# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 182
### Author:  [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3621 "2022-03-29T18:01:10Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> Ukraine has no choice. They have to give up some territory for peace. It’s a terrible reality.
No, they don’t. There are other compromises. Agree to not join NATO. Accept that Russia owns Crimea.
---
### Author:  [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3622 "2022-03-29T18:01:26Z")
> [@EllisDee](#):
>
> For the past month, I keep thinking of that Seinfeld scene over and over again, when Kramer and Newman are playing Risk on the subway and talking about invading Ukraine because Ukraine is weak. Then a Ukrainian guy in the subway turns around, smashes the board with his fist and yells “Ukraine is strong!”
I just remembered this scene and I am completely shocked we haven’t seen it memed into the ground over the last month.
---
### Author:  [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3623 "2022-03-29T18:03:40Z")
Reading the last 30 or so posts, this thread has taken a pretty positive note, assuming that Russia is about to be defeated.
I certainly hope it’s true.
But I have a question-- about tactics, and the weather:
Could all this feel-good news about negotiations just be a delaying tactic?
The official statement by the US ,(quoted in post 3606 above) says that they have not yet seen any real change in deployment of the Russian army.
So I started wondering what’s really going on.
Specifically–what’s up with the mud season?
Wiki says that the mud lasts for 4 to 6 weeks every spring, which means that in another week or two it may be possible for all those Russian tanks to leave the asphalt and move in any direction they want. Could the Russians be planning a larger assault,but are just waiting for the ground to dry out?
Despite losing about 200 tanks, they still have a thousand vehicles (a couple hundred of tanks, and a couple hundred heavy artillery that are functioning, don’t they? They could flatten parts of major cities with artillery shells.
The press is full of reports emphasizing Russian weaknesses, and making it look like they will lose the war.\*
But as the mud dries, could they re-group and attack again?
\*(For example, those surprising reports of frostbite. I couldn’t find any firm numbers. It looks like one captured Russian soldier said that he had seen some of his buddies with frostbite, and somebody intercepted a single radio message from a company commander.)
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### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3624 "2022-03-29T18:19:36Z")
> [@EllisDee](#):
>
> For the past month, I keep thinking of that Seinfeld scene over and over again, when Kramer and Newman are playing Risk on the subway and talking about invading Ukraine because Ukraine is weak. Then a Ukrainian guy in the subway turns around, smashes the board with his fist and yells “Ukraine is strong!”
I never watched Seinfeld. I’ve seen bits of it of course, but never actually watched it. Anyway, here’s the clip:
[![]( " - YouTube") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zJouXZh8kQ)
> [@DigitalC](#):
>
> I just remembered this scene and I am completely shocked we haven’t seen it memed into the ground over the last month.
This is the first time I’ve seen it (and I think they should have left in the first second or so), but a video meme exists:
[ ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnyZOSxsq2Y)
---
### Author:  [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3625 "2022-03-29T18:30:30Z")
> [@chappachula](#):
>
> Wiki says that the mud lasts for 4 to 6 weeks every spring, which means that in another week or two it may be possible for all those Russian tanks to leave the asphalt and move in any direction they want.
Without fuel they aren’t going anywhere, mud or no mud, and I’ve seen no evidence the Russian army’s gotten their logistical ducks in a row.
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### Author:  [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3626 "2022-03-29T18:41:09Z")
I confess I thought the same thing as well. One of the (many) things that have put the screws to all the Russian armor is that they’ve been more or less restricted to movement on the roads. That’s not how armor is used effectively. They should ideally fan out, quickly encircle, and attack from multiple directions. I guess part of me still wants to think of Russia as the USSR. You know, a formidable adversary. With so much firepower available, it just seems wrong to underestimate that potential.
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### Author:  [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3627 "2022-03-29T18:41:47Z")
I’m not willing to give one square foot of American soil to the seditionists who want to start Confederacy 2.0…why the hell should we give any to this bargain-basement Stalin who, based upon the evidence of the last few weeks, couldn’t organize a panty raid at Vassar??
Sorry, but I’m in the “slap Putin in the face with a haddock until he apologizes” camp. Clear any and all Russians out of Donbas, et.al., give Crimea back to Ukraine, slink off back to Gorky Park, and _maybe_ we’ll drop some of the sanctions.
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### Author:  [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3628 "2022-03-29T18:44:38Z")
Russia is not going to lose the war. They’ve lost the war. Now it is simply a case of can they cause enough damage to force Ukraine into conceding some territory (I think likely not except for the Crimea question, which depends much on the local populace). Logistics and morale win wars. Russia has neither, and that’s not going to change just because the mud goes away. Also, Russia has no additional assets that it can realistically move into the fight. Right now the average Russian trooper does not believe they can win. They think that sooner or later there’s a bullet with their name on it. Managing troops is a tricky thing. Soldiers can be very good at “following orders” without following orders. Doing things in a way that will not get them arrested or shot, but does not really fulfil the objective. You can bring a soldier to the battlefield but it can be hard to get them to fight if they’re convinced they’re going to die. Now, you can put them in a situation where they will die if they don’t fight. And a lot of people will simply break, and do nothing until they do die (maybe some panic fire). But if you want to win battles, if you want to move towards your objectives, you absolutely must have soldiers that are going to get it done because they believe it can be done. The Russian troops are almost certainly scared of the Ukrainian military and their civilian resistance. A javelin behind every tree. A drone over every hill. And so on.
