# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 55
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1081 "2022-03-04T04:52:01Z")
Supposedly, Graham served as a lawyer in the military. His MO, however, is to pick a mark, inject himself into their life, and start subverting them for his purposes. That’s dead-on how CIA agents are reputed to work. If he didn’t work as an intelligence officer as some point, he sure read the manual. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1082 "2022-03-04T04:52:30Z")
I believe sanctions will eventually work against the Russian oligarchs. They must be concerned about events in Ukraine. They expected a quick incursion into Ukraine and change of government. They got a prolonged war that is becoming increasingly dangerous and unpredictable. It wouldn’t surprise me to hear an announcement that Putin is taking an extended rest at a ciuntryside dacha. Maybe within the next few weeks? Every country has a power base of industrialists, business men, and the wealthy that are very influential. Anarchy is bad for business.The destabilization of the Ruble and other economic pressure will force action. Some people may be privately asking Putin to change direction. I wouldn’t tip my hand in that situation. It would be smarter to act decisively against Putin before he can strike back. I think there will be a new leader in Russia. It may be someone even more authoritarian. But declaring victory and withdrawing from Ukraine aill be tbe outcome. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1083 "2022-03-04T05:01:49Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Every country has a power base of industrialists, business men, and the wealthy that are very influential. Anarchy is bad for business.The destabilization of the Ruble and other economic pressure will force action. > > I think there will be a new leader in Russia. It may be someone even more authoritarian. If I was them, I’d sure be avoiding any get-togethers that Putin was inviting them to. I remember when North Korea went dark for a couple of months and, when they came back, Un’s uncle was no more and there’d been a whole lot of killing in Pyongyang. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1084 "2022-03-04T05:05:31Z")
Moving against Putin would certainly be risky. It would require a powerful group with enough influence to get the backing of the security services and military. The government structure wouldn’t change. Some other thug would be put in power. There’s always a chance plans are discovered and a coup against Putin fails. I remember the coup attempt in Turkey failed because only one military leader attempted it. The rest of the military stayed loyal. I can’t see any other solution if Putin continues to escalate the war. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1085 "2022-03-04T05:24:12Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The Russians were never going to just drive all the way from Belarus to Kyiv in one shot, you can’t do that. You don’t just scoot beyond your lines of supply and enter a city in march formation. You don’t sit for days in the same spot either. Maneuver warfare is sort of a big thing in today’s doctrine. ---
**Author:** ![ASL\_v2.0](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asl_v2.0/32/3525_2.png) [@ASL\_v2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ASL_v2.0)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1086 "2022-03-04T05:33:50Z")
> [@eschrodinger](#): > > Is it a war crime to shell a nuclear power plant? Probably depends. A more illustrative way of reframing the question might be, _is there ever a circumstance in which shelling a nuclear power plant might be permissible under the law of armed conflict?_ To that, as a purely hypothetical matter keeping in mind that honest to god nuclear weapons and fire bombings have been inflicted on civilian populations in living memory and yet there appears to have been an uneasy (though by no means universal) consensus that such tactics were permissible under the circumstances, I would have to say the answer must surely be yes. But I very much doubt such a circumstance has arisen here. The principle argument here must surely be—and for my part is—that the invasion itself is a war crime, never mind the nature of the targets. Anyway, even if there have been no direct hits on the buildings containing the actual reactors, there’s still the risk of causing some kind of damage to adjacent power grids or, worse, to emergency power systems. It doesn’t take a direct hit on a containment structure, let alone an actual reactor, to cause a meltdown. See Fukushima. ---
**Author:** ![lum\_s\_husband](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lum_s_husband/32/3698_2.png) [@lum\_s\_husband](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lum_s_husband)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1087 "2022-03-04T05:46:29Z")
Consider the sections of Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions concerning dams, nuclear plants, etc. Russia is a signatory. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1088 "2022-03-04T05:50:03Z")
Graham saying that out loud makes a bad outcome more likely. Incredibly irresponsible. ---
