# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 111
**Author:** ![mordecaiB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mordecaib/32/7725_2.png) [@mordecaiB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mordecaiB)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2023, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2219 "2023-02-14T22:07:23Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > Ukraine, your parcel has arrived at the Bremerhaven sorting facility: > > [https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1625574622434320387](https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1625574622434320387) Yeah, that’s gonna help a bit. I wonder if they have time to paint the > camouflage blotches are made up of NAFO Shiba Inu Fellas and HIMARS rocket launchers. Stencils are pretty quick and that is actually pretty good camo, looks a bit like digital from a distance. Plus, the whole humor thing. > [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > If it does, it will have taken Russia half a year and likely tens of thousands of casualties, as pretty much their main battlefield focus over this time, to capture Ukraine’s 58th largest settlement. That’s the info with the real impact: Russia’s losses in personnel and equipment, not Ukraine losing one city. Especially if it turns out that Russia lost 5000 naval infantry trying to accomplish it. Those were well trained troops, no way they get replaced easy or quick. At this point, even if Russia emptied all their prisons and forced them into combat roles, I’m not sure it would make any difference in the long run. It appears they don’t even have an artillery umbrella to cover maneuvering troops anymore. Too busy shelling civilians, I guess. They desperately need something big, like air superiority for infantry cover. I just don’t see that happening. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2023, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2220 "2023-02-14T22:23:50Z")
> [@mordecaiB](#): > > At this point, even if Russia emptied all their prisons and forced them into combat roles, I’m not sure it would make any difference in the long run. What you would see is a LONG RUN. Then the convicts would beg for food or just become convicts again and do whatever they need to do to survive. Somehow. General question - Do Ukrainian citizens have guns of there own? Hunting rifles? Stuff like that. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2023, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2221 "2023-02-14T22:29:03Z")
Plenty of dropped Russian weapons to go around. ---
**Author:** ![mordecaiB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mordecaib/32/7725_2.png) [@mordecaiB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mordecaiB)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2023, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2222 "2023-02-14T23:09:07Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > Do Ukrainian citizens have guns of there own? Hunting rifles? Stuff like that. At the very beginning, I saw a few hunting type rifles and shotguns. Since then, I’m not sure I’ve even seen a civilian toting anything when going about their lives. I’ll need to pay more attention to that. > [@silenus](#): > > Plenty of dropped Russian weapons to go around. And tanks, IFVs, APCs … And if you find a dead Russian, you may get a rifle and a spare magazine! No guarantee on the magazine. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2223 "2023-02-15T00:01:35Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > It’s good if that motivates more military assistance, but I don’t buy that Russia is holding any significant conventional forces back. They’re losing and losing and losing, occasional meaningless villages notwithstanding, and Putin’s been revealed to be an uninformed buffoon rather than some sort of military chessmaster. If he has tons of aircraft sitting and not fighting, it’s because he doesn’t have the pilots, doesn’t have the supplies and ammunition, or the aircraft aren’t working. They’ve been holding back their air force this whole time. They never have made any major effort to gain air superiority. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2224 "2023-02-15T00:09:23Z")
If that’s true, then it’s because they don’t have the capability. Not enough pilots, not enough ammo, inadequate maintenance and supplies, or something else. I’ve read anecdotally that Russian pilots are not cooperating with risky missions - they take off, fly a bit, avoid radar or engagement range, maybe launch missiles or release bombs at a meaningless target, and then go back home. