# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 117
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2340 "2023-02-21T13:37:19Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > I thought we used to get those specific numbers, particularly for the himars ammo. If they always obfuscated like this, then yeah, all good. Any chance pretty much _all_ the numbers we’ve been getting are routinely obfuscated? I don’t know one way or the other. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2341 "2023-02-21T13:38:16Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > I mean, there was zero chance a single missile would hit Kyiv while Biden was there. The Russians don’t want to fight a war with the United States, either, and killing the President would be a clear casus belli. I’m not so sure, … you could still have a weak-sauce missile-attack on Kiew (just “because” and have Joe run for shelter in front of cameras) … w/out a chance of killing Joe. kiew is not a small town … population-wise it would be the 3rd biggest city in the US - bigger than Chicago … ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2342 "2023-02-21T13:38:17Z")
That’s a fair point. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2343 "2023-02-21T13:43:08Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > But from an opsec standpoint, wouldn’t you rather it be something vague as opposed to announcing 37,320 shells so the Russians know precisely how many Ukr is getting? “I know what you’re thinking: did he fire six shots, or only five?” ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2344 "2023-02-21T13:47:35Z")
Bakhmut is holding for dear life: now did the Ukrainians fire 37,320 counter-battery rounds or only 37,319?.. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2345 "2023-02-21T13:47:51Z")
Did the USA announced numbers for Lend Lease in WWII? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2346 "2023-02-21T13:48:31Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > I’m not so sure, … you could still have a weak-sauce missile-attack on Kiew (just “because” and have Joe run for shelter in front of cameras) … w/out a chance of killing Joe. If Russia started launching missiles at Kyiv while Biden was there, the USAF would have sent the jets it had to have had on standby to neutralize the source of the fire, in order to protect the president, and the result would have been the same. Nobody gets to shoot in the general direction of the President of the United States and live. All in all, it was a good thing the Russians didn’t try anything. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2347 "2023-02-21T14:22:30Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Good. Let Russia waste money it doesn’t have on more nukes it won’t use. And let the US announce that they’re investing $100Billion in new “Super Nukes”. Doesn’t even have to be a real thing, Russia will still panic. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2348 "2023-02-21T14:38:24Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > If Russia started launching missiles at Kyiv while Biden was there, the USAF would have sent the jets it had to have had on standby to neutralize the source of the fire, in order to protect the president, and the result would have been the same. Nobody gets to shoot in the general direction of the President of the United States and live. > > All in all, it was a good thing the Russians didn’t try anything. while I completely agree with your last sentence - you are aware that Kiew is rougly 60miles/100km from Belarus, where missiles are being fired on a fairly ongoing basis … … whereas the closest possible US-plane would be 600+km away … … my point - had Putin interest in expanding the war, this would have been a good moment for him… from a plausible deniability POV. A group of F-16 or F-35s flying into Belarus airspace from UKR while being engaged by a few AA-S400s (and possibly partially downed) … could easiy be spun from the RU into: "_While we were busy with our military operation, the US/Nato was attacking BERU / RU 600km behind the NATO border, and deep in the heartland - Seit 5:45 Uhr wird jetzt zurückgeschossen_. … while showing a steaming heap of one or two F-whatevers, downed by them. Again, possibly not the smartest move, but if P. wants to drag BERU into the war and expand it, this would have presented a good moment. Pics. of Biden having to take off and being threatened while on the train could easily make for a messy “narrative” - and all of you who remember the 1980 Iran hostage crisis (and its impact on Carter’s presidency) - can visualize that this might be the shot of oxygen that D.Trump needs for running/winning in 2024 - AND THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN A HUGE P. WIN. glad it didn’t - but the point stands - there was a lot of “reputational” risk involved for Biden and the RU could easily have “brought him into a tricky situation” mod: if that post is "too far out " feel free to lock it/move it/burn it with fire ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2349 "2023-02-21T15:15:05Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > > [@EllisDee](#): > > > > I thought we used to get those specific numbers, particularly for the himars ammo. If they always obfuscated like this, then yeah, all good. > > Any chance pretty much _all_ the numbers we’ve been getting are routinely obfuscated? I don’t know one way or the other. Someone, with more time than me, could run the numbers against Benford’s