# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 134
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2661 "2022-03-17T22:01:37Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > > [@Cardigan](#): > > > > I would REALLY like to hear about how that special op got pulled off. Maybe some day we’ll get the details. > > That day is today. Apparently, prisoner exchange, not special ops. > > BBC: > > > [@](#): > > > > The mayor of Melitopol, who was reportedly kidnapped by Russian forces five days ago, was freed after Ukraine agreed to exchange nine captured Russian soldiers for him, according to a senior Ukrainian presidential aide. Honestly… given how things are developing I’m now worried about what will happen to those Russian soldiers. > [@dougrb](#): > > Good news guys, you get to go home. Almost certainly not - Putin would not want their eyewitness report to make the rounds back home. > [@Velocity](#): > > I also noticed in the Biden $800 million assistance package there was no mention of food or fuel. Those two things must be weighing heavily, even if less attention-getting than weapons. Given that the Russians would like to have some of that food and fuel perhaps it is best not to advertise its location or even existence? Also, the Europeans might be sending food. And if I recall Biden was trying to get suppliers of fuel in places like the Middle East to ship directly to Europe. ---
**Author:** ![Dan\_ch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a4c791/32.png) [@Dan\_ch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dan_ch)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2662 "2022-03-17T22:03:38Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > It’s _not_ all doom and gloom. I thought the guy actually gave a pretty balanced analysis. Compared to much of the reporting we’ve seen, though, it seemed to look more objectively than the vast majority and didn’t pull any punches in pointing out Russian successes (e.g. a cache of 100’s of Ukrainian AT weapons captured near Donbas, successfully installing fuel line for northern offensive running to Byelorussia for fuel resupply, etc.) as well as their obvious shortcomings and outright failures. Indeed, we’re mostly getting our news from Ukrainian-friendly media, which probably self-censors itself to a large degree (for good reasons, no one wants to reveal info that might be useful to the Russians or raise their morale). But it’s quite clear that the Russian army got a bloody nose, has high losses in men and equipment, poor logistics and (at least in some cases) it’s poorly led. However, we have no idea how stretched the Ukrainian army is. We can guess that some parts of it are still in quite good shape (no Russian air supremacy implies that Ukrainian AA is still alive and kicking), but we don’t know what’s the overall situation of their units - which probably varies a lot from Kyiv (which I guess gets highest priority in terms of men and equipment) and Donbass. Can they still supply their troops in Donbass, or provide them AA cover? My impression is that Russia is still winning - they’re still advancing on all fronts, especially from the South. And the more worrying part is that the Ukrainians did not launched any counterattacks so far; sure, they keep pestering the Russian supply lines, but haven’t really fully cut any of them. Maybe this is about to change; a few days ago there was a Russian “tentacle” heading North-West from Mykolaiv, probably trying to bypass it on their way to Odessa. [Apparently it reached as far as Voznesensk](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734), but then, looking at the latest map on [https://liveuamap.com/](https://liveuamap.com/), the Ukrainians pushed them back past Nykolaiv and now are getting close to Kherson. If they can get Kherson back, this would secure the Western side of the Dniepr. Which could be crucial if/when Mariupol falls, since that would free additional Russian forces that could be used to push further West if they’d still have bridgeheads across the river. In any case, I think reports from Ukraine give a fair idea about what happens, despite not mentioning Ukrainian losses; for instance, there’s this report from Radio Free Europe [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_ryCBcq\_qxk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ryCBcq_qxk) which sounds quite balanced (Ukrainian soldiers talking about the Russians: “The Russian forces here were skilled.” “We mined their rear. Some of the damage is not critical and we can use their weapons.” “I have not personally seen looting, but the locals report it.” - sounds like reporting facts, not spewing propaganda). ---
**Author:** ![Dan\_ch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a4c791/32.png) [@Dan\_ch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dan_ch)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2663 "2022-03-17T22:08:22Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Honestly… given how things are developing I’m now worried about what will happen to those Russian soldiers. IIRC, some of the Russian/Soviet prisoners of war returning home after the defeat of Germany in WW2 were sent straight to the Gulag. So yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if those soldiers will be considered traitors. