# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 334
**Author:** ![Sauron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce7236/32.png) [@Sauron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sauron)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2022, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6725 "2022-07-22T14:58:35Z")
If the flow of material from NATO stopped completely as of today, I think Russia could probably overwhelm Ukraine from strictly a military perspective in … maybe a year. More likely 18 months to two years. My reasoning: Russia has literally millions of Cold-War era (and probably WWII-era) artillery shells, and their military doctrine for this conflict has devolved to their WWII “sweet spot”: Stay back and bomb the crap out of territory with shells, then move up and occupy the blasted land. Rinse and repeat. With no continued influx of war material, Ukraine wouldn’t be able to resist that military version of an unstoppable force. However, there are several problems with that scenario: 1. **NATO support is likely to increase as Russia moves west, not decrease**. Several NATO countries (most notably Poland and Turkey, but others as well) will see the Russian advance more and more as an existential threat, and will ratchet up their support accordingly – especially as Russian artillery begins to move within striking range of their borders. 2. **Russia’s economy will begin experiencing serious issues, if not collapse completely, if the war continues for that length of time**. Many folks have complained about the myriad array of sanctions not having an effect yet, without understanding how such sanctions work. The monetary bite (freezing billions of dollars in foreign accounts) was immediate, but could be offset with fairly predictable moves by the Russian economic leaders. The long-term effects in areas like technology and infrastructure will take a little more time to be felt, but once they really start to kick in they’ll create a cascading effect, e.g. the lack of maintenance and repair material for Russia’s oil / gas industry will begin to significantly impact what the amount they can deliver to the few countries who would even consider buying it, which will further drive down their gross national product. Hyperinflation is a very real possibility in this scenario, which will be exacerbated by Russia’s inability to borrow money internationally (because they’ve defaulted on bond payments). 3. **Along with the domestic economy, Russia’s military economy will fracture.** Morale isn’t great right now among Russian soldiers anyway, but if the state begins to have issues with paying them (or their families), desertion – and, one hopes, open rebellion – in some areas will seriously degrade their ability to wage war. 4. **Insurgency in occupied Ukrainian lands will grow**. Not only will this cause logistics issues for Russia, it will also impact their ability to continue their advance. Soldiers who have to patrol and guard key military sites / equipment in rear areas are soldiers who can’t be used at the front. Not to mention the debilitating effect such guerilla tactics have on morale. 5. **Russia cannot maintain its fiction that things with the war are “going according to plan” domestically as the scale of their losses becomes more and more apparent over time**. Russia has simply stopped reporting the number of troops killed or wounded, and the amount of equipment it has lost, to its residents. This subterfuge can be maintained for some time, but even now cracks are beginning to show in this approach. As more and more Russians are killed – and as Ukraine begins some limited counterattacks in the south – the ability of the Kremlin to maintain their fictional view of the war within Russia will be lessened, if not entirely broken. 6. **Russia’s status as a major exporter of military hardware is going to nosedive**. Leading purchasers of Russian weapons (notably India, and to some extent China) have seen how poorly the equipment has fared. Future orders for such items (particularly jets and other high-ticket weapons) will be negatively impacted – creating further disruption in the Russian economy. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2022, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6726 "2022-07-22T15:43:17Z")
> [@Sauron](#): > > Morale isn’t great right now among Russian soldiers anyway I’ve been thinking lately of [this scene](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4kQvkvGi9M) from _Doctor Zhivago_. Propaganda can carry the day only when the vast majority believe it. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2022, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6727 "2022-07-22T19:22:14Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > I am far from sure that a long attritional war will favor Ukraine over time as many are claiming. This only holds true so long as they get a steady and continual infusion of war materiel. Please convince me otherwise. Russia is bleeding assets and skilled labor. Ukraine is being fed better equipment from sources that are better funded. Chechnya may enter the fray on a second front. I don’t think Russia can sustain this into Winter. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2022, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6728 "2022-07-22T19:26:13Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Chechnya may enter the fray on a second front. Against Russia? I thought they were basically a puppet regime? ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2022, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6729 "2022-07-22T19:33:39Z")
