# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 353
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2022, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7105 "2022-08-14T00:34:05Z")
Very pretty dam in California. I wouldn’t know how to bomb the road and not the dam. I doubt heavy semi’s are allowed. I guess all out war makes Ukraine try risky actions. [![](https://i.pinimg.com/736x/3c/bd/12/3cbd12d8227e1b28f90ed4a8192252e0--vintage-postcards-s.jpg) ](https://i.pinimg.com/736x/3c/bd/12/3cbd12d8227e1b28f90ed4a8192252e0--vintage-postcards-s.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2022, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7106 "2022-08-14T00:44:56Z")
> [@Kedikat](#): > > The Russian explanations of it being an accident only add the tiniest percentage of doubt. I think you mean “the Russian explanations of it being an accident confirm unequivocally that it was Ukranian action”. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2022, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7107 "2022-08-14T03:35:55Z")
My guess for the weapn that hit the airbase in Crimea: > **[MGM-140 ATACMS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS)** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is a surface-to-surface missile manufactured by the U.S. defense company Lockheed Martin. It has a range of up to 190 miles (300 km), with solid propellant, and is 13 feet (4.0 m) high and 24 inches (610 mm) in diameter. The ATACMS can be fired from the tracked M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), and the wheeled M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). > An ATACMS launch contain... That rocket has the range, it can be fired out of an MLRS or a HIMARS launcher, and Ukraine has both. The U.S., South Korea and Turkey all have ATACMS. It’s interesting - from the outside it looks like a 6 tube MLRS. But inside it’s just one big-ass rocket. So they could be brought into the Ukraine looking like standard MLRS loads. If Russia assesses that as an ATCMS attack, it puts a lot of their assets at risk and they’ll have to respond by relocating them. The U.S. is replacing ATACMS soon. They might not mind expending some current inventory. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2022, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7108 "2022-08-14T03:51:04Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > How do you damage a bridge on top of a dam? Without risking the dam and flooding if things go wrong? Looking on Google maps, maybe they took out what looks like a bridge over a lock (? or possibly a spillway) on the south bank? You’d want to be pretty confident in your accuracy, because I expect the dam failing would result in catastrophic flooding in Kherson. https://maps.google.com/maps?ll=46.7742991,33.3737498&z=17&output=embed&dg=ntvb ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2022, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7109 "2022-08-14T03:58:30Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > That rocket has the range, it can be fired out of an MLRS or a HIMARS launcher, and Ukraine has both. The U.S., South Korea and Turkey all have ATACMS. They also has not been officially supplied to Ukraine yet, though Ukraine has asked for them. It is unconfirmed if they have any ]yet, but there have been assorted rumblings in the last week or two that the U.S. may soon send some. It’s entirely possible, but there are a few options. Cardigan up above linked to a YouTube blogger who made a fairly reasoned argument based on analysis of commercial satellite photos of the before and after site, that a missile strike seemed less likely than a commando operation. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2022, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7110 "2022-08-14T05:06:36Z")
More confirmation Russian forces are cutoff in Kherson. I added bolding. The head rats are already jumping off the ship. ISW Aug 13 [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-13) > [@](#): > > Russian forces cannot support mechanized operations at scale without a reliable GLOC. Bringing ammunition, fuel, and heavy equipment sufficient for offensive or even large-scale defensive operations across pontoon ferries or by air is impractical if not impossible. If Ukrainian forces have disrupted all three bridges and can prevent the Russians from restoring any of them to usability for a protracted period then Russian forces on the west bank of the Dnipro will likely lose the ability to defend themselves against even limited Ukrainian counterattacks. > > Indicators of degraded Russian supplies resulting from the disruption of Russian GLOCs over the Dnipro River would include: observed fuel and ammunition shortages among Russian forces in western Kherson Oblast; abandoned Russian vehicles; decreased intensity and, finally, cessation of Russian ground assaults and artillery attacks; possibly increased instances of Russian looting; increased reports from Russian soldiers about supply shortfalls; increased numbers of Russian prisoners of war taken by Ukrainian forces; and an observed absence of new heavy machinery transported to western Kherson. Such indicators could take days or weeks to observe depending on how much Russian forces have been able to stockpile supplies on the west bank of the Dnipro and how successful Ukrainian forces are at finding and destroying those stockpiles while keeping the bridges inoperable. > **Ukrainian Mykolaiv Oblast Head Vitaly Kim reported that unspecified Russian military command elements left upper Kherson Oblast and relocated to the left bank of the Dnipro River, suggesting that the Russian military leadership is concerned about being trapped on the wrong side of the river.** ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2022, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7111 "2022-08-14T05:09:50Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > GLOC G-induced Loss Of Consciousness? ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2022, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7112 "2022-08-14T05:12:41Z")
