# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 358
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2022, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7205 "2022-08-18T23:04:49Z")
Three Mile Island and Chernobyl were accidents. The Russians are deliberately putting this power plant at risk. First by using it as military base. Now it appears they are going to screw around with the controls. Maybe send power to Russia or totally shut down the plant. Do they have expert technical support to do it safely? The two big accidents were directly caused by workers incompetence. They had errors on their console and didn’t respond correctly. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2022, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7206 "2022-08-18T23:15:33Z")
> [@gnoitall](#): > > You’re thinking of Chornobyl. Not the same kind of reactor, with a different failure mode I hope your right. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2022, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7207 "2022-08-18T23:18:54Z")
I hope I’m right too. But I mentioned Three Mile Island for a reason. Zhaporizhzia is in the same general class of reactor as TMI. By basic design characteristics, safer even than the Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors, which were Boiling Water Reactors. (Safer than Chornobyl, less safe than PWRs.) ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2022, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7208 "2022-08-18T23:30:24Z")
We’re in uncharted territory. There doesn’t seem to be any contingency plans for a military take over of a nuclear power plant. I have read security at the plant prepares for possible terrorism. They are supposed to be prepared to stop a small force of men. No one expected Vlad to show up with a thousand men and tanks. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2022, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7209 "2022-08-18T23:35:10Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > If Russia has to mobilize in ANY numbers beyond what they have now to defeat (relatively) tiny little Ukraine, then they have absolutely zero hope of defeating NATO on a conventional battlefield. At this point, I’m not even sure they could seriously inconvenience NATO if the conflict stays conventional. NATO vs Russia would be laughable slaughter. F-22s would get hundreds of kills, Russia would be wiped like a dish rag, it would be like Gulf War I but 4x faster. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2022, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7210 "2022-08-18T23:47:16Z")
Right up until the nukes fly. You can’t forget them. Anyway, what would NATO do with Russia if it got it? That would be an administrative nightmare nobody in their right mind would voluntarily sign up for. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7211 "2022-08-19T00:36:01Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > NATO vs Russia would be laughable slaughter. F-22s would get hundreds of kills, Russia would be wiped like a dish rag, it would be like Gulf War I but 4x faster. Yeah, that would be about the size of it. In war games against the F-22 and F-35, I understand the non stealth fighter pilots describe the experience as “boring”. They don’t realize anyone is nearby, and they’re just killed in the simulation. NATO developing air superiority would most likely be a short process. However, that does remind me of the overconfidence that led Russia into it’s current debacle. Only the Israelis have used their 5th gen fighters in war. They’ve appeared to perform well, but their opponent wasn’t Russia. On top of that: > [@DesertDog](#): > > Right up until the nukes fly. You can’t forget them. Yes, that’s the thing that keeps us from getting directly involved. If Russia wasn’t armed with nukes, Ukraine would probably have gotten a no-fly zone in place by Feb 25th and would have had others’ troops and equipment backing them up shortly afterward. But at this point, if Russia is going to resort to nukes to win a war with NATO, it will probably lead with them on day one. > [@DesertDog](#): > > Anyway, what would NATO do with Russia if it got it? That would be an administrative nightmare nobody in their right mind would voluntarily sign up for. Well, if they don’t resort to nukes on day one, I’d say NATO’s reaction wouldn’t be to take over Russia. I figure once there wasn’t any Russian hardware within NATO’s borders, they would state something like “Any of Russia’s military hardware or personnel within 300 miles of the borders of a NATO country is subject to destruction at NATO’s discretion” Because while trying to destroy them is an obvious reason for them to nuke you, it’s harder to justify if you’re just making sure they don’t continue invading you. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7212 "2022-08-19T01:48:43Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > Anyway, what would NATO do with Russia if it got it? That would be an administrative nightmare nobody in their right mind would voluntarily sign up for. Send in the ghost of George Marshall or Douglas MacArthur to rebuild Russia (or the contemporary equivalent of someone given similar authority) the way we did with Germany and Japan after WWII. We had a small scale opportunity to do that in the early 90s, but Bill Clinton screwed that up. Either way, the whole nukes flying thing means that’s never going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7213 "2022-08-19T14:12:32Z")
