# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 203
### Author:  [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4100 "2022-04-05T15:27:34Z")
This.
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### Author:  [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4101 "2022-04-05T15:27:39Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#):
>
> But what was the “right” answer then may not be now, obviously. I say that not knowing exactly what the “best” answer to the problem might be in this case.
And additionally, most answers I’ve seen seem to be predicated on the assumption that Putin is predictable.
I was in the military during the cold war and we were generally comfortable in the assumption that the USSR wouldn’t just “lose it” for some arbitrary, impulsive reason. But now is much different.
As I mentioned earlier, what if Putin demands the lifting of all sanctions “or else”?
Or what if Putin demands that all NATO non-domestic military forces withdraw to their own respective countries, or else?
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### Author:  [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4102 "2022-04-05T15:41:26Z")
> [@velomont](#):
>
> As I mentioned earlier, what if Putin demands the lifting of all sanctions “or else”?
> Or what if Putin demands that all NATO non-domestic military forces withdraw to their own respective countries, or else?
I would hope the West would realize that by that point, caving in would literally mean Putin gets the world on a silver platter at nuclear gunpoint.
“Hey Apple, build 10 factories in Moscow or else”
“South Korea, build seven foundries in Nizniy Novgorod or else”
“Switzerland, gimme a thousand tons of gold right now”
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### Author:  [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4103 "2022-04-05T15:46:22Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#):
>
> Should we? Certainly not. But this leads into another thread that’s related regarding nuclear weapons-how far do we push Putin?
back to Russia.
The UN should be blunt and state this has to stop and Russia will no longer be allowed to attack the Ukraine. Additional force will continue to be applied to stop it.
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### Author:  [@mjmartin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mjmartin)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4104 "2022-04-05T16:16:21Z")
> [@Magiver](#):
>
> The UN should be blunt and state this has to stop and Russia will no longer be allowed to attack the Ukraine. Additional force will continue to be applied to stop it.
They did. The vote was 141 to 5 in early March. If there is another vote, Russia will be just as impacted and moved as they were by the first vote. There is no solution to this problem that doesn’t involve Putin having a massive and permanent demotion.
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4105 "2022-04-05T16:27:09Z")
Interesting fact for the day:
Russian forces are only about three miles away from New York.
New York, Ukraine, that is.
> [@](#):
>
> The settlement first appeared on maps in 1846 under its original name New York and was then situated in the Yekaterinoslav Governorate of the Russian Empire. According to official data, in 1859 the village consisted of 13 households, 45 male residents, 40 female residents, and a factory and was formally named Oleksandrivske. The precise origin of the settlement’s name is unclear.
> **[New York, Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_(Ukraine))**
>
> New York or Niu-York (Ukrainian: Нью-Йорк, .mw-parser-output .IPA-label-small{font-size:85%}.mw-parser-output .references .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .infobox .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .navbox .IPA-label-small{font-size:100%}IPA: \[nʲjʊ ˈjɔ̈rk\]; Russian: Нью-Йорк, romanized: Nyu-York) is an urban-type settlement in Toretsk urban hromada, Bakhmut Raion, Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. It is located 37.9 kilometres (23.5 mi) north-northeast from the centre of the city of Donet New...
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4106 "2022-04-05T16:50:12Z")
Gen Wesley Clark describes the upcoming escalation in Eastern Ukraine.
It’s going to be a different type of battle. It’s open battlefield warfare. Tanks against tanks. Air support is crucial. Imho I’m not sure if Ukraine is ready.
Dnipro will be a key city. I hope Ukraine is bolstering defenses. The shit will be hitting the fan. The eastern area could be lost if Ukrainian forces get encircled.
> **[Video: Retired general shows how Ukraine could stop Russia's move | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/04/05/russia-strategy-eastern-ukraine-wesley-clark-newday-vpx-sot.cnn)**
>
> Former NATO Supreme Allied Supreme Commander Gen. Wesley Clark explains what Russia's objectives are in eastern Ukraine and how Ukrainian forces can stop them.
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4107 "2022-04-05T16:52:28Z")
Another Twitter account of an American fighting in Ukraine:
[https://twitter.com/RipRawlings](https://twitter.com/RipRawlings)
> **[H. Ripley Rawlings IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._Ripley_Rawlings_IV)**
>
> Pages for logged out editors learn more
>
> Lieutenant Colonel Hunter Ripley "Rip" Rawlings IV is the New York Times bestselling co-author (with Mark Greaney) of the military fiction novel Red Metal and a former United States Marine Corps infantry & reconnaissance officer.
> Hunter R. Rawlings IV was born in Boulder, Colorado. His father, Hunter R. Rawlings III, is the former President of Cornell University and his mother, Irene Rawlings, is a travel author and radio personality in Denver, C...
Previously posted one:
[https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974](https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974)
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### Author:  [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4108 "2022-04-05T19:29:30Z")
4 posts were merged into an existing topic: [Outcome of nuclear escalation](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation/962302/66)
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### Author:  [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4112 "2022-04-05T19:28:34Z")
Please, lets keep the Nuclear conjecture in the other thread.
