# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 184
### Author:  [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3662 "2022-03-30T02:17:07Z")
New assessment from the ISW:
> **[Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-29)**
>
> The Russians have not yet abandoned their attacks on Kyiv, claims by Russian Defense Ministry officials notwithstanding. Russian forces continued fighting to hold their forwardmost positions on the eastern and western Kyiv outskirts even as badly...
> **Key Takeaways**
> - **We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold their current front-line trace near the city, however, remaining dug into positions to the east, northwest, and west. Russian forces withdrawing from the area around Kyiv appear to be moving north from behind the front line to positions in Belarus.**
> - **Russia is directing some reserves to the effort to connect gains southeast of Kharkiv and Izyum with its front line in Luhansk.**
> - **Ukrainian forces continue to defend in likely isolated pockets in Mariupol. The city will likely fall to the Russians within days.**
> - **A Russian offensive operation to take the rest of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast would be a significant undertaking. It remains unclear if Russia can harvest enough combat power from Mariupol after securing the city or divert reinforcements from elsewhere on a large enough scale to complete it.**
Here’s also a good article comparing what happened in Grozny and Aleppo to what’s happening in Ukraine now. I think it’s incredibly fortunate that they haven’t been able to take Kyiv:
> **[What the horrors of Syria and Chechnya can tell us about Russia’s tactics in...](https://themessenger.com/grid/terror-destruction-and-chaos-russian-tactics-in-ukraine-have-a-history)**
>
> Abdulkafi Alhamdo remembers the day he asked his wife to take their infant daughter out of Aleppo. “I told her to take my daughter through the \[humanitarian\] corridor just to stay alive,” Alhamdo said. “I thought this was the last time I would see...
> Dan Mogulof, who covered the first Chechen War as a producer for CBS News, recalled in an interview with Grid that the Russian advance was characterized by a mix of “incompetence and brutality.” He said that “in the initial conflicts in Chechnya between the Russian military and Chechen rebels, the Russian military was so decimated that they pulled back to the outskirts of the city and began indiscriminate shelling. Is this starting to sound familiar?”
> It wasn’t just civilians who suffered in the assault. “One of the things I saw that, to this day boggles the mind, was that the Russian army left its wounded and dead on the field,” Mogulof said. “I’m a military veteran. One of the most profound and sacred promises a military makes to its soldiers is that they won’t be left behind. That was being violated, which says a lot about the army and national leadership’s attitude toward these young men.”
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3663 "2022-03-30T02:24:12Z")
> [@Seanette](#):
>
> Didn’t Hitler do something similar with his leadership, keeping them too busy infighting and jockeying for political gain to actually get anything useful done?
That’s what Speer said, in **Inside the Third Reich** (spoiler: must be read with huge spoon of salt handy). He wasn’t speaking so much of the military as the party leadership. Hitler gave every leader an area of operations, but with overlap, so they were constantly fighting, and having to come to him for clarification and direction. That meant that Hitler was in control, at the cost of tremendous inefficiencies. [checks forum title] It’s a management style that was in the news in the US a while ago.
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### Author:  [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3664 "2022-03-30T02:28:28Z")
I have to say It’s interesting that Ukraine has now sent missiles INTO Russia.
If Russia can’t maintain and supply a small ground force then it’s just a matter of time before they run out of missiles to shoot into cities. Imagine a Ukrainian force driving deep into Russia because there is no hardware available to stop them.
OK, a fantasy, but so was the current situation.
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3665 "2022-03-30T02:30:00Z")
They [leave behind the living too](https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/1508865113582981121).
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### Author:  [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3667 "2022-03-30T02:34:57Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#):
>
> They [leave behind the living too](https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/1508865113582981121).
Which is yet another reason how you end up with this (also from the ISW report from today):
> The [Ukranian] General Staff also reported that Russian efforts to generate reinforcements from the Pacific Fleet could not produce even a single battalion because of refusals to fight. We have no independent confirmation of these assessments, but Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu‘s March 29 statement that Russia would not deploy conscripts to “hot spots” corroborates assessments of Russian soldiers’ unwillingness to enter the war.