Law. > **[Benford's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law)** > > Benford's law, also known as the Newcomb–Benford law, the law of anomalous numbers, or the first-digit law, is an observation that in many real-life sets of numerical data, the leading digit is likely to be small. In sets that obey the law, the number 1 appears as the leading significant digit about 30% of the time, while 9 appears as the leading significant digit less than 5% of the time. If the digits were distributed uniformly, they would each occur about 11.1% of the time. Benford's law ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2350 "2023-02-21T15:24:10Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Did the USA announced numbers for Lend Lease in WWII ? That’s a good question. I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2351 "2023-02-21T15:25:08Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Did the USA announced numbers for Lend Lease in WWII? Can you imagine the stroke Putin would have if the US acquired a couple L.L. bases and ports in Ukraine? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2352 "2023-02-21T18:59:14Z")
He would just see it as confirmation of his world view. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2353 "2023-02-21T19:48:03Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > All in all, it was a good thing the Russians didn’t try anything. Given the Russians had been alerted a few hours in advance, I daresay part of the communication was a clear statement of what would happen if any harm to the President was even remotely attempted. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2354 "2023-02-21T19:56:02Z")
Indeed. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2355 "2023-02-21T20:07:55Z")
I would imagine that something was in place less provocative than having a squadron of F-22s flying near Russian airspace at mach 2. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2356 "2023-02-21T20:18:13Z")
Lend Lease numbers were publicized, used as propaganda for foreign countries (to give aid and comfort to our allies and to intimidate our enemies) and also to bolster domestic support for the war. There’s a [booklet](https://www.floridamemory.com/items/show/324365?id=20) about LL used for domestic consumption; here to rebut charges by isolationists that LL was only benefitting our allies, not ourselves. I’ve made the web reference go directly to the page that shows itemized total shipments to the USSR by the time of the booklet’s publication - LL to other Allies is generally given therein by dollar value. A lot of the arguments in it, frankly, could be used for the current Ukraine situation as well - how can lives be weighed against goods, and how the U.S. benefits from a better world in the long run through the provision of Lend Lease. It’s a good quick read, naturally written in very simple terms. directed against the America Firsters of the 1940s. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2357 "2023-02-21T20:23:11Z")
Thanks, Sunup. My total knowledge of Lend Lease was FDR speaking about loaning a hose to a neighbor with a burning house. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Bredin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@John\_Bredin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Bredin)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2358 "2023-02-21T20:33:23Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > Pics. of Biden having to take off and being threatened while on the train could easily make for a messy “narrative” - and all of you who remember the 1980 Iran hostage crisis (and its impact on Carter’s presidency) - can visualize that this might be the shot of oxygen that D.Trump needs for running/winning in 2024 - AND THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN A HUGE P. WIN. > > glad it didn’t - but the point stands - there was a lot of “reputational” risk involved for Biden and the RU could easily have “brought him into a tricky situation” Alternatively, if Biden walking around Kyiv with air-raid sirens going off\* is good PR, showing solidarity with Ukraine and personal courage, then Kyiv or the President’s train coming under fire while Biden was there would’ve been even better PR (albeit _ **not** _ something I would hope for). Ducking – more realistically, going into a bomb shelter – isn’t a lack of courage, even if certain elements of the media would spin it otherwise. It’s not the same thing, of course, but Buckingham Palace being bombed in the London Blitz didn’t cause the British public to wonder what the royal family was doing in harm’s way, it caused them to respect them more. \*I understand the sirens were a call to a moment of silence, not an actual air-raid warning. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2023, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2359 "2023-02-21T20:51:07Z")
> [@John\_Bredin](#): > > It’s not the same thing, of course, but Buckingham Palace being bombed in the London Blitz didn’t cause the British public to wonder what the royal family was doing in harm’s way, it caused them to respect them more. Especially after the Queen (Consort) got to talk about it (ETA: quote not from John\_Bredin, but pasted from Wikipedia): > Elizabeth said, “I’m glad we’ve been bombed. It makes me feel I can look the East End in the face.” It’s that kind of statement of defiance and shared sacrifice that Zelenskyy made when he said “I don’t need a ride, I need ammunition.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=116) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=118)