# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 126
**Author:** ![mordecaiB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mordecaib/32/7725_2.png) [@mordecaiB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mordecaiB)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2023, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2553 "2023-02-28T19:28:46Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > What if the war continues throughout 2023 to go as badly for Russia as it has been and Putin decides one way to _slip out the back, Jack_ is to announce he’s not running, and let the fallout for the war be the next guy’s problem? I’m not sure his ego will let him do that. I suspect he would need other pressure on him to go that route. > [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Had that guy been carrying 20kg of explosives, would it have normally exploded on crashing? Good question. I don’t know if drones are routinely armed at launch or if they are armed remotely. [This](https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/uj-22.htm) site says: > The drone is capable of carrying unguided aerial bombs on board to destroy enemy manpower and armored vehicles. The developers have improved the drop system, and now oerators can drop 82-mm mines from it. In addition to mines, the novelty is capable of having a camera and an optical-electronic station. > The drone can carry free-falling bombs - 82-mm mortar mines (4), the main parts of RPG-7 (6) or grenade launchers (Ukrjet development) adapted for dropping. The use of a drone increases the range of the latter to 150-200 km. Instead of weapons, the drone can take a camera on board. Maybe @smithsb can supply a bit more info. He seems to be up to date on weaponry. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2023, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2554 "2023-02-28T20:06:21Z")
Here’s an interesting article about the rumored Ukrainian spring offensive. The speculation is that it’s going to be in the south. Possibly an attack towards Melitopol from Zaporizhia? > **[Ukraine to ‘drive a wedge’ between Crimea and Russia in spring offensive](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/27/ukraine-drive-wedge-crimea-russia-spring-offensive/)** > > Top Kyiv intelligence official reveals part of forthcoming operation to retake Kremlin-occupied regions in the south That area hasn’t been mentioned much recently. My assumption that an offensive would be in the east, maybe to relieve the pressure on Bakhumut, or to try to liberate more of the Donbas. It certainly seems that Russia has been mostly focused on those areas. Maybe Russia made a mistake by doing so, potentially leaving the souther front exposed? An attack towards Melitopol would make sense, since it would isolate the areas west of there, limiting resupply to the route from Crimea. Ukraine could then liberate the rest of Kherson oblast and make it into a two front war. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2023, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2555 "2023-02-28T20:11:39Z")
I didn’t see the type of munitions in the description I found, thanks. With a range of 100 km, I thought it couldn’t return and they just loaded up with 20kg of explosive and intended to crash onto the target. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2023, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2556 "2023-02-28T20:39:57Z")
Map of Russian field fortifications (not exhaustive): > ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2023, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2557 "2023-02-28T21:16:52Z")
Are we speaking of a trench covered with pine logs, or a concrete blockhouse? ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2023, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2558 "2023-02-28T21:23:55Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Fog of war and all that. Russia claims to have shot down a Ukrainian drone or two deep in Russian territory – naturally “probably targeting civilian infrastructure”. So? Do stupid invasions, get stupid prizes. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2023, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2559 "2023-02-28T21:36:11Z")
The fuzes have to modified to work as free fall. Some of the safeties require setback as part of the arming process. The setback comes from launch forces; the propellant firing as the primer hits the firing pin when the mortar round is dropped down the tube or when the propellant charge is ignited in the RPG launcher - firing pin is triggered into the rocket motor primer. Here’s the PG-7VM hollow charge RPG round fuze function - [CAT-UXO - Vp 7m fuze](https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/fuzes/vp-7m-fuze). The pyrotechnic train provides safe separation distance and arms a self-destruct firing train. The fuze will/may have a safety cap, a removable before firing pin/wire with a ribbon. [https://kintex.bg/uploaded\_files/261.jpg](https://kintex.bg/uploaded_files/261.jpg) The mortar round will have a safety wire(s), a bore riding detonator block, and setback requirement to arm. The safety wires are removed before firing, setback releases a pin which allows the bore riding blocker to be ejected by a spring when the mortar exits the tube. Setback releases another internal pin which allows a spring powered clockwork mechanism to rotate a detonator below the impact firing pin. The clockwork mechanism slows the rotation (gear friction) to allow a safe arming distance. Typical picture: [82mm Mortar Round HE 82 FRAG - High Explosive Fragmentation Round - bulcomersks](https://bulcomersks.com/military-products/ammunition/mortar-rounds/82mm-mortar-round-he-82-frag/) The fuze: [Kintex : FUZES FOR MORTAR BOMBS AF66, AF67, AF61(FPDSQ1, M6),  AF62[FPDSQ2(M-6N)]  AND  AF64(M52-B3)](https://kintex.bg/product-4-83) How the Ukrainians modify the fuzes is the question. The safety pins/caps can be removed when loaded into the drone. For the mortar, setback can be crudely overcome (the propellant charges have been removed) by slamming the mortar round base first into something hard and flat (the fins have nubs which should prevent impact with the primer. You’ll hear the whir of the clockwork mechanism. I used to do this in my instructor days with a bare inert fuze right after lunch - got the students out of their food induce torpor as I passed the now armed inert fuzes around 😮 Further afield, there is a scene in Saving Private Ryan where Tom Hanks and others are slamming 60mm mortar rounds on their bases to arm them then throwing the mortars at the approaching enemy soldiers/vehicles. Me seeing movie, “Hole S\*&^, I used to do that in class.” How they get the RPG rounds ready for impact; I hope very carefully. I suspect they partially disassemble the fuze to remove the pyrotechnic delay/self destruct portion. Tripler (our EOD guy) may have more insight into this and corrections to any of my above blathering. Why didn’t they go off on crashing? They had to be armed at launch. Depends on how the drone crashed. Both mortar and RPG warheads are point detonating. If the drone slid in or went down vertically, the fuzes wouldn’t have impacted at the right angle to trigger the detonators. How far up in the drone they are carried (internal carriage) would also shield them from a direct impact on the nose (point). The rounds themselves are robust to withstand rough handling and launch forces. My two cents. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2560 "2023-03-01T01:49:31Z")
