# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 412
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8285 "2022-09-21T10:26:35Z")
The bluff is he is likely to declare the currently occupied areas as Russia and therefore any attack on them as an attack on Russia itself and therefore inviting nuclear retaliation. As the Economist pointed out, he is not Biden, nuclear release is one of the few formal _and_ actual limits on his power. [He needs the defense minister and Chief of Staff’s agreement to do so](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheget). ETA: A cached version. [Do Russia’s military setbacks increase the risk of nuclear conflict? | The Economist (googleusercontent.com)](https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ZsKR_C_EMu0J:https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/09/14/do-russias-military-setbacks-increase-the-risk-of-nuclear-conflict&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=pk) ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 10:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8286 "2022-09-21T10:37:51Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > As the Economist pointed out, he is not Biden, nuclear release is one of the few formal _and_ actual limits on his power. [He needs the defense minister and Chief of Staff’s agreement to do so](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheget). And how many of those does he need to send to Gulag before he finds two who’ll say yes? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 10:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8287 "2022-09-21T10:39:22Z")
If he sends an order and that’s not confirmed, will be his last day in power. He is aware of that. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8288 "2022-09-21T11:25:34Z")
There’s no way that this is accurate. Not sure if Ukraine’s #s are accurate either, but Putin lies about everything. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8289 "2022-09-21T11:31:00Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Except these are Ukraine’s own cities with their own people. They want to reclaim them and liberate the citizens, not destroy everything. I do wonder though if there might be some attempts at some special operations targeting Russian stooge governers or voting centres. hence te HIMARs - which allow for a good level of “selectivity” (as they have shown already en Khersov attacks) - but the point is you need to hit them with the right tools NOW and HARD … and **normalize the attacks** before the claim its russia territory iow start now and don’t stop shelling/shooting for a couple of weeks there… . And as the noose gets tighter, I am more worried about some _“I won’t go out silent and alone - I’d rather have plenty of company”_ scenario… ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8290 "2022-09-21T11:44:47Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Attacking infrastructure is something the USAF does on day one of a war. And that’s everyone’s doctrine including the Russians. Hospitals? Schools? Civilians fleeing to safety? They’ve attacked all of these. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8291 "2022-09-21T12:14:55Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > And as the noose gets tighter, I am more worried about some _“I won’t go out silent and alone - I’d rather have plenty of company”_ scenario… Sure, but at least we (the West, I mean) have the reassurance of knowing that, whatever may come, we only ever had one good option, and that was to do what we are now doing. There’s been no missed opportunity for de-escalation, and there’s no compromise or offramp we can offer Putin that will bring lasting peace. ---
**Author:** ![psychonaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/psychonaut/32/4655_2.png) [@psychonaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychonaut)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8292 "2022-09-21T12:24:30Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > At this point in the scenario, Ukraine’s allies have already been “drawn into a nuclear war”. No, it’s not a nuclear war until someone launches a nuclear weapon. > [@](#): > > Any response other than retaliation in kind is tantamount to surrender, as you have now legitimized the use of a nuclear first strike as a means of winning wars of conquest. Sure, but that still doesn’t mean that retaliation in kind will be used _in this case_. Could be that other nuclear powers simply stay put, hoping that no one will repeat Russia’s precedent of using nuclear weapons offensively, in much the same way that they’ve all spent the last 77 years hoping (correctly, as it turned out) that no one would repeat the US’s precedent of using nuclear weapons defensively. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8293 "2022-09-21T12:26:04Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > > [@psychonaut](#): > > > > One possible scenario is as follows: Using the pretext of attacks against its newly annexed territory, Russia launches a nuclear attack on Ukraine. Ukraine’s allies bombastically denounce this action but decide it’s not in their interests to get drawn into a nuclear war > > At this point in the scenario, Ukraine’s allies have already been “drawn into a nuclear war”. Any response other than retaliation in kind is tantamount to surrender, as you have now legitimized the use of a nuclear first strike as a means of winning wars of conquest. There’s one other option that I see, assuming we’re talking Russia having used only one or two tactical nukes. That would be if China and India, along with the West, somehow or another (likely including a coup) force a breakup and de-nuclearization of Russia. I know it’s a long shot, but at that point what would China and India have to lose? ETA: I mean what would they have to lose by joining the West in using any means possible short of nuclear retaliation to force Russia to break up and disarm. Obviously they, along with the rest of the world, will lose everything in a nuclear war. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8294 "2022-09-21T12:28:26Z")
> [@psychonaut](#): > > No, it’s not a nuclear war until someone launches a nuclear weapon. As per your hypothetical; > [@psychonaut](#): > > One possible scenario is as follows: Using the pretext of attacks against its newly annexed territory, **Russia launches a nuclear attack on Ukraine** _(emphasis mine)_. Ukraine’s allies bombastically denounce this action but decide it’s not in their interests to get drawn into a nuclear war > [@psychonaut](#): > > Could be that other nuclear powers simply stay put, hoping that no one will repeat Russia’s precedent of using nuclear weapons offensively If Russia gets away with doing it once, they will do it again and again. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8295 "2022-09-21T12:36:36Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > know it’s a long shot, but at that point what would China and India have to lose? Their legitimacy as nations. They really really don’t want a precedent like that which can then be used on them down the line. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8296 "2022-09-21T13:13:09Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Their legitimacy as nations. They really really don’t want a precedent like that which can then be used on them down the line. Right, but they also don’t want the precedent of nuclear weapons being used with impunity. They’re not stupid. ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8297 "2022-09-21T13:16:05Z")
To me this looks like he’s now playing entirely for the home audience, though there’s also a warning for Ukraine and other neighboring countries to not push their luck and reverse recent Russian land grabs. The mobilized troops won’t be used to retake any parts of Ukraine, put will be posted to “guard the border against imminent western incursion” and keep people in the state of fear he needs to stay in power. That’s all a WAG of course. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8298 "2022-09-21T13:36:49Z")
😂 Somebody needs to read Indian doctrine. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8299 "2022-09-21T13:56:45Z")
Is your understanding of Indian doctrine better than your understanding of Russian military capabilities? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8300 "2022-09-21T14:04:25Z")
Much better than yours at least. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8301 "2022-09-21T14:24:24Z")
Did you miss that I said this would be very difficult for Russia since February? ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8302 "2022-09-21T14:44:50Z")
> [@psychonaut](#): > > No, it’s not a nuclear war until someone launches a nuclear weapon. The scenario posits that Russia has done so. Allowing them to do so without retaliation would amount to putting Putin in charge of the planet. Whether the retaliation would have to be nuclear I suppose is another question; but it would have to be massive. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8303 "2022-09-21T14:47:30Z")
If Russia launches a nuke, even a small one, NATO should respond with overwhelming conventional force - sink every Russian warship in the Black Sea, obliterate every Russian air defense and airfield site in Ukraine (including Crimea), and possibly more. Hopefully (and probably) there are already NATO assets in position to do this continuously within 24 hrs or so. ---
**Author:** ![psychonaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/psychonaut/32/4655_2.png) [@psychonaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychonaut)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2022, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8304 "2022-09-21T14:52:09Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > As per your hypothetical; Sorry, I overlooked the “in the scenario” bit of your sentence. I saw “already” and thought you were talking about the current, actual situation. In my scenario I should have clarified even further that I was talking about more _direct_ involvement. > [@](#): > > If Russia gets away with doing it once, they will do it again and again. Yes, but as long as they stick to their own backyard, other powers might decide it’s safer to stick, on the whole, to vocal protestations. Both the leadership and the general population of Germany, the USA, etc. are largely in support of military aid to Ukraine, but whether they’re prepared to become nuclear targets (an inevitably victims) on its behalf is another matter entirely. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=411) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=413)