### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [May 3, 2022, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5365 "2022-05-03T23:46:06Z")
I’m not sure if FilkTheBlue was referring to my post.
In any case, things may have gone too far. Even if people believe the truth, they’re afraid to acknowledge it.
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### Author:  [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5366 "2022-05-04T00:17:37Z")
> [@Bootb](#):
>
> I would be greatly surprised if the Russian public knows about even a quarter of the cost of the war, either in lives or weapons lost.
People are getting arrested for holding up a blank sign… they know.
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### Author:  [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5367 "2022-05-04T02:02:43Z")
One of the Anonymous Twitter accounts posted a handy map of suspicious Russian fires:
>
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### Author:  [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5368 "2022-05-04T05:33:14Z")
I was thinking that it might be a Pyrrhic victory for _Russia_, if they end the war with more territory taken from of SE Ukraine.
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### Author:  [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5369 "2022-05-04T07:22:07Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#):
>
> Long article digging into why everyday Russians support the war:
>
> [Feeling around for something human Why do Russians support the war against Ukraine? Shura Burtin investigates. — Meduza](https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/03/feeling-around-for-something-human)
The iinstructive part is here:
> [@](#):
>
> I’d heard that word already, from my mother. On the third day of the war, I went over to her house and she suddenly started talking about targeted strikes and “where were we looking for the past eight years.” I started telling her about the bombings, about a girl I knew in Kharkiv who’d called me, terrified, during a break in the shelling. I explained that there was a real war going on and that I didn’t understand how people refused to see this monstrous thing. My mother sat there stupefied, staring down at the floor.
>
> “People are tired of negativity,” she sighed.
>
> That phrase explained something. In the past 20 years, every time I’ve happened to overhear what’s being said on television, they were frightening people with something: migrants, “Gayropa,” Banderites — the main thing is that these people are just “others.” I suppose that the audience itself had wanted this. Having something specific to fear was more manageable than the free-floating terror of the unknown that people were forced to live with during the 1990s.
If you can relentlessly pound the populace with unpleasantness, they will be worn down to the point where you can wrap a turd in the flag and they will eat it up.
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### Author:  [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5370 "2022-05-04T07:47:21Z")
Combine that with the baseline Russian fatalism and nihilism, and you don’t really need to try that hard.
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### Author:  [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 9:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5371 "2022-05-04T09:11:38Z")
The Abortion Thing has chased the Ukraine Thing below the fold on news sites this morning. We must not be distracted.
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### Author:  [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5372 "2022-05-04T10:48:44Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> One gesture of humanity might have helped Russia’s International support.
You’re assuming that Russia wants or even cares about “international support”. So far, the evidence leans towards the contrary.
> [@Dinsdale](#):
>
> Germany and Japan recovered pretty well after WWII, no?
Yes, with outside help from those who had defeated them. Had there not been support and aid for defeated Germany and Japan thousands (tens of thousands?) would have perished from shortages of vital things like food and fuel and it would have taken much, much longer to rebuild their infrastructure and economy.
Would Russia get such support? Interesting question. The US and others who helped rebuild Germany and Japan felt they had some self-interest in doing so. Who would feel that way about Russia? Certainly not the US (well, OK, we’d send food to keep people from starving, we do that even for declared enemies like North Korea but they’ll need more than food). India? They have their own problems, and I doubt they’d help without something substantial in return. China? Maybe… but with a lot of string attached.
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> Do you think this could be another Chechen war?(December 1994 to August 1996) Russians left once for a couple years and came back for the 2nd war that dragged on 10 years.(August 1999 to April 2009).
>
> I could see the Russians pulling back and leaving forces in Donbas. Rebuild the military and invade again in a few years.
We’re on Invasion II of that program - Russia invade Crimea in 2014, “rested” for 8 years, and is now back for more. So yes, they could do that because they’re already doing that.
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### Author:  [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5373 "2022-05-04T12:16:21Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#):
>
> That article just confirms that countries with authoritarian regimes are the ones supporting Russia or refusing to condemn them.
South Africa does not have an authoritarian regime. It’s exactly that kind of glib narrative that prompted that article.
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### Author:  [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5374 "2022-05-04T12:45:03Z")
> [@Broomstick](#):
>
> > [@aceplace57](#):
> >
> > One gesture of humanity might have helped Russia’s International support.
>
> You’re assuming that Russia wants or even cares about “international support”. So far, the evidence leans towards the contrary.
>
> > [@Dinsdale](#):
> >
> > Germany and Japan recovered pretty well after WWII, no?
>
> Yes, with outside help from those who had defeated them. Had there not been support and aid for defeated Germany and Japan thousands (tens of thousands?) would have perished from shortages of vital things like food and fuel and it would have taken much, much longer to rebuild their infrastructure and economy.
>
> Would Russia get such support? Interesting question. The US and others who helped rebuild Germany and Japan felt they had some self-interest in doing so.
Also, many German and Japanese cities had been bombed into rubble. Those countries had their infrastructures destroyed with millions dead. As you point out, many more would have died without foreign aid.
