# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 142

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**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2821 "2022-03-20T14:59:08Z")

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> [@FlikTheBlue](#):
>
> A wise man once said the Russians love their children too.

To pick a nit …

**[Mr. Sumner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_(musician))** offered that “what might save us, me and you, is **if** the Russians love their children, too.”

And he “hope[d] the Russians love their children, too”

I don’t think he was so sure either.

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**Author:** ![Bookkeeper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bookkeeper/32/281_2.png) [@Bookkeeper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bookkeeper)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2822 "2022-03-20T15:17:18Z")

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I wonder if the Russian efforts to bring in Syrian and other mercenary fighters is because they expect them to be more willing to kill Ukrainians, especially civilians, seeing them as faceless enemies rather than cousins.

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**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2823 "2022-03-20T15:25:25Z")

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It’s a terror move. Just by proposing that they will bring in “scary jihadists”, the Russians hope to scare the Ukrainians into submitting.

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**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2824 "2022-03-20T15:31:59Z")

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> [@Bookkeeper](#):
>
> seeing them as faceless enemies rather than cousins.

> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#):
>
> It’s a terror move. Just by proposing that they will bring in “scary jihadists”, the Russians hope to scare the Ukrainians into submitting.

Which is just asinine, because the “faceless enemies” thing works both ways. Do you think we’d see a Ukrainian grandmother out there trying to publicly shame a bunch of Syrians into leaving Ukraine? Any Syrian who goes there has to know they’re going to be surrounded by people who hate them, and that they’ll stick out like a sore thumb amongst all the Ukrainians and Russians.

These guys are going to live with a target on their back all day, every day.

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**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2825 "2022-03-20T15:37:02Z")

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> [@Horatius](#):
>
> These guys are going to live with a target on their back all day, every day.

Which just makes them more trigger happy. And those veteran’s of the Syrian Civil War have had targets on their backs for a decade or more.

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**Author:** ![ASL\_v2.0](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asl_v2.0/32/3525_2.png) [@ASL\_v2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ASL_v2.0)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2826 "2022-03-20T16:07:17Z")

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> [@DesertDog](#):
>
> Well, to use **mjmartin** ’s analogy but making it 3 - 0 Giants in the _first_ quarter, maybe the high schoolers aren’t winning but they’re exceeding expectations going in. If it’s still 3 - 0 when the ~~negotiations~~ game’s done, the Giants will still be a laughing stock and the coach replaced.

Slight adjustment to analogy: the Giants have been insisting it’s just an “exhibition” game so of course they aren’t trying to utterly crush the poor high schoolers, it’s all in good fun. But then in addition to finishing the first quarter with a marginal 3-0 lead, videos have started showing up on TikTok showing pretty-damn-serious-looking 300-pound NFL linemen stomping high schools players’s faces into the ground, and wide receivers have gone to the sidelines and started punching out not only players on the high school team, but also proceeded into the stands and beaten down fans and even strangled to death one of the announcers just for knowing what the score is.

So in my book they won’t be a laughing stock, they are and will be straight up murderers.

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**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2827 "2022-03-20T16:12:14Z")

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> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#):
>
> It’s a terror move. Just by proposing that they will bring in “scary jihadists”, the Russians hope to scare the Ukrainians into submitting.

It’s ironic because of course these folks that are being actively recruited seem to be from the Syrian NDF paramilitary and explicitly aren’t jihadists as we tend to think of them. Rather they have their origins in Druze and Alawite militias that were themselves raised largely out of fear of genuine jihadists fighting the Syrian government. To the actual jihadists they are heretics.

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**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2828 "2022-03-20T16:47:12Z")

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I really don’t understand this. Putin has nothing to gain. NATO is not threatening to invade Russia. Ukraine WAS friendly to Russia. Not anymore.

What a colossal screw up, that had no reason to do this and thousands of lives lost. And now this has screwed up their economy. The rest of the world is going to be hurt too.

Surrounding yourself with ‘yes men’ advisors is a bad, bad idea.

I hope there is a coup in Russia, but fear who might be installed as the next dictator. I fear the same for the US. They tried and failed. The first time…

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**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2829 "2022-03-20T16:51:25Z")

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> [@enipla](#):
>
> Putin has nothing to gain.

Putin is afraid that if any former Soviet republic becomes a succesful democracy aligned with the West, it will give his Russian subjects rebellious ideas. Putin would rather be surrounded by ashes than democracy.

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**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2830 "2022-03-20T18:02:34Z")

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One comment I read that seems to make sense is that NATO getting involved is one of the few things that would galvanize Russian public support for the war. It would allow the war mongers to say “See? See? The evil NATO is at our doorstep just like we’ve been warning of!”

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**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2831 "2022-03-20T18:11:41Z")

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I was amused to see, when I clicked on the action notification, _Lumpy Russia invades Ukraine._

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**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2832 "2022-03-20T18:26:03Z")

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> [@GreenWyvern](#):
>
> > [@wolfpup](#):
> >
> > I’ve said it before, but I’m an advocate of a more aggressive response to this catastrophe. Putin has bluffed before about using nuclear weapons (even more explicitly than this time, in fact) and he’s likely bluffing again, and would at any rate not likely respond to something like the enforcement of a no-fly zone with a nuclear attack on the whole of the western world. No one is suggesting an outright attack on Russia itself. And, as unhinged as Putin might be, history has shown that it’s very unlikely that nuclear first-strike orders would be obeyed absent a direct attack on Russia. Direct confrontations between nuclear powers have happened before.
> 
> Highly likely, but can you bet the fate of the world on that?