**Author:** ![ASL\_v2.0](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asl_v2.0/32/3525_2.png) [@ASL\_v2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ASL_v2.0)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1089 "2022-03-04T06:00:09Z")
> [@lum\_s\_husband](#): > > Consider the sections of Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions concerning dams, nuclear plants, etc. Russia is a signatory. Fascinating. It is indeed covered under article 56. My more cynical side wonders just how seriously any of the major signatories would take it in the event of a large scale conflict on the level of WWII. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 8:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1090 "2022-03-04T08:29:32Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > > [@RickJay](#): > > > > They’d launch nukes in the first hour. > > That’s a real risk for sure. But they didn’t during the (arguably) even greater tensions of the Cuban missile crisis Past performance is no guarantee of future results. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 8:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1091 "2022-03-04T08:41:03Z")
Reactors will need some really big iron bombs to breach their containment, Arty shells aren’t going to cut it. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 8:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1092 "2022-03-04T08:48:15Z")
SHHHHHH!!! Maybe they don’t know that! ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1093 "2022-03-04T09:49:40Z")
“They” made it, so very likely “they” do know. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1094 "2022-03-04T11:03:48Z")
I’d use this whole nuclear plant debacle to my advantage: send 20 guys in hazmat suits (with white flag) and a rigged geiger-counter to the local russian command and put up a convincing act of “we have a huge radiation leak here” - everybody must retreat 20 (better yet 50) miles now, as when staying here for more than 8 hours you have a 50% chance of dying of radiation in the next 3 weeks - btw, mrs russian commander - how long have you been standing here? hopefully you just arrived, right? … because we hazmat guys are surely not staying here for one extra minute (walk off at a very steep pace without looking back) … just to f.ck with the russians extra browny points if one of those hazmat actors is Zelensky ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1095 "2022-03-04T11:13:42Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > The situation looks a little different from the 1950’s or 1960’s. In those decades, I don’t recall banking shutdowns (including Switzerland!!), worldwide sanctions, Sweden sending military equipment, or a complete ban on international sports activities. We are in unprecedented times for sure. This is the frustrating thing to me, the world is treading new ground all around and it’s nigh impossible to predict an outcome. I see no future for the invasion or Putin or Russia, but don’t see any path to the other side of this. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1096 "2022-03-04T11:17:30Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Reactors will need some really big iron bombs to breach their containment, Arty shells aren’t going to cut it. Not that I think there is _actually_ anything to worry about at this point, but Russia doesn’t need to crack the core containment to turn the reactor into a catastrophe. They just need to interrupt cooling or the power that provides cooling. Some of the reactors are “shut down”, but these still need cooling to remain stable. Even spent fuel needs to be cooled. But it does seem like initial reports seem to be overblown about Russia recklessly endangering the reactor. Some tense moments for sure, but it seems evident that nobody wants to turn this crisis into a glowing crisis. For now. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1097 "2022-03-04T11:32:50Z")
The noose tightens a bit more: > **[China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank freezes Russia lending](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-led-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-freezes-russia-lending-2022-03-03/)** > > Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) said on Thursday it has put all activities relating to Russia and Belarus on hold and under review in the wake of the current conflict in Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1098 "2022-03-04T11:35:59Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > > [@RickJay](#): > > > > They’d launch nukes in the first hour. > > That’s a real risk for sure. But they didn’t during the (arguably) even greater tensions of the Cuban missile crisis in the depths of the Cold War, when Kennedy directly confronted Soviet ships in a naval blockade, and at one point the US Navy dropped depth charges on a Soviet nuclear submarine. There was a different person/people with different motives and sanity levels in charge back then, and a different organizational structure. A number of folks have expressed concern about Putin’s sanity and vanity, as well as his recent reluctance to accept the counsel of others. It’s quite reasonable to worry that he might choose to go scorched-earth, no matter how counterproductive it might be for him and/or Russia in the long run. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1099 "2022-03-04T11:39:18Z")
Not as much as you might think. > ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2022, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1100 "2022-03-04T11:40:27Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Not that I think there is _actually_ anything to worry about at this point, but Russia doesn’t need to crack the core containment to turn the reactor into a catastrophe. They are backups to continue cooling the reactor even if the power fails. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=54) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=56)