### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/228 "2022-11-04T01:02:19Z")
>
It’s speculated - by Russian milbloggers - that this is to avoid the ignominy of yet another video of Ukrainian soldiers taking down the Russian flag, stamping on it and restoring a Ukrainian flag to the pole.
There are indications that the liberation of Kherson may be approaching.
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### Author:  [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/229 "2022-11-04T02:47:23Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#):
>
> It’s speculated - by Russian milbloggers - that this is to avoid the ignominy of yet another video of Ukrainian soldiers taking down the Russian flag, stamping on it and restoring a Ukrainian flag to the pole.
>
> There are indications that the liberation of Kherson may be approaching.
There’s speculation on the Ukrainian side that this may be an effort to deceive. The numbers of Russian troops on the west bank of the Dnieper appear to have increased recently.
[Russian flag comes down in Kherson, but Ukraine sees a trap (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/russian-flag-comes-down-in-kherson-but-ukraine-sees-a-trap/ar-AA13IuHa)
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/230 "2022-11-04T03:16:29Z")
Here’s another article on the subject:
> **[Ukraine Situation Report: Russian Flag Removal In Kherson City Is A Trap Kyiv...](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-flag-removal-in-kherson-city-is-a-trap-kyiv-says)**
>
> There are indications that Russia may be abandoning Kherson City, but Ukraine says they are digging in for a long fight.
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### Author:  [@ASL\_v2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ASL_v2.0)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/231 "2022-11-04T03:20:50Z")
So… it’s a trap!
?
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### Author:  [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/232 "2022-11-04T03:33:01Z")
It’s a fully operational battle station.
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### Author:  [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/233 "2022-11-04T03:45:43Z")
> [@Ludovic](#):
>
> It’s a fully operational battle station.
>
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/234 "2022-11-04T03:59:46Z")
The local Russian command may not know what happens next.
Cite [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-3)
> [@](#):
>
> **Russian forces are continuing to withdraw some elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast, but it is still unclear if Russian forces will fight for Kherson City.** Kherson City occupation deputy Kirill Stremousov stated on November 3 that Russian forces “will most likely leave for the left (eastern) bank” of the Dnipro River urging civilians to evacuate from Kherson City “as quickly as possible.”[1] ISW has observed that Russian forces are continuing to prepare fallback positions on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River while continuing to set up defensive positions northwest of Kherson City and transporting additional mobilized forces there, despite Stremousov’s statement.[2] Some Russian elite units — such as airborne forces and naval infantry — are reportedly continuing to operate on the right (western) bank of the Dnipro River and their full withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast would be a clearer indicator that Russian forces will not fight for Kherson City or settlements on the right bank.[3] Stremousov also hypothesized about the probability of fighting in Kherson City and northern Kherson Oblast in the next two weeks, which may suggest that he anticipates some battles for Kherson City despite his comments about withdrawal.[4] Stremousov is also an unreliable source who has consistently issued contradictory statements and made emotional responses to events, and his public statements may be clouded by personal fears of losing his position within the occupation government.
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### Author:  [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/235 "2022-11-04T04:54:11Z")
I’m just WAGing here, but my prediction is that the Russians withdraw all the seasoned troops and leave a bunch of new draftees holding the Kherson bag. Then when there’s lots of Ukrainian troops in the city, they blow the dam.
So I’d think about not taking Kherson directly but rather taking the area around it (especially the dam) and leave it isolated. Then strongly encourage all its defenders to surrender.
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/236 "2022-11-04T05:44:25Z")
Seizing control of the dam seems like a top priority.
But, the Russians would expect it.
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### Author:  [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/237 "2022-11-04T12:31:09Z")
> [@dtilque](#):
>
> I’m just WAGing here, but my prediction is that the Russians withdraw all the seasoned troops and leave a bunch of new draftees holding the Kherson bag. Then when there’s lots of Ukrainian troops in the city, they blow the dam.
We know they’ve brought in several thousand mobiks to the west bank of Kherson. The conventional wisdom is that they’re intended to serve as a meat shield while seasoned troops and heavy equipment escape to the other side.
I have the feeling Rus. intends to try to replicate the Ukrainian strategy used in Sieverodonetsk, where the bridges were blown but they continued to supply light infantry holding the city via boats at night and force a house to house battle. This had the effect of making Russians attempting to enter the city take high casualties. From a Rus. standpoint they already know they’re going to lose Kherson and sustain the associated morale hit, so making it costly for Ukr. to achieve this will soften that blow and will have the added benefit of destroying the city and all it’s economic benefits too. If Rus. intends to do this they’re going to need some seasoned troops for the defense and not a bunch of demoralized draftees going through alcohol withdrawal.
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### Author:  [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/238 "2022-11-04T12:49:42Z")
Satellite and drone reconnaissance will be helpful in determining the Russian positions.
Is there any reason for Ukrainian troops to rush into entering the city?
Cut it off from supplies, cut the electricty into the city and let whoever is waiting get very cold and miserable.
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### Author:  [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/239 "2022-11-04T14:21:31Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> Cut it off from supplies, cut the electricty into the city and let whoever is waiting get very cold and miserable.
I’m sure the civilian population will enjoy that. Not sure if the Ukrainian forces will abandon their philosophy of freeing and aiding Ukrainian citizens.
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### Author:  [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2022, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/240 "2022-11-04T14:33:00Z")
> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> Seizing control of the dam seems like a top priority.
>
> But, the Russians would expect it.
If the Russians ever did plan to blow the damn, even as a last-minute contingency move, it should already be wired with explosives. So seizing it successfully will be very difficult.
But then we have to put in the Russian Incompetence Fudge Factor (RIFF). It’s entirely possible that none of them thought of this ahead of time, or they all figured it was someone else’s job while they were busy looting.
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