From a BBC article: > UK armed forces minister James Heappey and Ukraine’s deputy defence minister Volodymyr Havrylov have visited the soldiers and sailors training…in Scotland, the MoD said. > > Mr Heappey said: "The intensity with which the Ukrainian soldiers and sailors are training is something to behold. > > “They work with the focus of troops who know they’ll be fighting in a war in just a few short weeks’ time.” No shit Sherlock. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2022, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6730 "2022-07-22T20:31:08Z")
> [@Folacin](#): > > Against Russia? I thought they were basically a puppet regime? Against the puppet regime. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2022, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6731 "2022-07-22T20:54:14Z")
Ignore that this is Fox, it’s a good analysis of the new developments in Chechnya and the potential impact on Ukraine. > **[Putin faces second war front as Chechens threaten new offensive in Russia](https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-faces-second-war-front-chechens-threaten-new-offensive-russia)** > > Russian President Vladimir Putin could be facing a second war front as Chechen forces opposed to his war in Ukraine threaten to launch their own offensive. The short version is, Chechens have been chafing under Russian rule forever, with simmering tensions breaking into periodic warfare over the decades, and Russian soldiers brutally stomping out any resistance. At the moment a Putin-approved strongman is in charge (the son of the original strongman appointed by Putin), and the resistance has retreated to the fringes. But some of the Russian-backed military that was holding the status quo has been shifted to Ukraine, and the resistance leader is saying he’ll take advantage of this as an opportunity to attack the Russian puppet government. Some analysts think this may be something like a feint, that it’s intended to distract Moscow and force them to bring their Chechen fighters back home to keep the peace, making the fight easier for Ukraine, with a Russian loss there ultimately destabilizing Putin’s regime and serving the interest of Chechen independence in the long run. But if Moscow doesn’t take that bait, the Chechen resistance could make good on the bluff and attack the weakened puppet government, creating a second huge headache for Putin. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2022, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6732 "2022-07-22T23:56:22Z")
Grain deal sounds promising. The checks and monitoring will be cumbersome at first. It should quickly become routine. I see they’ve agreed the ports loading grain won’t be targeted. But Ukraine has to get the grain to the port. The crop has to be harvested and shipped. None of that route is protected. I expect that Russia will try to get maps of the corridor through the minefields. > **[Ukraine and Russia sign UN-backed deal to restart grain exports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/22/ukraine-russia-sign-un-backed-deal-restart-grain-exports)** > > Shipping of millions of tonnes from blockaded Black Sea ports could avert global food crisis > [@](#): > > - A coalition of Turkish, Ukrainian and UN staff will monitor the loading of grain on to vessels in Ukrainian ports before navigating a pre-planned route through the Black Sea, which remains heavily mined by Ukrainian and Russian forces. > - Ukrainian pilot vessels will guide commercial vessels transporting the grain in order to navigate the mined areas around the coastline using a map of safe channels provided by the Ukrainian side. > - The vessels will then cross the Black Sea towards Turkey’s Bosphorus strait while being closely monitored by a joint coordination centre in Istanbul, containing representatives from the UN, Ukraine, Russia and Turkey. > - Ships entering Ukraine will be inspected under the supervision of the same joint coordination centre to ensure they are not carrying weapons or items that could be used to attack the Ukrainian side. > - The Russian and Ukrainian sides have agreed to withhold attacks on any of the commercial vessels or ports engaged in the initiative to transport vital grain, while UN and Turkish monitors will be present in Ukrainian ports in order to demarcate areas protected by the accord. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2022, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6733 "2022-07-23T14:35:26Z")
> “This is all you have to know about “agreements” with the Russians. Explosions in the seaport of #Odesa. One day after the agreement with #Turkey and #UN was signed re export of #Ukraine’s #grain under which #Russia has committed not to shell the port,” Ukrainian parliament member Solomiia Bobrovska tweeted… > > “That’s all you need to know about deals with Russia,” Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas added on Twitter. [https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/23/europe/russia-ukraine-odesa-strike-grain-exports-intl/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/23/europe/russia-ukraine-odesa-strike-grain-exports-intl/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2022, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6734 "2022-07-23T14:46:52Z")
