# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 440
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8847 "2022-09-30T20:24:57Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Very difficult to get any information about the system at all, and that’s probably exactly as it should be. Right, I’m just saying that we, as the public, don’t really know what countermeasures we have in place against a nuclear attack, nor how different amounts of time to prepare will affect them. ---
**Author:** ![mordecaiB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mordecaib/32/7725_2.png) [@mordecaiB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mordecaiB)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8848 "2022-09-30T20:54:08Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > They haven’t done well enough yet with SEAD so don’t supply them with equipment that’ll help them do SEAD better? Yes. You don’t want advanced systems in a place where they are likely to be salvaged by your enemy. And this means Ukrainian pilots who have no experience. Even when the US sells weapons systems to most other countries, they are not equipped with top of the line electronics. Older stuff, sure. Not the same stuff US pilots would use. > [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > but are already able to conduct CAS Close air support is nothing like defeating an enemies radar system. Conducting a couple of air support missions with dumb bombs is nothing close to what they need to gain air superiority. > [@smithsb](#): > > The Russian S-300 air defense systems have been particularly susceptible to HARM interdiction to the point where the S-300 missiles are being launched in surface-to-surface mode as terror weapons against civilians. Glad to hear it. I wasn’t aware they were having any real success other than feel good raids. > [@smithsb](#): > > The most immediate need IMHO are the NASM air defense systems. Besides aircraft, they are effective against most cruise and short range ballistic missiles likely to carry any threatened tactical nuclear weapon. This should be top of the list. The more Putin loses ground, the more he’s going to target civilian populations and things like infrastructure. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’d even pause to think about hitting a nuclear plant. Just another target to him. > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > As far as has been reported, Russia hasn’t destroyed any of them yet. That’s what I thought, so I was wondering what the worry was about them being destroyed. The whole idea behind them is shoot and scoot. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The entire population of Ukraine is motivated to fight for their own lives and families, and as long as we keep them supplied with weapons, Russia’s kleptocratic, corrupt, and inept military cannot hold territory in Ukraine. This sounds good, but Putin could hold onto territory for years. He doesn’t care about casualties and if all he does is strengthen defensive positions he can lob munitions at Ukraine all day long. It’s not like Russia has never done this before. Also, I’m sure Ukraine figured out long ago that being the one that does the actual fighting in a proxy war is a terrible position to be in. Basically, they get enough training and weapons to kill wholesale lots of invaders, but not the weapons they actually could use to win. They’ve already been told they can’t use weapons inside Russia’s border. And everyone continues to refuse to give them longer range weapons. Unless there is a real policy change, and it can’t just be the US, Putin can probably hold his “annexed” territory as long as he can control his government. And he seems to be doing just fine in that regard. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8849 "2022-09-30T20:57:10Z")
> [@mordecaiB](#): > > Close air support is nothing like defeating an enemies radar system. Conducting a couple of air support missions with dumb bombs is nothing close to what they need to gain air superiority. They can do this because they have adequately suppressed enemy air defenses in those locations! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8850 "2022-09-30T20:58:29Z")
Putin is losing territory by the day, and losing his best weapons and best motivated and trained soldiers too. Ukraine is winning. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8851 "2022-09-30T21:04:11Z")
> [@Skywatcher](#): > > [NYPD says random](https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2022/09/30/police-investigate-vandalism-of-russian-consulate-on-upper-east-side-) but I’m guessing they don’t have anyone fluent in Ukrainian or Russian. “Russians go the house?” ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8852 "2022-09-30T21:07:50Z")
I apologize in advance if this has already been asked and for my ignorance. I have looked at a few of the maps that have been provided. From how it appears to me, (excluding Crimea) Ukraine seems to have only taken back around 5% of land occupied by the Russians. I hope that I am way off but am I? ---
**Author:** ![Seanette](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/seanette/32/9139_2.png) [@Seanette](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seanette)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8853 "2022-09-30T21:09:53Z")
> [@Skywatcher](#): > > [NYPD says random](https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2022/09/30/police-investigate-vandalism-of-russian-consulate-on-upper-east-side-) but I’m guessing they don’t have anyone fluent in Ukrainian or Russian. Not a hard problem to solve. Put the image up on a few social media sites, crowd-source the translation. Even if somehow you get inadequate response from a population as large and varied as NYC’s (including native speakers, multi-lingual citizens, and university language professors, I would think), people in other areas could pitch in. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8854 "2022-09-30T21:11:06Z")
> [@Skywatcher](#): > > [NYPD says random](https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2022/09/30/police-investigate-vandalism-of-russian-consulate-on-upper-east-side-) but I’m guessing they don’t have anyone fluent in Ukrainian or Russian. A quick Google search tells me that NYC had 600k Russian speakers and 150k Ukrainian speakers. The NYPD is certain to have officers or employees fluent in both. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8855 "2022-09-30T21:38:49Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Ukraine seems to have only taken back around 5% of land occupied by the Russians. I hope that I am way off but am I? you know - these things don’t work linearly … they could probably take more land “cheaper”, but they are going for the supply routes e.g. railway intersections - which is bad news for russia in the mid-term, as everything gets so much more complicated form an organizational POV. ANALOGY:… the first 20 min the Titanic showed little impact … then 20 min later something of an impact… then things get lopsided very fast and you cannot correct for it… ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8856 "2022-09-30T21:50:05Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > > [@Skywatcher](#): > > > > [NYPD says random](https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2022/09/30/police-investigate-vandalism-of-russian-consulate-on-upper-east-side-) but I’m guessing they don’t have anyone fluent in Ukrainian or Russian. > > “Russians go the house?” Get your Monty Python quotes right. It’s “The people called Russianes they go the house.” ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8857 "2022-09-30T21:52:47Z")
