# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 69
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1361 "2022-03-06T17:24:39Z")
I’ve no doubt these Ukrainian estimates are on the high side. But I also suspect the numbers of aircraft, and to a lesser extent vehicles, are slighter more (but not totally) reliable; whereas the number of casualties is based on optimistic mathematics. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1362 "2022-03-06T17:24:45Z")
I saw an article (might have been on BBC) saying that Belarus formations have refused to go into Ukraine. I don’t know how accurate that report is, I was just skimming it in passing, but if true that could mean some serious issues for Belarus, as it would mean this isn’t some officers dragging their feet but the actual soldiers. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1363 "2022-03-06T17:25:42Z")
> [@XT](#): > > One thing it seems clear from what I’ve been reading is…Russia already has a pretty big shortage of trucks and supply vehicles. I’m not sure where they would get additional supplies of that from to bolster what they have and replace their losses to date (China maybe?). If we are just talking about trucks or even tankers, isn’t there likely a lot of those in the Russian private sector that can be contracted or even commandeered? Many are probably idle due to the sanctions. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1364 "2022-03-06T17:27:22Z")
I’d thought of that. You might want to bring a rag-tag group of unmatched commercial trucks if you were using them on defense. You’re desperate, and they presumably wouldn’t have to go far. For an invasion? No way. You most likely don’t have parts, tires, anything for them. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1365 "2022-03-06T17:28:03Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > If we are just talking about trucks or even tankers, isn’t there likely a lot of those in the Russian private sector that can be contracted or even commandeered? Many are probably idle due to the sanctions. They wouldn’t be very well suited to moving stuff through a combat zone though. Civilian tanker trucks or big rigs need good, clear roads. I suppose, in a pinch you could use them, but I don’t know how well they would work supplying mobile forces in a combat zone, especially when Ukraine already seems to be specifically targeting them. They would stand out even more as a target I would think. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1366 "2022-03-06T17:33:35Z")
On the other hand, commercial vehicles probably have a better maintenance history than the military ones. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1367 "2022-03-06T17:40:07Z")
It reminded me of what **[Geraldo Rivera did](https://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/03/31/sprj.irq.geraldo/)** in 2003: > [@](#): > > In the broadcast, Rivera instructed his photographer to tilt the camera down to the sand in front of his feet so that he could draw a map. > > The Fox correspondent then outlined a map of Iraq, and showed the relative location of Baghdad and his location with the 101st Airborne unit. > > Rivera then continued with his sandy diagram to illustrate where the 101st would be going next. > > “He went down in the sand and drew where the forces are going,” said a stunned senior military official. “He gave away the big picture stuff.” Or what Trump did on – doubtless – any number of occasions in the Oval Office. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1368 "2022-03-06T17:44:12Z")
True. ---
**Author:** ![Mogle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mogle/32/12021_2.png) [@Mogle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mogle)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1369 "2022-03-06T17:45:20Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > If we are just talking about trucks or even tankers, isn’t there likely a lot of those in the Russian private sector that can be contracted or even commandeered? Many are probably idle due to the sanctions. If [videos circulating on the internet](https://9gag.com/gag/aqGRQ8P) are to be believed, then yes, that’s what they’re doing. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1370 "2022-03-06T17:54:40Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > As war crimes go, putting POWs on TV is barely a war misdemeanor. Exactly. This is sort of like pointing out that when a gang is holed up in a bank with hostages, and the police break the window of a business next door to gain access… “Hey, the police are committing a crime too!!!” ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1371 "2022-03-06T18:03:00Z")
Sure, it’s minor. Until that Russian soldier gets repatriated to Putin’s Russia. The principle that POWs can’t be used for propaganda is to protect their lives. ---
**Author:** ![Morgyn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morgyn/32/3041_2.png) [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1372 "2022-03-06T18:07:37Z")
Amazon UK has a wishlist curated by medical teams in the UK and Ukraine that you can use to donate medical supplies. > ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1373 "2022-03-06T18:18:53Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > It also makes it increasingly harder to believe more serious information like that in the chart in post 1353 above. The proliferation of these silly and increasingly fake propaganda memes is flushing Ukrainian credibility down the toilet. Different targets. The propaganda memes are aimed at the Western general public, and likely aren’t official Ukrainian stuff. Statements about enemy losses are always taken with a grain of salt, and in any event I imagine Western governments/defence agencies have their own estimates. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1374 "2022-03-06T18:26:05Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I saw an article (might have been on BBC) saying that Belarus formations have refused to go into Ukraine. I don’t know how accurate that report is, I was just skimming it in passing, but if true that could mean some serious issues for Belarus, as it would mean this isn’t some officers dragging their feet but the actual soldiers. I wouldn’t be surprised had Lukashenko pretty sweaty palms right now … Basically an autocrat that lost power over its people … I am getting Nicolaí Ceausescu flashbacks maybe he goes _fully italian_ on Putin … ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1375 "2022-03-06T18:29:53Z")
