# Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [October 29, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972 "2022-10-29T17:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 186
**Author:** ![Seanette](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/seanette/32/9139_2.png) [@Seanette](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seanette)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3789 "2023-05-04T00:17:58Z")
> [@gnoitall](#): > > Maybe a false flag would allow the Russians enough cover to start “retaliatory” attacks in kind. If I was parsing post-drone photos of the Kremlin dome correctly, the “damage” is minimal at best (a few messed-up roof tiles was all the damage apparent to me). Reads to me like theater for propaganda purposes by people who didn’t want to do any actual damage in the process of putting on their show of victimhood and being in danger. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3790 "2023-05-04T00:21:35Z")
And just why was someone taking video of the Kremlin in the wee hours, at just the right time and angle to show the purported attack? ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3791 "2023-05-04T00:22:46Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > Ilya Ponomarev According to this article, a Johns Hopkins professor AKA expert says that Ponomarev can sometimes engage in “fantasy” when it comes to the existence of anti-Putin forces in Russia: > **[Meet the Russian exile 'trying' to overthrow Vladimir Putin](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/10/19/ukraine-war-meet-the-russian-exile-trying-to-overthrow-vladimir-putin)** > > Ilya Ponomarev says he is the spokesman of the National Republican Army, which claims to have been behind the car bomb that murdered Darya Dugina, the daughter of ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin. #UncoveringEurope Maybe the word fantasy is unfair. But I don’t understand why anti-regime forces would do something requiring such major planning and effort when they couldn’t have thought Putin would be there, and the chances of getting any specific villain was low. Also, I can’t get out of my mind that getting so close, and then utterly failing, fits extremely well with the false flag hypothesis. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3792 "2023-05-04T00:25:06Z")
So, fantasy freedom fighter tries to latch onto the story for his own ends? Makes sense. Still think the likeliest answer is false flag, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3793 "2023-05-04T00:40:04Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > And just why was someone taking video of the Kremlin in the wee hours, at just the right time and angle to show the purported attack? I think the video is of the second drone. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3794 "2023-05-04T00:40:20Z")
That actually does make sense. That and the guys on the roof. There were actually two drones, and the video is of the second. The first was burning on the opposite side of the dome (visible in other videos). It had struck about 15 minutes earlier, long enough for some people to get up there to put out the fire. Also not so long that people wouldn’t still be pointing cameras at the dome. ---
**Author:** ![Seanette](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/seanette/32/9139_2.png) [@Seanette](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seanette)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3795 "2023-05-04T00:42:20Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > And just why was someone taking video of the Kremlin in the wee hours, at just the right time and angle to show the purported attack? Good point. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3796 "2023-05-04T00:47:04Z")
[Here is the post](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3770) in this thread that shows videos of both drones. The video of the first one is by a fixed surveillance camera. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3797 "2023-05-04T01:01:56Z")
Best collection of actual information on the attack is here: > Goes through all the videos and picks them apart. Does not engage in any speculation. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3798 "2023-05-04T01:41:41Z")
The dome, or the flag on the dome, appear to have been the target. I’m not an explosives expert, but, given the video of the roof of the dome burning, I’m guessing it might have been incendiary material. If it was not the Russians, then it’s very embarrassing that two drones coming from different directions, fifteen minutes apart, were able to penetrate to the most secure location in Russia. What air defense doing? ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3799 "2023-05-04T01:50:29Z")
ISW provides some thoughtful analysis of the Kremlin attack. There’s more information at the link. I speculate Russia will soon draft even more people to fight this war. Link [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2023) > [@](#): > > **Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience and set conditions for a wider societal mobilization.** Several indicators suggest that the strike was internally conducted and purposefully staged. Russian authorities have recently taken steps to increase Russian domestic air defense capabilities, including within Moscow itself, and it is therefore extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera. Geolocated imagery from January 2023 shows that Russian authorities have been placing Pantsir air defense systems near Moscow to create air defense circles around the city.[4] A strike that avoided detection and destruction by such air defense assets and succeeded in hitting as high-profile of a target as the Kremlin Senate Palace would be a significant embarrassment for Russia. The Kremlin’s immediate, coherent, and coordinated response to the incident suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment. The Kremlin immediately accused Ukraine of conducting a terror attack, and Russian official responses coalesced rapidly around this accusation.[5] If the drone attack had not been internally staged it would have been a surprise event. It is very likely that the official Russian response would initially have been much more disorganized as Russian officials scrambled to generate a coherent narrative and offset the rhetorical implications of a clear informational embarrassment. The Kremlin has notably failed to generate a timely and coherent informational response to other military humiliations not of its own making, including the falls of Balakliya and Kherson City in September and November 2022. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3800 "2023-05-04T02:00:53Z")
