# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 250
### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5045 "2022-04-25T18:11:16Z")
Other longterm loss for Russia is the continued destruction of their industries via internal and external attacks, particularly the soft targets of oil refineries, industrial plants, power grid and rail transportation.
Russia’s response to these attacks on military and industrial targets seems to be “send missiles to kill civilians in train stations and apartment buildings.” Which will do absolutely nothing to stop the attacks on their critical infrastructure.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5046 "2022-04-25T18:12:54Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#):
>
> -So long as Russia failed to take all of Ukraine, the majority which is unoccupied remains essentially a massive military base from which anyone with any grudge against Russia can launch proxy attacks. And Ukraine can basically crater Donbas, and extend attacks as far over the border into Russia as they wish.
I’m not that optimistic. The Donbas is Ukraine’s industrial heartland. It’s lost the ports of Sevastapol and Maryopoul, and there is still concern about Odessa. If it loses Odessa, then it’s lost all ports and is now dependent on more expensive rail transport. None of that is good for Ukraine GDP, which ultimately is key for Ukraine to keep up the offensive.
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### Author:  [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5047 "2022-04-25T18:16:41Z")
While that’s true, you might consider the trivia point that it’s fairly common for countries who recently adopted a technology to have better versions of it than the early adopters.
If Ukraine is able to ward off Russia, they’re going to have no end up foreign funding to rebuild their factories and infrastructure, and that’s all going to be the most modern and most efficient versions of those things.
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### Author:  [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5048 "2022-04-25T18:20:30Z")
> [@Alessan](#):
>
> Face it: just like with everything else, the Russians talk a big game when it comes to technology, but when push comes to shove they’ll fall laughably short.
Oddly, in WW-II the technology that worked for Russia was solid easily produced weapons in massive quantities. What ultimately failed for Germany was producing expensive superior weapons in low quantity. they lost as many Tiger tanks invading Russia due to mechanical issues than in combat. Hitler wasted resources on expensive mega weapons that were always late to the game instead of building more of their very capable weapons.
Oddly we have witnessed the USSR (and now Russia) emulate Hitler’s strategy of mis-allocation of resources. A lot money went into high tech weaponry but not in the field level weapons. And it appears that maintenance is lacking.
The newest nuclear weapon is a case in point. A lot of money went into a missile that’s harder to hit but they have so many nuclear missiles that even a fraction of a fraction of them would ensure total destruction. It was a complete mismanagement of resources.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5049 "2022-04-25T18:32:59Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#):
>
> If Ukraine is able to ward off Russia, they’re going to have no end up foreign funding to rebuild their factories and infrastructure, and that’s all going to be the most modern and most efficient versions of those things.
Depends what “ward off Russia” means? Right now, and for the past 8 years, a big chunk of Ukraine’s industry has been in Russian occupation. Are they going to be able to push Russia out to regain that territory? If not, it’s not a “rebuild” operation; it’s a “build” operation, from the ground up, in western Ukraine.
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### Author:  [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5050 "2022-04-25T18:36:16Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> Are they going to be able to push Russia out to regain that territory?
Ideally, Russia won’t be able to afford to stay there.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5051 "2022-04-25T18:40:19Z")
I understand. I’m just saying that it’s not just Russia that has money problems.
Running a war is expensive business, especially when you’ve lost a lot of your industrial base, you’re not able to plant your crops that bring in a big chunk of foreign exchange, and your shipping costs may skyrocket if your one remaining port gets blockaded.
Yes, the people of Ukraine are fighting for their existence as an independent country, but that takes a lot of resources.
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### Author:  [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5052 "2022-04-25T18:44:01Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> I think VP Harris should have made the trip. It would have made a statement of support comparable to other NATO leaders.
>
> > [@](#):
> >
> > ## US officials meet Zelenskiy in Kyiv
> >
> > US defense secretary Lloyd Austin and secretary of state Antony Blinken are currently in talks with Volodymyr Zelensky, an advisor told local Ukrainian news outlets. Zelensky is expected to use the meeting to appeal for more US military aid.
While I see your point, I’m wondering if the Ukrainians would rather have another photo-op visit (I’m looking at you, Boris Johnson) or a visit from people who can actually do something to help them? The Secretaries of Defense and State might not be as showy as the PotUS but maybe they’re a more direct line to what the Ukrainians actually need right now.
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### Author:  [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5053 "2022-04-25T18:48:17Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> I don’t see private conversation v public testimony as a “small distinction”. YMMV, of course.
the private conversation was likely recorded with notes taken at the time.
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### Author:  [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5054 "2022-04-25T18:57:45Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> Russian State media is admitting the fuel losses?
>
> It seems like inflated numbers. Perhaps to give Ukraine the wrong impression about fuel supplies?
>
> > [@](#):
> >
> > - **Large fires broke out early on Monday at two oil depots in the Russian city of Bryansk, less than 100 miles from the border with Ukraine, in a potential act of sabotage by Kyiv.** Russian state media said[the first fire occurred at a civilian facility in Bryansk holding 10,000 tons of fuel,](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/large-fires-break-out-russian-oil-depots-bryansk-near-ukraine-border) followed by a second fire at a military fuel depot holding 5,000 tons.
The way that’s phrased is sounds like _the entire city of Kviv_ snuck across the border like a ninja and engaged in sabotage. Ninja city!
