# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 115
### Author:  [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2281 "2022-03-14T13:35:09Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#):
>
> Their useful idiots like Gabbard and Carlson are just repeating this bullshit, out of dishonesty, ignorance, malevolence, or all three.
Then again, we’ve been through two years of having foreign bioresearch labs receiving international aid funding being touted as “evidence” of some nefarious ploy. So not new.
Meanwhile if I were the Mongolians I’d be becoming worried about the successor state to the guarantor of my independence becoming indebted to the power that has historically claimed me.
---
### Author:  [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2282 "2022-03-14T13:41:23Z")
> [@Capn\_Carl](#):
>
> A month ago, your chart would have no cities in orange. Now it does. That’s not “winning”.
> A month ago, another chart of Ukrainian cities that have been bombarded would have no cities in orange. Now it would. That’s not “winning”.
A boxer can have a black eye and a split lip and still be winning the fight.
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2283 "2022-03-14T13:59:34Z")
That’s why I don’t understand Peace Talks.
The war is totally one sided. Ukraine hasn’t launched one missle towards Russia. All the fighting and destruction is in Ukraine.
Imagine 8 hours of “please leave our country” response “No”.
There’s not much bargaining room. Unless Ukraine wants to lose more territory. That’s no solution. Putin will be back in a few years to grab more.
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### Author:  [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2284 "2022-03-14T14:05:35Z")
“You occupy Ukraine, we occupy you” 💪
> **[Four arrested after protest at Oleg Deripaska’s London mansion](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/mar/14/squatters-occupy-russian-billionaire-oleg-deripaska-london-mansion)**
>
> Group earlier said they had made peace with arrest after claiming property for Ukrainian refugees
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2285 "2022-03-14T14:05:41Z")
Maybe Ukrainians who support Russia? They made a choice of dying or living under occupation.
Guardian live blog
> [@](#):
>
> **More than 160 private cars have been able to leave the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol and were en route to the Russian-occupied town of Berdyansk, the city council said.**
>
> Over the past week, repeated efforts to evacuate civilians trapped in Mariupol have failed.
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### Author:  [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2286 "2022-03-14T14:06:27Z")
> [@Al128](#):
>
> when was the last time your own gov. website had a section of **“famous people about the president”** :
“President Xi came up to President Lukashenko with tears in his eyes and said ‘Sir…’”
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2287 "2022-03-14T14:31:11Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#):
>
> Now they are trying to get mercenaries from Syria,
If you’re a mercenary from Syria, and Russia offers you a job, I imagine you’d ask to be paid in dollars, or pounds, or euros, or basically anything other than worthless rubles.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2288 "2022-03-14T14:31:27Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> Imagine 8 hours of “please leave our country” response “No”.
[Christo Grosev](https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1503004404911325185) of Bellingcat is not optimistic about the talks:
> Russia’s negotiator Slutsky says there’s been “significant progress in the negotiations” and he expects there may be a signed deal in the next 2 to 3 days.
>
> This is a notable development in light of the growing awareness at the Kremlin of the decrepit state of the RU army & the blunders of the pre-invasion intel. If confirmed by UA side, this would likely mean a truce on Zelenskys’ terms.
>
> The more I think about this, the worse of a feeling I get. As is clear since he arrested the FSB general(s), he is no longer in denial of the failure of his Ukrane plan, thus he can either withdraw or go out with a bang.
>
> But there’s no workable compromise that Ukraine can agree to that will not result in Putin being disgraced domestically. So what’s the mythical agreement RU says they are close to? Sounds implausible.
>
> Hoping for the best, but the “two or three days till agreement” that RU introduced into the equation sounds more and more like a threat.
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### Author:  [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2289 "2022-03-14T14:35:49Z")
If Ukraine says they will not join NATO, Putin can try to paint that as a win. Since he pretty much controls the narrative in mainstream Russian media he can convince the people. His real problem is the political classes in Russia who will see him as a liability to the Russian economy.
So expect a purge - one that has in fact already begun. If you want to know how Putin will act imagine what a Mafia boss would do.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2290 "2022-03-14T14:46:01Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#):
>
> So expect a purge - one that has in fact already begun. If you want to know how Putin will act imagine what a Mafia boss would do.