You have to wonder how much a diplomatic arrangement with Russia means to anyone outside the Russian foreign service. I’m pretty sure the military forces give zero fucks. Nothing changes on the ground until the order is given, and I don’t see Putin being in any hurry. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2022, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6735 "2022-07-23T15:04:25Z")
Russia isn’t even smart about it. I thought they’d bomb the crap out of the trains and highways carrying grain **and** still follow the agreement. Don’t bomb the ports. They’re too stupid to use their own negotiated loophole. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2022, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6736 "2022-07-23T15:25:13Z")
Unless it’s some attempt to play 4D chess by Putin I suspect this just highlights the poor discipline and awful communication within the Russian armed service. ---
**Author:** ![lum\_s\_husband](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lum_s_husband/32/3698_2.png) [@lum\_s\_husband](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lum_s_husband)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2022, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6737 "2022-07-23T15:27:08Z")
If only ~~the Czar~~ Putin knew! ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2022, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6738 "2022-07-23T16:15:16Z")
> [@gnoitall](#): > > You have to wonder how much a diplomatic arrangement with Russia means to anyone outside the Russian foreign service. Based on the resignation letter from Boris Bondarev, the Russian diplomat who resigns in May, my guess is that not even their own diplomats think their arrangements mean anything. > [@](#): > > “I regret to admit that over all these twenty years the level of lies and unprofessionalism in the work of the Foreign Ministry has been increasing all the time. However, in most recent years, this has become simply catastrophic. Instead of unbiased information, impartial analysis and sober forecasting, there are propaganda clichés in the spirit of Soviet newspapers of the 1930s,” the post read. “Today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not about diplomacy. It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred. It serves interests of few, the very few people thus contributing to further isolation and degradation of my country. Russia no longer has allies, and there is no one to blame but its reckless and ill-conceived policy.” [https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/europe/russian-diplomat-resigns-ukraine-war-intl/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/europe/russian-diplomat-resigns-ukraine-war-intl/index.html) According to Voice of America, there are reports the Kremlin has ordered an internal review of its diplomatic corps and has a list of “questionables”. VoA cautions it has not been able to confirm that report: > [@](#): > > “This is a very bad sign for the Kremlin because they were… absolutely sure in loyalty of their Russian foreign office, because usually its men are very loyal. I think that he (Bondarev) reflects the general emotion of many of his colleagues in the Foreign Office, but it doesn’t mean that they are ready to follow,” Solovei told VOA. > > Moscow has since conducted an urgent review of its diplomatic staff, according to Solovei. > > “There was a report made by Russian security to the president. And according to the report, there was a list which consists of a hundred persons in the Russian Foreign Office, which are potentially disloyal to the Kremlin. And that’s something very, very new. > > “There will be more control outside the country and maybe some who are on the list, who were included in the list as potentially disloyal, will be removed from their embassies outside or outside the country to Moscow,” Solovei said. VOA is unable to independently verify the existence of such a list. > **[Analysts: Russia Embarrassed by Diplomat's Resignation But Knows Fear Keeps...](https://www.voanews.com/a/analysts-russia-embarrassed-by-diplomat-resignation-but-knows-fear-keeps-others-in-check/6590486.html)** > > Russian UN diplomat n Geneva Boris Bondarev quit over his country’s invasion of Ukraine, now fears for his safety ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2022, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6739 "2022-07-23T16:26:21Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Unless it’s some attempt to play 4D chess by Putin I suspect this just highlights the poor discipline and awful communication within the Russian armed service. He’s playing Russian Oligarch except that only works within Russian borders. The might of his military is primarily nuclear. The amount of money consumed by mega weapons has left him with a combination of large numbers of outdated equipment and a handful of high-tech assets that can’t easily be replaced. With the sanctions against Russia the time to replace those assets will take longer. In short, time is against Putin and an army of cannon fodder new recruits. Every day that passes he loses good assets he can’t replace against an enemy that is getting newer/better precision assets with better range. At some point Ukraine will establish control of the skies that is sufficient to deny Russian troops any coverage and that will be the end of it. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2022, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6740 "2022-07-24T05:16:42Z")
