# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\
**Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 112

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**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\
**Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2239 "2023-02-15T13:05:05Z")

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### And with that I ask the conversation about Russian history come to an end in this thread. It doesn’t really belong in this thread. Great subject for a new thread though.

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**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\
**Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2240 "2023-02-15T18:19:07Z")

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Russian and Ukrainian tank inventories according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS):

[![](https://www.iiss.org/-/media/images/publications/military-balance/2023/milbal-2023_russia-and-ukraine-main-battle-tank-inventories.jpg?h=487&la=en&mw=865&w=865&hash=D93659841FCF6AB155C7835ABABD2C49BCA3D49F) ](https://www.iiss.org/-/media/images/publications/military-balance/2023/milbal-2023_russia-and-ukraine-main-battle-tank-inventories.jpg?h=487&la=en&mw=865&w=865&hash=D93659841FCF6AB155C7835ABABD2C49BCA3D49F)

> **[John Chipman's Military Balance launch event remarks](https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2023/02/john-chipmans-military-balance-launch-event-remarks)**
>
> John Chipman's Military Balance launch event remarks

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**Author:** ![Tatterdemalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/43a26b/32.png) [@Tatterdemalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tatterdemalion)\
**Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2241 "2023-02-15T19:25:31Z")

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On a lighter note, It appears that the war is causing all kinds of new and different problems for Russian men.

> **[With Russia’s Viagra supply cut off, authorities look to generics as backup](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/15/russia-viagra-sanctions-ukraine-war/)**
>
> Medications are not subject to sanctions levied in response to the Kremlin's war in Ukraine, but supplies of the erectile dysfunction remedy have been disrupted.

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**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\
**Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2242 "2023-02-15T20:23:03Z")

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> [@Broomstick](#):
>
> but winning a particular battle is not the same as winning the war.

I’ll go one step further - Since recapturing Kherson, Ukraine has been conducting a defense in depth, trading space for time. This tactic causes Russia to incur the highest losses possible in terms of both personnel and equipment. “Winning” ground by moving forward is not even a victory, so long as Russia is unable to keep pace with its losses and Ukr continues to receive weapons, supplies and training from the West.

I expect to see Ukr forces continue to make limited measured withdrawals over the next several weeks. What I don’t expect to see happen is Ukraine forces fleeing in panic as their lines break and Russian forces rapidly advancing through the gaps in the lines. That would be the Russians winning and Ukraine losing.

Once training is complete and the armor and other weapons systems promised by the West arrive, THEN we can expect to see an actual coordinated combined arms offensive. Conducted by Ukrainians. All the folks panicking will likely be the untrained Russian mobiks.

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**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\
**Post date:** [February 15, 2023, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2243 "2023-02-15T23:07:18Z")

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> [@DesertDog](#):
>
> Even during the Cold War the then-Soviet Union was described as a 3rd-world country – with nukes.

Nitpick: By definition soviet Russia was a [Second World Country.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_World)

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2244 "2023-02-16T03:57:06Z")

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It has to be extremely frustrating for Ukraine.

Guardian Blog

> [@](#):
>
> **Ukraine’s allies have said it is unlikely they will be able to supply the number of tanks previously promised.** After a meeting in Brussels of western defence ministers, the German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, said [they would not be able reach the size of a battalion.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/15/russia-ukraine-war-live-nato-members-meet-for-final-day-of-summit-ukrainian-children-sent-to-russian-re-education-camps?page=with:block-63ed19c98f0892f0cefe58c5#block-63ed19c98f0892f0cefe58c5) The bad news comes just after the Nato chief, Jens Stoltenberg, announced that [Russia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) had begun a renewed offensive in the east in an attempt to take more territory before new western equipment arrives in the spring.

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**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2245 "2023-02-16T07:01:39Z")

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> [@Buck\_Godot](#):
>
> Nitpick: By definition soviet Russia was a [Second World Country.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_World)

The description was a deliberate insult. The USSR _would_ have been 3rd world but for the nukes.

No, not entirely accurate but what insult is?

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**Author:** ![mordecaiB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mordecaib/32/7725_2.png) [@mordecaiB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mordecaiB)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 8:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2246 "2023-02-16T08:34:47Z")

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> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> It has to be extremely frustrating for Ukraine.

This is bad news, it was originally to be two battalions. Less than a battalion (Ukrainian battalion contains 31 tanks) of useable Leopards from western Europe. A battalion from eastern Europe but many need various repairs before they can be used. And delivery date looks like late April.

Ukraine needs to have a really wet late winter/early spring to make overland travel for tanks impossible.

> **[German defense minister says Ukraine to receive fewer Leopard tanks than...](https://kyivindependent.com/german-defense-minister-says-ukraine-to-receive-fewer-leopard-tanks-than-promised/)**
>
> Western allies will not be able to supply Ukraine with two full battalions of Leopard 2 tanks as they previously promised, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Feb. 15, according to Bloomberg.

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**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2247 "2023-02-16T11:10:15Z")

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> [@DesertDog](#):
>
> The description was a deliberate insult. The USSR _would_ have been 3rd world but for the nukes.
> 
> No, not entirely accurate but what insult is?

the fact that in 2023 toilet-bowls still make the russian LOOT-TOP-10, tells you a thing or two

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**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2248 "2023-02-16T11:33:54Z")

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> [@Cardigan](#):
>
> All the folks panicking will likely be the untrained Russian mobiks.

[Or the prisoners Russia is still sending to the front lines.](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/europe/russian-army-prisoners-conscripts-ukraine-intl/index.html)

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**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2249 "2023-02-16T14:11:03Z")

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> [@Love\_Rhombus](#):
>
> Or the prisoners Russia is still sending to the front lines.

