# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 312

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6285 "2022-06-20T14:32:28Z")

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A Russian attack on a NATO member would be just what we need, to finally end this war swiftly on the good guys’ terms.

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**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6286 "2022-06-20T14:50:34Z")

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Or just what Putin needs to launch nuclear strikes.

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**Author:** ![Mighty\_Mouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mighty_mouse/32/7776_2.png) [@Mighty\_Mouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Mouse)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6287 "2022-06-20T15:14:17Z")

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NATO members need to buckle under to Russia, because if Russia invades then it will bring about nuclear Armageddon?

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**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6288 "2022-06-20T15:22:52Z")

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Not in the least. NATO cannot surrender to Russia. But there are some posters on this board who seem to be looking forward to a nuclear exchange. I think we need to put that off as long as possible.

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**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6289 "2022-06-20T15:34:17Z")

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> [@Johnny\_L.A](#):
>
> I think we need to put that off as long as possible.

Please fail to make it seem inevitable.

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6290 "2022-06-20T15:35:13Z")

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I am not looking forward to nukes. I am looking forward, however, to a massive NATO conventional response that will sweep Russia out of Europe and Putin out of office. And Russia dutifully accepting defeat without pushing the red button.

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**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6291 "2022-06-20T15:49:58Z")

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If Russia tries to use military force to reopen a corridor to Kaliningrad it will be in everybody’s interests to keep it as a local conventional conflict. But there will be _huge_ amounts of sabre rattling and a risk of a misunderstanding or escalation that triggers a nuclear exchange. I don’t have any idea what that risk would be. Maybe 2% or 3%? But that’s not a wheel you’d really want to spin.

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**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6292 "2022-06-20T15:55:21Z")

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> [@Velocity](#):
>
> I am not looking forward to nukes. I am looking forward, however, to a massive NATO conventional response that will sweep Russia out of Europe and Putin out of office. And Russia dutifully accepting defeat without pushing the red button.

IMHO Putin doesn’t want to push the red button. Sure, he’ll rattle the saber, but that’s about the extent of it. Which is why he started with Ukraine rather than one of the Baltics. Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania would have been easier than Ukraine to defeat one on one in a conventional war, but Putin knows that it wouldn’t have remained a one on one conventional war. The end result would have been, as you say, either a conventional response that would have resulted in a massive Russian defeat, or the pushing of the red button. As much of a shitshow as Ukraine has been, from the Russian perspective the current state of affairs is obviously better than either one of those options.

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6293 "2022-06-20T17:49:15Z")

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The soldiers holding the Ukrainian lines are facing unimaginable horrors. It sounds more like France in WWI. Except the trench systems probably aren’t as sophisticated in offering protection from artillery barrages.

Guardian blog

> [@](#):
>
> ## Russia ‘orders troops to reach Luhansk borders by Sunday’, says Ukraine
> 
> **Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, said Russia has gathered almost all of its forces to storm the settlements near the embattled eastern city of Sievierodonetsk.**
> 
> “Decisive” battles are taking place in the area of Sievierodonetsk with the Russian leadership aiming to reach the borders of the Luhansk region by the end of the week, Maliar was quoted by the Ukrainian News Agency as saying.
> 
> Maliar told reporters:
> 
> > The Russian army has thrown virtually all its forces and means in order to storm the settlements around. They seek to break through the defences of our troops and are trying to encircle the grouping of our troops, which is carrying out the defence of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk.
> 
> Ukrainian troops are doing “everything possible” to hold its territory in order to prevent encirclement, she said, adding:
> 
> > But we must understand that the enemy has an advantage in armament, so the situation is extremely difficult now, and at night and today, there is a maximum intensity of these decisive battles.

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**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6294 "2022-06-20T18:28:03Z")

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I think it is also because all of the post-Maidan Ukrainian leadership has somewhat tried to balance pro-West and pro-Russian sentiment, even as recently as the month before this war started, there was still decent pro-Russian sentiment in some parts of Ukraine. It’s one reason why choosing to fight a shooting war was so stupid, Russia lost some political ground in the country with Maidan, but there is little reason to suspect in future elections Russia couldn’t get friendly politicians elected. Both Poroshenko and Zelenskyy were both not really firebrand anti-Russians. Poroshenko had made most of his wealth in business dealings with Russia, and Zelenskyy’s native tongue is Russian.

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6295 "2022-06-20T20:38:47Z")

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First time I’ve heard Zelenskyy speak English. There’s a heavy accident but I can understand him. He would improve a lot if he spoke English every day.