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2225 "2023-02-15T00:26:07Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If that’s true, then it’s because they don’t have the capability. Not enough pilots, not enough ammo, inadequate maintenance and supplies, or something else. I’ve read anecdotally that Russian pilots are not cooperating with risky missions - they take off, fly a bit, avoid radar or engagement range, maybe launch missiles or release bombs at a meaningless target, and then go back home. This sort of thing has been a phenomenon since the dawn of aerial combat. Frightened, unmotivated pilots are useless. > [@Chronos](#): > > The whole point of aircraft is that they can move quickly. Many of them, you can fly from remote bases, hit the target, and fly back home (some of the US planes that fought in Iraq flew from the US and back for each mission). Those planes would have been strategic bombers though, the only planes that could do that, and which are not as easily staged closer to the battlefield as a small fighter. Russia isn’t going to put their strategic bombers close to Ukraine, but it makes a great deal of sense to stage smaller warplanes closer. Time spent in the air flying in from further away is wasted, it’s fuel burned, engine hours used up, and the some planes meant to loiter over the battlefield it’s time they can’t do that, plus running two sorties a day becomes impossible. In any event, Ukraine is a big country. If you want to hit a target well inside it, your Su-24 can’t be that far from the border or it cannot get there. A more plausible explanation for Russia’s failure to bring substantial air power to bear so far as that they lack enough working airplanes to do so. They have other air defense needs, and keeping military aircraft running and effective is really hard. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2226 "2023-02-15T00:30:13Z")
while I see those good “collective” reasons in the past 10 or 20 posts for not doing it, I simply cannot fathom Puting losing the war, while having 80% of his AF sitting on the ground … doing nothing … I think as the noose tightens further, he **needs** to up-the-ante - he has NOTHING to show to any critics … some say the losses are not sustainable for RU, but I also see the lukewarm results are not politically sustainable, esp. when 100.000 - 150k+ deaths are eventually starting to sink in and filter through. They are averaging 5k death per week now (and that’s conservative) I also don’t buy the “they don’t have pilots” reasoning … **Is there any evidence of that?** normally you have (correct me pls) 2,3 or 4 crews for each airframe … and this war is now 1 year old, and I can’t see them NOT training pilots (if it were so) … and I am sure they could easily “bully” commercial pilots into training-courses (if it were a scarcity of pilots) … they came up with all kinds of BS-laws lately — this would be just one more ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2227 "2023-02-15T00:39:27Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > I also don’t buy the “they don’t have pilots” reasoning … **Is there any evidence of that?** normally you have (correct me pls) 2,3 or 4 crews for each airframe … and this war is now 1 year old, and I can’t see them NOT training pilots (if it were so) … There’s two factors you need to consider. First, training good pilots is incredibly expensive. With what we’ve seen with corruption in the Russian military so far, it’s not a stretch to think someone might have been pilfering training funds for the last decade or two. So they might have “pilots”, but those pilots might just suck. Secondly, every major nation knows that gaining air supremacy or superiority is key to winning large battles these days. Remember the early days of the war, when Russian tanks were getting blown up all over the place? That wouldn’t have happened nearly as often if the Russians had been able to put air cover in place. The fact that they barely even tried to gain air supremacy suggests that they know they can’t achieve it. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2228 "2023-02-15T01:06:44Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > cannot fathom Puting losing the war, while having 80% of his AF sitting on the ground … doing nothing … As much as it pains my Air Force veteran soul to say, air forces do not win wars, except for one time\*. Aircraft, even executing continuing bombardment, do not take or hold ground. You can bomb a nation into the stone age, but that does not force capitulation or capture ground. So what can Putin do with his air force? Tactical or theater attack focused on eliminating standing formations at the battlefront or reserves. Interdiction of Ukranian supply lines beyond the reach of his artillery. Knock down air defenses around his other preferred targets, like cities full of civilians. Not sure what else might be worth risking his largely irreplaceable air power. And he has to preserve the best part of it – his strategic bomber force – to constitute his nuclear striking ability. \*What happens if Putin tries to repeat the Hiroshima/Nagasaki gambit is a topic for another thread, as has been attested repeatedly by mod instructions. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2229 "2023-02-15T01:11:21Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Not enough pilots, not enough ammo, inadequate maintenance and supplies, or something else. Mostly something else - Ukrainian air defenses. There have been several analyses of this. I posted a video one above, [here’s a slightly more detailed written version](https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdf) from November. The Russian air force remains both quantitatively and qualitatively superior to the Ukrainian air force, but it has been rendered relatively toothless substantially due to it’s failure to effectively suppress Ukraine’s Soviet-made ground-based air defenses. The biggest threat is Ukraine exhausting its missile supply defending against the constant barrage of missile and drone attacks. The latter in particular is a problem because a cheaply made drone is a big enough threat it can’t be ignored, but it is way cheaper and quicker to make than the precision missile used to destroy it. Hopefully Euro/US supplies of Western air defense systems happens quickly enough to supplement and eventually replace the Soviet systems that have been doing a yeoman’s job defending Ukraine. Ukraine will also eventually need modern combat aircraft, because the planes they have are badly outclassed by the more modern versions in the Russian arsenal. Russian CAPs flying carefully on the Russian side of the line have a big advantage in weapons range and look down/shoot down capability. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2230 "2023-02-15T01:13:11Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > The camouflage scheme on this NAFO-donated fleet of vehicles is pretty cool: It is, and thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2231 "2023-02-15T01:34:46Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > There’s two factors you need to consider. First, training good pilots is incredibly expensive. With what we’ve seen with corruption in the Russian military so far, it’s not a stretch to think someone might have been pilfering training funds for the last decade or two. So they might have “pilots”, but those pilots might just suck. but there is a HUGE qualitative difference between “they don’t have pilots” … and “their pilots are poorly trained” … the later I can easily believe, the former, not so much … > [@gnoitall](#): > > As much as it pains my Air Force veteran soul to say, air forces do not win wars, except for one time\*. Aircraft, even executing continuing bombardment, do not take or hold ground. You can bomb a nation into the stone age, but that does not force capitulation or capture ground. isn’t exactly THIS the russian doctrine/way of conducting a war? … Mariupol (successful) comes to mind , Bakhmut as well… hence, I can see Putin playing this card later on when the political heat gets turned up on him (or he has this impression) … I think he keeps this ace up his sleve, as aereal and nautic losses are highly visible and visually very impactful … so if the internet gets saturated with downed RU aircraft on a daily basis, will also not help him too much … but it might be a hail-mary move … better die next month than today … so send all you got with wings to fly havoc over Kiew … surely russian TV would celebrate ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2232 "2023-02-15T02:46:13Z")
I have never understood why things can be expensive in Russia when the government can have people executed at whim. ---
**Author:** ![Balance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Balance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balance)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2233 "2023-02-15T03:07:24Z")
Executing people doesn’t suddenly give you more resources, unless the resource you need is human corpses. “Expensive” means it consumes things the government doesn’t have to spare. To some extent, it can be mitigated by forcing people to give you things on pain of death, but if the things you need just aren’t available–whether those things are raw metal, advanced semiconductor components, or just time–then killing people doesn’t get you more of those things. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2234 "2023-02-15T04:48:45Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Russia GDP = 1.8 trillion (probably less now) > NATO GDP - 46 trillion. > > Russia’s economic output is less than Italy’s. Even during the Cold War the then-Soviet Union was described as a 3rd-world country – with nukes. If only corruption and paranoia hadn’t taken over when it collapsed. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2235 "2023-02-15T06:09:47Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > If only corruption and paranoia hadn’t taken over when it collapsed. Russia has been corrupt and paranoid for centuries - it didn’t start in 1991. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2236 "2023-02-15T07:52:17Z")
True enough, but the slate was wiped clean then. Old habits prevailed. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 9:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2237 "2023-02-15T09:44:25Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > And I wonder if they have mine detection equipment. I sort of doubt it. Seems to me their “mine detection equipment” is largely troops they view as disposable… > [@chappachula](#): > > I am sad today. > It looks like Russia’s tactics are working. Sacrifice enough soldiers as canon fodder, and quantity is all that matters, despite low quality equipment and logistics. Yes, numbers matter. But there is a limit to how much any army can bleed. Losing/gaining is common in war. Sometimes, Russia will win. It is sad, but winning a particular battle is not the same as winning the war. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2238 "2023-02-15T12:55:21Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > > [@DesertDog](#): > > > > If only corruption and paranoia hadn’t taken over when it collapsed. > > Russia has been corrupt and paranoid for centuries - it didn’t start in 1991. They had their chance, but rejected the opportunity. In a different universe the front line in the war between democracy and authoritarianism might very well be the Russia - China border rather than the Russia - Ukraine border. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=110) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=112)