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2664 "2022-03-17T22:12:40Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > One longterm problem mentioned on Reddit: It’s possible that, in the years and decades ahead, Russia will become so poor and desperate that it will no longer be able to maintain satisfactory security over each of its 6,000+ nuclear warheads. The odds of some rogue guy with the means selling a few nukes on the black market go up. > [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > America will have the money to buy. Maybe so will Ukraine… rethinking their giving up of their nukes back in the 1990’s. And I wouldn’t blame them one bit if they made that choice. > [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > Zelenskyy has continued to make urgent requests for a NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine. He asked the U.S. Congress directly. But NATO has refused each time and each time their explanation hasn’t really changed, has it? > > That explanation being: If either Russia or NATO were to, e.g., kill an opposing-side pilot and aircraft it could—gradually or in minutes—lead to nuclear war. So the answer was, and still is: “Sorry dude, but it’s a hard no.” > > NATO’s answer and their reasoning must be obvious to, and expected by, Zelenskyy, even if he disagrees with it. So what is his response to hearing: _“Because Nuclear Armageddon”_ for the umpteenth time? How does he counter the concerns of a no-fly zone provocation (either way) possibly leading to nuclear war? > > I’ll add that I’m totally supportive of this guy and Ukraine and I very much wish NATO _could_ do a no-fly zone. But I see why they are not doing it. I’m just curious how Zelenskyy has responded to this. I am beginning to think that the very public back-and-forth over the no-fly zone, and perhaps also over the MiG jets, is to distract from something else going on in the background. > [@DavidNRockies](#): > > This just in: Russian state TV reports that the four reportedly-killed Generals actually died from long-standing cardiovascular disease. Yes, if you stand exposed too long in an active war zone you will find your cardiovascular system non-functional. Mainly due to high-speed lead poisoning. ---
**Author:** ![carnut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnut/32/3531_2.png) [@carnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnut)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2665 "2022-03-17T22:13:37Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > One possible motive is that a Ukrainian victory is a bad moral message for China, it could have the effect of letting uppity little countries like Taiwan think they could fight off a Chinese invasion, and so Beijing needs the outcome of this war to be a Ukrainian defeat, in order to dampen any Taiwanese enthusiasm. I think China might see it in their interest to back Russia because of Taiwan. This way: A) they can call on Russia’s help when they make that move if need be, B) it is better to be owed than to owe and this would put China in that position, and C) like China, Russia is an autocratic country despite their claims of democracy and China is familiar with it aka the devil they know. ---
**Author:** ![Mk\_VII](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Mk\_VII](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mk_VII)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2666 "2022-03-17T22:25:14Z")
It’s not a good look that they have to go rattling their begging bowl to the Chinese, after only three weeks, and a war of choice, too. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2667 "2022-03-17T22:27:30Z")
> [@Dan\_ch](#): > > Maybe this is about to change; a few days ago there was a Russian “tentacle” heading North-West from Mykolaiv, probably trying to bypass it on their way to Odessa. [Apparently it reached as far as Voznesensk](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734), but then, looking at the latest map on [https://liveuamap.com/](https://liveuamap.com/), the Ukrainians pushed them back past Nykolaiv and now are getting close to Kherson. Tweet from article’s author: > It’s behind a paywall, so I haven’t read the article, but its title sounds promising: > **[A Ukrainian Town Deals Russia One of the War’s Most Decisive Routs](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734?st=66i3s9nsa5lnh6m&reflink=share_mobilewebshare)** > > In the two-day battle of Voznesensk, local volunteers and the military repelled the invaders, who fled leaving behind armor and dead soldiers. ‘They had no orders for what to do if they are defeated.’ ---
**Author:** ![carnut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnut/32/3531_2.png) [@carnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnut)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2668 "2022-03-17T22:27:57Z")
> [@Mk\_VII](#): > > It’s not a good look that they have to go rattling their begging bowl to the Chinese, after only three weeks, and a war of choice, too. Correct. The Chinese can hold this over their heads for a long time to come. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2669 "2022-03-17T23:42:08Z")
Latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War: > **[Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17)** > > Russian forces did not make any major advances and Ukrainian forces carried out several local counterattacks on March 17. Russian forces made little territorial progress and continued to deploy reserve elements—including from the 1st Guards Tank Army... ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2670 "2022-03-17T23:45:22Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > Latest reports are that he’s been fired. I wonder what that word means at his job? He gets sent to the Russian Front. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2022, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2671 "2022-03-18T00:09:12Z")