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### Author:  [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3668 "2022-03-30T02:59:46Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> If Russia is indeed going to move combat power from the north to their offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east, as has been predicted…
>
> How challenging is this going to be for them (logistically speaking) given their apparent lack of supplies like fuel?
Assuming that Russia will pull their northern troops out of the line to make the trip to the Donetsk/Luhansk region, they will probably be able to make most of the movement by rail through Russian territory. Russia has a pretty good rail network, and most of their units moved to the front by rail, so they have recent experience doing so. It will save some wear and tear on their tracked and wheeled vehicles as well.
After a little googling, I’m seeing statistics on the order of 2,000-3,000 vehicles per US armored brigade - which seems a bit high, but not unreasonable. For a Russian division with similar vehicle numbers, they would take perhaps 20-25 hundred-car trains to move from point to point.
If they can embark them at Homyel in Belarus, and move them via Bryansk-Kursk-Voronezh toward the front near Rostov, transit time probably wouldn’t be more than 2 days, but the loading and unloading would take more time. There’s an article describing loading up a train in Ft. Carson, CO for a deployment, and they’re pretty proud about getting two trains loaded and on their way in a single day, and that’s with the permanent facilities of a military base helping. Unloading at the other end probably similar. Call it two weeks to make the complete movement, including maintenance happening at each end for the vehicles being sent.
I’m guessing Ukraine probably won’t be able to send units that deep (maybe 50km, or thereabouts?) into Russian territory to interdict the rail lines. Though, if you had really good intel on when a full train was about to cross over a long bridge, that might be a great target for an exceptionally risky air mission…
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3669 "2022-03-30T03:01:24Z")
> [@romansperson](#):
>
> Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu‘s March 29 statement
I thought he was missing with a “heart attack”. He got better?
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3670 "2022-03-30T03:20:23Z")
He’s believed to be hunkering in a secret bunker in the Urals:
> **[Putin and his high command 'are already hunkering in secret bunkers'](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10663553/Putin-high-command-hunkering-secret-nuclear-bunkers.html)**
>
> The use of the high security bunkers - if confirmed - is alarming as it suggests Vladimir Putin may be preparing to deploy nuclear weapons, a move that would lead to inevitable reprisal.
[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/zZct-itCwPE/maxresdefault.jpg "Dr. Strangelove - Peter Sellers - "An astonishingly good idea"") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZct-itCwPE)
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3671 "2022-03-30T03:34:04Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> If Ukraine gives up territory, why would Russia stop using the missile tactic that is working?
>
> “But, but, they signed a treaty!”
Russia can’t live under sanctions forever. Ukraine gets blasted with missiles and Russia sanctions. Who cracks first?
Seems like a treaty will eventually be signed. I would hope sanctions won’t be lifted until there’s a full ceasefire.
Russia may eventually try to take Ukraine again. They are permanently sleeping next to a Grizzly bear.
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### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3672 "2022-03-30T03:51:35Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#):
>
> Russia is not going to lose the war. They’ve lost the war.
Man, you guys are awfully positive based on limited evidence. We are a MONTH in.
History is absolutely full of examples of large powers that for the first part of the war looked like bumbling idiots who couldn’t fight off a paper bag, and that ended up winning.
I am concerned Putin is willing to sacrifice everything to keep fighting.
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3673 "2022-03-30T03:57:35Z")
The Ukrainian military is also skeptical abot Russian plans.
I suspect troops leaving Kiev are going to the Donbas region. Putin isn’t relenting.
Guardian live blog
> [@](#):
>
> ## Russian withdrawal from north is merely a rotation of troops with aim to ‘mislead’, Ukraine military says
>
> Ukraine’s general staff of the armed forces has just released its latest intelligence [report](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua) as of 10pm local time, claiming Russian troops continue to withdraw from the territory of Kyiv and Chernihiv in the Ukraine’s north but the movement is merely “a rotation of individual units” and aims to “mislead the military leadership” of Ukraine.
>
> The report reads:
>
> > According to some indications, the Russian enemy is regrouping units to focus its main efforts on the east.
