# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\
**Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 411

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**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8265 "2022-09-21T01:42:55Z")

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[https://erdgasspeicher.de/en/gas-storage/gas-storage-capacities/](https://erdgasspeicher.de/en/gas-storage/gas-storage-capacities/)

> **[Natural gas consumption Germany 1980-2021 | Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1326405/natural-gas-consumption-germany/)**
>
> Natural gas consumption in Germany is at a high level.

You are welcome.

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**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8266 "2022-09-21T01:44:49Z")

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> [@Kedikat](#):
>
> I replied to a post with that link already. Added more useful information.  
> Obviously I am targeted.

You posted the following with no citation. I posted a link with additional information to put it in context. I’m sorry if this makes you feel “targeted”.

> Apparently Germany has 23 BCM of gas storage capacity. In 2021, they used 90.5 BCM. So they have storage for close to 25% of normal yearly use. With conservation efforts, some other imports likely still an option, I think they can do it okay.

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**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8267 "2022-09-21T01:49:44Z")

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Unfortunately [DW.com](http://DW.com) did not state the capacity which 90% refers to. So useless.  
Nor, what rate that might be consumed.

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**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8268 "2022-09-21T01:51:40Z")

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And I added more information. Sorry you felt “targeted”.

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**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8269 "2022-09-21T05:51:08Z")

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> [@Sage\_Rat](#):
>
> there’s no large purpose in sending troops out until you’ve got equipment ready for them.

I’m remembering the opening scenes for _Enemy at the Gates_ where only half of the soldiers are being thrown into the defense of Stalingrad with a rifle. The rest are given five cartridges and told to take a rifle from the fallen.

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**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8270 "2022-09-21T06:41:50Z")

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> [@DesertDog](#):
>
> I’m remembering the opening scenes for _Enemy at the Gates_ where only half of the soldiers are being thrown into the defense of Stalingrad with a rifle. The rest are given five cartridges and told to take a rifle from the fallen.

Which was inaccurate - by Stalingrad, the Soviets had more than enough rifles and ammunition. A year earlier, during Barbarossa, that scene would have been authentic. People forget that Barbarossa was twice the debacle as the fall of France, and the Soviets only survived because they had more land to retreat to, and because they had the weather on their side…

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**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 7:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8271 "2022-09-21T07:48:20Z")

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> [@Al128](#):
>
> isnt that the best reason to HIMARs the living daylight out of it, right now? … once the heat and heavy shelling has been turned on for weeks, claiming _“if you keep shooting at us tomorrow we are at war”_ … will be a tough sell

Except these are Ukraine’s own cities with their own people. They want to reclaim them and liberate the citizens, not destroy everything. I do wonder though if there might be some attempts at some special operations targeting Russian stooge governers or voting centres.

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**Author:** ![SharltoCopley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sharltocopley/32/12309_2.png) [@SharltoCopley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SharltoCopley)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8272 "2022-09-21T07:49:52Z")

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Vladimir Putin has announced [partial mobilization](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/russia-ukraine-war-putin-announces-partial-military-mobilization.html).

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**Author:** ![JoseB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/joseb/32/1530_2.png) [@JoseB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoseB)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8273 "2022-09-21T07:57:33Z")

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Also has said that he is ready to use nuclear weapons and any other type of WMD if the territorial integrity of Russia is threatened, and that “this is not a bluff”.

My take: when somebody tells you that they are not bluffing, they are indeed bluffing.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 8:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8274 "2022-09-21T08:09:20Z")

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> [@Alessan](#):
>
> they had the weather on their side…

The German goose was cooked long before the winter really set in and the first winter was disastrous for the Soviets with their ill advised Vyzma offensives.

300,000 new call ups will occur due to Putins new decrees.  
From what I have been reading, the main advantage would not be more frontline soldiers, at least not directly, but the ability to use them for rear duties, freeing up more troops for the front.

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**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 8:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8275 "2022-09-21T08:22:55Z")

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> [@AK84](#):
>
> From what I have been reading, the main advantage would not be more frontline soldiers, at least not directly, but the ability to use them for rear duties, freeing up more troops for the front.

Why are there combat troops serving in rear duties now?

