# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 359
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 9:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7225 "2022-08-20T09:13:27Z")
Do the Russians actually believe they can come out ahead in a nuclear exchange? Maybe it’s because I’m a child of the 80s, but I’ve always been told that as soon as the nukes start flying, _everyone_ loses, equally. There’s a reason Israel calls using nuclear weapons the “Samson Option” - Samson, if your remember, did not survive tearing the temple down on his enemies. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7226 "2022-08-20T11:33:37Z")
It might be off-topic, but I pity the soldiers guarding sites where partisans seem to have struck. Either they are suspected of complicity or incompetence. Either way just folks doing their jobs I’d imagine. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7227 "2022-08-20T11:42:40Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Right - the nukes are the wild card in this scenario. If not for them the situation would be much, much different. I’m starting to think that with 40 years of technological progress, maybe it’s time to revisit Reagan’s Star Wars defense grid dream. It sure would be nice to be able to take all nukes off the table. Sort of the Israeli Iron Dome writ large. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7228 "2022-08-20T12:03:56Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Wouldn’t causing a nuclear power accident be the same as firing a nuclear missile? Both should be red line events that would require decisive action by NATO. To your first sentence: No. Not at all. As for your second sentence: No. They are very different events. “Causing a nuclear power accident” would be more in line with detonating a [dirty bomb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb), which would likely have nowhere near the destructive force of even a small nuclear weapon. > A dirty bomb is not a nuclear bomb. A nuclear bomb creates an explosion that is millions of times more powerful than a dirty bomb. The cloud of radiation from a nuclear bomb could spread thousands of square miles, whereas a dirty bomb’s radiation could be dispersed within a few blocks or miles of the explosion. (From the [Nuclear Regulatory Commission](https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/fs-dirty-bombs.html)) ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7229 "2022-08-20T12:04:43Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > I’m starting to think that with 40 years of technological progress, maybe it’s time to revisit Reagan’s Star Wars defense grid dream. It sure would be nice to be able to take all nukes off the table. > > Sort of the Israeli Iron Dome writ large. It’s not possible. Even with a perfect satellite defense (and we wouldn’t have that) it wouldn’t be possible. There’s submarine launched nukes that could hit coastal cities. Even barring that there’s the old fashioned method of driving them in and them setting them off rather than having to launch them with a missile. I’m sure there’s other also delivery methods that I’m missing. Sneaking in across the border. Launched by artillery or a modified tank. Disassembled then reassembled at the target. Who knows what else, but the Russians would surely get creative in that scenario. ETA. If the mechanisms for a nuclear winter are as I understand them, and if Russia only cares about dragging the world down to hell with them, they can probably succeed by nuking themselves, especially all that drying out taiga in Siberia. That has the benefit of making their enemies suffer while they get a quick death for themselves. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7230 "2022-08-20T12:27:23Z")
> [@from Guardian blog (as per aceplace57)](#): > > “The Russian military is looking for suppliers of fuel for diesel generators, which must be turned on after the shutdown of power units and in the absence of external power supply for nuclear-fuel cooling systems,” Energoatom said in a statement. Wouldn’t those emergency diesel generators run on the same fuel used by Russian trucks and armor? I mean—I’m sure the Russkies are running low on supplies and all but no matter who you are, you gotta lend a spot of diesel to help avoid a nuclear meltdown, right? That’s just good manners, ISTM. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7231 "2022-08-20T13:28:18Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > I mean—I’m sure the Russkies are running low on supplies and all but no matter who you are, you gotta lend a spot of diesel to help avoid a nuclear meltdown, right? That’s just good manners, ISTM. That was my thought - nuclear extortion. “Oh, the plant will melt down if you don’t send us 50,000 gallons of fuel by this afternoon!” “Where did the 50,000 gallons we sent yesterday go?” “…we lost it?” ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7232 "2022-08-20T13:58:41Z")
