# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/261 "2022-02-26T15:12:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Kazakhstan, up until now a close ally of Russia, has refused Russia’s request for troops and to recognize the bullshit republics: > > They’re probably wisely worried that they could be next if this succeeds. There was a recent uprising against the Kazakh government, which was put down with help from Russian troops. They people in power are probably worried that if they send their people to die for Putin they’ll have another revolt on their hands (with the Russian Army preoccupied and thus less able to save them again). ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/262 "2022-02-26T15:24:46Z")
My goodness, Vlodymyr Zelensky is a mensch. It is difficult to exaggerate what an unlikely guy he is. His life is basically a Hollywood story; he is as ridiculous a choice for head of state as Kevin Kline in “Dave.” He’s literally a sitcom star who ran for president because he played a guy on TV who was an unlikely president. The guy’s political party is named after that sitcom. It’s insane. It would be like Julia Louis-Dreyfus being elected President solely because of Veep (if Selena Meyer wasn’t a monster.) When he was elected he just openly admitted he didn’t know what he was doing but was willing to learn; all he wanted to do was fight corruption and unite his country. But this dude yesterday, who by all logic should be shitting his pants four times a day, just flat out told the USA when they offered to evacuate him “I need ammunition, not a ride.” He’s visiting troops on the front line. He is rallying his people in a defense that is probably doomed but is as stiff as anyone could have hoped for; the Ukrainians are fighting like legends. A COMEDIAN is probably going to die defending his country and he appears to know it and he is saying “Can’t lead from behind” and standing tall. I wish my country had statesmen like this. The man is a hero for the ages. ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/263 "2022-02-26T15:31:01Z")
I wIsh my country did, too. What a contrast to trump. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/264 "2022-02-26T15:40:14Z")
You’re still being awfully defeatist, IMO. This isn’t over. Russia may have just made a huge blunder and may not have been prepared for more than a week or two of fighting (according to various reports on Twitter and elsewhere). If that’s true, Ukraine may even do what was thought impossible - win this war, or fight long enough that Russia has to retreat (or even better, Putin is revealed as an incompetent weakling and falls himself). This may be overly optimistic - we’ll see. But I don’t think you should be nearly so confident that Ukraine or its leader are doomed. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/265 "2022-02-26T15:43:45Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > And, FWIW, Alexander Vindman just made the same statement on CNN (Smerconish). > > I have to wonder what price Turkey is willing to pay to enforce this ban. I’m just pleasantly surprised that Erdogan is standing up to Russia at all. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/266 "2022-02-26T16:06:01Z")
Putin tried to help a Turkish coup a bit back. That sort of thing may not instill happy feelings. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/267 "2022-02-26T16:14:05Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > The Russians have now fired on Japanese and Moldovan flagged ships in the Black Sea. > > [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldovan-flagged-tanker-hit-by-missile-ukraine-coast-2022-02-25/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldovan-flagged-tanker-hit-by-missile-ukraine-coast-2022-02-25/) > > Who had “Third Russo-Japanese War” on their bingo card? Japan isn’t allowed to fight a war outside of self defense anymore. Pulling Japan into the fight pulls the US in to fight on their behalf. No doubt with support from the Japanese. I suspect (hope) that these incidents were genuine accidents. Otherwise it’s attempted escalation and that’s not a road I want to see the world go down. > [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > I’ve only read part way through this. Forgive me if this has already been covered… things are moving fast. > > Can someone tell me what we see here in [this video](https://twitter.com/Ukrainelive5/status/1497140960127590401)?