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### Author:  [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3629 "2022-03-29T18:48:25Z")
> [@Cardigan](#):
>
> With so much firepower available, it just seems wrong to underestimate that potential.
At this point we’re way past “estimating” anything. We are directly observing the reality on the ground.
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### Author:  [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3630 "2022-03-29T18:54:21Z")
> [@EllisDee](#):
>
> For the past month, I keep thinking of that Seinfeld scene over and over again, when Kramer and Newman are playing Risk on the subway and talking about invading Ukraine because Ukraine is weak.
Honestly, I’ve always just been amazed that it was a standard Risk board. How does one even get that at all useable on the subway? (Yes, I know it’s both fiction and comedy).
And to be fair, Ukraine is hard to hold. There’s something like five adjacent territories. One or two opponents can definitely take it from you unless you’re really willing to put a lot of troops in it.
Anyway, put me in the take of “Ukraine should tell Russia they get nothing, but if concessions must be made Crimea is probably more acceptable than the Donbas.”
---
### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3631 "2022-03-29T18:55:27Z")
It’s easy to get excited by peace negotiations. I hope they are successful.
It’s still wise to remember Putin is calling the shots.
Guardian Live blog
> [@](#):
>
> ## Russia using peace talks as ‘tactical exercise in playing for time’, western official says
>
> **Russia has not yet demonstrated it is serious about negotiations with [Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), a western official speaking on condition of anonymity said.**
>
> Reuters is reporting the official as saying:
>
> > In terms of the negotiations, nothing that we have seen so far has demonstrated to us that President Putin and his colleagues are particularly serious about that, it’s more of a tactical exercise in playing for time.
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### Author:  [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3632 "2022-03-29T18:56:13Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#):
>
> But if you want to win battles, if you want to move towards your objectives, you absolutely must have soldiers that are going to get it done because they believe it can be done.
It also helps immensely to have a force the believes it is _worth_ doing. The Ukrainians are fighting for a cause, the Russians not so much.
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### Author:  [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3633 "2022-03-29T19:15:45Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> It’s easy to get excited by peace negotiations. I hope they are successful.
> It’s still wise to remember Putin is calling the shots.
>
> Guardian Live blog
>
> > [@](#):
> >
> > ## Russia using peace talks as ‘tactical exercise in playing for time’, western official says
> >
> > > **Russia has not yet demonstrated it is serious about negotiations with [Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), a western official speaking on condition of anonymity said.**
> > >
> > > Reuters is reporting the official as saying:
> > >
> > > > In terms of the negotiations, nothing that we have seen so far has demonstrated to us that President Putin and his colleagues are particularly serious about that, it’s more of a tactical exercise in playing for time.
How does playing for time help Russia? I thought that would help Ukraine more.
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### Author:  [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3634 "2022-03-29T19:17:14Z")
Could you please work on sounding less like a Putin supporter in these threads. It is disturbing to say the least.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3635 "2022-03-29T19:39:59Z")
Another setback for Russia.
[ ](https://i.postimg.cc/Y2NPPcm4/image.png)
There are [reports](https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1508886176043839492?s=20&t=XFueUSQnXzIFBRdXLaSwiQ) that a major munitions dump – over the border inside Russia – was hit by a Ukrainian missile.
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### Author:  [@Sauron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sauron)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3636 "2022-03-29T19:40:32Z")
> Wiki says that the mud lasts for 4 to 6 weeks every spring, which means that in another week or two it may be possible for all those Russian tanks to leave the asphalt and move in any direction they want.
I’ve wondered that myself, but we keep hearing about cold temperatures in eastern Ukraine. I wonder if the _rasputitsa_ is later than usual this year. If that’s the case, that’s another logistical nightmare for Russia.
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### Author:  [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3637 "2022-03-29T19:55:30Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> Ukraine has no choice. They have to give up some territory for peace. It’s a terrible reality.
> [@DrDeth](#):
>
> No, they don’t. There are other compromises. Agree to not join NATO. Accept that Russia owns Crimea.
I’m confused : Is accepting that Russia owns Crimea _not_ giving up territory?
---
### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3638 "2022-03-29T19:59:10Z")
Disturbing and unfortunate if true:
> **[Does video show Russian prisoners being shot?](https://www.bbc.com/news/60907259)**
>
> Ukrainian authorities investigate a video apparently showing Russian PoWs being shot in the legs.
[Prince Feisal](https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000027/?ref_=tt_ch): With Major Lawrence, mercy is a passion. With me, it is merely good manners.
Shooting prisoners is bad manners.
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3639 "2022-03-29T20:14:22Z")
The problem is that the Russian state is so dishonest and deceitful that one can literally believe nothing that comes from them. Creating false flag war crime videos is absolutely 100% something that they would do.
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### Author:  [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3640 "2022-03-29T20:18:31Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#):
>
> Another setback for Russia.
>
> [Image — Postimages](https://i.postimg.cc/Y2NPPcm4/image.png)
>
> There are [reports](https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1508886176043839492?s=20&t=XFueUSQnXzIFBRdXLaSwiQ) that a major munitions dump – over the border inside Russia – was hit by a Ukrainian missile.
I haven’t seen prior reports of targets hit in Russia. Is this a first or have I missed others?
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