did some armchair analysis today and came up very pesimistic … here my rationale: - **Putin is clear he is losing the war against Ukraine** (best indicator: the way they rushed the “elections” within a week instead of a more reasonable 4-6 weeks - b/c he knows the territory is being taken away from him just like sand running through his finger - and today he has more of a bargaining chip than in 6 weeks) - **He made the 4 regions russian today** (a clear “rationale/narrative/possibility to escalate” - as HE wishes) - **He has now a logical reasoning/card blanche (for domestic audience) why he had to use nukes** (ex post justification - they attacked russian motherland) - we know that is BS, but its plausible deniability territory for russian history - **So he now has a switch (tactical nukes), that - if flicked - allows him to involve Western Forces at will in the war**. Setting off nukes will bring in the west, physically. - **His legacy will be “We were attacked by the whole West and hence we lost this war”** (and all died) … which from his POV will be a superior solution to “We lost against Ukraine” (and Putin dies in shame) I really get the feeling that this is the gameplan … sadly . ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8858 "2022-09-30T22:00:01Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Get your Monty Python quotes right. It’s > > “The people called Russianes they go the house.” Splitter! ---
**Author:** ![mordecaiB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mordecaib/32/7725_2.png) [@mordecaiB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mordecaiB)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8859 "2022-09-30T22:06:20Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > They can do this because they have adequately suppressed enemy air defenses in those locations! In a tiny spot, and that’s assuming there was air defense there in the first place. It’s nothing compared to where they can’t fly, which is most of the Russian held territory. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Putin is losing territory by the day, and losing his best weapons and best motivated and trained soldiers too. Ukraine is winning. Ukraine is doing well, but they have still lost huge chunks of their territory. It’s not winning when a foreign army is holding onto great chunks of your land. And that’s not including Crimea, which Russia has held for 8 years. It’s great that Ukraine is making some progress. Pretty much everyone here is happy and surprised at how well they have been doing. Let’s not oversell it and tell ourselves it’s all over but the crying. There is a long way to go yet and it’s not going to be an easy job, no matter how much you say it is. No matter what weapons we give them, it’s Ukrainians that are going to be spilling the blood. > [@Seanette](#): > > Not a hard problem to solve Nothing to solve, that doesn’t say anything. I’m sure in a few days some random CT nut will come up with a secret message. I assume it’s supposed to represent blood. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8860 "2022-09-30T22:08:47Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > you know - these things don’t work linearly … they could probably take more land “cheaper”, but they are going for the supply routes e.g. railway intersections - which is bad news for russia in the mid-term, as everything gets so much more complicated form an organizational POV. That’s interesting and I understand. I’m still curious about what percent of land has been retaken. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8861 "2022-09-30T22:15:22Z")
Another high ranking Russian official gone. Apparently an errant missile fell on his house. Also a important Wagner commander dies. > > ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8862 "2022-09-30T22:34:47Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > From how it appears to me, (excluding Crimea) Ukraine seems to have only taken back around 5% of land occupied by the Russians. That’s a complicated question to answer. You say you are excluding Crimea, but are you also excluding the parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts held by the separatists since 2014 as well? Are you including or excluding the territory Russia retrenched from (i.e. around Kyiv) when their offensive there became untenable and they decided to concentrate on the Donbas? But anyway in June Zelenskyy said Russia occupied ~20% of Ukraine, variously reported as 47,000 or 48,000 sq. miles. Since mid-September they’ve purportedly taken maybe ~3,400 of those back. But I’m pretty sure Zelenskyy was including Crimea and the separatist areas. The DPR and LPR together covered ~8,500 sq miles, Crimea ~10,000. So let’s say ~48,000 sq miles - ~18,500 = ~29,500 sq. miles seized by Russia since early 2022 and still held by June. So 3,4000/29,500 = 11.5%. 3,400/48,000 = 5% as you noted. But all of this is complicated by the land Russia took between June and September (some, not a lot) and also what they lost around Kyiv when they retreated before June - that might all be a wash, I don’t know. It’s a shifting target because of land always being lost and gained from week to week. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8863 "2022-09-30T22:51:39Z")
Ballistic missile submarines have largely eliminated any need for instant “we need to launch our nukes now or we’ll lose them” retaliation strikes these days. The whole point of such submarines is that they buy you lots of time to think. You can ride out the enemy’s first strike and ponder your options, no need for a “Mr. President we need a decision in 10 minutes”. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8864 "2022-09-30T23:13:02Z")
The point of SSBNs is that it makes a crippling first strike impossible (i.e. MAD). That the whole US could be obliterated but SSBNs would still be out there somewhere to make the enemy pay for it. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8865 "2022-09-30T23:17:51Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > I have looked at a few of the maps that have been provided. From how it appears to me, (excluding Crimea) Ukraine seems to have only taken back around 5% of land occupied by the Russians. I hope that I am way off but am I? You are in for a surprise. Here is an animated map from day one to mid Sept. A big recapture after forcing a Russian retreat from Kiev, then mostly nibbling, then the big burst in early Sept. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/lntHMpPxTAI/maxresdefault.jpg "Ukraine vs Russia Time Lapse Map ( DAY 1 To NOW )") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lntHMpPxTAI) ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2022, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/8866 "2022-09-30T23:26:29Z")
Thanks @Tamerlane and @smithsb for the great answers. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=439) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=441)