This type of fighting will cost a lot of lives for both armies. A Ukrainian counter offense may change the situation. I’m surprised that possibility wasn’t factored into this assessment. Guardian blog > [@](#): > > ## US does not expect significant Russian gains in the next year, says Pentagon official > > A senior Pentagon official has said the US did not expect Russia to make significant territorial gains in [Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) in the near term and described the frontlines of the war as a “grinding slog”. > > **Colin Kahl,** the US undersecretary of defence for policy, told a House of Representatives hearing today: > > > You may see small portions of territory change hands in the coming weeks and months. I do not think that there’s anything I see that suggests the Russians can sweep across Ukraine and make significant territorial gains anytime in the next year or so. > > Kahl was asked repeatedly by US lawmakers about sending the jets to Ukraine, Reuters reports. He replied: > > > It is a priority for the Ukrainians, but it is not one of their top three priorities. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2561 "2023-03-01T02:13:43Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > Once training is complete and the armor and other weapons systems promised by the West arrive, THEN we can expect to see an actual coordinated combined arms offensive. The M1 Abrams promised by the USA won’t arrive until the end of this year or early 2024. I don’t think Ukraine can wait that long to put some more numbers in the W column. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2562 "2023-03-01T03:18:41Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The M1 Abrams promised by the USA won’t arrive until the end of this year or early 2024. I don’t think Ukraine can wait that long to put some more numbers in the W column. M-1s perhaps may not get there for another year, but other tanks from allies are already beginning to arrive. Agreed they need a win or two in 2023. [Ukraine conflict: Leopard 2s begin to arrive, Sweden offers up to 10 of its own (janes.com)](https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ukraine-conflict-leopard-2s-begin-to-arrive-sweden-offers-up-to-10-of-its-own#:~:text=The%20first%20four%20Leopard%202%20main%20battle%20tanks,its%20website%20the%20evening%20of%20the%20same%20day.) ---
**Author:** ![mordecaiB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mordecaib/32/7725_2.png) [@mordecaiB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mordecaiB)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2563 "2023-03-01T08:06:02Z")
> [@smithsb](#): > > My two cents. Well worth the price! 🙂I knew we could count on your help on this. Thanks. This [link](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-drone-gets-within-70-miles-of-moscow) has some better pics of the drone. From the disturbed snow, it appears to have fallen straight down. No sign of it going in belly down and sliding across the snow. > Here are some pics of I assume is a smaller kamikaze type drone where you can see the plastic explosive and the ball bearing munitions. > ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2564 "2023-03-01T16:05:03Z")
Its impolite to Whizz over any country. 😃 > **[Wizz Air to suspend Moldova flights over airspace safety](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64792430)** > > The suspension, from 14 March, comes after a Russian missile crossed Moldovan skies. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2565 "2023-03-01T18:39:41Z")
There’s not much proof of any A-50 damage. It definitely wasn’t smashed. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/HnnAzqA-SxY/maxresdefault.jpg "Updates on the Drone Attacks at Machulishchy Air Base in Belarus (Satellite Images) and Tuapse Oil") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnnAzqA-SxY) ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2566 "2023-03-01T18:56:07Z")
It is certainly more dirty. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2567 "2023-03-01T19:03:19Z")
[Belarus and China are both heavily in favor of peace in Ukraine](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64809777)-though they don’t seem to say what “peace” would look like afterward. I wouldn’t trust either of 'em in this case. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2568 "2023-03-01T19:19:05Z")
Doesn’t China’s plan involve Russia keeping the territory it occupies in Ukraine? ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2569 "2023-03-01T19:23:49Z")
Yeah, not much of a peace plan from Ukraine’s PoV. “Russia gets to keep all the land they stole and pinky-swear to not want any more.” ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2570 "2023-03-01T19:28:41Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Doesn’t China’s plan involve Russia keeping the territory it occupies in Ukraine? Not according to Point 1: > [@](#): > > 1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. Universally recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, must be strictly observed. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld. All countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, are equal members of the international community. All parties should jointly uphold the basic norms governing international relations and defend international fairness and justice. Equal and uniform application of international law should be promoted, while double standards must be rejected. > **[China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis](https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html)** > > China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis [link is to Chinese Foreign Ministry] ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2571 "2023-03-01T19:43:54Z")
The Chinese proposal doesn’t say anything about prosecuting war crimes of course as that would open a rather large can of worms for their own leadership. Meanwhile the Ukrainian government are signalling loudly that they are about to start an offensive > **[Zelensky and His War Room Are Signaling an Imminent Spring Offensive](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13695)** > > Ukrainian officials are done concealing plans for a major spring offensive led by NATO-trained troops armed with Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2023, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/2572 "2023-03-01T19:48:45Z")
Why would they announce an attack? Don’t armies not want the enemy know they are going to attack? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=125) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=127)