# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 362
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2022, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7285 "2022-08-21T16:52:41Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > I mean, if Alex Jones convinced Trump to invade Mexico, rape, murder, depopulate, and steal their children… well, I wouldn’t shed tears. Without personally knowing either of those shitheels, I think I still feel somewhat confidant that the odds that Dugin convinced Putin to invade Ukraine were less than 0.001%. Putin had his own reasons and his shit intelligence service reports. Dugin is a cheerleader and propagandist for authoritarianism, jingoism and cultural genocide. His views are odious and he is guilty of promulgating ideas that shore up Putin’s public support for his warmongering. But Putin is a de facto tyrant. At the end of the day all of Dugin’s agitation for war probably didn’t amount to a hill of beans placed next to Putin’s own calculations. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2022, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7286 "2022-08-21T17:10:37Z")
Not that I’m an expert but if I were to list the most likely candidates for this assassination attempt it would be: 1. Putin, 2. Putin, 3. Putin, 4. Putin, 5. FSB without Putin’s knowledge. This is based purely on past behaviour. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2022, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7287 "2022-08-21T19:47:12Z")
“Will no one rid me of this troublesome philosopher?” [boom] “Swing and a miss, as the Amerikanskis say.” ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2022, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7288 "2022-08-21T19:54:06Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > “Swing and a miss, as the Amerikanskis say.” More like [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/euHfP6X_axY/hqdefault.jpg "Bull Durham - Throw it at the Bull") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euHfP6X_axY&t=46) ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7289 "2022-08-22T01:21:24Z")
if this russian war blogger is right, the russians seem to be in really hot water in the near future: tl;dr … russsia stopped producing 122mm shells in 2013 and is running low on stocks, possible rendering 4500 artillery pieces useless details from here - good debate going on > **[r/ukraine - \[Translated\] Russian military blogger explains why Russia's advance...](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wu8kwb/translated_russian_military_blogger_explains_why/)** > > 1,428 votes and 266 comments so far on Reddit from the thread: _But if it IS true that they are running low on 122mm shells and that production stopped in 2013 plus factories for them no longer exist in russia then that is at least great news. Means 4.500+ russian 122mm artillery guns (D-30 etc) will be out of commission all by themselves once the last of these shells have been fired._ THIS might be the reason why Ukr. is fiercely targeting those ammunition depots - reminds me of the allieds targeting the mayor ball-bearing factory in nazi-germany, once they detected the inherent “weakness” that went with it. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7290 "2022-08-22T01:53:41Z")
Yeah, but remember that the Schweinfurt raids were a bust. They didn’t do shit except get a very large number of bomber crews shot down. Ammo dumps, OTOH, might just be the weak spot needed. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7291 "2022-08-22T03:52:03Z")
I assume Kyiv still doesn’t have a missile defense system? I recall there was discussions but it takes time to train crews and deploy. I have a bad feeling cruise missiles will target Odessa and Kyiv on Ukraine Independence Day. Why close Russian air space? Is that for the cruise missiles? Cite [Ukraine braces for intensified attacks after Moscow car bomb killing | Ukraine | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/ukraine-braces-for-intensified-attacks-after-moscow-car-bomb-killing) > [@](#): > > Ukraine is bracing itself for an intensification of Russian missile attacks to coincide with its independence day on Wednesday in the aftermath of the car-bomb killing of the daughter of an ultranationalist Russian ideologue. > > The country’s military warned that [Russia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) had put five cruise missile-bearing warships and submarines out in the Black Sea and that Moscow was positioning air defence systems in Belarus. Large gatherings have been banned in Kyiv for four days from Monday. > > Overnight on Saturday, Ukraine’s president [Volodymyr Zelenskiy](https://www.theguardian.com/world/volodymyr-zelenskiy) had warned that “Russia may try to do something particularly nasty, something particularly cruel” this week as the country celebrates its 31st anniversary of independence. > > The country’s armed forces also warned on Sunday night that Russia had closed the airspace in the Russian border regions of Lipetsk, Voronezh and regions between 22 and 25 August. > > Tensions between the two warring countries were at risk of heightening further after [the killing of Darya Dugina](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/daughter-of-putin-ally-alexander-dugin-killed-in-car-bomb-in-moscow-reports), whose father is the Russian political commentator Alexander Dugin, on the outskirts of Moscow on Saturday night. ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7292 "2022-08-22T04:19:00Z")
Hopefully this is sufficient. Nothing is perfect though. [https://ukranews.com/en/news/864567-effective-echeloned-air-defense-system-created-around-kyiv-kyiv-defense-commander-pavliuk](https://ukranews.com/en/news/864567-effective-echeloned-air-defense-system-created-around-kyiv-kyiv-defense-commander-pavliuk) ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7293 "2022-08-22T07:40:20Z")
The attempted Dugin assassination makes me wonder how stable things are in Russia at the moment. I had assumed that there was enough of a culture of fear instilled that things like this were unlikely to happen. Now, I’m not so sure an attempt on Putin’s life isn’t in the cards. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7294 "2022-08-22T11:44:32Z")
Russia’s Interfax news agency quotes the FSB as saying that they have “solved” the killing of Darya Dugina, saying it was Ukraine special forces, who then fled to Estonia. [https://www.interfax.ru/russia/857703](https://www.interfax.ru/russia/857703) ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7295 "2022-08-22T11:51:37Z")
