# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 183
### Author:  [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3641 "2022-03-29T20:19:11Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#):
>
> Disturbing and unfortunate if true
Agreed - but not at all surprising. People suck when stressed and war is about as stressing as you can get. Once you make the leap into ‘othering’ the opposite side, just about any inhumanity becomes justified. There are probably few if any large-scale military actions that don’t come complete with atrocities and generally on every side. We should be prepared for verified stories of massacres and rape. Including from the nominal “good guys.”
Just another reason war is something to be avoided. It brings out the inner shittiness of humanity.
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### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3642 "2022-03-29T20:27:55Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#):
>
> The problem is that the Russian state is so dishonest and deceitful that one can literally believe nothing that comes from them. Creating false flag war crime videos is absolutely 100% something that they would do.
True. Unfortunately, the article says their investigation cannot conclusively prove whether it is real or faked.
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### Author:  [@Seanette](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seanette)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3643 "2022-03-29T20:35:41Z")
And in other maybe-related news, four EU countries are kicking out Russian diplomats as potential national security threats to the host countries. Earlier in the month, another five countries did the same. How worried should we be about Czar Dobby switching to going after another country?
> **[Ukraine war: Dozens of Russian diplomats expelled by four EU nations](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60920588)**
>
> More than 40 diplomats are told to leave by Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland and the Czech Republic.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3644 "2022-03-29T20:44:10Z")
> [@Ruken](#):
>
> I haven’t seen prior reports of targets hit in Russia. Is this a first or have I missed others?
I believe there was one other - the [Millerovo air base](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millerovo_air_base_attack) was attacked by Ukraine Feb 25
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### Author:  [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3645 "2022-03-29T20:53:25Z")
> [@Seanette](#):
>
> How worried should we be about Czar Dobby switching to going after another country?
Not very, considering how badly he’s downgraded his military power just with this bungled invasion of Ukraine.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3646 "2022-03-29T21:26:47Z")
Questions:
If Russia is indeed going to move combat power from the north to their offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east, as has been predicted…
How challenging is this going to be for them (logistically speaking) given their apparent lack of supplies like fuel? We’re talking a trip of some 700-800 km? This cannot be a trivial task - in the past, I would not have questioned it, but now, I can’t see the Russian logistics being able to do this efficiently. It may take them weeks. Especially with damaged/broken equipment to deal with.
How much of a target will these units be while on the move, particularly to Ukraine counter strikes with anti-tank weapons and/or drone attacks? Will they have to travel a lot in a line on roads due to inability to move on muddy fields? It would seem that bottlenecks could be created by blowing up a few of the units in front and/or cratering the roads.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3647 "2022-03-29T22:21:08Z")
Another question:
Back in February, we were hearing rumblings about Belarus joining Russia in the Ukraine invasion.
This has been repeated a few times since.
We’ve also heard rumors of the Belarus military not being all that keen on the idea (as in "fuck no, we will not do it).
Where do things stand now? Is Belarus content to just remain a staging ground for Russia’s defeat? Is there any concern in that countries leadership that they’re making enemies of Putin for not sending in troops and equipment, but also making enemies of the west with significant sanctions against them?
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### Author:  [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3648 "2022-03-29T22:23:26Z")
For clarity on my previous posts. While I am speaking in certainties, there is nothing certain in war. Of course, Russia could turn things around if something unusual were to happen. When I say “Russia has lost the war”, what I mean is that unless something unusual happens. I’m talking about given probable events. If tomorrow they discover that Zelensky kicks puppies, and people start supplying Russia instead, then all previous predictions are off. So anyplace I say something is certain, you can replace it with 99% if it makes you feel better. 🙂
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### Author:  [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3649 "2022-03-29T22:27:55Z")
From everything I’ve read, it seemed that there was a significant fear of mutiny among the ranks. Probably because a sizeable contingent of Belarusian soldiers defected. Lukashenko’s grip on the country is tenuous and entirely reliant on the military to suppress the revolt. A disaster in Ukraine would spell his end. However, he still is in control so I don’t think there is any resistance to Russian troops on the soil. I would say his leadership is in jeopardy though. The people don’t want him and this has revealed a crack in the military. I’m sure Putin isn’t happy about it. He probably sends him a daily reminder that he has nukes. 😜
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3650 "2022-03-29T22:40:10Z")
NATO should offer to drop sanctions on Belarus if they’ll support Ukraine right now. Join the winning side.