\* Is this an honest-to-goodness aerial dogfight? I thought those had gone the way of the musket. > > \*What are the specifics of who flew which way, and, did we see a air-2-air missile detonate? Aaannnd, is a Russian fighter-jet killed by a Ukrainian aircraft in this video? Apparently faked. There is a LOT of stuff being posted on line that either computer-simulated, taken out of a game, or from prior conflicts in other places that is labeled as from Ukraine. Some Russian aircraft have, definitely, been shot down. The actual details of how that happened are scant. Be skeptical. > [@Smapti](#): > > I’m reading reports that a number of the Russian foot soldiers have been begging for food as the army hasn’t fed them in days, and that tanks are running out of fuel and trying to buy gas from the locals. One source is saying the Russians have suffered ~3500 casualties, a number which, if correct, means they’ve lost nearly as many soldiers in two days as the US lost in Iraq in 7 years. > > If true, it would appear that Russia has woefully undersupplied its troops and was planning to shock-and-awe the Ukrainians into quick submission, and that they really weren’t prepared for mass resistance or a lengthy campaign. I’m hearing reports that Russia did, in fact, count on a rapid advance with little resistance, a quick “decapitation” of the Kyiv government, and installation of a puppet regime in short order. One theory is that, instead of engaging with a superior force directly, the Ukrainians “melted” into the local area and did NOT engage and the Russians rolled in, then came around behind them to cut thin supply lines. Thus isolating the invaders and denying them resupply. Also, even BEFORE the Russians crossed into Ukraine there were reports of Russian soldiers at staging areas not being supplied with food and having to buy it locally. NOT good for morale. Then, if they advanced, had their supply cut behind them… well, that really, really sucks for the Russians. A hungry army doesn’t fight long. Opportunities to loot food might be sparse. Also, something weird and darkly humorous about invaders attempting to buy gas from the people they’re invading. Wonder when they get to the point they trade arms for food? Even if that’s true, it would be in limited areas. Troops in cities can probably loot sufficient food and supplies in the short term. > [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > I haven’t seen any reports of catastrophic Russian food and fuel supply problems. I am not sure I believe a [meaw.com](http://meaw.com) report. Maybe wait until it’s confirmed elsewhere? If this IS a problem it’s unlikely to start everywhere in the entire invading army, but rather as we see, in scattered locations. As time goes on, though, the supply situation could get worse for the Russians. It’s not catastrophic now, it could become that in a week. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/268 "2022-02-26T16:18:16Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Ukraine may even do what was thought impossible - win this war, or fight long enough that Russia has to retreat (or even better, Putin is revealed as an incompetent weakling and falls himself). One of my favorite images is a sign reading (from memory): “Putin: Let’s jump ahead to the scene where you kill yourself in a bunker.” ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/269 "2022-02-26T16:21:07Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > One theory is that, instead of engaging with a superior force directly, the Ukrainians “melted” into the local area and did NOT engage and the Russians rolled in, then came around behind them to cut thin supply lines. Thus isolating the invaders and denying them resupply. That’s what I’d do, especially all those civilians who were being handed a rifle on request. At best (for the Russians) they’d have to keep an inordinate number of assets behind to protect their supply lines. More likely we’re going to hear more stories about hungry soldiers and vehicles with no fuel in the next couple days. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/270 "2022-02-26T16:25:55Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Also, even BEFORE the Russians crossed into Ukraine there were reports of Russian soldiers at staging areas not being supplied with food and having to buy it locally. NOT good for morale. Then, if they advanced, had their supply cut behind them… well, that really, really sucks for the Russians. This is one of those things that sounds more like wishful thinking myth than reality. It would be weirdly out of character for a Russian army to ignore the importance of logistics to this absurd a degree. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/271 "2022-02-26T16:26:13Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > I’m seeing speculation that Putin might resort to high-power thermobaric weapons. > > Would that be considered crossing a moral line? Well, sure, but it’s not like he hasn’t already crossed moral lines. > [@aceplace57](#): > > Would the use of that weapon against troops or a city be a war crime? Yes. Targeting a civilian city and/or burning it down is now considered a war crime. Like Putin hasn’t ordered other types of war crime. Again, I don’t see the ethics of the weapon or situation being an obstacle for Putin if he thinks he can gain by the use of such things. > [@aceplace57](#): > > It’s a bit of a problem for the US. We used one against the Taliban. It’s my understanding it was a rural area and a few hundred fighters. We didn’t create massive casualities in the thousands. Arguably, if we used it against a military installation it’s “OK” for certain values of “OK”. However, given how it kills human