More information is coming out about Russian plans at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. It sounds very risky and probably not well planned. Guardian blog > [@](#): > > Ukraine’s state nuclear power firm has said it fears that Russia plans to switch off the functioning power units at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which in normal times provides about one-fifth of the country’s electricity. > > If the plant stopped generating electricity, its technicians would have to rely on backup power systems to continue cooling the nuclear reactors, which may raise the risk of accidents. > > “The Russian military is looking for suppliers of fuel for diesel generators, which must be turned on after the shutdown of power units and in the absence of external power supply for nuclear-fuel cooling systems,” Energoatom said in a statement. > > Ukrainian military intelligence had warned earlier this week that Moscow appeared to be planning a “provocation” at the plant. It has controlled the site since March and stationed troops and military equipment there, leading to urgent calls for it to be demilitarised, including from the UN and [Nato](https://www.theguardian.com/world/nato). > > Even if the reactors remain intact, however, Russia may plan to weaponise the plant simply by disconnecting it. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7214 "2022-08-19T16:14:20Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > It sounds very risky and probably not well planned. It seems a hallmark of Russian strategy these days. I’m not sure why they can’t simply disconnect the connections to the rest of the grid so as to let the plant continue to generate power for its internal use i.e. pumping coolant water. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7215 "2022-08-19T16:41:30Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > I’m not sure why they can’t simply disconnect the connections to the rest of the grid Cynically, I think the threat of an unfortunate event is the real point of the whole shameful exercise. “That’s a lovely nuclear plant you’ve got there. It would be such a shame if anything… _unfortunate_… were to happen to it.” ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7216 "2022-08-19T17:08:23Z")
Maybe turning it off is the first step to disconnecting it? ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7217 "2022-08-19T17:52:17Z")
Wow, that’s the most intensne 🔥 I’ve seen yet. Russia must be havings fits finding ways to hide their ammo dumps. > **[Russia: huge fire at ammunition depot near border with Ukraine – video](https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/aug/19/russia-huge-fire-at-ammunition-depot-near-border-with-ukraine-video)** > > People were evacuated from two Russian villages after a fire at a munitions depot near the Ukrainian border in Belgorod province   ---
**Author:** ![Hypno-Toad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b2d939/32.png) [@Hypno-Toad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hypno-Toad)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7218 "2022-08-19T18:07:43Z")
I imagine no one is happy when a convoy of trucks starts unloading crates of shells near their town even in the best of times. But I can only imagine how panic-inducing it must be to know that that massive pile of explosives is a huge target for incoming fire. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7219 "2022-08-19T18:33:41Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Wow, that’s the most intensne 🔥 I’ve seen yet. Russia must be havings fits finding ways to hide their ammo dumps. The video showed some Fire Trucks (?) a mile or so from this. Ummmm… I think I would be saying no. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7220 "2022-08-19T18:59:34Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > The video showed some Fire Trucks (?) a mile or so from this. Ummmm… I think I would be saying no. Yeah, even here in the good ole USA, fire departments will look at a fire and go 'Nope. We’ll work to prevent it spreading to other buildings, but that one is toast.". ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2022, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7221 "2022-08-19T19:56:06Z")
Big bada BOOM! ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7222 "2022-08-20T01:33:02Z")