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8276 "2022-09-21T08:24:40Z")

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They have 200,000 troops across a front which is hundred of km long and the whole battle space is something like 200,000 sq km.  
Plus a lot of the rear areas are pretty restive.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8277 "2022-09-21T08:30:25Z")

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Putin says that they have lost 6000 men since the war started.

> <https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1572492996544700416?s=46&t=mxi-kdrrIP6BO0MPMIs5eA>

Presuming that’s true, that would mean (assuming a ratio of 10 WIA to every KIA) a total of 60,000 total casualties in 28 weeks of fighting.  
Or over 2000 casualties a week.  
The US suffered about a 1000 casualties in a week during the second Battle of Fallujah in 2004 and that was considered unsustainable long term by Abizad and Sanchez.

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**Author:** ![Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b77776/32.png) [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_was_in_Saudi)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8278 "2022-09-21T09:27:41Z")

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Returning for a moment to the subject of infrastructure attacks. One does not destroy property one will soon own. If the Russians really thought they would soon take a town they would not destroy the infrastructure.

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**Author:** ![psychonaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/psychonaut/32/4655_2.png) [@psychonaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychonaut)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 9:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8279 "2022-09-21T09:32:54Z")

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Others in this thread have already discussed the impracticality of Russia deploying all the newly mobilized personnel, so I don’t think its use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine can be ruled out. What’s still uncertain is how Ukraine’s allies would respond in the event of such an attack—it could be that they and not Putin are the ones who are bluffing.

One possible scenario is as follows: Using the pretext of attacks against its newly annexed territory, Russia launches a nuclear attack on Ukraine. Ukraine’s allies bombastically denounce this action but decide it’s not in their interests to get drawn into a nuclear war, and so commit only to step up existing means of support rather than significantly change the very nature of that support (say, by giving Ukraine nuclear weapons, or by deploying their own militaries in Ukraine, or even by attacking Russia itself with conventional or nuclear weapons). Ukraine recognizes that its situation is ultimately hopeless and surrenders (as Japan did in World War II), or else they continue fighting but are eventually defeated by Russia, possibly after suffering further nuclear attacks.

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**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 9:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8280 "2022-09-21T09:37:46Z")

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> [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](#):
>
> Returning for a moment to the subject of infrastructure attacks. One does not destroy property one will soon own. If the Russians really thought they would soon take a town they would not destroy the infrastructure.

It doesn’t seem that Russia cares if what they own is rubble and corpses. They want to destroy Ukraine. I read some essay which posited that the atrocities and pointless destruction was motivated by vengeance, not by any political aim at all. They hate Ukraine for not welcoming them as fellow Russians. They see Ukraine as traitorous. They are not re-annexing, they are punishing. Or trying to.

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**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 9:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8281 "2022-09-21T09:46:18Z")

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> [@psychonaut](#):
>
> One possible scenario is as follows: Using the pretext of attacks against its newly annexed territory, Russia launches a nuclear attack on Ukraine. Ukraine’s allies bombastically denounce this action but decide it’s not in their interests to get drawn into a nuclear war

At this point in the scenario, Ukraine’s allies have already been “drawn into a nuclear war”. Any response other than retaliation in kind is tantamount to surrender, as you have now legitimized the use of a nuclear first strike as a means of winning wars of conquest.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 10:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8282 "2022-09-21T10:10:16Z")

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Oh FFS.  
Attacking infrastructure is something the USAF does on day one of a war. And that’s everyone’s doctrine including the Russians.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8283 "2022-09-21T10:12:37Z")

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> [@Paul\_was\_in\_Saudi](#):
>
> Returning for a moment to the subject of infrastructure attacks. One does not destroy property one will soon own. If the Russians really thought they would soon take a town they would not destroy the infrastructure.

They seem to have started going after power stations. And recently some railyards. Since most of Ukraines strategic movement is done through electrified rail, that makes sense.  
The worry throughout has been they might do Grozny II , which they haven’t thus far.

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**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8284 "2022-09-21T10:13:57Z")

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Sorry if already posted.

> **[Putin orders partial military call-up, sparking protests](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-donetsk-f64f9c91f24fc81bc8cc65e8bc7748f4)**
>
> KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilization of reservists Wednesday to bolster his forces in Ukraine, a deeply unpopular move that sparked rare protests across the country and led to almost 1,200 arrests.

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