> **[Ben Stiller speaks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv](https://www.nbcnews.com/video/ben-stiller-speaks-with-ukrainian-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-in-kyiv-142467141949)**
>
> Hollywood actor Ben Stiller met the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy while on a visit to Kyiv. The pair discussed the ongoing war and the importance of media coverage.

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**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6296 "2022-06-20T21:06:01Z")

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> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> First time I’ve heard Zelenskyy speak English. There’s a heavy accident but I can understand him.

It could have been a potential banana skin.

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6297 "2022-06-20T21:09:14Z")

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Lol just like me tripping over auto-correct.

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**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\
**Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6298 "2022-06-20T23:45:25Z")

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> Excuse me, Prime Minister, a hot potato can’t become a banana skin. If you don’t do anything a hot potato will merely become a cold potato.

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [June 21, 2022, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6299 "2022-06-21T01:15:34Z")

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Another Russian Colonel goes down. Interesting footage of two helicopters. One uses flares to escape.

The death has been acknowledged by a Russian source.

I remember Russian pilots going down in Afghanistan. A early use of Western supplied Sams. I can’t recall if total losses were ever acknowledged.

> **[Putin loses 55th colonel 'as helicopter hit by missile' and crashes in fireball](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-loses-55th-colonel-27277914)**
>
> Well-decorated Lieutenant Colonel Sergey Gundorov, 51, was struck near Volnovakha in the Donbas, making him the 55th officer of the same rank slaughtered by Ukrainian forces since the start of the war

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**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\
**Post date:** [June 21, 2022, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6300 "2022-06-21T01:39:22Z")

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Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov put his Nobel Peace Prize medal up for auction, with proceeds to go to Ukrainian child refugee relief.

It did rather well.

> **[Nobel sold for Ukrainian kids shatters record at $103.5M](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-dmitry-muratov-journalists-9a6bb6e61350e1bb8221924c1bfe30a3)**
>
> NEW YORK (AP) — The Nobel Peace Prize auctioned off by Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov to raise money for Ukrainian child refugees sold Monday night for $103.5 million, shattering the old record for a Nobel.

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**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\
**Post date:** [June 21, 2022, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6301 "2022-06-21T04:37:45Z")

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A Russian pilot captured and interrogated by Ukrainians, revealed that he was a mercenary. It has been reported in that past that the Wagner Group is a private army answering to Putin.

> **[Captured Russian pilot turns out to be Wagner mercenary](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/20/7353543/)**
>
> ROMAN PETRENKO – MONDAY, 20 JUNE 2022, 09:46

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Mr.Duality](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.duality/32/4098_2.png) [@Mr.Duality](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Duality)\
**Post date:** [June 21, 2022, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6302 "2022-06-21T13:40:59Z")

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Agreed. Get Alexander Vindman’s book. He is an expert on Ukraine and Russia. The Russian government has an extensive history of trying to get what it wants through bullying and intimidation.

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**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [June 21, 2022, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6303 "2022-06-21T14:53:31Z")

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> [@Johnny\_L.A](#):
>
> Or just what Putin needs to launch nuclear strikes.

Why does Putin need anything besides evil to launch nuclear strikes. “Oh, if we hold our mouth wrong, Putin will nuke X” implies we have some control over Putin. We don’t.

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**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\
**Post date:** [June 21, 2022, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6304 "2022-06-21T16:43:33Z")

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> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> Why does Putin need anything besides evil to launch nuclear strikes.

There is zero chance that Ukraine by itself will launch a counter-invasion against non-Crimean Russia. They could, if Russian forces absolutely collapse in non-Crimean Ukraine, try to retake Crimea. Putin could respond with tactical nuclear strikes against the Ukrainian forces. That would earn him and Russia global condemnation, sanctions, and pariah status far worse than they are already experiencing. But it would not ignite a nuclear response from the US, UK or France.

If NATO armed forces decide to intervene in Ukraine in significant numbers, they will surely be seeking a decisive victory. Such a victory would put a force capable of invading Russia on Russia’s doorstep. If we’re considering that Putin might order a tactical nuclear attack to defend Crimea, then how much more likely is it that he would order a tactical nuclear response to defend Russia? And if Russia is utilizing nuclear attacks, will NATO respond with nuclear counterattacks? If so, do the escalative counter-responses stop short of ICBM’s?

Western support for Ukraine is necessary and noble. Ukraine was in an existential fight for survival and although the existential threat has diminished, they still face severe territorial loss. The west should continue to support Ukraine to prevent that loss. However, they must also recognise the severe hazard of becoming an existential threat to Putin/Russia.

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