# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 191
### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3810 "2022-04-01T18:15:33Z")
From Andrei Soldatov, a top expert on the Russian security services.
> **[The Bear Breaks Down: Andrei Soldatov on Russia’s Self-Destruction](https://octavian.substack.com/p/the-bear-breaks-down-andrei-soldatov?s=r)**
>
> "When you have a guy in the Kremlin who is being absolutely delusional about the real situation in Ukraine, you can’t speak in terms of a coherent foreign policy."
Some snippets:
…
> **OR:** Let’s go back to the beginning. How do you explain the massive intelligence and policy failures that led Putin to start this war? Do you think that Russia’s intelligence agencies shared his fantasies about Ukraine?
>
> **Soldatov:** Russia’s intelligence agencies might not be extremely competent, but they’re not that stupid. Of course they understood that nobody wants to join a new Soviet Union or any of that. …
> So it was a terrible miscalculation, but not because of the intelligence. It was because of Putin himself.
…
> **OR:** What do you make of the recent American claims that Putin is being misinformed by his aides about the progress of the war?
>
> **Soldatov:** I think it’s true. … We know what his initial war plan was, right? It involved airstrikes combined with sending vehicle columns deep into Ukraine. Now, this plan crashed immediately, as soon as it faced reality on the battleground. But Russia’s tactics didn’t change for more than a month, which is absolutely astonishing. They kept sending these columns deep into Ukrainian territory for weeks and weeks and weeks. And you would only do that if your leader was still convinced that the initial plan was absolutely fine.
…
> **OR:** What you’re saying suggests massive disarray within the Russian state, the military, the political apparatus, and the intelligence services, as though everything is breaking down.
>
> **Soldatov:** That’s my impression.
---
### Author:  [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3811 "2022-04-01T18:18:30Z")
Ukrainian helicopters bombed a fuel depot inside Russian territory. Russia is outraged.
> **[Russia accuses Ukraine of helicopter strikes on fuel depot in Russian...](https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/01/europe/russia-ukraine-belgorod-fire-intl/index.html)**
>
> Russia accused Ukraine of mounting a helicopter attack on a fuel depot inside Russian territory Friday, as footage surfaced of the facility engulfed in flames.
---
### Author:  [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3812 "2022-04-01T18:21:50Z")
“How _dare_ they fight back!”
---
### Author:  [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3813 "2022-04-01T18:44:53Z")
> **[Ukraine denies attacking fuel depot inside Russia, mayor says fire almost out](https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-russias-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/)**
>
> Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out an air strike against a fuel depot in the Russian city of Belgorod on Friday, an incident the Kremlin said could affect peace talks, but a top Kyiv security official denied responsibility.
Ukraine is denying it was them, which is very confusing.
---
### Author:  [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3814 "2022-04-01T18:54:05Z")
Or very reasonable, depending on your point of view.
There is no requirement that Ukraine claims any attack as their own.
If they don’t claim credit then perhaps the Russians will wonder if it was some of their own - either mistaken (because we’ve seen a lot of lost Russians in this war) or rebellion.
It is possible it might have been a third party, but I find that unlikely at this point.
---
### Author:  [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3815 "2022-04-01T19:32:57Z")
It certainly raises the potential of a third party but I’d say that a Russian accident, a Russian false flag operation, a Ukrainian acting out of orders, or Ukraine trying to confuse things all seem more likely.
If it is a false flag operation then that would seem to increase the potential that they’re planning to bring in less discriminate weapons (nukes, chemical weapons, etc.) and need a justification.
---
### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3816 "2022-04-01T19:46:13Z")
The helicopters were identified as Mi-24 Hind, which have a range of 450 km (280 mi).
Therefore, the attack was done by either:
- the Ukrainians
- the Russians, as a false flag attack
- the ghosts of the Russian helicopter pilots that have been shot down, as revenge for being sent to their deaths
I feel the Ukrainians would be more forceful in their denial if it was a false flag attack. So one of the other two options.
---
### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3817 "2022-04-01T19:47:53Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#):
>
> These guys don’t mind slaughtering Russian civilians. I don’t think they would balk at killing Ukrainian civilians.
Agreed. They just don’t like it when people are shooting back at them. That’s when they decide they don’t want to go. Kill unarmed civilians, women and childen? Sure. Fight against armed soldiers? Pass.
