# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 185
### Author:  [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3683 "2022-03-30T11:11:55Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#):
>
> My guess is he’s thinking something like this. “Why didn’t Putin leave well enough alone? Everything was fine and he went and had to rock the boat. …"
Hell, I’m wondering that myself.
Putin was undisputed dictator of a huge damn country, with probably hundreds of billions in personal wealth, and the support of every other billionaire in the country. They were all living undeserved lives of luxury at the expense of other Russians, but they have the other Russians so addled with propaganda that, even now, the people seem to still largely support him.
Why toss all that out over Ukraine? How damn weak must his ego be, that he would burn all that down just to make Ukraine say “Uncle”? No one, not even Putin, needed this war. Putin just _wanted_ it, but I have no idea why. I know a lot of people have speculated that he wanted to recreate the Russian Empire, but come on, he had to know there was never a real chance at that. Is he really just that delusional? I never really bought into the “Putin = Crazy” argument until now, because up until now, most of his actions made sense, at least from the point of view of a violent dictator.
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3684 "2022-03-30T12:05:02Z")
> [@scabpicker](#):
>
> I believe I am on record here saying that I thought Russia didn’t have the personnel on hand to take all of Ukraine. The best they could hope for was a land bridge to Crimea, and even that was pretty doubtful.
Russia couldn’t take Mariopol if the Ukraine Army wasn’t tied up defending Kiev. Putin knew he had to open a multi-front war to soften up the Ukraine defenses.
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3685 "2022-03-30T12:44:39Z")
Some good news. I’m thankful the war hasn’t derailed the space program. No Americans got shoved out of an airlock. _Major Tom_
Guardian live blog
> [@](#):
>
> **A Nasa astronaut caught a Russian ride back to Earth on Wednesday after a US record 355 days at the International Space Station, returning with two cosmonauts to a world torn apart by war.**
>
> Mark Vande Hei landed in a Soyuz capsule in Kazakhstan alongside the Russian Space Agency’s Anton Shkaplerov and Pyotr Dubrov, who also spent the past year in space.
>
> Despite escalating tensions between the US and Russia over Vladimir Putin’s war with [Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), Vande Hei’s return followed customary procedures. A small Nasa team of doctors and other staff was on hand for the touchdown and planned to return immediately to Houston with the 55-year-old astronaut.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3686 "2022-03-30T12:44:46Z")
> [@Horatius](#):
>
> I know a lot of people have speculated that he wanted to recreate the Russian Empire, but come on, he had to know there was never a real chance at that.
See his speeches before he invaded. That was what he said.
> [@Horatius](#):
>
> Is he really just that delusional?
Yes, he really was that delusional – or at least he was before reality smacked him in the face.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3687 "2022-03-30T12:48:56Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> Russia couldn’t take Mariopol if the Ukraine Army wasn’t tied up defending Kiev. Putin knew he had to open a multi-front war to soften up the Ukraine defenses.
They never thought there would be any serious serious fighting at all. They thought they could just march in and take over with minimal resistance, and that most Ukrainians would simply accept it.
They had no subtle and devious war plan, and no plan B. They were just caught up in the situation and had to do the best they could.
Kyiv was their main objective. They intended to drive to the centre of Kyiv, overthrow the government with the help of pro-Russian supporters, and install their own puppet regime.
They have now realised that it’s not possible for them to take Kyiv, so they are focusing on scaled-down objectives.
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3688 "2022-03-30T12:58:20Z")
I remember there were concerns the Ukrainian military might choose not to fight. Avoid conflict by allowing the Russians to take over.
Boy, did that ever turn out to be wrong. 😉
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### Author:  [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3689 "2022-03-30T13:23:12Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> Russia couldn’t take Mariopol if the Ukraine Army wasn’t tied up defending Kiev. Putin knew he had to open a multi-front war to soften up the Ukraine defenses.
Well, and that’s why I expected there to be a feint up north to distract Ukraine while they tried to run across Mariupol and link to Crimea. I was mightily surprised to see the large mass of force we saw up there. And like I said, even if they had played it smart and only tried to bite a small piece of Ukraine off, I didn’t think they had the personnel in place to really do that, either.
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### Author:  [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3690 "2022-03-30T13:40:13Z")
> [@scabpicker](#):
>
> Well, and that’s why I expected there to be a feint up north to distract Ukraine while they tried to run across Mariupol and link to Crimea. I was mightily surprised to see the large mass of force we saw up there. And like I said, even if they had played it smart and only tried to bite a small piece of Ukraine off, I didn’t think they had the personnel in place to really do that, either.
From what I can see/have heard-read/guess, they were figuring a ‘grand envelopment’, striking from the North and South to meet in the center and cut off all Ukrainian troops fighting in the Eastern half of the country and then roll up the Western half. Not a bad strategy…if you have large, very mobile forces with good logistics and a command structure that values movement and hitting hard and quick, it’s not a bad way to win a war; however, it appears the Russians of today have none of those attributes (Georgy Zhukov is rolling in his grave).
Also,
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#):
>
> He’s believed to be hunkering in a secret bunker in the Urals:
Not sure the Daily Mail is the best source for news; does someone have a more reputable source for this?
> [@GreenWyvern](#):
>
> Can you give us some examples? Aggressor countries, that is, not attacked countries.
Of course the Russo-Finnish War of 1940 would be the prime example, and the Boer War in S. Africa did not start well for the British at all.
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### Author:  [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3691 "2022-03-30T13:42:59Z")
> [@Magiver](#):
>
> Imagine a Ukrainian force driving deep into Russia because there is no hardware available to stop them.
I seriously doubt that is going to happen. It would rally the Russian people like nothing else would and could give Putin the excuse to go nuclear. Stick with just kicking them out of Ukraine as an objective.