Interesting take on recent events. There was another drone strike against Navy hq in Sevastopol. No damage but it will be unsettling for the Russians far from the war. I see the need to keep up optimism and interest in the war. It’s a bit frustrating that my major source of war news is \*\*\*ISW, The Guardian and BBC. US news rarely breaks any War stories before the British news. \*\*\*ISW seems to be US staffed research. Cite [The Guardian view on war in Ukraine: fighting on multiple fronts | Editorial | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/19/the-guardian-view-on-war-in-ukraine-fighting-on-multiple-fronts) > [@](#): > > Additionally, wars are only partially fought on the battlefield. Kyiv also needs to kindle renewed purpose at home and maintain national unity as the relief and pride at holding off the initial Russian onslaught inevitably fades, and grinding [economic](https://ukranews.com/en/news/877020-economy-ministry-predicts-drop-in-gdp-by-35-40-in-2022), social and psychological pressures take their toll. It needs to rattle the confidence of Moscow – which this week replaced the commander of its Black Sea fleet – and lower the [morale of Russian forces](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/17/i-dont-see-justice-in-this-war-russian-soldier-exposes-rot-at-core-of-ukraine-invasion). Russia felt safe in Crimea, with its tourists sunning themselves on the beaches. Now they have been filmed [fleeing](https://www.newsweek.com/crimea-traffic-jam-explosion-air-base-russia-ukraine-1732845) the sands, with plumes of black smoke visible in the distance. > > Finally, Kyiv needs a sense of fresh momentum to maintain support elsewhere. The story of a plucky, courageous underdog staving off a vicious invasion was enough to create a wave of public and political support across [Europe](https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news) this spring. > As fuel prices keep rising and winter approaches, sympathy and solidarity will ebb, and politicians are likely to become correspondingly warier of extending their support to Ukraine and punishment of Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7233 "2022-08-20T14:56:51Z")
Washington Post is running a couple of articles on the Russain intelligence failure in their planning for Ukraine. Short version: they assumed that the Ukrainian government would easily collapse and Russians would be welcomed as heroes. Any information to the contrary was either ignored or not included in intelligence sent to the Kremlin, because it was known that the Kremlin didn’t want to hear it. Here’s the short article: > **[5 things you need to know about Russia’s intelligence failures ahead of the...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/19/intelligence-war-fsb-ukraine/)** > > Before the war, officials at the FSB assured the Kremlin that Ukraine’s government would fall quickly and deployed operatives to install a puppet regime. Since it may be paywalled, here’s the 5 takeaways it lists: 1. **A clandestine branch of Russia’s security service was deeply involved in the Kremlin’s failed war plan, assuring officials in Moscow that Ukraine’s government would fall quickly and deploying operatives to install a puppet regime.** 2. **FSB officers were so confident they would seize the levers of power in Kyiv that they spent the final days before the war arranging accommodations in the capital.** 3. **The FSB’s Ukraine department underwent a major expansion in the period leading up to the invasion, according to Ukrainian and Western security officials.** 4. **The FSB worked closely with prominent collaborators and lined up at least two pro-Russian governments-in-waiting.** 5. **Despite repeated failures, FSB leaders remain in their positions and the agency has regrouped, putting officers on three-month rotations in regions occupied by Russian forces.** And a link to a much longer, more detailed article, with 8 parts: > **[Russia’s spies misread Ukraine and misled Kremlin as war loomed](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/?itid=co_russias-gamble_1&itid=mc_magnet-russias-gamble_inline_1)** > > A trove of sensitive materials obtained by Ukrainian and other security services and reviewed by The Washington Post offers rare insight into the activities of the FSB, a sprawling security service that bears enormous responsibility for the failed... And finally, an article from back in April, which argues that the fault lies right at the top, with Putin’s own miscalculations about Ukraine: > **[Hubris and isolation led Vladimir Putin to misjudge Ukraine](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/11/putin-misjudged-ukraine-hubris-isolation/)** > > A hubristic and isolated leader, beset by biases and skewed information, pressed forward with the calamitous decision to invade Ukraine without consulting his full cohort of advisers. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7234 "2022-08-20T14:58:00Z")
one or two (somewhat relevant?) thoughts … > > > NEXTA @nexta\_tv (don’t know/endorse this person - but he is having a lot of good points in a very condensed statement) 2.) way more frightening: If things get really sour for the russians in Kherson … does anybody doubt they’d blow up this huge dam upstream and possibly drown the town and possibly tens or hundrets of 1000s of people … just “ **because** ” and there will be very little the ukr. could do to prevent this ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7235 "2022-08-20T15:15:01Z")
British forces blew 3 dams that provided power and water to the Ruhr industrial region of Germany. There’s a movie The Dam Busters about the mission. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7236 "2022-08-20T16:43:19Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > There are emergency generators on site. My (imperfect) understanding is that fuel for those would be the crucial bottleneck. > > I very much doubt Russia would let us, or anyone else, intercede. Either they’ll handle it or nobody will. If the shit hits the fan they won’t have a choice. ---