So if the Russians are saying that, does it means some rival was trying to kill Dugina or Putin ordered it? ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7296 "2022-08-22T12:30:07Z")
Seems like a genuine mystery at this point. Been tying my brain in knots trying to figure out a reasonable collection of explanations but there are too many possibilities. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7297 "2022-08-22T12:30:55Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Russia seems determined to drag NATO into the conflict and start a war. I don’t remember who it was that posted the anecdote, but they might be right about the analogy about a fight in a bar parking lot where a dude is getting his butt kicked by someone with one arm but the dude insists on picking a fight with a gang because there is more honor in that kind of expected defeat. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7298 "2022-08-22T12:37:25Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > russsia stopped producing 122mm shells in 2013 and is running low on stocks, possible rendering 4500 artillery pieces useless The effective loss of 4500 Russian artillery pieces would be HUGE and would completely change the dynamics of the conflict. That said, unless there is some sort of production bottleneck I’m unaware of, I can’t imagine it would be that difficult for the Russians to put them back into production around the clock if their war depends on it. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7299 "2022-08-22T12:51:41Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > That said, unless there is some sort of production bottleneck I’m unaware of, I can’t imagine it would be that difficult for the Russians to put them back into production around the clock if their war depends on it. IOW, they’re boned. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7300 "2022-08-22T13:04:32Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > That said, unless there is some sort of production bottleneck I’m unaware of, I can’t imagine it would be that difficult for the Russians to put them back into production Don’t know a lot about making artillery shells, but production…you’d need to have the machine tools ready and performing as specified, the tools to make the tools if they have been in storage a long time, the trained men to operate the tools, and the supervision/quality assurance to make sure that what get produced is usable (won’t blow up in the gun). Nothing about Russian conduct of this conflict to date indicates that this is likely to happen, at least not in the near future. We shall see. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7301 "2022-08-22T13:21:57Z")
Just back to that assassination attempt once more: the prevailing view seems to be that Putin/FSB are getting rid of Russian high-profile ultra-nationalists who criticise Putin for not being Fascist enough and are generally critical of the way things are playing out in Ukraine. If these voices are silenced it might make it easier for Putin to deescalate. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7302 "2022-08-22T13:33:13Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Russia’s Interfax news agency quotes the FSB as saying that they have “solved” the killing of Darya Dugina, saying it was Ukraine special forces, who then fled to Estonia. I thought they accused Russian underground fighters. [The NRA (National Republican Army) has attacked Russia.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/ex-russian-mp-claims-russian-partisans-responsible-for-moscow-car-bomb) ---
**Author:** ![Tride](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tride/32/13907_2.png) [@Tride](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tride)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7303 "2022-08-22T13:37:54Z")
I don’t think this has been posted–gift link: [Russian soldier’s journal](https://wapo.st/3AFfzFK) It’s worth a read–sounds like the Russian attack was even more fucked up than we knew. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2022, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/7304 "2022-08-22T13:48:02Z")
A very interesting analysis of the war and the geopolitical consequences. It’s a long article and worth reading. I added bolding. Ok raise your hand if you had to look up extirpates. 😉 I looked at the context within the sentence and then Googled to confirm. Cite [After six months of bloody and terrible war, what exactly does Putin want from Ukraine? | Philip Short | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/22/six-months-war-putin-ukraine-russia-nato-energy-prices) > [@](#): > > Putin’s goal is not only to neutralise the regime in Kyiv but, more importantly, to show that Nato is powerless to stop him. If in the process he extirpates Ukrainian culture in the areas Russia occupies, that is not collateral damage: it is a bonus. > > Whether he succeeds will depend on the situation on the battlefield, which in turn will depend on the extent of western support over the autumn and winter, when energy shortages and a soaring cost of living risk putting Ukraine’s western partners [under intense strain](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/21/britain-real-cost-war-ukraine-johnson). > Moscow does not have to achieve a great deal for Putin to be able to claim victory. It would be enough for Russia to control all of the Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea. **He would certainly like more. If Russian troops take Odesa and the contiguous Black Sea coast, it would reduce Ukraine to vassalage. But even more modest gains would show the limits of US power. It is possible that Ukraine, with solid western backing, will be able to prevent that. But it is far from certain.** > > The war in Ukraine is not happening in isolation. While Russia is contesting the US-led security order in Europe, [China is challenging it in Asia](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/07/by-taunting-the-us-paper-tiger-china-risks-provoking-a-backlash-over-taiwan). A geopolitical transition has begun whose results may not be fully apparent for decades. But the post-cold war order that has governed the world for the past 30 years is drawing to a close. From its demise, a new balance of power will emerge. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=361) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=363)