A translation of an alleged report by an active FSB analyst. Despite the warning that it’s long, it’s not actually that long. A few points - analysts were told to write reports showing that Russia could withstand sanctions —- then people in charge believed the reports they asked to be written to tell them just what they wanted to hear - the was supposed to be a blitzkrieg - Russia has lost contact with entire battalions - many of the Russian soldiers are penal conscripts - Russia is trying to find evidence that Ukraine was working on nuclear weapons or dirty bombs to justify the invasion — this goes a long way towards explaining the interest in Chernobyl and the other nuclear plant - dropping a nuke or two on Ukraine is possible - why do you think the Russian nuclear stockpile is in any better shape than the rest of their military equipment? > **[Read and Share Twitter Threads easily!](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.html?fbclid=IwAR0j9Irpgo6qd9C-Bthr9ccaaEcvE-607gZZVcxu1crdNa0KPK_vVHFcZX4)** > > Thread Reader helps you read and share the best of Twitter Threads ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1376 "2022-03-06T18:30:21Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > I am getting Nicolaí Ceausescu flashbacks I imagine that’s the case that worries Putin and Lukashenko the most. December 21, 1989: Ceausescu makes speech to large public group to calm the masses. December 25, 1989: Ceausescu and wife shot by firing squad. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1377 "2022-03-06T18:34:44Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > why do you think the Russian nuclear stockpile is in any better shape than the rest of their military equipment? that is a non-trivial detail … what are the chances that - should nukes be used - a certain portion of them not make it to the border of russia and detonate domestically? that would prob. be spun into "we just got attacked by NATO with nukes " ;o( ---
**Author:** ![JaneDoe42](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/janedoe42/32/14104_2.png) [@JaneDoe42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JaneDoe42)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1378 "2022-03-06T18:44:43Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > why do you think the Russian nuclear stockpile is in any better shape than the rest of their military equipment? This has been my concern all along. I’m especially worried about the older nukes still having solid state fuel. Dad and I used to build and fly rockets that used solid state fuel pods that we would buy at the hobby store. Every so often, we would get one that had been on the shelf too long and part of the fuel was degraded so the rocket would go all sorts of crazy in the air. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1379 "2022-03-06T18:53:29Z")
> **[Letter from Kyiv: Putin’s War on Ukraine is 'Pozor Rossii' - Breaking Defense](https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/letter-from-kyiv-putins-war-on-ukraine-is-pozor-rossii/)** > > Writing from Kyiv, Breaking Defense's Ukraine correspondent grapples with the strategic implications and lessons learned a week after Russia's invasion. > Russian military sources, speaking on background, also now admit the invasion was deeply flawed from the start. “There was no tactical plan,” said one. “Our plan, to the extent that there was one, was to ‘play it by ear’ and to just cope with any resistance as it appeared. This was because the expectation had been that we would take all these cities in one to four days and that Ukraine’s military would be immediately overwhelmed.” > Today “Russia has no more Kalibr missiles [cruise missiles] left in strategic reserve,” said a Ukrainian defense enterprise director familiar with the program, “but that is not the end of their troubles. The guidance system, the seeker head and other critical modules [in the missile’s front end] contain about 60% imported electronic components. None of these will be available after the long list of sanctions being imposed on Russia now, so it is hard to see where any new missiles would ever come from.” > > The Kalibr is not the only program in trouble. One Ukrainian intelligence officer tells Breaking Defense that there are “numerous shortages of [Russian] weapon systems. The famous KBM plant in Tula and other factories controlled by longtime Putin allies the Rothenberg brothers are unable to physically fulfil orders for infantry weapons and ammunition. > > “Weapons that are officially on the books and should be available for delivery to active-duty units are missing and the next production runs will be complete only in three to four months,” the officer said. Even that estimate assumes that the raw material inputs have not been pilfered as well and are still available — if not, the time frame could be considerably longer. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1380 "2022-03-06T18:55:41Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > The principle that POWs can’t be used for propaganda is to protect their lives. Or at least, to protect them from potential retribution. A sad example of this was the renowned humourist P.G. Wodehouse, who was imprisoned by the Germans for several years during World War II. He rather naively agreed to do a series of radio broadcasts from Berlin shortly before his release. These were intended to be nothing more than light-hearted entertainment pieces, but he was viciously attacked for them back in his native Britain: “_The reaction in Britain to Wodehouse’s broadcasts was hostile, and he was 'reviled … as a traitor, collaborator, Nazi propagandist, and a coward_’.” So much so that he ultimately abandoned his homeland and took up residence in the US, where he not only continued writing but became successful on Broadway, collaborating with the likes of Jerome Kern, as well as in Hollywood. He eventually received a British knighthood just six weeks before his death, after earlier efforts had been blocked twice as late as 1971 over those same wartime allegations. Britain did eventually forgive him, but I’m not sure he ever forgave them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=68) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037.md?page=70)