In what scenario does Russia suffer such dire consequences?
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### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5375 "2022-05-04T12:47:48Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#):
>
> Those red armbands on the black uniforms is a great look for the country obsessed with denazifying Ukraine. Just saying.
It’s literally the only thing I notice.
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### Author:  [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5376 "2022-05-04T13:04:26Z")
> [@Broomstick](#):
>
> India? They have their own problems, and I doubt they’d help without something substantial in return
Who doesn’t have their own problems!!
The fact is that until 9/11 and perhaps even past that, the US was pro - Pakistan: supporting the Taliban insurgency against Russia, funneling money through Pakistan. Then the US went on to support Dictators in Pakistan with money / weapons. All through this, the US did not let India buy US weapons / fighter jets etc.
All the while India bought its arms from Russia / France / UK etc, with the result that 70% of India’s overall Arsenal is of Russian origin. The Navy relied the most on Russia, followed by the air-force. Russian parts and servicing is essential for India to defend itself against the belligerent China at its border.
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### Author:  [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5377 "2022-05-04T14:00:46Z")
There’s been quite a bit of [speculation that Russia may formally declare war on Ukraine](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/western-officials-think-putin-may-formally-declare-war-on-ukraine-on-may-9-russia-s-victory-day-making-his-special-military-operation-bloodier/ar-AAWUh0K?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6bdbe3aea5084a1f94fac58d0d982346) on May 9th, as opposed to doing a victory lap that day. I wonder what impacts that will have on the war? Up to now, Russia has been fighting with one hand behind their back in terms of manpower. A declaration of war would allow the government to commit full reserves, active conscription, and conversion of industry to war production. But how might this affect the outcome long term?
[Western officials think Putin may formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9 — Russia’s Victory Day — making his ‘special military operation’ bloodier (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/western-officials-think-putin-may-formally-declare-war-on-ukraine-on-may-9-russia-s-victory-day-making-his-special-military-operation-bloodier/ar-AAWUh0K?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6bdbe3aea5084a1f94fac58d0d982346)
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### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5378 "2022-05-04T14:01:28Z")
> [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](#):
>
> The Abortion Thing has chased the Ukraine Thing below the fold on news sites this morning. We must not be distracted.
[As I said…](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24/960037/5341)
Americans are like, ‘Oh! Something shiny!’ ☹
---
### Author:  [@Sauron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sauron)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5379 "2022-05-04T14:08:26Z")
RE: The Meduza article linked above:
The other thing I noticed was several people (usually older) don’t call Putin “President;” they referred to “the tsar.”
On the whole, it seems that nation truly has a single identity; the vast majority of the population is perfectly content to follow a strong leader no matter what decisions he makes. They’re fatalistic, and will go to any mental lengths to justify terrible things done to others “to defend the Motherland.”
The article made the comparison of an abused wife continually returning to her husband, i.e. “he only beats me because he loves me, and he knows best.” They have no concept whatsoever of democratic self-rule.
Hoping for a massive groundswell of grassroots opposition in Russia to the war is a fool’s errand, I think.
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### Author:  [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5380 "2022-05-04T14:13:55Z")
There’s precedent for Russians deposing their governments after failed military operations. Granted, the circumstances were different each time but it can and in fact has happened before.
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### Author:  [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5381 "2022-05-04T14:21:25Z")
> [@Cardigan](#):
>
> There’s been quite a bit of [speculation that Russia may formally declare war on Ukraine](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/western-officials-think-putin-may-formally-declare-war-on-ukraine-on-may-9-russia-s-victory-day-making-his-special-military-operation-bloodier/ar-AAWUh0K?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6bdbe3aea5084a1f94fac58d0d982346) on May 9th, as opposed to doing a victory lap that day. I wonder what impacts that will have on the war?
I’m just hoping he doesn’t get really stupid and declare formal war on _NATO and the US_ that day, because that’s when the shit really starts hitting the fan.
---
### Author:  [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5382 "2022-05-04T15:22:59Z")
> [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](#):
>
> The Abortion Thing has chased the Ukraine Thing below the fold on news sites this morning. We must not be distracted.
Honestly it doesn’t even matter. The US is not helping Ukraine because its popular or because it has the publics attention. They are helping Ukraine because the next fight is against NATO and now that they know Russia would crumble instantly in that fight they are terrified of their response to that.
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### Author:  [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5383 "2022-05-04T15:38:51Z")
> [@Sauron](#):
>
> The other thing I noticed was several people (usually older) don’t call Putin “President;” they referred to “the tsar.”
Or “Uncle Vova”. What the hell is that?
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### Author:  [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2022, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/5384 "2022-05-04T16:04:05Z")
> [@Akaj](#):
>
> In what scenario does Russia suffer such dire consequences?
The slow squeeze of sanctions. It’s less dramatic than dropping bombs on their cities but the net effect will be similar. I’d say North Korea writ large but I’m pretty sure Russian can feed itself even without the Ukranian breadbasket.
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