> [@Sage\_Rat](#):
>
> They’ve already lost. The best outcome that Putin can hope for, since the world decided to unify economically against Russia, is that he isn’t deposed and that he is able to maintain power over his own country.
>
> Having some fig leaf of battlefield success would help with staying in power, but it still wouldn’t be winning. Coming out in a lower position than you started is never a win.
Basically another North Korea situation.
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### Author:  [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5055 "2022-04-25T19:08:22Z")
> [@Broomstick](#):
>
> Basically another North Korea situation.
I would say the difference is there’s a lot more people in Russia who would openly revolt.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5056 "2022-04-25T19:14:45Z")
Indeed. It would be exceptionally hard to convince millions of Russians that the western goods and travel that they enjoyed a few years ago never actually existed.
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### Author:  [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5057 "2022-04-25T19:25:05Z")
If POTUS or another well-known US politician visited Ukraine the Russians would spin it this being an American war against Russia. Blinken was probably the most appropriate figure the US thought it could get away with.
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### Author:  [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5058 "2022-04-25T19:51:12Z")
Not if it’s one of a constant stream of countries who object to the war. It would be strengthened by non-NATO leaders making the trip. The spin doesn’t look so good when a large number of countries object to the war enough to show up in Ukraine.
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### Author:  [@Sauron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sauron)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5059 "2022-04-25T19:58:21Z")
> It’s lost the ports of Sevastapol and Maryopoul, and there is still concern about Odessa. If it loses Odessa, then it’s lost all ports and is now dependent on more expensive rail transport.
I would say the likelihood of Ukraine losing Odessa is fairly miniscule right now. Odessa is more than 325 miles west of Mariupol, and roughly 190 miles west of the Crimean peninsula. The Russians are having a difficult time maintaining their gains in eastern and southern Ukraine, and a new Ukrainian offensive eastward from Voznesensk may complete the encirclement and liberation of Kherson.
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#):
>
> If POTUS or another well-known US politician visited Ukraine the Russians would spin it this being an American war against Russia.
Not to mention that hours after Blinken and Austin left Kyiv, the Russians attacked several railroad hubs in Ukraine. To me that sounds like the Russians learned of the visit and were hoping to get lucky by killing some American VIPs who had the audacity to interfere. Their intel was just wrong, or came too late.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5060 "2022-04-25T20:07:29Z")
True, but there’s also the possibility of naval blockade of Odessa. (Altho’ lessened, now that _Moskva_ is on permanent deep-water assignment.)
> [@Sauron](#):
>
> Their intel was just wrong, or came too late.
Or, they were sending a warning: “If we’d wanted to, we coulda…”
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### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5061 "2022-04-25T20:10:51Z")
Assuming Russia takes the East and keeps Crimea, could they actually pull off a naval blockade? Ukraine has already demonstrated they could sink a Russian ship, and they may receive longer-range/more-capable anti-ship missiles should the need arise. And they would probably be able to use aircraft, as any incursion by Russian aircraft would be met with violence. If hostilities are ongoing, Turkey would probably bar Russian ships from entering.
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### Author:  [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5062 "2022-04-25T20:46:20Z")
What worries me about Ukraine’s long-term chances is this: is Russia continuing to get weaker as the conflict goes on- materiel lost, soldiers demoralized, sanctions biting- or could Russia be close to “bottomed out” already and has nowhere to go but up? With the possible exception of Italy in WW1, a few years in the school of hard knocks is usually enough for sheer selection to produce a return to basic competency. Heck, Putin probably thinks that Russia could return to a self-sufficient command economy if it had to and that this might actually be preferable to depending on the West. Remember that the USSR’s war against Finland was as big a botch as this war, but ultimately Finland lost Karelia to the Soviets.
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### Author:  [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5063 "2022-04-25T20:54:52Z")
Sure, certain David and Goliath comparisons with the Winter War are inevitable, but there are some pretty significant differences too. Namely, Ukraine is receiving serious political, economic, and military support from dozens of nations, whereas Finland had nowhere near as much international support.
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### Author:  [@Sauron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sauron)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2022, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5064 "2022-04-25T21:04:09Z")
> [@Lumpy](#):
>
> What worries me about Ukraine’s long-term chances is this: is Russia continuing to get weaker as the conflict goes on- materiel lost, soldiers demoralized, sanctions biting- or could Russia be close to “bottomed out” already and has nowhere to go but up?
I’m not an expert on the economic sanctions by any stretch, but I’ve read on various sites that Russia’s economy – and particularly their ability to manufacture high-tech weaponry – is going to be, to quote Leonard from _The Big Bang Theory_, “an inclined plane wrapped helically around an axis” for the foreseeable future.
Russia is rich in various natural resources, but they lack expertise in several manufacturing disciplines (electronic and otherwise). When you’re part of a global economy, that’s not such a bad thing … you can reap the benefits of others’ expertise through trade. When you’re isolated, though – and especially when a portion of your citizenry has become accustomed to a certain standard of living – it’s very difficult to manage and overcome.
Russia, along with China, are probably the only two countries positioned to weather a situation like this; a large portion of the population of both is accustomed to (frankly) getting crapped on by their authoritarian governments. Even so, I don’t think it’s likely Russia will be a major player on the world economic stage any time in the foreseeable future. They were already second-tier to begin with.
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