CBC News covers Arnold’s impassioned speech, including the full video clip. CNN has yet to mention it (although, being CNN, they do bring us the vital information that Kanye West was banned from Instagram for 24 hours 🙄 ). > **[Schwarzenegger to Russians on Twitter: You're being fed misinformation about...](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/schwarzenegger-twitter-message-russians-1.6388524)** > > Former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on Thursday told the Russian people that they are being fed misinformation about their country's assault on Ukraine and appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the attack. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2022, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2672 "2022-03-18T00:10:28Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > Latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War: > > [https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17) The article mentions “Naval Infantry Brigade”. Is that the Russian equivalent of Marines? ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2022, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2673 "2022-03-18T00:27:41Z")
I read an interesting thread today that explained how in Putin’s hierarchy of power, the military is the neglected red-headed stepchild. It’s beneath the Russian mob, which in turn is beneath the security services. Apparently Putin allows (or encourages) both those factions to parasitize the military to keep it weak, both by siphoning resources and by promoting from outside (from the security services). In the realm of wild-ass speculation, one could theorize that perhaps Putin saw his grip on power weakening, and saw the military as a threat, and sent it into Ukraine to get it ground down to something more manageable. Meanwhile on the homefront, the war is an excuse for Putin to consolidate power, purge the disloyal, and clamp down on opposition. Russia has nukes, so it has no real need to maintain much of a conventional deterrent. Perhaps Putin saw this as a no-lose scenario. If Zelensky takes a fall and Putin installs a puppet to replace him, great, Putin is covered in glory. If Ukraine prevails and duo-decimates the Russian Army… that’s not exactly ideal, but the sizeable silver lining is that Putin consolidates his position as a dictator with no real threat from the Army. As I said, that’s wild-ass speculation on my part, but it could help explain why Putin would make such a reckless and arguably stupid gamble. Maybe Putin could meet some of his own individual objectives without securing a decisive military victory. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2022, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2674 "2022-03-18T00:30:05Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > The article mentions “Naval Infantry Brigade”. Is that the Russian equivalent of Marines? Yep. Latest intelligence update from UK’s Ministry of Defence: [![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOFlkWBWUAYvUBr?format=jpg&name=medium) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOFlkWBWUAYvUBr?format=jpg&name=medium) ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2022, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2675 "2022-03-18T00:32:11Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > CBC News covers Arnold’s impassioned speech, including the full video clip. . . . > > [Schwarzenegger to Russians on Twitter: You're being fed misinformation about this 'illegal war' | CBC News](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/schwarzenegger-twitter-message-russians-1.6388524) This is a master class in how to talk to people, with whom you radically disagree, and have some chance of getting them to listen to you. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2022, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2676 "2022-03-18T00:34:09Z")
Is there a way to quote Ministry of Defence in a friendlier format? Like plain text? The tiny white on blue letters are unreadable. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2022, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2677 "2022-03-18T00:41:24Z")
Click on it and a larger version should open. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2022, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2678 "2022-03-18T00:56:19Z")
> > > Arnold @Schwarzenegger ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2022, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2679 "2022-03-18T00:56:26Z")
Or you post it like this, as I normally do: [![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOFlkWBWUAYvUBr?format=jpg&name=small) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOFlkWBWUAYvUBr?format=jpg&name=small) (Smaller graphic, rather than a resized larger one.) ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2022, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2680 "2022-03-18T00:58:06Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > > [@wolfpup](#): > > > > CBC News covers Arnold’s impassioned speech, including the full video clip. . . . > > > > [Schwarzenegger to Russians on Twitter: You're being fed misinformation about this 'illegal war' | CBC News](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/schwarzenegger-twitter-message-russians-1.6388524) > > This is a master class in how to talk to people, with whom you radically disagree, and have some chance of getting them to listen to you. Agreed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=133) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=135)