Ground Line Of Communication Kinda like yours though. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2022, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7113 "2022-08-14T05:12:50Z")
😉 Could be. It’s ISW speak for ground lines of communication. I’m not sure why they used GLOC in regards to transporting fuel,heavy equipment and ammunition. That’s a supply chain issue caused by the damage to the bridges. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2022, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7114 "2022-08-14T05:49:02Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Kinda like yours though. I’ve only heard [G-LOC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-LOC) in aviation. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7115 "2022-08-15T03:27:42Z")
Russia doesn’t seem to be doing well at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7116 "2022-08-15T04:58:51Z")
> [@Kedikat](#): > > The Russian explanations of it being an accident only add the tiniest percentage of doubt. Right, because a careless fire related accident always causes craters at opposite ends of the airfield. ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7117 "2022-08-15T05:45:47Z")
Yeah. Before picture shows four widely separated buildings. After picture shows all four exploded. The wreckage remains in the berms, indicate the explosions were not chain reaction. But set off individually. ---
**Author:** ![Capn\_Carl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/838e76/32.png) [@Capn\_Carl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capn_Carl)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7118 "2022-08-15T06:27:37Z")
So where does the “tiniest percentage of doubt” come from? ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7119 "2022-08-15T08:00:43Z")
ISW has a interesting breakdown of Russian troops and where they’re positioned. It’s an indication of their priorities. For example, The Izyum-Slovyansk axis is increasingly manned by recently formed volunteer battalions that likely have very low combat power. That area is obviously not a major concern at this time. The analysis is too long to quote and the maps are needed to fully understand. I am surprised ISW has such detailed information. They have said before they geo locate data from Russian cell phones. > **[Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-14)** > > Russian and proxy troops in Ukraine are likely operating in roughly six groups of forces oriented on Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharkiv Oblast; along the Izyum-Slovyansk line; the Siversk-Lysychansk area; Bakhmut; the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area;... ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7120 "2022-08-15T11:05:28Z")
> [@Capn\_Carl](#): > > So where does the “tiniest percentage of doubt” come from? In the multiverse, anything that can happen will happen? Four independent accidental explosions at the same military base in the middle of a war are extremely unlikely but not impossible. Of course: > [@Ian Fleming](#): > > Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action. ---
**Author:** ![Hypno-Toad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b2d939/32.png) [@Hypno-Toad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hypno-Toad)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7121 "2022-08-15T12:18:07Z")
I wonder if all this buildup on the Kherson area is just a smoke screen for an attack elsewhere. A story I was reading made a big deal out of the Russian command staff pulling back across the river. They described it as the commanders abandoning their troops. This certainly shows a lack of Russian aggression in that area. So it could be that the Ukr army has just been bluffing in order to tamp down that sector while they prepare to thrust into those noobs stationed in Izyum-Slovyansk. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7122 "2022-08-15T12:42:32Z")
Multiple news sources are carrying this story. A posted photo by Russian war correspondent Sergei Sreda gave away information on Wagner’s HQ. HIMARS eliminated the HQ. > **[Headquarters of Putin's mercenary Wagner group reportedly hit in...](https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/08/15/headquarters-of-putins-mercenary-wagner-group-reportedly-hit-in-russian-occupied-ukraine/)** > > The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly hit the headquarters of the Russian mercenary Wagner group, in Russian-occupied Ukraine, specifically in ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7123 "2022-08-15T12:42:38Z")
The Russian command withdrawing to the opposite side of the Dneiper river from Kherson suggests this is a pretty big deal. You likely heard about how Ukraine has repeatedly hit the three bridges which connect Kherson to Russian supply lines from Crimea. [Ukrainian Army Attacks Kherson Bridges, Destroys Russian Bases in Melitopol - KyivPost - Ukraine’s Global Voice](https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/ukrainian-army-attacks-kherson-bridges-destroys-russian-bases-in-melitopol.html) The bridges have been either destroyed or damaged badly enough that Russians can no longer get heavy weapons and support across the bridges. The Russians have tried repeatedly to repair the bridges but have been thwarted by further Ukrainian attacks (via HIMARS and other artillery). The Russians have also set up a sort of pontoon-ferry as a work-around to get limited equipment across, but it’s not an adequate means to get the supplies across needed to support sustained combat. By moving their command across the river, it’s an admission that they’re on the ‘wrong side’ of the river and don’t want to get trapped and isolated. ---
**Author:** ![Hypno-Toad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b2d939/32.png) [@Hypno-Toad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hypno-Toad)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2022, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7124 "2022-08-15T12:47:22Z")
Could one consider the Russians on the wrong side of the river to be effectively besieged? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=352) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=354)