beings, particularly those on the fringes of its effects, even using it against soldiers is arguably a war crime. The US use of such weapons is of dubious morality at best, let’s not sugar-coat this. > [@aceplace57](#): > > I know Putin is considered ruthless. Would he cross the line and become a war criminal by wiping out a defenseless Ukrainian city? I believe he would. > [@aceplace57](#): > > I would hope that Putin’s political base would revolt against committing atrocities.The Ukraine was a cofounder of the Soviet Union. Russians and Ukrainians share a lot of common history. I believe Putin’s power base - his real one - doesn’t give flip about human beings outside their protected little circle. I don’t see them having a problem with killing people and breaking things to achieve objectives if that is what must be done to do the job. I mean, it’s not like they’ve shown any evidence of caring up to this point. > [@aceplace57](#): > > Imho, the best possible outcome… > > Putin will eventually declare victory and withdraw forces from Ukraine. > > Russia will have once again taken territory from Ukraine. No one would dare attack the forces in the new Russian republics. > > Ukraine emerges battered and bruised. Defiant but certainly aware they can’t poke the Russian bear. NATO membership is off the table. > > International sanctions end and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is certified by Germany. How is rewarding Putin, after he has killed and destroyed, by giving in to his demands and resuming trade with him “the best possible outcome”? Wouldn’t that result in him pulling this shit again a few years down the line? Who next? Carve a bit out of Moldova? Another slice of Ukraine? What else? > [@aceplace57](#): > > The worst outcome would be a prolonged and bloody war in Ukraine. Putin may just dig in and repeat the mistakes made in Afghanistan. No, worst outcome would be an escalation into WWIII and we all die in a nuclear exchange. In comparison to that, a “prolonged and bloody war” is awful, but not the most awful. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/272 "2022-02-26T16:30:28Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > This is one of those things that sounds more like wishful thinking myth than reality. It would be weirdly out of character for a Russian army to ignore the importance of logistics to this absurd a degree. And yet, we’re already seeing examples of vehicles stranded on the side of the road without fuel. I’ve also noted there are several videos of Russian armored vehicles driving around by themselves kind of aimlessly. Getting cut off from your unit is a good way to get ambushed and killed, and yet, that started happening almost immediately. It’s not conclusive, but none of that is a good sign. Things breaking down that quickly after weeks of prep work suggests the Russians have a lot of real problems that were not apparent when they were mostly just sitting around. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/273 "2022-02-26T16:33:29Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > But this dude yesterday, who by all logic should be shitting his pants four times a day, just flat out told the USA when they offered to evacuate him “I need ammunition, not a ride.” See, that’s the brilliance of electing an actor - he might indeed be shitting his pants four times a day (or more) but his acting skills can keep him from showing that on camera. And that is a brilliant line. > [@RickJay](#): > > This is one of those things that sounds more like wishful thinking myth than reality. It would be weirdly out of character for a Russian army to ignore the importance of logistics to this absurd a degree. Reality can often be stranger than fiction. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/274 "2022-02-26T16:35:14Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > And yet, we’re already seeing examples of vehicles stranded on the side of the road without fuel. This is not a terribly uncommon event for a fast moving motorized army. You’ll note they were not out of fuel _before the war started._ They got into Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/275 "2022-02-26T16:38:52Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > You’ll note they were not out of fuel _before the war started._ That seems like the lowest bar an army could possibly set for itself. Like, “There were no combat casualties before the shooting started” kind of low bar. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/276 "2022-02-26T16:46:12Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It would be weirdly out of character for a Russian army to ignore the importance of logistics to this absurd a degree. I suspect that the problem isn’t the Russian army itself – it’s the Russian kleptocracy. Logistics is one of those areas where it’s fairly easy to skim without any (immediate) noticeable effects. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/277 "2022-02-26T16:48:21Z")