> [@Outcome of nuclear escalation and general Nuclear concerns Ukraine - Russia](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation/962302/59):
>
> They can tell America whatever they want but they’d be wasting time they could be spending trying get out of major population centers, as the counter strike would already be en route. What would be more debatable (and scary as you know planners on both sides have seriously considered what to do in this situation, and a plan is already in place) is what happens if Russia nukes Kyiv (or somewhere else in the Ukraine). Its not super likely, but its also not a completely crazy and out there outc…
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4113 "2022-04-05T19:52:46Z")
[ ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPmgd17WUAcnVzn?format=png&name=900x900)
>
> **[Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022...](https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html)**
>
> By Stijn Mitzer and Jakub Janovsky in collaboration with Joost Oliemans, Kemal , Dan , and naalsio26 This list only includes de...
From a couple of days ago:
>
The Oryx Russian tank loss count is currently at 425, so it sounds like the backlog is growing.
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### Author:  [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4114 "2022-04-05T19:59:17Z")
Farmers are notoriously slow about completing their paperwork.
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### Author:  [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4115 "2022-04-05T18:36:33Z")
According to the Magazine “The Week”- _Russian precision guided missiles are failing at a 50-60% rate._
Deferred maintenance due to corruption and incompetence, I suspect.
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4116 "2022-04-05T20:30:36Z")
[There’s a site](https://www.engineereddata.com/go-ukraine.html) that turns the Oryx data into graphs, but I’ve come to the conclusion that the graphs, especially the total count, indicate the speed at which the small Oryx team can process the photos and videos, rather than indicating ebbs and flows of materiel losses over time.
There seem to have been ambushes against the retreating Russian forces in the north. The Russian departure is also allowing new, previously unseen Russian vehicle wrecks to be documented.
I fear that Oryx could be working on their backlog for some time to come.
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### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4117 "2022-04-05T20:32:12Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#):
>
> There seem to have been ambushes against the retreating Russian forces in the north.
It would be a shame if all of the Russians were killed before making it to the border.
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4118 "2022-04-05T20:49:11Z")
The situation in the Russian-occupied city of Kherson is interesting. It’s on the north side of the Dnieper river and the bridges across it, which are the Russian forces only means of escape, are on the outskirts/outside the city. The Ukrainian army approaches, the citizens of Kherson are hostile. The Russian troops there must be very nervous about getting cut off, which would force their surrender.
Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych has said that the invaders are preparing to leave Kherson:
>
It’s in Ukrainian, so I can’t get the context for this - whether the Russians are willingly withdrawing or whether they’re about to get kicked out.
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### Author:  [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4119 "2022-04-05T21:02:21Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#):
>
> > [@velomont](#):
> >
> > So Putin, if he gets his way, can turn Ukraine into a country-sized concentration camp and we just stand by and let it happen, because our vital interests aren’t threatened?
>
> That’s what we essentially did between 1945 and 1991. It’s probably why we’re not all dead or living under rocks today.
Well, calling it a country-sized concentration camp is a bit off. The Soviets held Ukraine and the Caspian region from the outset, as they were vassal divisions of the Tsarist Russian Empire. For that matter, most of Siberia is questionably Russia, but they have been there so long that it is a bit like questioning whether the Dakotas belong in the US or Nunavut in Canada.
The Holodomor was in the late 1920s, not during the Cold War. Ukraine was a Soviet state for existence of the USSR, Leonid Breshnev was born there, and Eisenstein’s famous Battleship Potemkin takes place in Odessa. Ukraine was not ceded to the Soviets after WWII – it was already a Soviet state, partly by dint of being a part of the Russian Empire.
By contrast, we allow China to own Tibet without the same breadth of tradition because doing anything about that is next to impossible. But Ukraine established itself as an independent state and there is no logical reason to concede that it should be controlled by Russia, even with the extensive history of it being in the sphere of the Russian Empire, and helping them keeping their independence is presently far more realistic than trying to help Tibet wrest itself away from China.
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### Author:  [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4120 "2022-04-05T21:19:18Z")
The next phase of the war will be interesting. This is where Ukraine can potentially lose. They have to be careful of being overconfident and giving Russia a set piece or pitched battle in the east. That’s the kind of fight that would favour Russia. I think Ukraine is smart enough to avoid it, but if I were Russia, I would try to goad Ukraine into coming and taking the east back.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4121 "2022-04-05T21:24:29Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#):
>
> if I were Russia, I would try to goad Ukraine into coming and taking the east back.
Why else do you think that Russia is executing unarmed civilians and raping women? This is part of their plan.
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4122 "2022-04-05T21:37:33Z")
The Ukrainians will likely need to face a pitched battle now. In the initial invasion, Russian forces were spread out wide, like a blanket, allowing more opportunity for ambushes and attacks on supply lines. Now, the Russians are concentrating their forces, like the point of a spear, to try and push south of Izium to encircle the Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. This thrust coming from the north will need to be stopped, which will require a more conventional battle, although there could still be opportunities to attack the supply line to this thrust, or even cut it off.
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