# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037 "2022-02-24T08:30:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 77
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1521 "2022-03-07T21:07:14Z")
It was this appeal that made me question if Zelensky isn’t motivated by a hubris of his own, even if it doesn’t come close to approaching Putin’s. Either he knew how unrealistic a no-fly zone was, and asked for it anyway - to show his people that he’s trying every possible option - or he actually DOESN’T know how unrealistic the request was, and thinks that NATO would actually step up and risk direct engagement with Russia, with all of the horrific implications that would come with the escalation of that conflict. The former scenario is understandable from a PR perspective, even if it’s an impotent gesture. The latter would put my estimation of Zelensky down several notches. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1522 "2022-03-07T21:07:55Z")
He’s just putting pressure on NATO and the west to do more. It’s a maximalist request. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1523 "2022-03-07T21:13:16Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > In that case, you’d better cede the entirely of Europe to Putin. Give him everything, including Britain. Because otherwise he’ll nuke you I certainly agree with you. What bothers me about this whole thing is that if you are correct (and I believe that you are) and I am right (I believe that NATO will be engaged in or over Ukraine within a couple of months), then we should have intervened as soon as possible after the Russian invasion because now we are needlessly standing back as a slaughter ensues. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1524 "2022-03-07T21:15:27Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > It was this appeal that made me question if Zelensky isn’t motivated by a hubris of his own, even if it doesn’t come close to approaching Putin’s. Either he knew how unrealistic a no-fly zone was, and asked for it anyway - to show his people that he’s trying every possible option - or he actually DOESN’T know how unrealistic the request was, and thinks that NATO would actually step up and risk direct engagement with Russia, with all of the horrific implications that would come with the escalation of that conflict. The former scenario is understandable from a PR perspective, even if it’s an impotent gesture. The latter would put my estimation of Zelensky down several notches. It will work with people who really don’t understand what this would actually entail. I’ve seen quite a few people who are angry that NATO doesn’t just magically do this. Whether he realizes this or not I couldn’t say…IIRC, he is actually a comedian, not a military guy, so he might not know. But, from a political perspective, it continues to put pressure on NATO to do something they actually can do, probably it was directed more at his comments about if NATO can’t do it then send them the planes, referencing the possible transfer of MiGs and Su fighters from Poland. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1525 "2022-03-07T21:15:38Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > I think (or at least, I hope) that you’re underestimating the economic pressure that Putin is under because of the ever-increasing sanctions and the high rate of military losses in this war. You may also be underestimating the effect of the ongoing (and even accelerating) rate of weapons shipments into Ukraine and the effectiveness and determination with which they’re being deployed. There’s also the not insignificant factor that practically the whole word is united in solidarity against this aggression. Even Putin must realize by now how badly he’s miscalculated. > > I don’t think anyone can confidently make a prediction about how and when this is going to end. It may well be that Ukraine may have to give up some territory. But it’s far from certain that this is going to be a slam-dunk win for Russia, and I think it’s very doubtful that Ukraine would be willing to give up their independence, democracy, and alignment with the West. In Putin’s terms, “neutrality” means becoming a Russian puppet state. +1 its still quite murky waters here … and I get the feeling we will see interesting power dynamics on the table in weeks/months to come (based on what’s going on in the “theater” and economic front) I have the feeling that time will be friendly to the Ukrainians, unless Russia really manages to get a grip on supply chain issues … Ukr. is fully focussed on fighting **one** war, Putin is fighting at least **3 or 4** wars (military, economic, potentially domestic riots, staying in power) at the same time. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1526 "2022-03-07T21:16:28Z")
I hope someone or many someones are actively talking to China through diplomatic channels, asking them if Russia, Europe and North America in smoking nuclear ruins would be good for business or good for China. Because that’s where we’re headed with a suicidal madman in charge of Russia at the moment. They could stop this tomorrow via non-violent means if the chose. At the moment, they are gambling with the entire world’s survival. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1527 "2022-03-07T21:21:00Z")
China isn’t making the same calculation, nor the same analysis of risk. They don’t see this as escalating to a nuclear exchange. And they are walking a tightrope between their perceived interests (the interests of the CCP and Xi) wrt Russia and a counter to the west and their interests of not getting sanctioned or getting any blowback from this. Then there are their interests in their own plans about Taiwan, and the potential for Russian support when they need it. Plus, they are looking at the main chance…there is a ton of potential money to be made (for China) in all of this. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1528 "2022-03-07T21:24:11Z")
Yes, I can see the one side of what China **thinks** they are going to gain from this. The case needs to be made to them about what they stand to lose. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1529 "2022-03-07T21:27:24Z")
I agree. At a minimum I think we should be conveying how displeased we’d be if/when China tries to break the sanctions…or gets caught helping Russia circumvent them. The problem is…India. If we pound China for this, will we pound India as well? And, if so, what is that likely to do with our hope for a deeper alliance with India as a counter to China? Both countries would take an attempt by the west to force their hand…badly. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1530 "2022-03-07T21:30:32Z")