Like the US Army. During the Iraqi invasion, the US forces regularly outran their supply train. > **[ADA450161.pdf](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA450161.pdf)** > > 436.43 KB ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/278 "2022-02-26T16:57:21Z")
The war is three days old. 🤦‍♂️ Here are some [US Army 2003 invasions records](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA450161.pdf) page 30-31 > The > invasion forces’ operational objective was Baghdad, and success depended on speed and > synchronization as opposed to the emphasis on mass as experienced in ODS.49 … > On March 23, 2003, US forces began taking significant casualties and the advance on > Baghdad slowed immensely. According to Anthony H. Cordesman, “…_ **some outside observers** _ > _ **\> concluded that the pace of the U.S. land advance threatened to bog down for days or weeks** _ > _ **\> because Iraq was making creative use of asymmetric warfare in attacking the U.S. lines of** _ > _ **\> advance.”** _ Concerns arose over the limited amount of available forces, the lack of preliminary air > strikes, and the stiff, albeit irregular, Iraqi counterattacks and defenses encountered by US forces. > _These arguments gained validity as elements of the US V Corps paused for several days to_ > _\> regroup, and intense urban fighting near Al Kut halted the Marines.50 According to Lieutenant_ > _\> General William Wallace, the commander of the V Corps, “The adjustment that we made was to_ > _\> actually fight and have a presence in some of these urban areas that we had not really planned to_ > _\> do. We planned to bypass them. But we found it necessary to establish a presence to stop these_ > _\> paramilitaries from influencing our operations_ And more > Attacks by irregular Iraqi forces, a sudden sandstorm, and the sheer tempo of operations > created a challenging tactical situation. The combination of effects “led to continuing > coordination problems between forward combat elements and combat support, service support, > and logistic forces.”56 These problems further affected the operational level and below by poor > rear area communications and digital systems incapable of properly tracking or forecasting the > battlefield effects on logistic requirements. T_ **hese issues, coupled with the ad hoc nature of the** _ > _ **\> flow of logistic units into theater, fostered an extremely complex logistic environment that** _ > _ **\> contributed, as in ODS, to a loss of faith in the supply system.** _ > _ **\> 57 The logistic measures taken in** _ > _ **\> preparation for the offensive failed to negate the impacts of these issues.** _ > Author Walter Boyne wrote in Operation Iraqi Freedom: What Went Right, What Went > Wrong, And Why that “[d]espite all the statements to the contrary, the V Corps and the MEF > outran their supply lines, and this not only hampered their forward movement but also exposed them to the possibility of dangerous counterattack.”58 In Logistics Transformation—Restarting a > Stalled Process, Lieutenant Colonel Victor Maccagnan, Jr. writes that while combat formations > have been outdistancing their supplies lines for centuries, the fact that this situation continues to > trouble the US Army after so many years of transformation efforts directed at preventing just > such an occurrence is particularly troubling. Lieutenant Colonel Maccagnan, Jr. states that there > are a “myriad of stories of units pleading for more ammunition—always ammunition first—and > for other supplies…” during the course of OIF.59 Clearly, distribution of critical supplies did not > keep pace with the offensive and certainly contributed to the occurrence of the pause. However, > before turning to the logistic measures taken in support of the offensive one must determine if a > pause was planned, or even expected. Wow, look at that. The _exact same_ issues the Russians are facing now. Plus a sandstorm, Clearly the US military in 2003 was heavily pilfering from its logistics dumps. /s ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/279 "2022-02-26T16:57:40Z")
Germany just lifted the ban on shipping weapons manufactured by them to Ukraine. That frees up a lot of the weapons stockpiled in Europe, apparently. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/280 "2022-02-26T17:00:06Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > This is not a terribly uncommon event for a fast moving motorized army. You’ll note they were not out of fuel _before the war started._ They got into Ukraine. I know what you are saying, but they had lots of fuel dumps and supplies in their staging and drop off locations, so saying they got into Ukraine isn’t really saying anything. Of course they got in…they started where the supplies were. It’s supplying them once they leave those and enter enemy territory that’s the challenge. As AK84 said, this isn’t unique to Russia…the US also has had this issue during large scale operations. I haven’t seen a lot of reports indicating that Ukrainians are targeting logistics, but I’d be surprised if they aren’t thinking about it…it’s more, can they than would they. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=15)