# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 151
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3001 "2022-03-22T13:04:44Z")
I think that’s part of it: for instance, imagine if Russia had invaded Japan, or more realistically, if North Korea had invaded South Korea. While Asians these days probably face around the same level of overt discrimination as people from the middle east, the countries of NATO would not stand idly by while those countries were being invaded. However, _being invaded_ is also part of the equation. I can’t think of an example in the past 40 years of such a _large_ conflict that would test the theory of cultural closeness that was also an example of one country invading another, and not something that could be characterized as a civil war. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3002 "2022-03-22T13:05:03Z")
I live three miles from a airforce base near Little Rock. Hosts the C 130 Combat Airlift. It would be on Russia’s strike list. The big question is the old decommissioned missile sites. I wouldn’t count on that getting updated on the old Soviet systems. Arkansas hosted Titan missiles at Damascus. There was a incident there in 1980. It’s decommissioned. It may still be on the old Soviet target list. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3003 "2022-03-22T13:10:26Z")
Reports that Russia’s only tank manufacturer has shut down for lack of parts. So no new tanks, currently losing all their current tanks, and are running out of tank crews as they get blown up. Now, I’m pretty sure I’ve seen a solution to Russia’s problem. They get a bunch of schoolgirls, put them in T-34s, and see how that goes. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3004 "2022-03-22T13:22:16Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Belarus borders on Poland and the Balkans You meant Baltics, and it’s two of three of those: Latvia and Lithuania. Balkans are south. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3005 "2022-03-22T13:27:24Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > Reports that Russia’s only tank manufacturer has shut down for lack of parts. So no new tanks, currently losing all their current tanks, This. I doubt the Kremlin cares how much cannon fodder gets killed in the invasion, but losing expensive planes and armor hits where it hurts. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3006 "2022-03-22T13:37:28Z")
I’m surprised the Russians still depend on Armour. US and Coalition forces smoked thousands of Russian tanks in Kuwait. They’re sitting ducks with modern infrared weapons. Tanks are still effective against lightly armed infantry or civilians. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3007 "2022-03-22T13:55:13Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > I’m surprised the Russians still depend on Armour. US and Coalition forces smoked thousands of Russian tanks in Kuwait. That was two things: operating armor without significant air defenses or at least contesting air superiority (so your opponent’s air force can treat your tanks as a target range), and “operating” your tanks as pillboxes instead of a mobile strike force or a combined-arms defense (ridiculously easy to flank and engage with low risk of effective resistance). It helped that our tanks could outrange Iraq’s and engage in visibility conditions that blinded theirs, at which point it becomes a sharpshooting contest with sitting ducks. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3008 "2022-03-22T14:13:23Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > With Ukraine the choice is between a western lifestyle vs. living in a totalitarian dictatorship. Yes, that was a very recent development with the toppling of Yanukovich and election of Zelenzky. Still, despite their democracy being less than a decade old, they had finally achieved it. It’s not that recent. Ukraine has been western-looking, and anti-autocracy for centuries. [From](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/19/opinion/ukraine-russia-putin-history.html) Ukrainian historian Yaroslav Hrytsak: > The chief distinction between Ukrainians and Russians lies not in language, religion or culture — here they are relatively close — but in political traditions. Simply put, a victorious democratic revolution is almost impossible in Russia, whereas a viable authoritarian government is almost impossible in Ukraine. > > The reason for this divergence is historical. Up until the end of World War I (and in the case of western Ukraine, the end of World War II), Ukrainian lands were under the strong political and cultural influence of Poland. This influence was not Polish per se; it was, rather, a Western influence. As the Harvard Byzantinist Ihor Sevcenko put it, in Ukraine the West was clad in Polish dress. > > Central to this influence were the ideas of constraining centralized power, an organized civil society and some freedom of assembly. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3009 "2022-03-22T14:26:10Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > > [@Broomstick](#): > > > > The people being slaughtered look like us. By “us” I mean the majority of the people in Europe and the US. > > > > > A cynical position I know, and not one I personally agree with, but I think it’s the reality. > > While I agree with this, I also believe that in addition, they live like us and live near us. I’m afraid this is a large part of it. I do think there’s another component, besides the ones already mentioned: in the regional wars, it usually doesn’t seem likely that if one side has even a relatively easy win they’ll then proceed to take the next country over, and the one after that, and the one after that . . . some of the religious groups might like to, but they don’t seem likely to be able to pull it off. The disadvantage of building Russia up as Still A Great World Power is that Russia gets seen as capable of pulling that off; especially given their history. Of course, that explanation kind of falls down if one considers China; which also has a distinct tendency to take “all the land that joins mine.” But I still think that’s part of it. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3010 "2022-03-22T14:57:56Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > Maybe this is a minority opinion - and I have no credentials to back it up beyond a layman’s understanding of the conflict and my own intuition - but I can’t still can’t see how sending military aid to Ukraine is going to do anything but prolong the conflict and push Russia closer and closer to escalating with more powerful bombings and eventually tactical nuclear weapons. If there was some sort of _guarantee_ that a diplomatic solution would leave Russia content with its territorial ambitions & security concerns, and everyone else in the world can go on their merry way, sure. Sucks to be Ukraine, but oh well, better than getting nuked, I guess. But Russia has grievances and security concerns _everywhere_. Once Putin gets a big popularity boost, and is riding high on the conquest resulting from just _implying_ the threat of tactical nuclear strikes, and the entire world backs down, what then? What happens after the Russian economy has recovered (better ease of those sanctions too, don’t want to upset Russia further after all…) ? Is Putin still going to be content with the paper of the diplomatic solution, or is he just going to use the opportunity to rearm for the next big bite? When does it end? Or is the better approach to just stand firm, continue to bleed Russia out, denying Putin an easy victory, but ensuring that there are always still offramps available? ---
**Author:** ![Morgyn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morgyn/32/3041_2.png) [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3011 "2022-03-22T15:02:00Z")
Russia and Japan have technically been at war with each other for 80+ years? 🤯 🤯 ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3012 "2022-03-22T15:08:34Z")
> [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > is he just going to use the opportunity to rearm for the next big bite? When does it end? Georgia and Moldova next, certainly. Azerjaijan has only been independent since 1991 - next on the list for officially absorbing into Russia. Probably Finland next, on some pretext. Sweden is next door, and if they make noise about joining NATO - then Putin will see that as a threat. Maybe do a bit of testing with disputed islands north of Japan. Finally, the Baltic states. They are NATO, but by then… Putin won’t care. This was probably his master plan. We need to stop this in Ukraine now. ---
**Author:** ![Morgyn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morgyn/32/3041_2.png) [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3013 "2022-03-22T15:09:01Z")
I live within 40 miles of Philadelphia and a mile from an active nuclear power plant. I expect both to be on first strike lists and it’s just as well. I’d never survive in a post-WWIII world. If it’s going to happen, I’d just as soon it were quick enough that I’m unlikely to know it’s happening before it’s too late to know it’s happening. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3014 "2022-03-22T15:36:13Z")
Don’t know if it was posted above already, but Eliot Cohen had run an article in _The Atlantic_ in which he laid out numerous stats, figures that indicate Ukraine is most definitely winning the war, but that most Western analysts can’t or won’t say so out loud because they’d rather err on the side of claiming Russia will win and being proven wrong, than claiming Ukraine will win and be proven wrong (more egg on their face in the latter scenario.) ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3015 "2022-03-22T15:50:05Z")
I’d love to see that, because, frankly, I’m not seeing that in what I’ve been looking at or reading. Still seems to me that Russia is grinding, slowly, forward. And it seems like, increasingly, they are willing to disregard civilian casualties in doing so. To me, it looks like Kyiv has, maybe, 2 weeks before it’s in the same level of combat (and destruction) currently happening in Mariupol. Mariupol itself looks to fall within a week or so, tops, and that will free up a bunch of troops and resources, as well as open things up even more as a conduit between Crimea, the break-away provinces, and Russia. Kyiv itself is pretty static so far, but the Russians have stepped up bombing operations. The force from Belarus seems pretty well set, logistically, with consolidated positions and supplies as well as FOBs and artillery firing positions to range on Kyiv. To me, this looks like a stalemate, with Russia slowly grinding through its objectives while Ukraine continues to put up stiff resistance. Neither side is winning, neither is losing…yet. I think it will come down to something like WWI, where the side the collapses last…‘wins’…for some definition of that term. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3016 "2022-03-22T15:53:45Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I’d love to see that, because, frankly, I’m not seeing that in what I’ve been looking at or reading. Still seems to me that Russia is grinding, slowly, forward. And it seems like, increasingly, they are willing to disregard civilian casualties in doing so. They’ve barely moved in weeks and their materiel and personnel loses are not sustainable. That’s what losing looks like, they are not making any significant forward progress and they can’t keep up even this middling pace for long. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3017 "2022-03-22T15:54:40Z")
It looks like I need to dust off my copy of _[Twilight 2000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twilight%3A_2000)_ and run a few simulations stateside to see the best course of action to take in case WWIII breaks out. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3018 "2022-03-22T15:54:49Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Mariupol itself looks to fall within a week or so, tops, and that will free up a bunch of troops and resources I don’t know much, but from reading this thread and other places - how many resources will be freed up (assuming they actually manage to capture it)? They’ll need a force to occupy it, and in the meantime are using up people/bombs/shells/bullets/tanks that they can’t easily (or at all?) replace. Ukraine is being resupplied from everywhere, so all they need to worry about is actual bodies. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3019 "2022-03-22T15:59:19Z")
Did you read the [article](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/) in the Atlantic posted above? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2022, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3020 "2022-03-22T16:01:20Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > They get a bunch of schoolgirls, put them in T-34s, and see how that goes. [Monty Python: Reenactment of the Battle of Pearl Harbor - video Dailymotion](https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2wcfv9) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=150) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=152)