The other possibility (we can hope) is that the generals and security establishment chiefs who now feel threatened by Putin will purge him instead.
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### Author:  [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2291 "2022-03-14T14:51:38Z")
I wonder how long it takes to manufacture Javelins, Stingers and the like. If it’s months, then there’s nothing the West can do but just deplete its existing stockpiles via donations to Ukraine; by the time the new missiles arrived the war may be over.
Unless we’re looking at a years-long insurgency.
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### Author:  [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2292 "2022-03-14T14:55:06Z")
> [@Machine\_Elf](#):
>
> To be fair, the US only lost 139 troops during the initial invasion of Iraq, and we did capture Baghdad. Russia has now lost many thousands of troops, and they haven’t yet captured the Ukraine capital.
I’ve just looked it up. During the Polish invasion during WWII, Nazi Germany started September 1st and Soviet Russia the 16th. The conquest was finished by October 6th and it was the Germans who took Warsaw, with about 15 times the Russian casualties.
Not knowing that 90% of the Wehrmacht’s forces were committed in Poland, the French and British responses were tepid, the former making a small [incursion into Saarland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saar_Offensive), and the BEF had not even gotten the bulk of its forces into France until September 27th.
[Wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Expeditionary_Force_(World_War_II))
So, poor Vlad doesn’t have an ally handy to take the brunt of the fighting this time around.
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### Author:  [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2293 "2022-03-14T14:55:09Z")
Pretty sure the West can produce Javelins at a higher rate than Russia can produce T-72s.
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### Author:  [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2294 "2022-03-14T15:03:54Z")
Yes but the T-72s are already there, the Javs may be needed for other targets, not every Javelin will hit or be delivered where it needs to be, and Ukraine could always use a stockpile on hand.
At any rate, if we’re in a stalemate situation right now - things have ground to a halt - then Russia is screwed. The outside volunteers, weapons, supplies will just keep flowing in from Poland.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2295 "2022-03-14T15:11:38Z")
> [@Velocity](#):
>
> At any rate, if we’re in a stalemate situation right now - things have ground to a halt - then Russia is screwed. The outside volunteers, weapons, supplies will just keep flowing in from Poland.
Unless Putin figures he’ll just hit bases in Poland with nukes and the west will just crumble. He’s fucked up every other decision in this, so why assume he’ll change course now? I’m afraid the result of this may well be a strike against Moscow, and any location where Putin might be.
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### Author:  [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2296 "2022-03-14T15:18:33Z")
> [@Velocity](#):
>
> I wonder how long it takes to manufacture Javelins, Stingers and the like. If it’s months, then there’s nothing the West can do but just deplete its existing stockpiles via donations to Ukraine; by the time the new missiles arrived the war may be over.
>
> Unless we’re looking at a years-long insurgency.
In Googling, [I found this cite](https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines-use-of-stinger-and-javelin-missiles-is-outstripping-us-production/?sh=61decd692409):
> Today, the Javelin production line may merit reinvigoration. Production cuts have been substantial over the past decade: between FY 1999 and FY 2001, the U.S. procured some 9,848 Javelins, while, in the most recent three-year period (between FY 2020 and FY 2022), missile procurement shrank to a total of 2,037.
So it seem the US currently produces about **2,000** per year. It’s not clear how much they could increase that in a short time frame.
ETA: that should be about 700 per year, the number above is for a three year period, I misread that line. So it’s even worse than that.
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### Author:  [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2297 "2022-03-14T15:19:17Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> If you’re a mercenary from Syria, and Russia offers you a job, I imagine you’d ask to be paid in dollars, or pounds, or euros, or basically anything other than worthless rubles.
heck, even a Nescafé coupon goes a longer way than the ruble now in Russia 😉
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### Author:  [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2298 "2022-03-14T15:20:05Z")
That’s the problem in being the Arsenal of Democracy – it takes a while to spool up. Today’s wars are come-as-you-are.
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### Author:  [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2299 "2022-03-14T15:21:52Z")
when was the last time we saw Mr. P. “live”?
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### Author:  [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2022, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2300 "2022-03-14T15:22:45Z")
Yeah, I just made the same point [in another thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happened-to-war/961027/8).
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