Interesting strategy. What are the Ukrainians up to? Is Russian communication so bad they don’t know the status of their occupied territory? Whatever helps Ukraine works for me. That includes not reporting gains from the counter-offense. I would guess small rural villages might not have any occupying forces. Ukraine could roll through unopposed. They may not leave troops there either. ISW: [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-23) > [@](#): > > **Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visibility on the progress and tempo of the counteroffensive will likely be limited and lag behind events.** Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan stated on July 23 that Ukrainian forces have seized unspecified settlements in Kherson Oblast but called on Ukrainian civilians to remain silent on the progress of the counteroffensive until Ukrainian authorities release official statements.[1] Foreign Policy National Security Reporter Jack Detsch reported on July 22 that an unspecified senior US defense official stated that Ukrainian forces have recaptured unspecified “portions of Russian-occupied villages” in Kherson over the past week of July 15-22, indicating that Ukrainian forces have made some unspecified territorial advances along frontlines.[2] The area between the front line and Kherson City is rural and primarily composed of small settlements that are less likely to report on force movements and engagements, allowing control-of-terrain in this area to change without evidence appearing in open-source reporting. Russian authorities additionally have no incentive to report on Ukrainian territorial gains. The informational dynamics that allow ISW to report on Russian offensive operations with relatively little lag are thus inverted in this situation. ISW will report on the progress of any Ukrainian counteroffensives to the best of its ability within these constraints. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2022, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6741 "2022-07-25T02:52:34Z")
Several posters here have been saying basically the same thing. HIMARS are making a significant difference. It’s oddly satisfying to imagine Russian crews endlessly moving equipment to avoid HIMARS targeting. Site: [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-24) I added bolding. > [@](#): > > Moscow Calling notably defined the arrival of HIMARS as a distinct turning point in the war and stated that previously provided Western weapons systems (such as NLAWs, Javelins, Stingers, and Bayraktars) did very little against Russian artillery bombardment (they are not designed or intended to counter artillery attack), but that **HIMARS changed everything for Russian capabilities in Ukraine.[8] Moscow Calling strongly insinuated that recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian warehouses, communication hubs, and rear bases are having a devastating and potentially irreversible impact on the development of future Russian offensives.**[9] > > This post is consistent with previous reports from Western defense officials that Russian troops are being forced to engage in various HIMARS mitigation tactics on the battlefield, including camouflage measures and constantly changing the location of equipment groupings.[10] These mitigation tactics are impeding Russian forces from conducting the massive artillery barrages that they have widely employed over the course of the war, as evidenced by NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data that shows consistently fewer observed heat anomalies over the frontline in Donbas since the introduction of HIMARS to Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2022, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6742 "2022-07-25T03:32:49Z")
It’s crazy how effective they are considering how few we sent. Last I saw (a week ago?) we had promised to send another four to raise the total from 12 to 16. I wonder how many HIMARS are in the US arsenal. Do other countries make them? ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2022, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6743 "2022-07-25T04:00:15Z")
Ukraine has received some M270 MLRS units from the UK and others as well. The M270 is the precursor to HIMARS. It has double the rocket capacity (uses all the same ammo types) but is tracked and somewhat slower. Still has a max speed of 64km/h, though, so not immobile by any stretch. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2022, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/6744 "2022-07-25T06:31:15Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > I wonder how many HIMARS are in the US arsenal. 400+ > [@EllisDee](#): > > Do other countries make them? No, but others have them - 100+. ~540 have been built and manufacturing is ongoing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=333) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=335)