>
> > At the same time, **the so-called ‘withdrawal of troops’ is probably a rotation of individual units and aims to mislead the military leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine** and create a misconception about the occupiers’ refusal to plan to encircle the city of Kyiv.”
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3674 "2022-03-30T04:24:21Z")
> [@SunUp](#):
>
> Though, if you had really good intel on when a full train was about to cross over a long bridge, that might be a great target for an exceptionally risky air mission…
Good intel from the US for sure. How many OTR-21 Tochka missiles does Ukraine have, and would a 70 km range be sufficient?
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3675 "2022-03-30T04:44:47Z")
> [@RickJay](#):
>
> History is absolutely full of examples of large powers that for the first part of the war looked like bumbling idiots who couldn’t fight off a paper bag, and that ended up winning.
Can you give us some examples? Aggressor countries, that is, not attacked countries.
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### Author:  [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3676 "2022-03-30T04:52:30Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#):
>
> Can you give us some examples? Aggressor countries, that is, not attacked countries.
[Austria-Hungary and Serbia in WW I?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_campaign)
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3677 "2022-03-30T05:02:36Z")
A very different situation. The first campaign by Austria-Hungary was defeated. The second campaign, a year later, consisted mainly of Bulgarian and German troops, under German command, with the Austro-Hungarians making up only about a third of the forces.
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### Author:  [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3678 "2022-03-30T05:03:29Z")
That article says Serbia (the defender) won, so I don’t think that’s an example of an aggressor who stumbles out of the gate but then gets it together and kicks ass.
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### Author:  [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3679 "2022-03-30T05:13:32Z")
Ukraine doesn’t have Crimea. It has been occupied by Russia since 2014. Ukraine has a moral claim to it, that is about all.
> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> Questions are now being asked in Washington about how US intelligence could have so overestimated the capabilities of the Russian military. What they did manage to get right was predicting that Putin would invade.
Well, see, we can count their tanks, guns planes, and men, and know how technologically advanced they are. What is hard to spy out is just how corrupt Russia was, and how little will to invade the Russian soldier has.
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> That is giving up territory for peace.
If Communist China gave up it’s claim to Taiwan, would that be giving up territory? No, since they lost Taiwan a long time ago. Russia has had Crimea since 2014, and Ukraine has zero chance of getting it back. Since the Ukraine doesn’t have Crimea, it is only giving up a moral claim. The land the Russia wants is still in Ukraine, even though it there are Russian troops in much of it. Fighting continues there.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3680 "2022-03-30T05:29:38Z")
> [@DrDeth](#):
>
> Russia has had Crimea since 2014
Well, Russia had Crimea since 1783. Ukraine had it from 1991-2014. Probably the majority of the population is still pro-Russian, even now. Russia has also made major infrastructure investments in Crimea since 2014. So it’s a very different situation from Donbas.
I don’t think there’s any real benefit to Ukraine in trying to get back Crimea. Ukraine is saying in current peace talks that they are willing to leave it under Russian control and look at the situation again in 15 years.
[https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/ukraine-proposes-to-resolve-crimea-issue-through-talks-with-russia-within-15-years-articleshow.html](https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/ukraine-proposes-to-resolve-crimea-issue-through-talks-with-russia-within-15-years-articleshow.html)
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3681 "2022-03-30T07:06:11Z")
British Defence Intelligence update:
[ ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPEsROfWYAMwgov?format=jpg&name=small)
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### Author:  [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3682 "2022-03-30T09:58:46Z")
> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> Questions are now being asked in Washington about how US intelligence could have so overestimated the capabilities of the Russian military.
I dunno - the same way the _Russians_ overestimated the capabilities of the Russian military? If the US information was based on human intel and those humans were themselves misinformed well, there ya go.
Also, satellite photos might tell you how many tanks and trucks someone has, but not how well they’ve been maintained.
> [@DrDeth](#):
>
> Since the Ukraine doesn’t have Crimea, it is only giving up a moral claim.
Everyone seems so certain about Crimea, but when was the last time anyone asked the people actually living there? In a better world I’d say let it be decided by the Crimeans in a fair vote, but with a Russian gun to their head in the real world it will never be fair or honest.
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