It seems like Russia is still recruiting prisoners, only now they are inducted into the regular Russian army rather than as Wagnerites.

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**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2250 "2023-02-16T14:34:12Z")

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Estimated 97% of Russia’s army is now deployed to Ukraine. I’d say that qualifies as ‘all in’.

[Nearly Russia’s entire army is in Ukraine, suffering ‘1st World War levels of attrition,’ U.K. says (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nearly-russia-s-entire-army-is-in-ukraine-suffering-1st-world-war-levels-of-attrition-u-k-says/ar-AA17yo59?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c292542408174242be792584f5a16678)

I’m more and more convinced Ukraine can win this, but we’ve GOT to get as many heavy weapons in their hands as possible.

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**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2251 "2023-02-16T20:21:12Z")

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from the article:

_London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies [estimated Wednesday](https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-likely-lost-more-than-half-of-its-tanks-in-ukraine-estimates-show-c23dabc2) that Russia has lost between 100,000 and 150,000 troops to death or injury in Ukraine, along with [more than 2,000 tanks](https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1020877/russia-has-lost-more-than-1500-battle-tanks-in-ukraine-war-dutch-war), including half the country’s modern tanks. Wallace [cited reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/world/europe/russia-military-vuhledar-ukraine.html) that “a whole Russian brigade was effectively annihilated” in Moscow’s assault on Vuhledar, where Russia “lost over 1,000 people in two days.”_

given that every wave of new conscripts will be more inept than the (already rather inept ones before) … this is not looking good for russia …

their offensives are not going anywhere, they lost 1000 “elite” troops in 2 days worth of attacks in Vuledar … I am not sure what makes them elite, though …

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**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2252 "2023-02-16T20:48:22Z")

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Latest Russian window-related death:

> [@](#):
>
> A Russian defense official has died after falling from a window of a building in St. Petersburg, according to local media reports.
> 
> The body of 58-year-old Marina Yankina, who headed the Financial Support Department of the Russian Defense Ministry in St. Petersburg’s Western Military District, was found on Wednesday morning, Fontanka reported.
> 
> Police found her body under the windows of a high-rise building on Zamshina Street in the Kalininsky district of St. Petersburg.

> **[Russian defense official falls from window to her death](https://www.newsweek.com/marina-yankina-russian-defense-official-window-death-1781713)**
>
> A local Telegram channel reported documents were left on a balcony of the building where Marina Yankina fell.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2253 "2023-02-16T21:20:59Z")

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> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#):
>
> Financial Support Department of the Russian Defense Ministry

Russian Defenstration Ministry, belike.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![mordecaiB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mordecaib/32/7725_2.png) [@mordecaiB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mordecaiB)\
**Post date:** [February 16, 2023, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2254 "2023-02-16T21:59:54Z")

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> [@gnoitall](#):
>
> Russian Defenstration Ministry, belike.

If the Russian army worked as well as the Defenestration Ministry, they would have won the war in a week. Defenestration seems to have a 100% kill rate.

Good article about the future of the war. Covers everything from dragging on for years to a negotiated settlement. A bit long but a lot of good points raised. The one that worries me a lot is that NATO countries will get tired of the war if it drags on into a third year, then a fourth year. I fear if Ukraine is forced to peace talks, they will end up losing territory and Russia will chalk up a big win for domestic consumption. After all, they only started this “special operation” to get rid of the Nazis. And look! No Nazis!

> **[When will the Russia-Ukraine war end? Experts offer their predictions.](https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/02/13/when-will-the-war-in-ukraine-end-experts-offer-their-predictions/)**
>
> First were the helmets, then the Leopard tanks. The evolving approach of sending aid to Ukraine fits a conflict as fluid as it is unpredictable.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [February 17, 2023, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2255 "2023-02-17T01:14:20Z")

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> [@gnoitall](#):
>
> As much as it pains my Air Force veteran soul to say, air forces do not win wars, except for one time\*.

Air forces don’t win wars by themselves. But they sure do help the ground forces to win wars.

And if you’re keeping your air force away from a war so you don’t lose them, how is that any different from having already lost them?

> [@mordecaiB](#):
>
> The one that worries me a lot is that NATO countries will get tired of the war if it drags on into a third year, then a fourth year.

If it drags on for three or four years, it’ll be our own fault, for not supporting Ukraine more strongly.

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**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\
**Post date:** [February 17, 2023, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2256 "2023-02-17T01:31:55Z")

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> [@mordecaiB](#):
>
> After all, they only started this “special operation” to get rid of the Nazis. And look! No Nazis!

“Why do you keep snapping your fingers?”

“To keep away the elephants.”

“Elephants? There aren’t any elephants within 500 miles of here.”

“See? It works!”

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\
**Post date:** [February 17, 2023, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2257 "2023-02-17T01:38:34Z")

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> [@Chronos](#):
>
> And if you’re keeping your air force away from a war so you don’t lose them, how is that any different from having already lost them?

Well, if you’ve committed them and lost them, no-one can say you’re holding them back in order to be nice (or something like that), and you can’t use them to threaten people.

Plus, I guess you could still sell them for some liquid cash.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\
**Post date:** [February 17, 2023, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2258 "2023-02-17T02:03:57Z")

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> [@Chronos](#):
>
> And if you’re keeping your air force away from a war so you don’t lose them, how is that any different from having already lost them?

ISTR the British kept their battleships in harbour, so as not to risk them. WWI, after the Battle of Jutland? I don’t remember.

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