Of course, if a few operatives crossed the border and blew up some railroad tracks, well, things like that happen…
Press on.
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### Author:  [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3692 "2022-03-30T13:44:55Z")
I don’t think Russia has additional assets that it can bring to the fight. They’ve expended what they have. There is ample evidence that the troops do not want to fight. There is ample evidence that they do not have food, fuel, and other supplies. There is ample evidence that the material they do have is in remarkably poor condition. There is ample evidence that they are losing their senior leadership (and no it is not so simple as to say “Next!” and promote some colonel to general). Additionally, the sanctions put a real-time limit on what they can do. Overall, this is not the position you would want to be in to win a war.
Pulling back across the border to resupply is not going to fundamentally change things. In some sense it is worse. It will be even harder to motivate people pulled out of (losing) combat to go back in. It is simply the fundamental nature of the psychology of fighting. I.e, once you put your head down (when under fire), it is very hard to put it back up because you feel momentarily safe.
I could be wrong. I’ve been wrong before, and I’ll certainly be wrong again; however, I think it would take a very improbable event to changes things for Russia. I think it is clear that Russia (well Putin) has changed their war goals and is willing to settle for Crimea and independence for Eastern Ukraine (with Russian puppets).
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### Author:  [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3693 "2022-03-30T14:04:14Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#):
>
> I think it is clear that Russia (well Putin) has changed their war goals and is willing to settle for Crimea and independence for Eastern Ukraine (with Russian puppets).
The fly in the ointment there is that it is not at all clear the _Ukrainians_ are willing to settle for that.
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### Author:  [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3694 "2022-03-30T14:04:32Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#):
>
> Not sure the Daily Mail is the best source for news; does someone have a more reputable source for this?
Nothing about any bunker, but Shoigu did show up again on March 26, according to CNN:
[https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/24/europe/russia-sergei-shoigu-health-intl/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/24/europe/russia-sergei-shoigu-health-intl/index.html)
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3695 "2022-03-30T14:27:31Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#):
>
> Of course the Russo-Finnish War of 1940 would be the prime example, and the Boer War in S. Africa did not start well for the British at all.
To some extent the Soviets did get their act together in Finland after a bad start, but the main deciding factor was that they were able to substantially increase the number of troops and amount of military equipment they committed, and keep feeding in more and more even after they outnumbered the Finns three to one.
The British were defeated in the First Boer War. In the Second Boer War 20 years later, they had improved their tactics, but they eventually won simply by force of numbers and a harsh scorched earth policy.
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### Author:  [@Kelby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kelby)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3696 "2022-03-30T14:53:46Z")
> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> Questions are now being asked in Washington about how US intelligence could have so overestimated the capabilities of the Russian military. What they did manage to get right was predicting that Putin would invade.
>
> I myself was wrong on both counts. I thought the threat of invasion was mostly a bluff, because I didn’t think Putin was that stupid and reckless. But when they did invade, I feared Ukraine would be overrun pretty quickly. But I was wrong, and so were US intelligence agencies. A little snippet from a CNN article:
>
> > Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said that US intelligence assessments before the invasion were based on a number of factors, including that the Ukrainians were “not as ready as I thought they should be.”
> >
> > “Therefore, I questioned their will to fight. That was a bad assessment on my part, because they have fought bravely and honorably and are doing the right thing,” he said.
Seems like they misjudged both the Ukrainian and Afghan citizens willingness to fight.
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3697 "2022-03-30T15:02:41Z")
Another Russian lie exposed.
Why? What’s the point of lying? Who do they think they’re fooling? Lying accomplishs nothing except ruining their diplomatic reputation.
> **[Russia bombards Chernihiv hours after pledging to halt shelling](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/30/ukraine-russia-bombards-chernihiv-hours-after-pledging-to-halt-shelling)**
>
> Mayor of northern Ukrainian city says there is no evidence of any withdrawal of Russian forces
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### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3698 "2022-03-30T15:07:26Z")
> **[Putin's senior advisors are feeding him bad information about the Ukrainian...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/putins-senior-advisors-feeding-him-135352877.html)**
>
> "We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russian military is performing," a US official told NBC News.
> “We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being [crippled by sanctions](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-western-sanctions-declaration-of-war-economy-ukraine-invasion-expert-2022-3?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=yahoo.com), because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth,” said the official told NBC News, citing declassified intelligence.
>
> “Putin didn’t even know his military was using and losing [conscripts](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-admits-sending-young-conscripts-into-its-ukraine-war-2022-3?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=yahoo.com) in Ukraine, showing a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” the official added.
>
> Western officials [told reporters](https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-elites-may-blame-others-ukraine-war-western-officials-say-2022-3?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=yahoo.com) on Tuesday Russian elites will likely blame each other for Russia’s “disastrous progress” in its war with Ukraine.
Sounds somewhat familiar…
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### Author:  [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3699 "2022-03-30T17:29:52Z")
6 posts were split to a new topic: [Subscribing to The Guardian and other Free news sites](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/subscribing-to-the-guardian-and-other-free-news-sites/961997)
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### Author:  [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3700 "2022-03-30T15:23:21Z")
I think the US should do airstrikes on Russian forces with stealth aircraft, then publicly deny it. Russia would know and complain, but the US would say “you bombarded Chernihiv, hurrr hurrr hurrr”
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### Author:  [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3701 "2022-03-30T15:26:46Z")
Should be fine as long as we put Chinese flags on them.
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### Author:  [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)
#### Post date: [March 30, 2022, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3702 "2022-03-30T15:33:37Z")
Military overreach is almost always the result of someone getting high on their own supply.
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