> [@mordecaiB](#): > > A neat trick would be to get China to amass 500,000 troops on the Russian border for “maneuvers.” That’ll grab Putin’s attention. Unfortunately, that has about as much chance of happening as the World Court stopping a genocide. you could get that **realistically** way easier … Biden just needs to stage a huge huge concentration of expensive steel in Alaska … throw in lots and lots of amphibious landing material and invite the brits, japs, aussies, french and germans to join. repeat saying _“it’s just maneuvers, we will never invade russia from alaska”_ over and over again… just to mindfuck them there is no other way for the russian to send troops there … -\>cost, loss of focus, more conscripts needed, transport vehicles, supply chain,… ---
**Author:** ![mordecaiB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mordecaib/32/7725_2.png) [@mordecaiB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mordecaiB)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1531 "2022-03-07T21:36:23Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > They don’t even have to move any troops. If China announced that as of tomorrow, all exports and imports to and from Russia have stopped; That they will enforce all sanctions… Russia would be out of Ukraine as fast as they could move. Unfortunately, that won’t happen either. China only does China, they are not really interested doing anything in this situation except for some platitudes. > [@Al128](#): > > Biden just needs to stage a huge huge concentration of expensive steel in Alaska … throw in lots and lots of amphibious landing material and invite the brits, japs, aussies, french and germans to join. You read too many Tom Clancy books. None of the countries you listed as joining the US has any way to get troops or equipment to Alaska, much less do an amphibious landing anywhere. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1532 "2022-03-07T21:41:41Z")
> [@mordecaiB](#): > > Unfortunately, that won’t happen either. China only does China, they are not really interested doing anything in this situation except for some platitudes. China appears to enjoy having customers for it’s stuff. It needs to be explained to them that smoking rubble does not produce a lot of good customers with disposable income. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1533 "2022-03-07T21:47:58Z")
Again, I agree…but, consider. If you were to go back in time and tell Putin how bad an idea all of this would be, how the west would unite in bringing the sanction pain, and how poorly his military would do in Ukraine…do you expect he’d believe you? The thing with autocratic dictator…and, let’s be honest here, that is exactly what Xi is…is that they hear what they want to hear, and they have lots of folks around them who are willing, even eager (or, at a minimum motivated to save their own skins) to tell them exactly what they want to hear. We are seeing the classic example of this in Putin and his war here. And Xi is no different. He isn’t going to believe that this thing is going to go nuclear…and he probably still thinks Russia will win and that China will come out of this ahead. If not, his contingency is probably to, at some point, go along with western sanctions just as much as China has to…all the while trying to help Russia under the table as much as he can get away with. But that’s a contingency…the original plan, pretty obviously, was that China would help Russia avoid whatever small sanction blowback there was by China opening up new markets for Russia in wheat, gas, oil and coal (and opening up new markets in return for Chinese goods and services). ---
**Author:** ![Morgyn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morgyn/32/3041_2.png) [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1534 "2022-03-07T21:48:22Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Whether he realizes this or not I couldn’t say…IIRC, he is actually a comedian, not a military guy, so he might not know. He is a comedian, but he’s also a lawyer. Neither gives him military expertise, but both require an ability to analyze events and people and a sharp wit if you want to be good. No idea how he is as a lawyer, but he’s apparently one of Ukraine’s most popular comedians, or was before he became president. ---
**Author:** ![engineer\_comp\_geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/engineer_comp_geek/32/504_2.png) [@engineer\_comp\_geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/engineer_comp_geek)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1535 "2022-03-07T21:48:46Z")
**Moderator Note** > [@Al128](#): > > japs While this used to be a common way to refer to Japanese people, it is considered an offensive slur these days. Don’t use it on the SDMB, please. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1536 "2022-03-07T21:56:17Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > In that case, you’d better cede the entirely of Europe to Putin. Give him everything, including Britain. Because otherwise he’ll nuke you. Why stop at Britain. He’ll keep going. He’s going to take everything until he gets to something China wants and then nukes are back on the table anyway. > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > China appears to enjoy having customers for it’s stuff. > > It needs to be explained to them that smoking rubble does not produce a lot of good customers with disposable income. I think they’re clear on that part. Putin setting off nukes is in no one’s best interests. I believe what is becoming clear to them is that Putin is a threat to the world economy. It may be helpful to China to have Russia destabilizing the US but Putin is now a liability. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1537 "2022-03-07T21:57:12Z")
> [@mordecaiB](#): > > You read too many Tom Clancy books. None of the countries you listed as joining the US has any way to get troops or equipment to Alaska, much less do an amphibious landing anywhere. you misunderstand the point is: you never plan (nor do you want ) to do an invasion at all… just by amassing troops and assorted hardware in alaska, you OBLIGE .ru to send a few batallons to their right-coast (which is awfully far away!!! … b/c they cannot NOT send them … You kinda open a 2nd front there without going to war at all … and once the russian dug all their heels in, you make a big BBQ, say thanks fellow brits, time to go home now … the russians would still be busy 3 months later bringing back their stranded vehicles 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1538 "2022-03-07T21:59:49Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > you could get that **realistically** way easier … If this was a game of Risk, played on the kitchen table… ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1539 "2022-03-07T21:59:58Z")
I don’t believe that they would think it’s a credible threat…because it wouldn’t be. Even supporting such an endeavor would strain US logistics hard (a multi-national credible invasion force in Alaska threatening, what? A Bering Strait invasion into Siberia??) even if they just sat in Alaska and did nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/1540 "2022-03-07T22:00:01Z")
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