Maybe Putin looked at his role model’s playbook and decided to continue his parody by creating a Reichstag fire-esque situation. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3801 "2023-05-04T02:24:47Z")
Or it could have been orchestrated by the Wagner Group. Vlad _has_ been pissing them off lately. All we have to do is play _Ride of the Valkyries_ to the video and see if it lines up. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3802 "2023-05-04T05:19:25Z")
US official says Ukrainians deny it was them: > ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3803 "2023-05-04T07:49:18Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > This is the part that makes me think all this “false flag” business is silly. Russia has its war, and in a war, you attack the enemy. You don’t need to find an excuse. You use false flags _to get into a war_. After you’re in, you’re in it. Except when the populace is lukewarm on the subject… This might be a very awkward attempt to get the common Russia to rally 'round the flag and get enthused about this war. The meatgrinder always needs more meat. Of course, it could have been someone else, for some other reason. > [@Horatius](#): > > Imagine if Mexico droned the White House, how would Americans react? “How TF did _that_ happen?!?” Imagine if someone drove a large airplane into the side of the Pentagon - how did the US react? > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > A team with enough sophistication to get a drone right over such a sensitive spot would have known that. I’m not sure there’s a lot of sophistication required. Drones are small, slow, and not very noticeable compared to larger aircraft, although obviously the larger you get the less this is true. If you can launch from somewhere relatively nearby it’s probably not that hard to do, and you’ll already be inside some of the air defenses if you can launch from close to the Kremlin itself. > [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > What air defense doing? Ever notice how “air defense” isn’t set off by random birds flying around? Although they look different and sound different many drones are about the same size as birds on radar, which doesn’t actually see or hear anything the way people do. I don’t know the details on the exact size and speed of the drones used in this event, but small enough and slow enough their radar profile could be ambiguous enough that defenses weren’t triggered until someone could actually see one of the drones. Yes, this has some scary implications for everyone everywhere. The saving grace is that the smaller drones most likely to get away with this sort of thing also have a very limited ability to carry anything that would do damage. Larger unmanned vehicles piloted from the other side of the planet carrying serious munitions - yes, those require “sophistication”. Not the smaller ones used by hobbyists. Which latter have been common in this conflict. Sure, they might carry a grenade, but while a grenade is deadly to a soft, squishy human it won’t have much effect on a large building. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3804 "2023-05-04T10:51:17Z")
So they were caught with their Pantsir down? (Sorry, I know we’ve covered air defense, but it was circling in my head and I had to get it out.) [The Kremlin thinks the Ukrainians did it with the support of the U.S.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/5/4/russia-ukraine-live-news-blasts-heard-in-kyiv-alerts-in-cities) ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3805 "2023-05-04T11:48:47Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Larger unmanned vehicles piloted from the other side of the planet carrying serious munitions - yes, those require “sophistication”. Not the smaller ones used by hobbyists. Which latter have been common in this conflict. Sure, they might carry a grenade, but while a grenade is deadly to a soft, squishy human it won’t have much effect on a large building. I did assume it was something approaching a military drone that could actually make the distance from Ukraine. But checking news reports, I find no mention of a drone model name or number. Are you thinking that Putin claims the Ukrainians tried to kill him with an expensive toy I could buy on Amazon? If that is it, do we even know that there was an explosive in the drone? Might the bright light have all been from the exploisive in whatever shot it down? If a Russian provocation, using a picture-taking hobbyist gadget would reduce the chance of damaging a historic Kremlin building. ---
**Author:** ![Si\_Amigo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/si_amigo/32/2877_2.png) [@Si\_Amigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Si_Amigo)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3806 "2023-05-04T11:52:14Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Imagine if someone drove a large airplane into the side of the Pentagon - how did the US react? This is more like someone landing a small plane on the White House lawn post 911. [https://www.cnn.com/2015/04/15/politics/aircraft-lands-on-capitol-grounds/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2015/04/15/politics/aircraft-lands-on-capitol-grounds/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3807 "2023-05-04T12:38:25Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > And just why was someone taking video of the Kremlin in the wee hours, at just the right time and angle to show the purported attack? Yes. This occurred to me as well. Having the camera centered at just the right moment and angle to capture the drone at that moment does seem rather…serendipitous. As I explained above, I’m still skeptical of a false flag for the reasons already mentioned, but can see how one could find plausibility in the false flag theory. Personally, I suspect the perpetrators are Russian dissidents, and not Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Sauron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce7236/32.png) [@Sauron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sauron)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2023, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972/3808 "2023-05-04T13:12:37Z")
The fact that Russia has blamed the U.S. along with Ukraine for the drone “attack” makes me believe even more it’s a false-flag operation. There’s not a good end to this war for Russia, and Putin is doing whatever he can to maintain support and control. Blaming the U.S. for an attack on the Kremlin lets him double down on his “existential threat” mantra to the Russian populace: “See, those terrible Americans are attacking us! We have to defeat them, and the best way to do that is by obliterating Ukraine! That’s why I’ve decided to draft another 500,000 ‘volunteers.’” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=185) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-2/973972.md?page=187)