This is what worries me. Does any nuclear power who rattles its sabres get to do whatever it wants, no matter how evil or horrific and regardless of the stranglehold on the rest of humanity, because we can’t know with 100% certainty that it’s not bluffing this time?

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**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2833 "2022-03-20T18:32:50Z")

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Technology has advanced a bunch in 40 years. Might be time to dust off the old SDI files.

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**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2834 "2022-03-20T18:40:36Z")

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> **[Russia’s war for Ukraine could be headed toward stalemate](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/20/russia-ukraine-military-offensive/)**
>
> Heavy Russian casualties and equipment losses, combined with limited progress on the ground, suggest the conflict could be headed toward a stalemate.

> The front lines have barely moved in more than a week. **Russians are being killed or injured at the rate of up to 1,000 a day** , according to Western intelligence estimates, and more, according to Ukrainian ones.

> Russia’s military campaign could soon become unsustainable, with troops unable to advance because they lack sufficient manpower, supplies and munitions, analysts and officials say.

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2835 "2022-03-20T18:46:56Z")

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Russia needs to consider what they’ll acquire if they eventually win.

We’ve already discussed a insurgency that will fight for many years.

There’s also the economic cost of a bombed out country. The economy will be ruined. Keeping the country running will cost a lot for years. There would have to be some rebuilding of infrastructure.

I doubt Russia would ever fully rebuild the cities.

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**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2836 "2022-03-20T18:52:43Z")

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> [@nelliebly](#):
>
> This is what worries me. Does any nuclear power who rattles its sabres get to do whatever it wants, no matter how evil or horrific and regardless of the stranglehold on the rest of humanity, because we can’t know with 100% certainty that it’s not bluffing this time?

@nelliebly, and this is the crux of the matter, right here. What if Russia threatens a nuclear response if the west continues to provide aid or doesn’t lift sanctions? Do we just sit back, relax, and let it continue?

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**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2837 "2022-03-20T19:12:47Z")

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> [@velomont](#):
>
> @nelliebly, and this is the crux of the matter, right here. What if Russia threatens a nuclear response if the west continues to provide aid or doesn’t lift sanctions? Do we just sit back, relax, and let it continue?

First use of nuclear weapons (except for perhaps the most limited use of tactical battlefield nukes and maybe not then) is tantamount to suicide. It’s only worth doing in response to a truly existential threat. Otherwise Russia could simply demand the unconditional surrender of the entire world. The whole debate over Ukraine and the balance of terror is what does Russia consider a truly existential threat? NATO participation in the war might be, but supplying Ukraine with tactical weapons and supplies isn’t.

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**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2838 "2022-03-20T19:37:40Z")

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> [@Lumpy](#):
>
> NATO participation in the war might be

But realistically, if NATO participated and confined its operations to Ukrainian battlespace, it would never be an existential threat to Russia, regardless of how Putin defines things. Indeed there is not a single thing in this scenario that is an existential threat to Russia.

This whole bloody thing is based on a bunch of his lies and regardless of what the west does or does not, Putin is obviously out to destroy Ukraine and its populace.

A fundamental truth is that nothing that Putin has done has demonstrated that he is honest, believable or predictable.

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**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2839 "2022-03-20T19:50:54Z")

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> [@velomont](#):
>
> A fundamental truth is that nothing that Putin has done has demonstrated that he is honest, believable or predictable.

Are you in Russia? Out here, we can plainly see what Vladdy is. But it is different for Russians, and not entirely because of his media lockdown. There are, yes, protesters, but so far they are in the minority. The hardship was done to Russia by the west, without any justification, and so Russians, who are already accustomed to adversity, will bite the bullet and close ranks around their president.

The west is the enemy, and if Vlad says that NATO’s actions in regard to Urkraine pose an existential threat to Mother Russia, her children will accept it and will stand fast behind the ~~Цар~~ president. It will take much more than this little problem to dislodge Putin.

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**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2022, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/2840 "2022-03-20T19:52:26Z")

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> [@silenus](#):
>
> Technology has advanced a bunch in 40 years. Might be time to dust off the old SDI files .

That program never went away – those files are current.

> **[Missile Defense Agency - U.S. Department of Defense](https://www.mda.mil/)**
>
> The Missile Defense Agency has fielded an initial capability to protect the U.S and our allies against limited ballistic missile attack.

> **[Missile Defense Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_Defense_Agency)**
>
> The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is a component of the United States government's Department of Defense responsible for developing a comprehensive defense against ballistic missiles. It had its origins in the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) which was established in 1983 by Ronald Reagan and which was headed by Lt. General James Alan Abrahamson. Under the Strategic Defense Initiative's Innovative Sciences and Technology Office headed by physicist and engineer Dr. James Ionson,\[10 Rapid changes ...

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