> [@Folacin](#): > > Yeah, even here in the good ole USA, fire departments will look at a fire and go 'Nope. We’ll work to prevent it spreading to other buildings, but that one is toast." Ordinarily yes, some first responders don’t check their hazmat book for guidance and pay the price. A semi-recent amonium nitrate fertilizer explosion in West, TX took a few lives. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7223 "2022-08-20T03:57:20Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > “The Russian military is looking for suppliers of fuel for diesel generators, which must be turned on after the shutdown of power units and in the absence of external power supply for nuclear-fuel cooling systems,” Energoatom said in a statement. Maybe we should be staging mobile generators and pumps close enough to intercede in the event of a meltdown. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7224 "2022-08-20T08:19:47Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > That may be, but I would hope if we had 40,000 KIA in 6 months in some tom-fool of a military adventure, the public would be upset. The Russian public are almost certainly NOT being told what the death/wounded totals are. There is no free press and the propaganda machine is going full speed. > [@Cardigan](#): > > Every military on earth is going to school on this conflict and taking copious notes… SOP for any conflict, really. Sure, this one might be particularly interesting for various reasons, but competent militaries are always studying. > [@Horatius](#): > > The only things keeping Russia as a sovereign state is their nuclear deterrent, and if we could somehow overcome that, the economic cost of overrunning them. Why spend that much money to conquer Russia? Vast quantities of natural resources. Of course, there are also vast quantities of territory polluted by the extraction of same by regimes that didn’t care about the environmental and human cost to doing so. > [@What\_Exit](#): > > I sincerely hope somethings ends this fairly soon. Be careful what you wish for. There are, unfortunately, scenarios where this ends soon and the consequences are bad for _everyone_, everywhere. > [@aceplace57](#): > > Wouldn’t causing a nuclear power accident be the same as firing a nuclear missile? You would think so, but an “accident” can provide “plausible deniability” if it’s done in a manner where it’s not clear who was actually responsible for the mess. No, we don’t launch when there’s an accident, there’s no “nuclear deterrent” for _accidents_. Given this power plant is in the middle of a war zone a genuine accident is a possibility. > [@aceplace57](#): > > Russia seems determined to drag NATO into the conflict and start a war. It does seem that way. > [@aceplace57](#): > > Blowing up that plant would start WWIII. There’s no way severely irradiating half of Europe can be ignored. Depending on wind direction at the time it may wind up doing more damage to Russia than to Western Europe. Not that Putin cares. It also is NOT going to blow up like Chernobyl did, as already noted in post #7140. > [@aceplace57](#): > > The Russians are deliberately putting this power plant at risk. First by using it as military base. Now it appears they are going to screw around with the controls. Maybe send power to Russia or totally shut down the plant. Do they have expert technical support to do it safely? Russia does have competent nuclear power plant operators who have the technical knowledge and expertise to do that safely. However, there is no guarantee they will use those actual experts to do the deed. You’d think the Russians would also know better than to screw around in the Chernobyl Red Zone but apparently they issued stupid pills to the guys sent to take that over. My concern is someone with little to no understanding of nuclear hazards decides to sabotage the power plant, or shell it with artillery, thinking doing so isn’t much different than blowing up any other building or industrial complex. Given that the Ukrainians seem to be sensible about such things I expect if it does happen it would be the Russians being stupid again. > [@aceplace57](#): > > We’re in uncharted territory. There doesn’t seem to be any contingency plans for a military take over of a nuclear power plant. Because the US military pays people to think about unlikely scenarios I suspect there are some… but they have never been tested. No real-world data to work from. And then there’s the question of whether or not anything from elsewhere could be used to help the Ukrainians, who are the folks who currently are dealing with this up front. > [@Velocity](#): > > NATO vs Russia would be laughable slaughter. F-22s would get hundreds of kills, Russia would be wiped like a dish rag, it would be like Gulf War I but 4x faster. > [@DesertDog](#): > > Right up until the nukes fly. You can’t forget them. Right - the nukes are the wild card in this scenario. If not for them the situation would be much, much different. Every tin-pot dictator is taking notes about that. A LOT of nations will be wanting nukes after this, even more so than before. > [@Magiver](#): > > > [@aceplace57](#): > > > > “The Russian military is looking for suppliers of fuel for diesel generators, which must be turned on after the shutdown of power units and in the absence of external power supply for nuclear-fuel cooling systems,” Energoatom said in a statement. > > Maybe we should be staging mobile generators and pumps close enough to intercede in the event of a meltdown. There are emergency generators on site. My (imperfect) understanding is that fuel for those would be the crucial bottleneck. I very much doubt Russia would let us, or anyone else, intercede. Either they’ll handle it or nobody will. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=357) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=359)