think we can really know until we see how they perform in that roll but I don’t believe that they’re equipped for it.
Getting the Russians out of the Southeast corridor feels to me like a very difficult task, even for a well organized force.
Now if Russia decides to extend that corridor across the entire length of Ukraine, however… That’s starting to feel like a massively optimistic agenda. You’ve got to keep your supply lines stable across the length of Texas and any interruption at any time along that corridor is going to affect everything downstream. Not to mention how thinly you’re going to need to spread your troops.
If Russia connects Transnistria, (my sense is that) they’re really pinning their future on their ability to decapitate the Ukrainian leadership and then further relying on the hope and dream that no one stands up to replace it and keep Team Ukre plowing forward. Russia’s really going for all our nothing here.
That feels dumb to me. If Zelensky goes down then perhaps there’s a chance of it all working. But all Ukraine needs to do to prevent that from being their doom is to establish a strong line of succession for the military.
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### Author:  [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2197 "2022-03-13T15:36:04Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> There has been some contingency planning by the US and EU:
Thank you.
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### Author:  [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2198 "2022-03-13T15:36:40Z")
> [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](#):
>
> I wonder if the Ukrainians have made provisions for a government-in-exile.
I wouldn’t blame the Ukrainians one bit if all these videos of Zelensky are actually recorded on a set in the basement of a Warsaw TV studio.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2199 "2022-03-13T15:53:09Z")
> [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](#):
>
> Nope. Just my intuition.
🙄
I prefer facts and detailed analysis to intuition.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2022, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2200 "2022-03-13T15:54:50Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> There has been some contingency planning by the US and EU
But not by Ukraine.
If you remember, Biden offered Zelensky a ride out at the beginning of the war.
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