It would not work at all, but imagine how it would F$%& with Putin’s head.
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### Author:  [@Hypno-Toad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hypno-Toad)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3651 "2022-03-29T23:22:30Z")
I wonder how Lukashenko really feels down deep about watching Big Brother get smacked around by Ukraine. A little relief, maybe? A bit of Schadenfreude?
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### Author:  [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3652 "2022-03-29T23:37:58Z")
> [@Hypno-Toad](#):
>
> I wonder how Lukashenko really feels down deep about watching Big Brother get smacked around by Ukraine. A little relief, maybe? A bit of Schadenfreude
My guess is he’s thinking something like this. “Why didn’t Putin leave well enough alone? Everything was fine and he went and had to rock the boat. But since he’s the boss, I have to at least pretend to support him.”
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### Author:  [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3653 "2022-03-29T23:38:39Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#):
>
> The problem Putin has with his military is that he has been constantly splitting it up and decentralising it in order to prevent the possibility of a military-backed coup. It’s an organisational mess, configured purely to protect one man and his neurosis.
That’s what dictators typically do. They tend to have a (sometimes-justified) paranoia about being deposed. Many times, large chunks of their military are closer to a glorified internal security force than an outward-facing force.
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### Author:  [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)
#### Post date: [March 29, 2022, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3654 "2022-03-29T23:42:57Z")
> [@Seanette](#):
>
> Didn’t Hitler do something similar with his leadership, keeping them too busy infighting and jockeying for political gain to actually get anything useful done?
Hitler’s situation was different – he considered himself to be a genuine military genius. During the early stages of the war, he often overruled his generals, and (in the short term) was proved correct. Later on, of course, was a different story.
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### Author:  [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3655 "2022-03-30T00:07:27Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#):
>
> I’m curious-how many Dopers thought it would turn out the way it has when the invasion started? Or did you sadly assume (as I would have) Russia would just steamroll Ukraine until someone stepped in to stop them?
I believe I am on record here saying that I thought Russia didn’t have the personnel on hand to take all of Ukraine. The best they could hope for was a land bridge to Crimea, and even that was pretty doubtful.
Of course, I was just number crunching from received wisdom. I know absolutely bupkis about killing another person, in practice. Another army is right out. It appears their assumptions of the people I trusted were right in this case.
Did I think it would come to a point where the Ukrainians could use “If you leave, we’ll stop killing you” as their starting negotiating point one month into the war? No. I thought they’d stop the Russians at the Dnieper two months in or so, and the push back would be slow. Shows what I know.
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### Author:  [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3656 "2022-03-30T00:28:52Z")
Questions are now being asked in Washington about how US intelligence could have so overestimated the capabilities of the Russian military. What they did manage to get right was predicting that Putin would invade.
I myself was wrong on both counts. I thought the threat of invasion was mostly a bluff, because I didn’t think Putin was that stupid and reckless. But when they did invade, I feared Ukraine would be overrun pretty quickly. But I was wrong, and so were US intelligence agencies. A little snippet from a CNN article:
> Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said that US intelligence assessments before the invasion were based on a number of factors, including that the Ukrainians were “not as ready as I thought they should be.”
>
> “Therefore, I questioned their will to fight. That was a bad assessment on my part, because they have fought bravely and honorably and are doing the right thing,” he said.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3658 "2022-03-30T01:59:19Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#):
>
> the Russian Ministry of Finance has not allocated funds for it.
> [@GreenWyvern](#):
>
> What serious government agency doesn’t keep backups?
Well, it’s difficult to allocate funds when your own apparatchiks have stolen it first.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3659 "2022-03-30T02:04:03Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> That could last for several more months. Maybe even a year?
>
> Ukraine has no choice. They have to give up some territory for peace. It’s a terrible reality.
If Ukraine gives up territory, why would Russia stop using the missile tactic that is working?
“But, but, they signed a treaty!”
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### Author:  [@lum\_s\_husband](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lum_s_husband)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3660 "2022-03-30T02:06:07Z")
Contracts are sacred, Bruh.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3661 "2022-03-30T02:12:12Z")
> [@DrDeth](#):
>
> Accept that Russia owns Crimea.
That is giving up territory for peace.
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