---
### Author:  [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3818 "2022-04-01T19:58:09Z")
> [@Cardigan](#):
>
> That’s beginning to look like the start of an actual withdrawal. Sure they’re likely repositioning and regrouping.
If regrouping actually accomplishes anything, which it won’t if they continue to lack food, fuel, ammunition and other supplies. I.E., the distinction between falling back and being routed.
---
### Author:  [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3819 "2022-04-01T20:02:17Z")
> [@DrDeth](#):
>
> “How _dare_ they fight back!”
Russia is famous for their long, grey, soul-sucking winters, so it should come as no surprise to see Kremlin full of delicate snowflakes.
---
### Author:  [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3820 "2022-04-01T20:14:37Z")
> [@Cardigan](#):
>
> That’s beginning to look like the start of an actual withdrawal. Sure, they’re likely repositioning and regrouping.
isn’t a withdrawing army HIGHLY vulnerable? (after all that’s just another convoy moving back, and everybody knows which route the must take) …
so - how will that work for the ukr… will they ambush a lot?
---
### Author:  [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3821 "2022-04-01T20:16:20Z")
Just a guess, but the increased ‘attacks’ reported around Kyiv may be lots of air strikes and artillery intended to cover their withdrawals.
---
### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3822 "2022-04-01T20:17:15Z")
From the Guardian:
> Russia is redeploying elements of its forces from Georgia to reinforce its invasion of Ukraine , British military intelligence said on Thursday.
>
> Between 1,200 and 2,000 of these Russian troops are being reorganised into 3x Battalion Tactical Groups,” Britain’s ministry of defence said.
>
> It is highly unlikely that Russia planned to generate reinforcements in this mannerand it is indicative of the unexpected losses it has sustained during the invasion.”
This may be a good time for Georgia to re-assert it’s autonomy. After 2008, the Georgians have no love for the Russians.
---
### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3823 "2022-04-01T20:17:26Z")
> [@Al128](#):
>
> will they ambush a lot?
Does that guy do that do that thing in the woods?
Of course!
---
### Author:  [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3824 "2022-04-01T20:24:52Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> This may be a good time for Georgia to re-assert it’s autonomy. After 2008, the Georgians have no love for the Russians.
Were the troops actually _in_ Georgia, or just stationed along the border?
---
### Author:  [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3825 "2022-04-01T20:50:25Z")
I assumed South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
---
### Author:  [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3826 "2022-04-01T21:05:18Z")
If Georgia is up for it, then this seems like a peachy keen time for them to join in. Russia seems to have a few resource problems. Why not make them worse?
---
### Author:  [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3827 "2022-04-01T21:10:27Z")
> [@Sunny\_Daze](#):
>
> Why not make them worse?
Well, they’d probably end with various cities being shelled/rocketed. Now that could be a good tradeoff, but it’s not a cost free opportunity for Georgia.
---
### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3828 "2022-04-01T21:31:12Z")
>
Things have been muddy because of the melting snow, but it looks like things will get even more muddy with spring rain.
> **[Kiev Climate, Weather By Month, Average Temperature (Ukraine) - Weather Spark](https://weatherspark.com/y/96633/Average-Weather-in-Kiev-Ukraine-Year-Round#Figures-Rainfall)**
>
> In Kiev, the summers are comfortable and partly cloudy and the winters are long, freezing, snowy, windy, and mostly cloudy. Over the course of the year, the temperature typically varies from 20°F to 78°F and is rarely below 1°F or above 88°F.
> **[Rasputitsa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa)**
>
> Pages for logged out editors learn more
>
> Rasputitsa (Russian: распу́тица, IPA: \[rɐsˈputʲɪtsə\]) is a season of the year when travel on unpaved roads or across country becomes difficult, owing to muddy conditions from rain or melting snow.
> Rasputitsa is derived from the roots: рас- (ras-), "disagreeable", + путь (put), "travel", + -ица (-itsa) is a diminutive suffix. In Russia, the term refers to two periods during the year – the spring and autumn – and also refers to road conditions du...
---
### Author:  [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)
#### Post date: [April 1, 2022, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/3829 "2022-04-01T21:31:29Z")
> [@Broomstick](#):
>
> Or very reasonable, depending on your point of view.
>
> There is no requirement that Ukraine claims any attack as their own.
At this point, I think they’re going with “Trolling the Troll”. Russia is so used to being the one doing the lying, being lied to is probably messing with their heads.
And they deserve it, too.
[Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=190)
[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=192)