**Author:** ![thescrr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac8455/32.png) [@thescrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thescrr)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7237 "2022-08-20T16:50:27Z")
> **political post hidden, please don’t reply** > > Hi guys, just wondering is this a pro-US, anti-Russian thread? I couldn’t read all 7000 posts but from the dozen or so that I did skim through, it sounds like it. > > I don’t dislike anyone so please don’t take it personal or to heart. I’m actually pro Russia on this one and hope for world peace but it doesn’t help when NATO and US forces are expanding their powers. There is a great youtube video that explains how the West started this from a long time ago…a lecture from 7 years ago: [Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4) > > stay safe everyone and don’t hate the messenger. I love America too, just not their foreign policy. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7238 "2022-08-20T16:54:02Z")
So you don’t think this could be a pro-Ukraine thread? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7239 "2022-08-20T16:56:54Z")
> [@thescrr](#): > > I’m actually pro Russia on this one As was pointed out earlier in the thread, this is for news about the the war. There’s a [thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-defence-of-russia/969166) in The BBQ Pit specifically for defending Russia. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7240 "2022-08-20T17:05:15Z")
> [@thescrr](#): > > Hi guys, just wondering is this a pro-US, anti-Russian thread? I couldn’t read all 7000 posts but from the dozen or so that I did skim through, it sounds like it. > > I don’t dislike anyone so please don’t take it personal or to heart. I’m actually pro Russia on this one and hope for world peace but it doesn’t help when NATO and US forces are expanding their powers. There is a great youtube video that explains how the West started this from a long time ago…a lecture from 7 years ago: [Why is Ukraine the West’s Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4) > > stay safe everyone and don’t hate the messenger. I love America too, just not their foreign policy. In addition to what others have mentioned, that lecture has to do with the Crimea invasion of 2014, not the current conflict. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7241 "2022-08-20T17:06:14Z")
> [@thescrr](#): > > I’m actually pro Russia on this one and hope for world peace These are mutually incompatible positions. Please take further discussion to the Pit thread linked above. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7242 "2022-08-20T17:24:33Z")
where have I heard this before? … **Seit 5 Uhr 45 wird jetzt zurückgeschossen!** … when nazi germany was attacked by poland … of course they had to defend themselves - one would understand that russia today is in a similar position. /s if it weren’t for the 1000s of ukr. deaths and general destruction, the whole thing surely had its interesting, ironic even comic moments, when the russians get there ass kicked quite consistently by ukr. - moscva, krim, … (and claiming it on their incompetence - to make it look “better”) the collapse of the soviet union came with the forced withdrawal from their afghanistan debacle - and all that went with it… so I am really interested in seeing a 2030 map of what today is russia 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7243 "2022-08-20T17:26:12Z")
It is quite pro Ukraine. Which is fine. But often any facts that may favor Russian situation on the battlefield are attacked as pro Russian. I find it just amusing to read this thread. The BBQ pit thread is even more a waste of time. Much flaming of course. It is BBQ. ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2022, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7244 "2022-08-20T17:30:28Z")
> [@Kedikat](#): > > Some good information sources on the Ukraine war and other current events. > > [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUnc496-PPmFZVKlYxUnToA/videos](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUnc496-PPmFZVKlYxUnToA/videos) > > Very detailed daily updates specifically of the Ukraine war. > [https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a](https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a) > A lot of Ukraine war and other current events. > [https://odysee.com/@theduran:e](https://odysee.com/@theduran:e) > Along with the previous channel host. Similar range of coverage. > I appreciate these sites as the commentators are careful to give you an idea of how firm they think the facts are, as well as the sources. Often saying they may be shaky. > [https://odysee.com/@SouthFront:4](https://odysee.com/@SouthFront:4) > Very short concise blurbs of current military events. Unpredictable as to what side they may favor? I compare to other sources. > Of course the more mainstream media as well. > I consider it all and try to make my best guess as to what is actually happening. > Some are quick and easy. Some take time to view and digest. Occasionally The New Atlas has Ukraine war updates and explanations. [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVkSF37pPXkZbElFjBwUsEA](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVkSF37pPXkZbElFjBwUsEA) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=358) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=360)